Predictions 7th - 10th June What's the Story. Opening Weekend Glory?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, May 30, 2018.

  1. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it just me. Or is something stirring ?
    Looks cold enough.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's improving. Was always there, just as a clipper. Let's see how the progression goes.

    The main problem is GFS is the only one that shows it like this. AXS, EC and CMC shows a clipper.
     
    #2 Jellybeans, May 30, 2018
    Last edited: May 30, 2018
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at things further South as it rotates there is potential but around 70 % chance that it peaks too early- IMO
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have a strange suspicion that EC will come up with something slightly minty in the next coupla days. On another note a nice little swing ( although not huge) in the MJO around the discussed period. Some vibe is overdue.
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the next 5-15 days are go for the MJO to really pop. Though the counteracting GWO balance is offputting to say the least. Extratropical component is thumbs down.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As I said in the Autumn thread, both CMC and EC have this peaking too early in WA, and slipping south by the time it gets to the east. Only GFS is showing much hope. Still some wiggle room at 220+ hours out though.
    IMO
     
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  7. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a great LWE for riding bikes somewhere:
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah personly i am a little more confident in this due to the better balance shown on the POAMA intergrated climate drivers chart. In real terms its quite a significant change IMO. Look at that volume of cold mass pushing under Madagascar around the 5th ( behind our system of interest on 7th-8th) in conjunction with the 250 hPa winds trends.
     
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  10. Astro666

    Astro666 One of Us

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    Looks too warm now. :(

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just looks like it's sliding south, as all the other models showed yesterday.
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The cold is sliding, precipitation not. So we may end up with a load of rain.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not as if there's much to wash away.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    But not exactly pleasing conditions for one on QBW. Though chances are they are probably all inside in the pub.
     
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  15. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's either going to pour or snow.

    Oslo now going for snow with little if any pre frontal at Perisher at up.

     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isn't there already a thread for this?
     
  17. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Mind you originally 29-30 May looked like this. More confident as we are now in Winter?!!
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably not.
     
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  19. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Just need that humidity to drop at -6 tonight.
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Come back to life on GFS?

    [​IMG]

    Still looks very weak on EC
    [​IMG]

    No love from the Canucks either.
     
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  21. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Well the BOM say mild so its on for me.. Couple of decent storms this, just a matter of when..
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I feel it coming...
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This ? ;)
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    If this happens, I will be one happy person
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmmm.... give it a day or two.
     
  26. Astro666

    Astro666 One of Us

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    Saw that. Was going to post the 0Z GIF tonight.
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Copy that.
    *192 hrs
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    pretty much gone again on 00z
     
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  29. Astro666

    Astro666 One of Us

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    GFS 00Z ?
     
  30. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    4 Day Rule: always apply it
    Minty: good/snow
    Peaking Early: never a good thing
    Sliding Away: also bad

    Non weather terms that confuse things
    LWE: Long Weekend
    QBW: Queens Birthday weekend

    This might help:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-maps-weather-terms.61245/
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yep.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  33. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damm
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC not out yet.
     
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  35. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    no , too warm.
    is liquid
     
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  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Copy that = yes agree / understand
    *192 hrs = a long way out and not to be relied upon for accuracy.
     
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  39. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Ultrasteez

    Ultrasteez One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching as Ill be camping for Dart Cup......please don't drench me and my boat!
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    18z GFS is a fugazi. Why? Because it has solid a peak around SW WA (as it consistently has for 4 days now) and then maintained Westerly flow to the Eastern Seaboard... GFS loves that non-existent scenario.

    None the less, I still like something to pop up in the models in the later part of the above window (around 10-14th). LWT and retrograding MJO look to coincide nicely.
     
  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's the animated "Graphic Interchange Format" File. Or GIF for short. Of the "Global Forecast System" models. Or GFS for short. It's the 00z timestamp run of the model. Which is midnight in Greenwich England.

    Hope that makes it clearer. But I'm not typing that every time.

    Now my prediction. Not as much moisture. And not as cold as previous GFS run. IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh the Irony, from a lawyer.

    Sorry *Stay on Topic*
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    only need quick scan of this page to see who is contributing, in any postive sense, to the topic aka the ball , not the man..
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z EC doesn't look that bad, rather similar to GFS, except for the colder backend. Workable from 1600-1700m and above IMO. But only really 15-20cm.

    And then into the 9th and 10th, but with little moisture to play with. ~1200-1300m at it's coldest.

    The end of the run also shows something moving towards Tasmania, not so much Victoria.
     
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  46. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks pretty normal for this time of year. Once again winter will arrive about the 3rd week of June. Anything before then is a bonus.
     
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  47. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    That's all we need to open up perisher!!
     
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  48. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The initial period of sour grapes. Divergent wind overpowering rotational wind.
     
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