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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Oct 30, 2019.
Impressive Temps at 500 hPa . The year of Anomalies rolls on.
Meridonial mayhem up at Jetstream levels. A wicked set up even for Winter let alone November.
All looking very dry though other than the initial front - when yr.no has a solid burst of precip before drying out as the cold comes through.
GFS has good mid level Integrated Water Vapour Transport and Rel Humidity @ 850 hPa on the back end at this stage. An embedded trough developing could milk some more juice out of it.
GFS 00Z looking solid with a suggestion of dual pulses
Latest BoM 4 day MSLP showing embedded goodness from Thursday...and dat southerly fetch late Friday.....bang!
Targa High Country tarmac rally race is on Friday-Sunday. The event is based out of Mt Buller Village. They can cancel or shorten the stages that run up the mountain. The majority of the stages are down lower, and will be wet but ok. However, all the competitors, service crew, officials etc stay in the village. It will make an “interesting event”. Will be chaos with people trying to get car transporters, trailers and rally cars up to the village
How much snow is likely to be on the ground village level Buller?
20-40cm for the Vic High Country & NSW MR, IMO.
What month is it again?
Just reviewed latest runs for this arvo.
EC's 00z run has rationalised for the 7th so I think it'll now be more like 15-30cm now. Should be reflected in BoM's output tomorrow arvo.
This seems all very Vic only. Barely a pulse left in it by the time it gets to MtK - letalone anywhere further north.
At least it should be colder than Buller and BB that get the brunt of the precip. A solid 10-20cm.
Baw Baw could be XC skiable this Sat.. Even without a base it could be rock hopper-able.
Hot Ham looks less so now....
GFS forecast sounding for Cooma. Snow for Jindy IMO
Whilst it might be yesterday's run it does bear good fruit:
BoM's WATL prog for Friday:
A little divergence between EC and GFS for this system tonight/tomorrow. With GFS indicating cooler/more moist westerly flow, yielding more snowfall for NSW.
EC still favouring Vic.
Can’t help but see GFS with the edge on temps and moisture tonight and tomorrow.
GFS early tomorrow AM:
The real fun start Friday though.
EC coming back around for the MR on the 12Z run.
Looking much more like GFS & BoM's WATL prog this AM.
Still packing 15-30cm above 1700m IMO.
Good supply of embedded troughs, which ordinarily equates to > 5-10mm:
IMO Jindy will see a snow/sago shower late Friday night, early Saturday.
The Modelling now looks like much more R**n and less snow for VIC. .
I am now not so sure about getting the skis and wheel chains out from the cellar.
Seriously Winter, **** off!
Spring is the shittest season of the year.
In order of preference:
Good spring is amazing. Bad spring (like this one) is just ****ing annoying. And to be clear, this is only a bad spring because it's 6 weeks too late to be of any use. If this was happening in mid/late September then we'd all be doing backflips!
Seriously winter, **** off.
Autumn is the worst season. Spare me your pretty colourful leaves, you are entirely redundant. Too mild to snow, not hot enough to beach. Meh. Nothing season is nothing.
I’ll fight you in the BBQ thread.
Come at me
Mount Kosciuszko yr.no
It’s certainly doing better with the wind upgrade with up to 30-40cm above 1800-1900m. Let’s see if that holds.
Best periods for snowfall
Thursday morning, falls to 1200m in Southern Vic. 1500m in NSW resorts.
From mid-late arvo on Friday, temps drop. Down to potentially around 800m. Needs a shower or two to come through as it is mostly dry however.
Saturday afternoon to evening looks like it could bring down some decent snow down to 1200-1400m.
Autumn is actually the best time to beach
I'll join CM
Autumn is awesome. Warmest water, offshores , swell.
*obviously not in Victoria
Snowing on the Perisher cams at the mo
I like spring for the variety. Look at Melb this week, 14 one day, 30 not too far behind and some good precip around as well.
Autumn is good for depositing BC supply drops that you don't end up using during the ski season . Plus in Autumn the surf /swell improves and most people desert the beaches. March is good for bushwalking with clear sunny days. Now back to the topic at hand....
Puking on Thredbo Live cam and nice flakes coming down on Blue Cow Live
White precipitation on The Taswegian cams now 4:20pm - all melted elsewhere.
Thredbo BOM looking juicy.
I'll be down there the following weekend, from the 15th, and plan to do some drift skiing.
Good stuff on Friday, cold air coming a bit earlier:
Saturday afternoon looks solid for BB and Buller:
Stop the whining about Seasonal Anomalies and stay on topic .
BoM NSW has an AXS-Rbias on this one.
24hr precip to 5pm Friday:
A mixture of r**n and snow appears in present the modelling for Baw Baw. It needs to be 1 or 2 degrees colder to convert all the r**n into snow.
Saturday is still not out of the question for a Baw Baw rock hopper trip
Although Sunday morning could be rock hopper XC skiable at Mt. Stirling above 1550 M.
Buller and Baw Baw will be very much line ball until Saturday AM where we see thing start to come out of the SW and come into their own, IMO.
Might see some flakes in Vic. by 7pm Fri imo
She'll be snowing tonight, and then on/off through tomorrow & Friday.
Yes.Was refering to Friday going off EC temp and Dew point plots. Looks a tad warm again in the am.
Friday EC 12Z