Yep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.Looking at radar Baw Baw is screwedI have seen this before too many times.
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Moderate fire danger? Must be super dry snow.Can’t recall to many forecasts, forecasting heavy snow for Jindabyne. But where can you find a forecast with both heavy snow and “low-moderate” fire danger? I hate to think what it take to get a low fire danger.
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Yep I can see the logic over the coming day or so but not Tommoz night into Thursday IMO. but who knows, she might surprise usYep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.
I hope Baw Baw have a big tarp to put over those snow piles. Thankfully the stuff from the SFs seems to be very rain-hardy.
Wed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.Yep that's why I don't understand all these folks calling 800 / 1100 / 1300m in Vic on Thu, it's just not there. This whacky system is a shemozzle for Vic and we'd be better off without it.
I hope Baw Baw have a big tarp to put over those snow piles. Thankfully the stuff from the SFs seems to be very rain-hardy.
Thanks. I hope those 40 knots are downwardsWed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.
Buller temp profile looks like this:
850mb (1360m) +4°C
700mb (2260m) -4°C
500mb (5500m) -19°C
With all things considered; 40 knots at resort level, mod-heavy falls; (IMO) that'll put snow to 1550/1600m at best. Things deteriorate from 5-7pm there (precip & temps increase) IMO.
FFWD to Thursday 0400hrs AXS-C and you have lighter precip rates but more marginal uppers. So I'd be expecting showery drizzle to resort level from the get-go Thursday.
Doesn't look pretty after Wed eve, but hope this helps clarify.
700 hPa should be closer to circa 2930 metres height for that period.Wed 1900 hrs AXS-C hi-res has a period of sustained mod-heavy falls.
Buller temp profile looks like this:
850mb (1360m) +4°C
700mb (2260m) -4°C
500mb (5500m) -19°C
With all things considered; 40 knots at resort level, mod-heavy falls; (IMO) that'll put snow to 1550/1600m at best. Things deteriorate from 5-7pm there (precip & temps increase) IMO.
FFWD to Thursday 0400hrs AXS-C and you have lighter precip rates and more marginal uppers. So I'd be expecting showery drizzle to resort level from the get-go Thursday.
Doesn't look pretty after Wed eve, but hope this helps clarify.
Yeah, red wine.700 hPa should be closer to circa 2930 metres height for that period.
Should be no worries from Tumut. Could be a challenge from the Kiandra side.Wasn’t nervous about driving down to Talbingo from Sydney tomorrow until I read this! Heading home same day… slow and steady is how I see tomorrow… but it’s very exciting to see those maps… I can’t remember seeing anything like it in a long time!
Wow! It’s easier to colour the non-snowy areas in Southern NSW?![]()
Holy crap...I hope this happens.
Yeah. If it comes off it'll be great. I do wonder if there will be snow low enough to settle for even a short while in ACT north of the ranges. I wouldn't know about QB in NSW since I only moved up here after that time last year. The last time I saw any Vic resort on QB weekend the snow was less than memorable.Wow! It’s easier to colour the non-snowy areas in Southern NSW?
Possibly the Best QB start in NSW - for a few years?
Hard to say as there’s no consolidated base to support it but I think a net gain in the 10-15cm realm, by Friday.So reading that there will be some rain from later tomorrow esp for Vic, do people think this system is net gain or are we back to grass @Buller by Friday?
That picture is in line with what Jane is saying for Perisher. Moisture downgradeEC.
Compare the market...
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Which is wrong.That picture is in line with what Jane is saying for Perisher. Moisture downgrade
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Which is wrong.
IMO.
I don't bet against AXS-C
I think she is just EC from what others have said in the past.Does Jane pay for access to AXS? ie: can she use it in her modelling?
She's a meteo so I'd expect she uses it but NOT in those plots, it's all EC. Doubt it'd be worth her while building an aggregate model outlook.Does Jane pay for access to AXS? ie: can she use it in her modelling?
Yeah not looking good for bawbs! Unless by a miracle the temp drops a couple of degrees, but I’m not sure that’s to likely tonight?I predict Baw Baw will have no snow..![]()
Yep its a done deal sadly ...Yeah not looking good for bawbs! Unless by a miracle the temp drops a couple of degrees, but I’m not sure that’s to likely tonight?
It won't make itSo weren’t we just discussing if this will make the top?
will it by flip time?
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Shattered dreamsLM and BB have been trashed by R*** and wind.The snow up there is no more :-(.
Saturday will be very marginal IMO.Perisher for the next 3 days. EPIC! Bring on the weekend.
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Tinderries will be loaded.
Varneys Range is west of Berridale on the road to Jindabyne. A bit under 1100 m on the road.See the bullseye to the west of Bredbo?
Thats Varneys.
More chaos to come.
I meant Berridale.Varneys Range is west of Berridale on the road to Jindabyne. A bit under 1100 m on the road.