Predictions 8-10th May - Preseason Chill Down

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 4, 2019.

  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,228
    Likes Received:
    41,003
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Is it me or has Yr/EC backed off quite a bit?
     
    skiflat and derwent like this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It’s backed off Vic resorts (with the exception of Baw Baw), yeah. Bit of Tassie shadowing IMO, whilst NSW benefits from that Southerly dip East of Tas, Friday PM.

    On the other hand South Central Vic (incl. Melb) looks good to go, while y’all sleeping tonight!
     
    SMSkier, DiscoStuAU and Edgecrusher like this.
  3. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,376
    Likes Received:
    24,597
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    BOM NSW CT’s up to 1100 from the 900m hopecast yesterday
     
    davidg likes this.
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,049
    Likes Received:
    17,435
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 00Z is rather lacklustre . Streamlines/ shear and total precipitable water not joining hands in the Alpine regions where we wish them to be. 10 to 15cm for the Main Range imo.
     
    skiflat likes this.
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,049
    Likes Received:
    17,435
    Location:
    Canberra
    Thredbo might do ok circa 6 am tomorow but K Index numbers would suggest a very slim chance of Thunder IMO
     
  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,913
    Likes Received:
    5,336
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I cannot see a XC ski rock hopper day in the works at Lake Mtn. this week. The cold front has weakened but for surfing on Monday at Westernport , I think it looks prime!
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Noreasterly snow
    *snow in strange places
     
    SMSkier and POW_hungry like this.
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Purely wollongong based... but saturday morning will be bloody chilly and windy and a bit wild.
     
    Ted Harper, Kletterer and POW_hungry like this.
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,736
    Likes Received:
    10,702
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.

    Latest EC still shows Central VIC and Melbourne to be the big winner.

    Below IMO
    Buller: 10-20cm
    BB/LM: 10-25cm
    Falls/Hotham: 5-15cm
    Perisher and Thredbo: 10-20cm
     
    #159 Jellybeans, May 9, 2019
    Last edited: May 9, 2019
    SMSkier and skiflat like this.
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Not to write off EC... but i prefer the meso on AXS-R
    That rainfall pattern is a bit illogical SE of Thredbo.
    Hasn't taken into account valleys etc.
     
    SMSkier and jonathanc like this.
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,736
    Likes Received:
    10,702
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yeah you could see a bit more, up to around 20cm/mm in that region.
    It's really about whether the more southerly low builds south of the Alps (EC), or over the Alps (AXS). The further north the low is, the easier it is to circle around and bring precipitation into the NSW Alps.
    I think it is a case of see what happens, maybe NSW could get higher numbers, but the chances aren't incredible IMO.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  12. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    184
    Likes Received:
    409
    Location:
    Bowral, NSW
    Falls creek Instagram this morning posted something about 40-50cm of snow expected tomorrow, but have since deleted itLOL cold air has backed off but this sort of setup usually still produces snow down to lower levels than expected. Sat pic looks pretty nice
     
    skiflat likes this.
  13. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,744
    Likes Received:
    502
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    Looks like Jane has backed off on this event as well (going with EC model) calling 4cm for LM, 5cm for Buller and bb. A disappointing downgrade. Fingers still crossed for more than this. But ok, it's May.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,736
    Likes Received:
    10,702
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I don't think the cold air has backed off. The precipitation has.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  15. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    12,243
    Likes Received:
    13,014
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    That was a weird forecast. Based on 850hPa temps alone 900m was well out of reach. 1100m seems about right which should see a light settling on the higher parts of the OP and out West (usual spots) plus a flurry or two in the BMs IMHO. Nice system for early May anyway.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Disappointing downgrade? Depends on where you're getting info from.
    It's never looked like >20cm (in any resort) from my POV. Sure 20mm precip has been in the models but that's over 2-3 days, some of which was above 0C/FL...
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,665
    Likes Received:
    10,247
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    That's just an automated forecast though ?

    I reckon BawBaw will get a good foot easy.
     
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,665
    Likes Received:
    10,247
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Baw baw maybe.
     
  19. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    276
    Likes Received:
    318
    And Bom agrees...
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeh, na.
    I think far from it.
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,049
    Likes Received:
    17,435
    Location:
    Canberra
    2 cm for Baw Baw IMO
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I'll raise ya to 5-7cm;)
     
    Kletterer and Jacko4650 like this.
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,736
    Likes Received:
    10,702
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yeah the capacity is stronger for Perisher/Thredbo and the Southern resorts.
     
    Gregah likes this.
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    On Monday, AXS(G) & EC were insync going for -2C at 850mb, with 500mb nudging -33C over the CTs. Big anom for May but regardless, that'll easily put snow down to 900m, even if your FL is ~1250m.
     
    davidg likes this.
  25. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,849
    Likes Received:
    676
    Location:
    Jindabyne
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,049
    Likes Received:
    17,435
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC ending midnight Friday.
     
  27. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    12,243
    Likes Received:
    13,014
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    Fair enuff. Must have looked after it dissappeared from the models.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  28. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    521
    Likes Received:
    694
    Location:
    Redfern
    What time do the brains trust expect some activity to commence tomorrow?
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,736
    Likes Received:
    10,702
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Very early morning (1-3am) tomorrow for VIC, a few hours later for NSW.
     
    Marquise de Kappy likes this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The GF is heading over to mine tonight so I am hoping ASAP.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Get it out of the way so you can watch weather at 1am?
     
    skiflat and POW_hungry like this.
  32. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    And so the snow forecasting season begins :)
    I love the speculation, expert knowledge here and even the inevitable downgrades ...
    I am looking forward to August though :)
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,736
    Likes Received:
    10,702
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I think everybody is looking forward to it. Rock-hopping prediction season is fun, but we all want to get up on the hill :).
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Mid July looks better than August
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Always down for the 1am climax.
     
    Marquise de Kappy likes this.
  36. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    Day trips for me July , week booked first week of August :) (sorry off topic )
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Dedicated
    Thats alot of downtime
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,049
    Likes Received:
    17,435
    Location:
    Canberra
    Stay on topic.
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    Sorry sandy, CC ... um?
     
    Claude Cat and Kletterer like this.
  40. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    521
    Likes Received:
    694
    Location:
    Redfern
    Where are you?
     
  41. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    521
    Likes Received:
    694
    Location:
    Redfern
    Suits me. At Perisher 2 weeks from 20th July. Hopefully some of the 'Mid July' vibe hangs around the following couple of weeks.
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,665
    Likes Received:
    10,247
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    20 plus unless too warm i reckon
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,665
    Likes Received:
    10,247
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Pretty good southerly flow though from midday friday
     
    Jellybeans and POW_hungry like this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, agreed. 3-7pm is it's time to shine before things dry out.
    I just don't think you'll see 4-5cm/hr fall rates in this thing tomorrow.
     
  45. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    665
    Snow in strange places sounds like the Mackay connection lol
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
    well the low is centred north of the NSW alps
    so you wouldn't think so
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,691
    Likes Received:
    27,069
    Location:
    woonona
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Thredbo off to have a coupla last minute, Friday night bumps, says EC with 2.5mm/hr over the next few hours.
     
    Snow Blowey likes this.
  49. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2007
    Messages:
    8,221
    Likes Received:
    6,464
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindy
    Quick questionoh knowledgable ones,

    Mum is driving home from Albury over the alpine way leaving around 9am, she is worried about the weather. I said Nah don't worry about it. Am i a bad daughter?
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,547
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It’s coming down very heavily at DHG, settling about 1500m. Should only hold up and hour or two.
    RMS should have it cleared by daylight IMO.
     
    Ozgirl likes this.