1. The Weather Forum has been re-arranged

    Find all the Day to Day threads in Daily & Chat - - There are now four main 'food groups' with no geo-based criteria. Please take note of the descriptions for clarification.

    This notice may be closed | Discussion about these changes
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Coronavirus #StayHome

    Official Advice

    - People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.
    - If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don’t visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080.
    - If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.

    Information Resources Mental Health Note: This announcement may be closed & This announcement will be reset every few days.
    Dismiss Notice

Predictions 7-9th Nov - The Winter Bounce Back System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Oct 30, 2019.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    Impressive Temps at 500 hPa . The year of Anomalies rolls on.
     
    MarkV, WarrandyteWX and SMSkier like this.
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    Meridonial mayhem up at Jetstream levels. A wicked set up even for Winter let alone November.
     
    nfip, WarrandyteWX, dawooduck and 2 others like this.
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,577
    Likes Received:
    3,122
    Location:
    Gerroa
    All looking very dry though other than the initial front - when yr.no has a solid burst of precip before drying out as the cold comes through.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS has good mid level Integrated Water Vapour Transport and Rel Humidity @ 850 hPa on the back end at this stage. An embedded trough developing could milk some more juice out of it.
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS 00Z looking solid with a suggestion of dual pulses
     
    rocketboy and WarrandyteWX like this.
  6. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2019
    Messages:
    906
    Likes Received:
    1,454
    Location:
    Warrandyte, VIC
    Latest BoM 4 day MSLP showing embedded goodness from Thursday...and dat southerly fetch late Friday.....bang!
     
    SMSkier, Donzah, Jellybeans and 2 others like this.
  7. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,490
    Likes Received:
    7,991
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    Targa High Country tarmac rally race is on Friday-Sunday. The event is based out of Mt Buller Village. They can cancel or shorten the stages that run up the mountain. The majority of the stages are down lower, and will be wet but ok. However, all the competitors, service crew, officials etc stay in the village. It will make an “interesting event”. Will be chaos with people trying to get car transporters, trailers and rally cars up to the village:eek:

    How much snow is likely to be on the ground village level Buller?
     
    CarveMan likes this.
  8. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2019
    Messages:
    906
    Likes Received:
    1,454
    Location:
    Warrandyte, VIC
     
  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    6,422
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Location:
    Melbourne
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-buller
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    20-40cm for the Vic High Country & NSW MR, IMO.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    What month is it again?LOL
     
    SnowBound, Jacko4650, SMSkier and 7 others like this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Just reviewed latest runs for this arvo.
    EC's 00z run has rationalised for the 7th so I think it'll now be more like 15-30cm now. Should be reflected in BoM's output tomorrow arvo.
     
  13. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,577
    Likes Received:
    3,122
    Location:
    Gerroa
    This seems all very Vic only. Barely a pulse left in it by the time it gets to MtK - letalone anywhere further north.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,446
    Likes Received:
    12,288
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    At least it should be colder than Buller and BB that get the brunt of the precip. A solid 10-20cm.
     
  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    6,422
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Location:
    Melbourne
    #65 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 5, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
    Sideny likes this.
  16. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    203
    Likes Received:
    460
    Location:
    Bowral, NSW
    GFS forecast sounding for Cooma. Snow for Jindy IMO
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Whilst it might be yesterday's run it does bear good fruit:
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    BoM's WATL prog for Friday:
     
    WarrandyteWX and SMSkier like this.
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    A little divergence between EC and GFS for this system tonight/tomorrow. With GFS indicating cooler/more moist westerly flow, yielding more snowfall for NSW.
    EC still favouring Vic.
    Can’t help but see GFS with the edge on temps and moisture tonight and tomorrow.

    GFS early tomorrow AM:

    The real fun start Friday though.
     
    WarrandyteWX and SMSkier like this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC coming back around for the MR on the 12Z run.
    Looking much more like GFS & BoM's WATL prog this AM.
    Still packing 15-30cm above 1700m IMO.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Good supply of embedded troughs, which ordinarily equates to > 5-10mm:
     
    Claude Cat, SMSkier and WarrandyteWX like this.
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    IMO Jindy will see a snow/sago shower late Friday night, early Saturday.
     
    Snowmaker7 likes this.
  23. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    6,422
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Location:
    Melbourne
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    73,751
    Likes Received:
    55,564
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Seriously Winter, **** off!
     
  25. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    77,031
    Likes Received:
    43,660
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Spring is the shittest season of the year.

    In order of preference:

    Autumn
    Winter
    Summer
    Spring
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    73,751
    Likes Received:
    55,564
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Good spring is amazing. Bad spring (like this one) is just ****ing annoying. And to be clear, this is only a bad spring because it's 6 weeks too late to be of any use. If this was happening in mid/late September then we'd all be doing backflips!

    Seriously winter, **** off.

    Autumn is the worst season. Spare me your pretty colourful leaves, you are entirely redundant. Too mild to snow, not hot enough to beach. Meh. Nothing season is nothing.
     
    Ozgirl likes this.
  27. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    77,031
    Likes Received:
    43,660
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    I’ll fight you in the BBQ thread.
     
    Edgecrusher likes this.
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    73,751
    Likes Received:
    55,564
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Come at me
     
    Ozgirl and Edgecrusher like this.
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,446
    Likes Received:
    12,288
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.

    Mount Kosciuszko yr.no

    It’s certainly doing better with the wind upgrade with up to 30-40cm above 1800-1900m. Let’s see if that holds.

    Best periods for snowfall
    1. Thursday morning, falls to 1200m in Southern Vic. 1500m in NSW resorts.
    2. From mid-late arvo on Friday, temps drop. Down to potentially around 800m. Needs a shower or two to come through as it is mostly dry however.
    3. Saturday afternoon to evening looks like it could bring down some decent snow down to 1200-1400m.
     
  30. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,376
    Likes Received:
    2,587
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Autumn is actually the best time to beach
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,035
    Likes Received:
    32,480
    Location:
    woonona

    I'll join CM
    Autumn is awesome. Warmest water, offshores , swell.

    *obviously not in Victoria
     
  32. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2015
    Messages:
    165
    Likes Received:
    258
    Location:
    Canberra
    Snowing on the Perisher cams at the mo
     
  33. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2015
    Messages:
    165
    Likes Received:
    258
    Location:
    Canberra
  34. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    4,326
    Likes Received:
    944
    Location:
    Melbourne,Vic,Aust
    I like spring for the variety. Look at Melb this week, 14 one day, 30 not too far behind and some good precip around as well.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    6,422
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Autumn is good for depositing BC supply drops that you don't end up using during the ski season . Plus in Autumn the surf /swell improves and most people desert the beaches. March is good for bushwalking with clear sunny days. Now back to the topic at hand....
     
  36. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    2,140
    Likes Received:
    3,457
    Puking on Thredbo Live cam and nice flakes coming down on Blue Cow Live
     
  37. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    2,140
    Likes Received:
    3,457
    White precipitation on The Taswegian cams now 4:20pm - all melted elsewhere.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  38. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,766
    Likes Received:
    781
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Thredbo BOM looking juicy.

    I'll be down there the following weekend, from the 15th, and plan to do some drift skiing.

     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,446
    Likes Received:
    12,288
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Good stuff on Friday, cold air coming a bit earlier:


    Saturday afternoon looks solid for BB and Buller:
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    Stop the whining about Seasonal Anomalies and stay on topic .
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 00Z
     
    SMSkier and Trail Blazer like this.
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    BoM NSW has an AXS-Rbias on this one.
    24hr precip to 5pm Friday:
     
    Edgecrusher likes this.
  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    6,422
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Location:
    Melbourne
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Buller and Baw Baw will be very much line ball until Saturday AM where we see thing start to come out of the SW and come into their own, IMO.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    Might see some flakes in Vic. by 7pm Fri imo
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ??
    She'll be snowing tonight, and then on/off through tomorrow & Friday.
     
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,269
    Likes Received:
    19,159
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yes.Was refering to Friday going off EC temp and Dew point plots. Looks a tad warm again in the am.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  48. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    386
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    24,158
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Friday EC 12Z
     
    Snowy Joey and Majikthise like this.