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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, May 30, 2018.
Is it just me. Or is something stirring ?
Looks cold enough.
It's improving. Was always there, just as a clipper. Let's see how the progression goes.
The main problem is GFS is the only one that shows it like this. AXS, EC and CMC shows a clipper.
Looking at things further South as it rotates there is potential but around 70 % chance that it peaks too early- IMO
I have a strange suspicion that EC will come up with something slightly minty in the next coupla days. On another note a nice little swing ( although not huge) in the MJO around the discussed period. Some vibe is overdue.
Yeah the next 5-15 days are go for the MJO to really pop. Though the counteracting GWO balance is offputting to say the least. Extratropical component is thumbs down.
As I said in the Autumn thread, both CMC and EC have this peaking too early in WA, and slipping south by the time it gets to the east. Only GFS is showing much hope. Still some wiggle room at 220+ hours out though.
Sadly it's raining in Oslo at this point. Gloom and doom usually works to get a better outcome. But at least DidSurfNowSki should be able to get a parking spot in Thredbo.
Looks like a great LWE for riding bikes somewhere:
Yeah personly i am a little more confident in this due to the better balance shown on the POAMA intergrated climate drivers chart. In real terms its quite a significant change IMO. Look at that volume of cold mass pushing under Madagascar around the 5th ( behind our system of interest on 7th-8th) in conjunction with the 250 hPa winds trends.
Looks too warm now.
Just looks like it's sliding south, as all the other models showed yesterday.
The cold is sliding, precipitation not. So we may end up with a load of rain.
Not as if there's much to wash away.
But not exactly pleasing conditions for one on QBW. Though chances are they are probably all inside in the pub.
It's either going to pour or snow.
Oslo now going for snow with little if any pre frontal at Perisher at up.
Isn't there already a thread for this?
Mind you originally 29-30 May looked like this. More confident as we are now in Winter?!!
Just need that humidity to drop at -6 tonight.
Come back to life on GFS?
Still looks very weak on EC
No love from the Canucks either.
Well the BOM say mild so its on for me.. Couple of decent storms this, just a matter of when..
I feel it coming...
If this happens, I will be one happy person
Hmmmm.... give it a day or two.
Saw that. Was going to post the 0Z GIF tonight.
pretty much gone again on 00z
GFS 00Z ?
4 Day Rule: always apply it
Peaking Early: never a good thing
Sliding Away: also bad
Non weather terms that confuse things
LWE: Long Weekend
QBW: Queens Birthday weekend
This might help:
EC not out yet.
Yr.no still a bit of interest in it. But for how long?
Let's wait for the 6pm update.
no , too warm.
Copy that = yes agree / understand
*192 hrs = a long way out and not to be relied upon for accuracy.
next Friday now showing up on BOM - remains ok - next up Oslo at 6ish - though the app does sometimes update an hour ealier.
Watching as Ill be camping for Dart Cup......please don't drench me and my boat!
18z GFS is a fugazi. Why? Because it has solid a peak around SW WA (as it consistently has for 4 days now) and then maintained Westerly flow to the Eastern Seaboard... GFS loves that non-existent scenario.
None the less, I still like something to pop up in the models in the later part of the above window (around 10-14th). LWT and retrograding MJO look to coincide nicely.
Here's the animated "Graphic Interchange Format" File. Or GIF for short. Of the "Global Forecast System" models. Or GFS for short. It's the 00z timestamp run of the model. Which is midnight in Greenwich England.
Hope that makes it clearer. But I'm not typing that every time.
Now my prediction. Not as much moisture. And not as cold as previous GFS run. IMO.
Oh the Irony, from a lawyer.
Sorry *Stay on Topic*
only need quick scan of this page to see who is contributing, in any postive sense, to the topic aka the ball , not the man..
00z EC doesn't look that bad, rather similar to GFS, except for the colder backend. Workable from 1600-1700m and above IMO. But only really 15-20cm.
And then into the 9th and 10th, but with little moisture to play with. ~1200-1300m at it's coldest.
The end of the run also shows something moving towards Tasmania, not so much Victoria.
Looks pretty normal for this time of year. Once again winter will arrive about the 3rd week of June. Anything before then is a bonus.
That's all we need to open up perisher!!
Olso calling after a 30 min delay (perisher)
looks ok - backing off a bit - which I guess sets the seen for a steady fiz
Stay on topic.
The initial period of sour grapes. Divergent wind overpowering rotational wind.