Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser
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Yep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.Looking at radar Baw Baw is screwed
I have seen this before too many times.
I hope Baw Baw have a big tarp to put over those snow piles. Thankfully the stuff from the SFs seems to be very rain-hardy.
Moderate fire danger? Must be super dry snow.Can’t recall to many forecasts, forecasting heavy snow for Jindabyne. But where can you find a forecast with both heavy snow and “low-moderate” fire danger? I hate to think what it take to get a low fire danger.
Yep I can see the logic over the coming day or so but not Tommoz night into Thursday IMO. but who knows, she might surprise us
Wed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.
Buller temp profile looks like this:
850mb (1360m) +4°C
700mb (2260m) -4°C
500mb (5500m) -19°C
With all things considered; 40 knots at resort level, mod-heavy falls; (IMO) that'll put snow to 1550/1600m at best. Things deteriorate from 5-7pm there (precip & temps increase) IMO.
FFWD to Thursday 0400hrs AXS-C and you have lighter precip rates and more marginal uppers. So I'd be expecting showery drizzle to resort level from the get-go Thursday.
Doesn't look pretty after Wed eve, but hope this helps clarify.
700 hPa should be closer to circa 2930 metres height for that period.
Wasn’t nervous about driving down to Talbingo from Sydney tomorrow until I read this! Heading home same day… slow and steady is how I see tomorrow… but it’s very exciting to see those maps… I can’t remember seeing anything like it in a long time!So reading that there will be some rain from later tomorrow esp for Vic, do people think this system is net gain or are we back to grass @Buller by Friday?
Wow! It’s easier to colour the non-snowy areas in Southern NSW?
Holy crap...I hope this happens.
Possibly the Best QB start in NSW - for a few years?
Yeah. If it comes off it'll be great. I do wonder if there will be snow low enough to settle for even a short while in ACT north of the ranges. I wouldn't know about QB in NSW since I only moved up here after that time last year. The last time I saw any Vic resort on QB weekend the snow was less than memorable.Wow! It’s easier to colour the non-snowy areas in Southern NSW?
Possibly the Best QB start in NSW - for a few years?
Hard to say as there’s no consolidated base to support it but I think a net gain in the 10-15cm realm, by Friday.
Won’t look great.Axs-c still holding firm for the sweep in from the ocean to start this afternoon.
Fall more bullish than 12z EC.
Which has the bulk of the moisture south of the Alps.
Reflected in Yr.no numbers.
That picture is in line with what Jane is saying for Perisher. Moisture downgradeEC.
Compare the market...
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Which is wrong.That picture is in line with what Jane is saying for Perisher. Moisture downgrade
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IMO.
I don't bet against AXS-C
I look out my window here in Bondi, out to sea, and the clouds streaming down the Coast southbound is moisture due in the mountains this arvo. Fun fact.
Well I know its going to rain later today in west Gippsland , less biblically than east Gippsland but my weather zone app says today I should expect 8e+1 mm of rain !!!
She's a meteo so I'd expect she uses it but NOT in those plots, it's all EC. Doubt it'd be worth her while building an aggregate model outlook.
FWIW OCF outlook siding with AXS-C for today (next 24)
Our Snow Report is LIVE for 2021
https://www.skyweather.com.au/video/6257964336001
yr.no getting excited about Saturday now... marginal temps I'm guessing:
AXS-C still holding the fort for the heaviest stuff after sundown for NSW.
Which shouldn't be a shock. Prime time.
BOM are now saying snow and not R**N for Hotham .
Ditto for the EC.
Mt Hotham snow forecast by Meteorologist Jane Bunn
Weather and snow report for Mt Hotham, Victoria from Jane Bunn. Forecasts using the ECMWF "the Euro" model - the most accurate weather source.www.janebunn.net
Looking at the indicators, Geez this is looking pretty dam Good for tonight. Been max 8c all data sea level.
Looking beyond this date it looks like an epic June period.
The next 360 hrs is all negative anomalies for 500 Hpa Temps & Pressure at GFS, CMC, and ECMWF.
AXS-C showing another 15-20mm for NSW Resorts over the next 24:
Yeah not looking good for bawbs! Unless by a miracle the temp drops a couple of degrees, but I’m not sure that’s to likely tonight?I predict Baw Baw will have no snow..
IMO, Late-Friday, through Saturday is looking like a revisit for the cold pool.
Should bring 10-15cm of snow above 1600m in NSW resorts, whilst 5-10cm of new snow above 1600m for Vic resorts.
So weren’t we just discussing if this will make the top?
will it by flip time?
So another 20-30cm for the MR and Higher parts of Resorts Saturday.
Punt. Snowlevel of 1500.
It won't make itSo weren’t we just discussing if this will make the top?
will it by flip time?
Saturday will be very marginal IMO.Perisher for the next 3 days. EPIC! Bring on the weekend.
See the bullseye to the west of Berridale?
Thats Varneys.
More chaos to come.Last edited:
Varneys Range is west of Berridale on the road to Jindabyne. A bit under 1100 m on the road.- Status
