Predictions 8-11th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Has looked really good in the last 3 EC runs

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS onboard as well

     
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  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    This looks a lot better than 4-6th:
    [​IMG]
    About 9 oclock on this.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS has a NW rain event progged for the 8th with a cut-off scenario hit on the 9th.
    EC has it maybe peaking a little early hitting Aus Alps on the 8th - too early to say at the moment but looks ok.
    Moisture looks ok, but not quite a season starter if models weren't to change right now.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yr.no showing 30-40cm out of this.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    4-6 is really only a high level event. But it does kind of bust down the doors for this one.
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Yeah, that leading high gets smashed out of the way. Just want to see the trailing high old up over WA, give the system a better chance of a direct hit rather than peaking and sliding a bit.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    00Z GFS has gone right off this one - ECL for the previous system have changed this entirely. Lets see if EC follows suite.
     
  9. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I don't know yr.no but from what I've seen they use the same crystal ball as the grasshopper.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yr.no is just EC. It's not easy to get EC precipitation totals without paying for it (eg Accuweather)
     
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  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    All aboard the roller coaster.
     
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  12. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Thankyou CC
     
  13. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Looking at yr for Hotham.. The next 7 days has only 18hrs above zero.. 10cm 4-6th and 40cm 9th! That would be an awesome if accurate
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest EC run has this a little later - possibly due to the ECLs forecast for the previous system.
    The whole situation is rather fluid, so hold fire while this develops one way or another IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  15. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    A little birdy thinks that the first few days 4-6 moist with a little above 1800m untill later next week a good chance of quite a bit more above 1600m.
    EC suggests potential IMO
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    It's cooking nicely at the moment. And by cooking, I mean cooling. Plenty of juice swinging around Antarctica, just need it all to link up properly. High positioning is so much better than it was a couple of weeks ago.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS/GFS doesn't like it (yet).
    EC love it and has it peaking a little early around Adelaide - again, I think moisture could be a bit of an issue if it peaks where it's suggesting it will.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC shows plenty of moisture, however, a bunch of it appears be before it cools down.
    I don't think we'll get a real handle on this until the weekend. IMO
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS run suggests this is dead IMO.
    EC, perhaps we'll end up with a clipper

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    High moves in too fast and pushes everything south.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's back on GFS

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    The wild ride continues.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    mehhhhhhhhh
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    better than this morning!
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A weird little backflip from GFS. All models seem to be thrown by the ideal ECL/trough-brewing conditions in the Tasman over the next week.
    Come Sunday, AXS/GFS both have a central pressure over NZ of around 1036-1040hPa.
    Some very warm eddies in the Tasman and SW pacific (North of NZ) which appear to be conveyor belt-ing the moisutre down the east coast of Aus. This is converse to cooler waters in the bight.
    Personally, I think this explains some large variances in runs this week. The best case scenarios (of 30-40cm snowfall) are over-exaggerating IMHO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Not seeing much to like with EC this afternoon.
     
  25. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    yr.no calling 2 foot plus of snow at Perisher level 6-9 june
     
  26. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    If only it were true:(
     
  27. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    One minute flood next minute dumpage.. Which way will it go??
     
  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Let's call it the 6 o'clock swill. Get them flippers off it's going to be puking...
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Marginal on Saturday and Sunday, but a lot better on Monday and Tuesday.
    Unfortunately the 24 hour snapshots on the EC publicly available don't capture it well.

    Also note that NSW is showing temperatures a fair bit lower temps than Victoria.
     
  30. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Dylan will come good.
     
  31. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Hope not ;)

     
  32. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Yr.no mount perisher predictions are for 2054m not resort level, (1605m - 2034m) unfortunately. all I see is wet, wet, wet, IMO. I hope I am way off but.
     
  33. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    actually i went resort level 1719m
    top of mt p showing 3 foot. not saying its gospel but uts what it shows now
     
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  34. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    You fellas are just too hopeful. There is no decent snow due in this system or those in the foreseeable future. Tis global warming I'm afraid
     
  35. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    A trademark 2ft storm would be appropriate.
     
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  36. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    You really fell for the warm sell didn't you!
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS still has some hope for higher levels. I'm not convinced.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    The best hope is for maybe 10 cents at the end IMO. It will be wet then freeze with a man made top......lovely conditions for the opening weekend.
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  41. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Hard to see good in this apart from the usual ground cooking comments
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Fair call. I just don't think it's quite dead yet.
     
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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Still "something" there on spag.
     
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Back end
     
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  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    I'm happy to call snow forming on the 9th, lasting till 10th. 10cm IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    Plenty Moisture but cold air is limited 850-700.. Nice little low though & a very interesting pattern. Been following the discussion and love the info. I live in Te Anau now. Bought a 3 Peaks and lovin the dumps we've had so far but this system is really interesting.
    As off Nullschool it looks to be a significant Cut Off (I would think?) Temps are high at SFC but interesting change at 700Hpa.
    I'm a newb.. Cheers
    [​IMG]
     
  47. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    22.5cm at top
     
  48. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Yr Hotham 6-11th this morning shows 90cm for the period:cool:
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC really liking the possibilities at the end of this date range and into the long weekend IMO.
     
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