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Predictions 7-9th Nov - The Winter Bounce Back System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Oct 30, 2019.

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  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Impressive Temps at 500 hPa . The year of Anomalies rolls on.
     
    #51 Kletterer, Nov 4, 2019
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Meridonial mayhem up at Jetstream levels. A wicked set up even for Winter let alone November.
     
    #52 Kletterer, Nov 4, 2019
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  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    All looking very dry though other than the initial front - when yr.no has a solid burst of precip before drying out as the cold comes through.
     
    #53 rocketboy, Nov 4, 2019
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has good mid level Integrated Water Vapour Transport and Rel Humidity @ 850 hPa on the back end at this stage. An embedded trough developing could milk some more juice out of it.
     
    #54 Kletterer, Nov 4, 2019
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS 00Z looking solid with a suggestion of dual pulses
     
    #55 Kletterer, Nov 4, 2019
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  6. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest BoM 4 day MSLP showing embedded goodness from Thursday...and dat southerly fetch late Friday.....bang!
     
    #56 WarrandyteWX, Nov 4, 2019
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  7. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Targa High Country tarmac rally race is on Friday-Sunday. The event is based out of Mt Buller Village. They can cancel or shorten the stages that run up the mountain. The majority of the stages are down lower, and will be wet but ok. However, all the competitors, service crew, officials etc stay in the village. It will make an “interesting event”. Will be chaos with people trying to get car transporters, trailers and rally cars up to the village:eek:

    How much snow is likely to be on the ground village level Buller?
     
    #57 robbo mcs, Nov 4, 2019
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  8. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    #58 WarrandyteWX, Nov 4, 2019
  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-buller
     
    #59 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 4, 2019
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-40cm for the Vic High Country & NSW MR, IMO.
     
    #60 POW_hungry, Nov 4, 2019
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What month is it again?LOL
     
    #61 POW_hungry, Nov 4, 2019
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just reviewed latest runs for this arvo.
    EC's 00z run has rationalised for the 7th so I think it'll now be more like 15-30cm now. Should be reflected in BoM's output tomorrow arvo.
     
    #62 POW_hungry, Nov 4, 2019
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  13. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This seems all very Vic only. Barely a pulse left in it by the time it gets to MtK - letalone anywhere further north.
     
    #63 rocketboy, Nov 4, 2019
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    At least it should be colder than Buller and BB that get the brunt of the precip. A solid 10-20cm.
     
    #64 Jellybeans, Nov 4, 2019
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  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #65 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 5, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
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  16. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    GFS forecast sounding for Cooma. Snow for Jindy IMO
     
    #66 Snowmaker7, Nov 5, 2019
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  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #67 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 5, 2019
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whilst it might be yesterday's run it does bear good fruit:
     
    #68 POW_hungry, Nov 5, 2019
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's WATL prog for Friday:
     
    #69 POW_hungry, Nov 5, 2019
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little divergence between EC and GFS for this system tonight/tomorrow. With GFS indicating cooler/more moist westerly flow, yielding more snowfall for NSW.
    EC still favouring Vic.
    Can’t help but see GFS with the edge on temps and moisture tonight and tomorrow.

    GFS early tomorrow AM:

    The real fun start Friday though.
     
    #70 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC coming back around for the MR on the 12Z run.
    Looking much more like GFS & BoM's WATL prog this AM.
    Still packing 15-30cm above 1700m IMO.
     
    #71 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good supply of embedded troughs, which ordinarily equates to > 5-10mm:
     
    #72 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO Jindy will see a snow/sago shower late Friday night, early Saturday.
     
    #73 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
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  24. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #74 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 6, 2019
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seriously Winter, **** off!
     
    #75 mick chopps, Nov 6, 2019
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  26. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spring is the shittest season of the year.

    In order of preference:

    Autumn
    Winter
    Summer
    Spring
     
    #76 CarveMan, Nov 6, 2019
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  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good spring is amazing. Bad spring (like this one) is just ****ing annoying. And to be clear, this is only a bad spring because it's 6 weeks too late to be of any use. If this was happening in mid/late September then we'd all be doing backflips!

    Seriously winter, **** off.

    Autumn is the worst season. Spare me your pretty colourful leaves, you are entirely redundant. Too mild to snow, not hot enough to beach. Meh. Nothing season is nothing.
     
    #77 mick chopps, Nov 6, 2019
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  28. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ll fight you in the BBQ thread.
     
    #78 CarveMan, Nov 6, 2019
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  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come at me
     
    #79 mick chopps, Nov 6, 2019
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mount Kosciuszko yr.no

    It’s certainly doing better with the wind upgrade with up to 30-40cm above 1800-1900m. Let’s see if that holds.

    Best periods for snowfall
    1. Thursday morning, falls to 1200m in Southern Vic. 1500m in NSW resorts.
    2. From mid-late arvo on Friday, temps drop. Down to potentially around 800m. Needs a shower or two to come through as it is mostly dry however.
    3. Saturday afternoon to evening looks like it could bring down some decent snow down to 1200-1400m.
     
    #80 Jellybeans, Nov 6, 2019
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  31. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Autumn is actually the best time to beach
     
    #81 W0nkey D0nkey, Nov 6, 2019
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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll join CM
    Autumn is awesome. Warmest water, offshores , swell.

    *obviously not in Victoria
     
    #82 Donzah, Nov 6, 2019
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  33. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing on the Perisher cams at the mo
     
    #83 Swiss, Nov 6, 2019
  34. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    #84 Swiss, Nov 6, 2019
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  35. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like spring for the variety. Look at Melb this week, 14 one day, 30 not too far behind and some good precip around as well.
     
    #85 Luken, Nov 6, 2019
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  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Autumn is good for depositing BC supply drops that you don't end up using during the ski season . Plus in Autumn the surf /swell improves and most people desert the beaches. March is good for bushwalking with clear sunny days. Now back to the topic at hand....
     
    #86 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 6, 2019
  37. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Puking on Thredbo Live cam and nice flakes coming down on Blue Cow Live
     
    #87 Jacko4650, Nov 6, 2019
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  38. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    White precipitation on The Taswegian cams now 4:20pm - all melted elsewhere.
     
    #88 Jacko4650, Nov 6, 2019
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  39. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Thredbo BOM looking juicy.

    I'll be down there the following weekend, from the 15th, and plan to do some drift skiing.

     
    #89 Trail Blazer, Nov 6, 2019
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good stuff on Friday, cold air coming a bit earlier:


    Saturday afternoon looks solid for BB and Buller:
     
    #90 Jellybeans, Nov 6, 2019
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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Stop the whining about Seasonal Anomalies and stay on topic .
     
    #91 Kletterer, Nov 6, 2019
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 00Z
     
    #92 Kletterer, Nov 6, 2019
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM NSW has an AXS-Rbias on this one.
    24hr precip to 5pm Friday:
     
    #93 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #94 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 6, 2019
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller and Baw Baw will be very much line ball until Saturday AM where we see thing start to come out of the SW and come into their own, IMO.
     
    #95 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Might see some flakes in Vic. by 7pm Fri imo
     
    #96 Kletterer, Nov 6, 2019
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ??
    She'll be snowing tonight, and then on/off through tomorrow & Friday.
     
    #97 POW_hungry, Nov 6, 2019
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yes.Was refering to Friday going off EC temp and Dew point plots. Looks a tad warm again in the am.
     
    #98 Kletterer, Nov 6, 2019
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  49. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah...
     
    #99 Rat trap bindings, Nov 6, 2019
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday EC 12Z
     
    #100 POW_hungry, Nov 7, 2019
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