Predictions 8-10th May - Preseason Chill Down

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 4, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've been eyeing this one off for about a week now (and this window for a few weeks now), as models are now settling on this system at the end of next week.

    A weakening front looks set to pass through Victoria/Tas Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, this system will bring snow to Mainland Alps above 1700m. Given the ridging; it's a quick system bringing ~5cm above 2k potentially at this stage.


    Following this, the trailing ridge broadens and we see a high amplitude polar jet buckle over the SE of the continent, bringing a cold outbreak to NSW, Vic, Tas and even parts of SA.


    By Friday arvo we see the ridge sit under WA potentially forging a cut off system through the SE with a wandering cold pool through Vic & NSW.
    FL dropping down to around 1300m, with snow falling above 900m in parts of NSW & Victoria IMO. Places such as Blue Mountains, CT's (and possibly New England Tablelands & Barrington Tops) have a good chance of some snow showers.

    It's trending towards snow in strange places, especially for May.


    IMO the mainland alps will see ~10cm (maybe up to 15cm), but the crowd-pleaser will be the incursion of the cold air, with it potentially reaching Northern NSW.
    Might see some snowguns tested but def nothing sticking around longer than a few days IMO.

    Beyond this we see the broad ridge settle over Southern Aus which looks to block much else behind it so things look stable beyond next weekend into the forseeable.
     
  2. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good marketing snow. Will be good to have a second Saturday in Melbourne in chilly weather, good for business when people realise they can't do their favourite summer activities and start thinking about winter.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-G putting this system on paper a little ealier than EC, making it aligned with GFS.
    Still cold on both however.

     
  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As often noted all models seem to struggle a bit in 'shoulder seasons' when it comes to 'unseasonal events' - which prog seems the most logical to you at the minute POW?
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. I agree. EC. Hence my focus in the first post, I guess.
    Wednesday's weakening system is key, I think. GFS down plays it. EC has been even keel, yet progressively upgrading it (~90 hours) - so the trend is there, for me.

    Separately, I don't like GFS's heavy handedness of the Tropics at the moment, namely the clones progged in the Coral & Timor Seas by GFS. Did GFS not get the memo that it's May?
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Really nice formation on EC 00z.

    Interesting interaction between the low level low, and the upper level generated coldfront. The low drags down south and brings the majority of precipitation down in Southern Victoria : Melbourne, Victorian Alps and Gippsland.

    It brings 10-25cm for Victorian Alps
    5-15cm for NSW Alps at the moment.

    A tad less on GFS 00z.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSG 00z run, now backing EC in a big way, albeit with a stalled cut off system:
     
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  8. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    I'll be heading up to Mudgee on Friday arvo. Might see something through Lithgow and surrounds?
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Def a chance at this stage.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Positively both Wednesday and Thursday evening’s system kick straight into snow, I am not seeing any sign of any prefrontal mess.

    A good sign of some well-coupled systems. And hopefully a sign of things to come.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And there you have it, GFS 06z jumps on the the EC cut off low bandwagon.

    ...sorta... complete with a clone forming in the Coral Sea, in May.:crap:
     
  12. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    YR.NO looking really good on kozzie, that be a season starter if it actually happened to the resorts + windblown would be making it deeper in some places
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18Z coming around on Wednesday's curtain-raiser event now.
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not too shabby 12 hour period imo
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cyclogenesis over Western Vic (EC)
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. Temp advection plots are showing a bit of the old keep left unless overtaking argy bargy potential.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TROWAL Lyf?
    Looking pretty stacked with cold air.
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably not that likely on second view. This looks a little specy though.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need to drop my obsession with trowels.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haha.
    Love a good one though. Better chance in spring.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was it Sept 2017 we had that impressive one ?
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds about right. It def during the -'ive IOD season of '17.
    Was a cut off low wasn't it?
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will have to check the archives at some stage. A thread on Occlusion- Cyclolysis might be interesting.
     
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  24. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    @ 1st week of August, '17 :)
     
  25. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interested to hear Jane's opinion on this coming system.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From 2 days ago... Totals are not nearly as bullish as the EC output below IMO.
     
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  27. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Insert ground cooler observation here
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think Wednesday will be around 5-10cm at a 1600m snow level.

    Thurs night/Fri could be about 10-20cm IMO at 800/900m.

    Wednesday will obviously set the tone, if we see the higher numbers then, we could see us head somewhere towards 20cm, particularly for the NSW MR/upper resort. If we get lower totals on Weds, both events will be within typical ground cooler ranges.

     
  29. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane definitely used the "S" word. May 11 could be on.
     
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  30. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Ground cooler, marketing hype, rain for the farmers and white snow cams says to me this season aint far now. Be so nice to feel some icy s'westerlies in burn city.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS's take on precip through the SE this week (Tomorrow to Friday), indicating Vic has the upper hand for the amount of precip this week.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking continuously cooler on the models for Tues/Wed system.
    Snow lowering from 1700m Tuesday night, down to ~1500m Wednesday Morning for the resorts IMO

    I still reckon we'll see about 5-7cm on the ground by Wednesday AM
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going with 800m the magic number for Vic on Friday - seems reasonable to me.
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a foot Wednesday to weekend
    Mid station will get 2 feet
    *on a table
    **under a eve
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Coupla coke cans on the Falls Creek Cedarwood deck.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 3 hourly temp anomalies. Not too shabby for this time of year.
     
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  38. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BoM Hotham
     
  39. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom Hotham - take 2...
     
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    A foot is looking about right for NSW.
    Perhaps a little more for VIC IMO.

    Wednesday
    VIC: 5-12cm 1400m early, 1600-1700m later
    NSW: 5-12cm 1500m early, 1600-1700m later.


    Thursday
    VIC: 10-20cm Starting at 1600m late afternoon, down to 1100-1200m late.
    NSW: 1-5cm, starting at 1400m in the evening.


    Friday
    VIC: 5-10cm, 800m SL
    NSW: 10-20cm, 800m SL.


    Saturday
    VIC: 0-3cm 1200m early, large warming up from there after precipitation.
    NSW: 0cm
     
  41. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday CT’s 1000M
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Check out the detour on that Jet core. Magnitude in this one and an unwavering trough axis that means business. Much to like.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *eave
    ** soffit
    :whistle:
     
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  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite the hoop
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice and tight little curl eh ?
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    By hook or by crook
     
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  48. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Looking like it clears up pretty quickly on Saturday with a pretty stable period to follow imo.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Best polar jet-stream we've seen for a long while.

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Great to be back on the forum for another season. Gets me so excited around this time of year when the main guys start predicting the upcoming season and the cooler months start lighting this forum up. Cheers to CC, Donzah, POW_ hungry, Kleeterer, JaneBunn, Snowy Joey, nfip, Jellybeans1000, DiscoStuAu and others that contribute their expertise to predict our fickle Australian winters to this forum. Great to see this wintry blast this week! May we be blessed with another cold and snowy season. Resort or backcountry... lay deep fresh tracks, yewww rad times ahead! Hopefully everyone gets amongst it.