Predictions 7-9th Nov - The Winter Bounce Back System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Oct 30, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong polar system looks to play into the lap of SE Aus affecting Tas,Vic & NSW in this date range.

    EC really putting foot to floor with a growing trend in the last 3-4 runs.
    A very good chance of snow accumulations of 30-40cm on MR, with falls down to anomalous elevations for November.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Ensembles backing it/EC:
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC run at this point is around 25cm.

    Noting the wider synoptics, this will probably get 20-50cm for the Main Range if EC stays on trend
    [​IMG]
    The EC Run thinks it’s cold enough for snow for the Otways and Strzeleckis, as well as Ballarat and surrounds.

    [​IMG]

    Probably worth noting that GFS isn’t on side, and that Spring typically has lower verification for long term forecasts. But the trend is there.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 Simple plots for same hour on EC show promise of temp + precip = snow.
     
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  5. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is there a chance of one more rocker hopper day on XC skis during this Nov.7-9th period?.I am ready to rock hop at Baw Baw or somewhere else if it is viable.I could even consider a mad dash from Melb. to C.Pass if it is looking worth it.
     
  6. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Targa at Buller should be interesting......
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didn’t it snow for it a few years back?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2016, yep.

    EC 00z, via Weatherzone Layers; stunning meridonal amplitude on it.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This morning EC 12z run has pulled back a bit.
    Whilst GFS has buried its nose in it, with a big upgrade.
    #midrangewobbles
     
  10. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    North and East NSW bushfire generator at this time of year :-(
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Way too ridgey with the low too far east ...
    Its not a thing IMO
     
  12. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Waiting for 4 Day RuleTM to kick in.
     
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  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm getting a wee bit sick of fine and sunny midweek then pissing rain every Saturday... Keep that shit for July and August and then **** off with ya!
     
    #13 mick chopps, Oct 31, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2019
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  14. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep that’s potentially 4 shit Saturdays in a row.
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    this weekend will be the worst. Saturday is full washout, 15mm+ plus. No golf for you or you get the sticks out in the rain? hopefully this above abomination ridges out to not much.
     
  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big comp this weekend & the place is looking mint in the lead up to the Pres Cup. Golf only gets washed out if there’s lightning or if there’s standing water on the greens, but I’ll be inside well before that.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    18Z GFS remains stoic. Still a long way off but fwiw here is a Skewy for 10 pm 7th- Thredbo. Solid DGZ
     
  18. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm departing Charlotte's Pass on Sunday 10th for a Summit to Sea trip - How low will the snow line be?
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a bit far out to say atm. Models need to settle a bit more yet. Ground cover also depends on how much loss this weekend brings. Stay tuned here.
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Substantial downgrade on EC.
     
  21. KimP

    KimP Hard Yards

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    It snowed on the 6th last year....
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC and GFS in harmony this morning on the 12z run.
    EC


    GFS
     
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Mount Kosicuiszko:


    For Buller:


    Looks like a 15-35cm system IMO.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    The Modelling for Hot Ham at 1650 metres ASL i.e JB Hut and for the BHP/ Falls Creek shows 14 cms of snow is expected on Friday. The next day will be cold and 4 more cms will fall. I can sense a rock hopper trip coming up next weekend i.e drive up Friday and rock hop on Sat. on the Big Spur XC trails. I will have to pack the wheel chains for the car with the rock hoppers.
    http://www.janebunn.net/falls-creek
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Friday's 00z run.
    Sub-1000m snowfalls on the mainland still looking highly possible.
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am already planning to drive up on Friday next week and rock hop at Falls or Hot Ham on Sat . Nov. 9th!
     
  29. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks @POW_hungry - how quickly will it warn up again afterwards you think? The heat over West WA get pulled over us again around the 12th?
     
  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    My plan is to rock hop early on Sat. at Falls or Hot Ham before whatever snow there is turns to slush.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Likely to warm quickly with the structure of that ridge.
    Back into the 20's on the 11th for most parts of Vic IMO.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keep it on topic of weather - inline with thread title.
    Plans and aspirations can be shared in Snow Talk
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC showing good duration this evening.
    144 hours out and looking healthy.
     
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  34. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kosciuszko?

    Certainly looks like the Bureau is into it, not as heavy as models see it though.
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12 Z staying on trend
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    The automated modelling has now backed away from predicting what seemed like a skiable amount of snow. It now looks less exciting.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC remaining steady on the 00z runs, with a sub-1000mb system extending over the Aus mainland Alps:
    [​IMG]
     
  40. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bugger off, winter!

    Going to cancel my trip now...
     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  42. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I recall a Sydney summer with 11 wet weekends in a row. I was living on the north shore at the time. We could all understand the term "Going Troppo."
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ground cooler coming along nicely.
    Sub-1000 MSLP over the alps.
    Kidney shaped high hasn't budged a bit in last few runs. 20-40cm on the main range IMO.
    Lock it in.
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z:
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Vic are rightfully enthusiastic about Thurs-Sat.
    IMO Vic resorts should do well, including Buller.
    Buller:
     
  46. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don’t really want. Prefer to watch the broom brooms.
     
  47. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    The modelling is now doubling the estimated amount of snow predicted to fall at Hot Ham. This could be amazing or just a novelty in terms of XC skiing in VIC. in NOV.
    Other Vic . ski locations will do well too.....
    Falls Creek and Baw Baw and even Lake Mtn. will get some spring love too.
    http://www.janebunn.net/falls-creek
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling

    All Rock Hopper -able. This is looking good . The ski season is not over until it is over!
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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