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Predictions 8-10th May - Preseason Chill Down

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 4, 2019.

  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it me or has Yr/EC backed off quite a bit?
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s backed off Vic resorts (with the exception of Baw Baw), yeah. Bit of Tassie shadowing IMO, whilst NSW benefits from that Southerly dip East of Tas, Friday PM.

    On the other hand South Central Vic (incl. Melb) looks good to go, while y’all sleeping tonight!
     
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  3. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM NSW CT’s up to 1100 from the 900m hopecast yesterday
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z is rather lacklustre . Streamlines/ shear and total precipitable water not joining hands in the Alpine regions where we wish them to be. 10 to 15cm for the Main Range imo.
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo might do ok circa 6 am tomorow but K Index numbers would suggest a very slim chance of Thunder IMO
     
  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I cannot see a XC ski rock hopper day in the works at Lake Mtn. this week. The cold front has weakened but for surfing on Monday at Westernport , I think it looks prime!
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Noreasterly snow
    *snow in strange places
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Purely wollongong based... but saturday morning will be bloody chilly and windy and a bit wild.
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC still shows Central VIC and Melbourne to be the big winner.

    Below IMO
    Buller: 10-20cm
    BB/LM: 10-25cm
    Falls/Hotham: 5-15cm
    Perisher and Thredbo: 10-20cm
     
    #159 Jellybeans, May 9, 2019
    Last edited: May 9, 2019
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  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not to write off EC... but i prefer the meso on AXS-R
    That rainfall pattern is a bit illogical SE of Thredbo.
    Hasn't taken into account valleys etc.
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah you could see a bit more, up to around 20cm/mm in that region.
    It's really about whether the more southerly low builds south of the Alps (EC), or over the Alps (AXS). The further north the low is, the easier it is to circle around and bring precipitation into the NSW Alps.
    I think it is a case of see what happens, maybe NSW could get higher numbers, but the chances aren't incredible IMO.
     
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  12. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 Hard Yards

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    Falls creek Instagram this morning posted something about 40-50cm of snow expected tomorrow, but have since deleted itLOL cold air has backed off but this sort of setup usually still produces snow down to lower levels than expected. Sat pic looks pretty nice
     
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  13. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like Jane has backed off on this event as well (going with EC model) calling 4cm for LM, 5cm for Buller and bb. A disappointing downgrade. Fingers still crossed for more than this. But ok, it's May.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think the cold air has backed off. The precipitation has.
     
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  15. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That was a weird forecast. Based on 850hPa temps alone 900m was well out of reach. 1100m seems about right which should see a light settling on the higher parts of the OP and out West (usual spots) plus a flurry or two in the BMs IMHO. Nice system for early May anyway.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Disappointing downgrade? Depends on where you're getting info from.
    It's never looked like >20cm (in any resort) from my POV. Sure 20mm precip has been in the models but that's over 2-3 days, some of which was above 0C/FL...
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's just an automated forecast though ?

    I reckon BawBaw will get a good foot easy.
     
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw baw maybe.
     
  19. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted

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    And Bom agrees...
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh, na.
    I think far from it.
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 cm for Baw Baw IMO
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll raise ya to 5-7cm;)
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the capacity is stronger for Perisher/Thredbo and the Southern resorts.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    On Monday, AXS(G) & EC were insync going for -2C at 850mb, with 500mb nudging -33C over the CTs. Big anom for May but regardless, that'll easily put snow down to 900m, even if your FL is ~1250m.
     
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  25. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ending midnight Friday.
     
  27. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair enuff. Must have looked after it dissappeared from the models.
     
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  28. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    What time do the brains trust expect some activity to commence tomorrow?
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very early morning (1-3am) tomorrow for VIC, a few hours later for NSW.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The GF is heading over to mine tonight so I am hoping ASAP.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Get it out of the way so you can watch weather at 1am?
     
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  32. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    And so the snow forecasting season begins :)
    I love the speculation, expert knowledge here and even the inevitable downgrades ...
    I am looking forward to August though :)
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think everybody is looking forward to it. Rock-hopping prediction season is fun, but we all want to get up on the hill :).
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mid July looks better than August
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always down for the 1am climax.
     
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  36. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Day trips for me July , week booked first week of August :) (sorry off topic )
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dedicated
    Thats alot of downtime
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic.
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry sandy, CC ... um?
     
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  40. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Where are you?
     
  41. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Suits me. At Perisher 2 weeks from 20th July. Hopefully some of the 'Mid July' vibe hangs around the following couple of weeks.
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    20 plus unless too warm i reckon
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty good southerly flow though from midday friday
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, agreed. 3-7pm is it's time to shine before things dry out.
    I just don't think you'll see 4-5cm/hr fall rates in this thing tomorrow.
     
  45. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Snow in strange places sounds like the Mackay connection lol
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    well the low is centred north of the NSW alps
    so you wouldn't think so
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo off to have a coupla last minute, Friday night bumps, says EC with 2.5mm/hr over the next few hours.
     
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  49. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quick questionoh knowledgable ones,

    Mum is driving home from Albury over the alpine way leaving around 9am, she is worried about the weather. I said Nah don't worry about it. Am i a bad daughter?
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s coming down very heavily at DHG, settling about 1500m. Should only hold up and hour or two.
    RMS should have it cleared by daylight IMO.
     
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