Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser

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Kletterer

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TCCW values - Full Tropopause Height .
modez_20210608_1100_animation.gif
 

Dave Clark

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Looking at radar Baw Baw is screwed :( I have seen this before too many times.

Screenshot at Jun 08 19-43-56.png
Yep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.

I hope Baw Baw have a big tarp to put over those snow piles. Thankfully the stuff from the SFs seems to be very rain-hardy.
 

doogasnow

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Yep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.

I hope Baw Baw have a big tarp to put over those snow piles. Thankfully the stuff from the SFs seems to be very rain-hardy.
Yep I can see the logic over the coming day or so but not Tommoz night into Thursday IMO. but who knows, she might surprise us
 

POW Hungry

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Yep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.

I hope Baw Baw have a big tarp to put over those snow piles. Thankfully the stuff from the SFs seems to be very rain-hardy.
Wed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.
Buller temp profile looks like this:
850mb (1360m) +4°C
700mb (2260m) -4°C
500mb (5500m) -19°C

With all things considered; 40 knots at resort level, mod-heavy falls; (IMO) that'll put snow to 1550/1600m at best. Things deteriorate from 5-7pm there (precip & temps increase) IMO.

FFWD to Thursday 0400hrs AXS-C and you have lighter precip rates and more marginal uppers. So I'd be expecting showery drizzle to resort level from the get-go Thursday.
Doesn't look pretty after Wed eve, but hope this helps clarify.
 

Dave Clark

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Wed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.
Buller temp profile looks like this:
850mb (1360m) +4°C
700mb (2260m) -4°C
500mb (5500m) -19°C

With all things considered; 40 knots at resort level, mod-heavy falls; (IMO) that'll put snow to 1550/1600m at best. Things deteriorate from 5-7pm there (precip & temps increase) IMO.

FFWD to Thursday 0400hrs AXS-C and you have lighter precip rates but more marginal uppers. So I'd be expecting showery drizzle to resort level from the get-go Thursday.
Doesn't look pretty after Wed eve, but hope this helps clarify.
Thanks. I hope those 40 knots are downwards LOL
 
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Kletterer

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Wed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.
Buller temp profile looks like this:
850mb (1360m) +4°C
700mb (2260m) -4°C
500mb (5500m) -19°C

With all things considered; 40 knots at resort level, mod-heavy falls; (IMO) that'll put snow to 1550/1600m at best. Things deteriorate from 5-7pm there (precip & temps increase) IMO.

FFWD to Thursday 0400hrs AXS-C and you have lighter precip rates and more marginal uppers. So I'd be expecting showery drizzle to resort level from the get-go Thursday.
Doesn't look pretty after Wed eve, but hope this helps clarify.
700 hPa should be closer to circa 2930 metres height for that period.
 

Megs

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Wasn’t nervous about driving down to Talbingo from Sydney tomorrow until I read this! Heading home same day… slow and steady is how I see tomorrow… but it’s very exciting to see those maps… I can’t remember seeing anything like it in a long time!
 
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Kletterer

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Wasn’t nervous about driving down to Talbingo from Sydney tomorrow until I read this! Heading home same day… slow and steady is how I see tomorrow… but it’s very exciting to see those maps… I can’t remember seeing anything like it in a long time!
Should be no worries from Tumut. Could be a challenge from the Kiandra side.
 

MickM

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So reading that there will be some rain from later tomorrow esp for Vic, do people think this system is net gain or are we back to grass @Buller by Friday?
 

stridercdh

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Wow! It’s easier to colour the non-snowy areas in Southern NSW? ;)

Possibly the Best QB start in NSW - for a few years?
Yeah. If it comes off it'll be great. I do wonder if there will be snow low enough to settle for even a short while in ACT north of the ranges. I wouldn't know about QB in NSW since I only moved up here after that time last year. The last time I saw any Vic resort on QB weekend the snow was less than memorable.
 
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POW Hungry

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So reading that there will be some rain from later tomorrow esp for Vic, do people think this system is net gain or are we back to grass @Buller by Friday?
Hard to say as there’s no consolidated base to support it but I think a net gain in the 10-15cm realm, by Friday.

Won’t look great.
 
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skimax

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Well I know its going to rain later today in west Gippsland , less biblically than east Gippsland but my weather zone app says today I should expect 8e+1 mm of rain !!!
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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