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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 4, 2019.
Is it me or has Yr/EC backed off quite a bit?
It’s backed off Vic resorts (with the exception of Baw Baw), yeah. Bit of Tassie shadowing IMO, whilst NSW benefits from that Southerly dip East of Tas, Friday PM.
On the other hand South Central Vic (incl. Melb) looks good to go, while y’all sleeping tonight!
BOM NSW CT’s up to 1100 from the 900m hopecast yesterday
EC 00Z is rather lacklustre . Streamlines/ shear and total precipitable water not joining hands in the Alpine regions where we wish them to be. 10 to 15cm for the Main Range imo.
Thredbo might do ok circa 6 am tomorow but K Index numbers would suggest a very slim chance of Thunder IMO
I cannot see a XC ski rock hopper day in the works at Lake Mtn. this week. The cold front has weakened but for surfing on Monday at Westernport , I think it looks prime!
*snow in strange places
Purely wollongong based... but saturday morning will be bloody chilly and windy and a bit wild.
Latest EC still shows Central VIC and Melbourne to be the big winner.
Perisher and Thredbo: 10-20cm
Not to write off EC... but i prefer the meso on AXS-R
That rainfall pattern is a bit illogical SE of Thredbo.
Hasn't taken into account valleys etc.
Yeah you could see a bit more, up to around 20cm/mm in that region.
It's really about whether the more southerly low builds south of the Alps (EC), or over the Alps (AXS). The further north the low is, the easier it is to circle around and bring precipitation into the NSW Alps.
I think it is a case of see what happens, maybe NSW could get higher numbers, but the chances aren't incredible IMO.
Falls creek Instagram this morning posted something about 40-50cm of snow expected tomorrow, but have since deleted it cold air has backed off but this sort of setup usually still produces snow down to lower levels than expected. Sat pic looks pretty nice
Looks like Jane has backed off on this event as well (going with EC model) calling 4cm for LM, 5cm for Buller and bb. A disappointing downgrade. Fingers still crossed for more than this. But ok, it's May.
I don't think the cold air has backed off. The precipitation has.
That was a weird forecast. Based on 850hPa temps alone 900m was well out of reach. 1100m seems about right which should see a light settling on the higher parts of the OP and out West (usual spots) plus a flurry or two in the BMs IMHO. Nice system for early May anyway.
Disappointing downgrade? Depends on where you're getting info from.
It's never looked like >20cm (in any resort) from my POV. Sure 20mm precip has been in the models but that's over 2-3 days, some of which was above 0C/FL...
That's just an automated forecast though ?
I reckon BawBaw will get a good foot easy.
Baw baw maybe.
And Bom agrees...
I think far from it.
2 cm for Baw Baw IMO
I'll raise ya to 5-7cm
Yeah the capacity is stronger for Perisher/Thredbo and the Southern resorts.
On Monday, AXS(G) & EC were insync going for -2C at 850mb, with 500mb nudging -33C over the CTs. Big anom for May but regardless, that'll easily put snow down to 900m, even if your FL is ~1250m.
EC ending midnight Friday.
Fair enuff. Must have looked after it dissappeared from the models.
What time do the brains trust expect some activity to commence tomorrow?
Very early morning (1-3am) tomorrow for VIC, a few hours later for NSW.
The GF is heading over to mine tonight so I am hoping ASAP.
Get it out of the way so you can watch weather at 1am?
And so the snow forecasting season begins
I love the speculation, expert knowledge here and even the inevitable downgrades ...
I am looking forward to August though
I think everybody is looking forward to it. Rock-hopping prediction season is fun, but we all want to get up on the hill .
Mid July looks better than August
Always down for the 1am climax.
Day trips for me July , week booked first week of August (sorry off topic )
Thats alot of downtime
Stay on topic.
Sorry sandy, CC ... um?
Where are you?
Suits me. At Perisher 2 weeks from 20th July. Hopefully some of the 'Mid July' vibe hangs around the following couple of weeks.
20 plus unless too warm i reckon
Pretty good southerly flow though from midday friday
Yep, agreed. 3-7pm is it's time to shine before things dry out.
I just don't think you'll see 4-5cm/hr fall rates in this thing tomorrow.
Snow in strange places sounds like the Mackay connection lol
well the low is centred north of the NSW alps
so you wouldn't think so
Thredbo off to have a coupla last minute, Friday night bumps, says EC with 2.5mm/hr over the next few hours.
Quick questionoh knowledgable ones,
Mum is driving home from Albury over the alpine way leaving around 9am, she is worried about the weather. I said Nah don't worry about it. Am i a bad daughter?
It’s coming down very heavily at DHG, settling about 1500m. Should only hold up and hour or two.
RMS should have it cleared by daylight IMO.