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Predictions 8-10th May - Preseason Chill Down

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 4, 2019.

  1. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    It is looking that way just as per usual I am tempering enthusiasm. The following ridge does seem to come in fairly quickly to spoil the full party.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta factor in that warm ground.;)
     
  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like skiing up high will be possible over the weekend IMO. Heading down next week. May have to take skis.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you value any part of your ski/board I am not so sure about that in most places up high.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom's off it.
    Perisher:
     
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  6. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    CT’s down to 900M for Friday now re BOM
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps only a little.
    The have 3-8 for tomorrow plus a bit for Thursday, conceptually 20cm if all goes right, which isn't totally stupid IMO
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    But Buller is Better: ;)

     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As a general forecast, Vic BOM has snow down to 1500m Wednesday; 1500m down to 1200m, (800m in the west) Thursday; and 900m Friday.
     
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  10. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The dreaded ‘W’ appears all too frequently for great optimism
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mixing ratios took a dive on EC today but its not gospel quite yet imo.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think so. NWly and SWly are fine.
     
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  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So here is the problem. Sensational Vortistic pattern but it leaves us ( Alpine regions) in an area of stability between the major streams as seen on this EC plot @ 700 hPa which is a common level for seeking ( or wishing for :)) under side of the Dendritic Growth Zone in a good system . Not much wind shear dynamics in the middle of an eddy unfortunately. She needs to drop a tad South and i reckon it may do so slightly in tomorows runs IMO
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC & AXS-R (00Z) says to me they'll pull back on this a little tomorrow.
    I am seeing snow to 1000 out West and 1100m at best for CTs/BMs.

    That -30C upper cold pool is rationalised run-to-run now.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Glad I am not the only one 'seeing things'.
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shes an upstream only system i reckon. 700 vapour transfer plots are quite good and a little broader and more saturated than the band than went through SA today but still looking more like a brief encounter atm.
     
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  17. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I recall a similar setup in the last couple of seasons that largely missed the alpine and delivered more snow up north around orange. Slingshot slug of cold moist air up and over. The progged low hanging around SE coast of NSW (AXS G) may make it a bit different???
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unfortunately the slingshot ( downstream ) will be rather dry regardless of position. Available moisture is lacking despite the healthy pressure induced dew point necessities.
     
  19. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM forecast looking good for LM:
    Wednesday - snow down to 1400m (ie: upper trails)
    Thursday - snow to 1200m (whole resort) 8mm to 25mm precipitation
    Friday - snow to 900m 6mm to 10mm precip
    Sat - showers :( 1mm to 3mm precip
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thurs arvo might be a tad breezy in Melbourne.
     
  21. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thinking seriously about taking touring skis to bb on Saturday. Could be more fun than watching Pies v Blues. Just hoping this system brings the goods. Jane thinks so.
     
  22. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Well they made all that snow!!..
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have backed off a bit more for Friday.

    Must keep an eye on the tightening of the low through Gippsland/Bass Str8, with a good chance of vort induced falls Friday AM into early afternoon.
    The ability for these falls to make it in past Gippsland will be determined by the mid-levels.
    Divergence is there between GFS & EC this morning: GFS is into it, EC is a no go for launch.
     
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has around three lows on that chart...interesing
     
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  25. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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    With 2cm in the can last night and the main event to come, I’m thinking it’ll be closer to 10cm total this week rather than 15. Hope I’m wrong and it bumps up to some of the predictions of others.

    IMO
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably more a case of the mid-levels impacted by upper-level subduction at the vort head (aka The Plugholes):
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Overnight was never going to amount to much. The main game will be Thursday / Friday.
     
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  28. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    BOM actually showing the snow icon now for Oberon.

    (Not sure if it was yesterday or not).
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Late Thursday for Central Vic (Melbs)
    **Friday morning for alps.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah was there yesterdee, but expect a elevation adjustment this arvo for snow to 1100m IMO
    If it happens it'll be mid/late arvo Fridee
     
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  31. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Beautiful. Will be driving through Running Stream around that time. Will stop for pics if worthwhile.
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    @POW_hungry do you think MountainWatch's calls of 50cm for Falls Creek seem a bit far fetched at this stage?!!
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Complete bullshit. Click bait.
    My genuine thoughts lie in post #1 of this thread. Estimates still apply IMO.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would love some embedded troughs but that ridge is a kelpie, rounding it up real quick.
    I do like it's final breath at 10pm Friday, through the backdoor.
    [​IMG]
     
  35. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Yep couldn't agree more. I am now more confident that it'll be unlikely that Perisher will see more than about 20cm by Saturday morning.
     
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Friday could be rock hopper ski day at LM.
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tail end is looking like it may deliver a little more than previously expected on GFS IMO. Nothing amazing but plots are showing a fair little chunk of IVT @ 700 hPa hugging a healthy vortistic shear pattern that was not there yesterday.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As expected for CTs:
    And and a reasonable snow level adjustment for the Alps NSW & Vic, for Friday
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoMs into that backdoor instability. 6-20mm for Friday, I am into it:
     
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  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow for Jindy (high areas) and surrounds
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ditto :)
     
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  42. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    I heard on the Beetoota weather site they could 30 cents on Friday snow in strange places.
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looking better for NSW this evening, VIC still getting the most however.

    The expected moderation in figures...
    VIC: 20-30cm IMO.
    NSW 10-20cm IMO.

    Still looks very nice and cold, very decent figures for this time of year.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday Eve via AXSR (12km res)
    Might even get that 15cm above ~1400m after all but it’s all mesoscale stuff really...


    OCF for the win (Friday 10am to saturday AM):
     
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  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    jonathanc, teckel and CarveMan like this.
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Orbost express.
     
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  47. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Picsorban. But we know you're good for them!

    I did something similar with @Seth many years ago.
     
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  48. Seth

    Seth Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’d be 2011 I reckon. Jeepers.
     
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  49. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Main Range was good in May 2015 too. Some decent terrain was rideable and it was super photogenic with all the ice... just needed crampons for access! I think I did a trip report on here.

    Prediction - it will be similar after this system, although the winds aren't as strong this time so we probably won't get such dramatic rime formations.
     
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  50. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane's take on the upcoming event for VICO:

     
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