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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.
Has looked really good in the last 3 EC runs
GFS onboard as well
This looks a lot better than 4-6th:
About 9 oclock on this.
GFS has a NW rain event progged for the 8th with a cut-off scenario hit on the 9th.
EC has it maybe peaking a little early hitting Aus Alps on the 8th - too early to say at the moment but looks ok.
Moisture looks ok, but not quite a season starter if models weren't to change right now.
yr.no showing 30-40cm out of this.
4-6 is really only a high level event. But it does kind of bust down the doors for this one.
Yeah, that leading high gets smashed out of the way. Just want to see the trailing high old up over WA, give the system a better chance of a direct hit rather than peaking and sliding a bit.
00Z GFS has gone right off this one - ECL for the previous system have changed this entirely. Lets see if EC follows suite.
I don't know yr.no but from what I've seen they use the same crystal ball as the grasshopper.
yr.no is just EC. It's not easy to get EC precipitation totals without paying for it (eg Accuweather)
All aboard the roller coaster.
Looking at yr for Hotham.. The next 7 days has only 18hrs above zero.. 10cm 4-6th and 40cm 9th! That would be an awesome if accurate
Latest EC run has this a little later - possibly due to the ECLs forecast for the previous system.
The whole situation is rather fluid, so hold fire while this develops one way or another IMO
A little birdy thinks that the first few days 4-6 moist with a little above 1800m untill later next week a good chance of quite a bit more above 1600m.
EC suggests potential IMO
It's cooking nicely at the moment. And by cooking, I mean cooling. Plenty of juice swinging around Antarctica, just need it all to link up properly. High positioning is so much better than it was a couple of weeks ago.
AXS/GFS doesn't like it (yet).
EC love it and has it peaking a little early around Adelaide - again, I think moisture could be a bit of an issue if it peaks where it's suggesting it will.
EC shows plenty of moisture, however, a bunch of it appears be before it cools down.
I don't think we'll get a real handle on this until the weekend. IMO
Latest GFS run suggests this is dead IMO.
EC, perhaps we'll end up with a clipper
High moves in too fast and pushes everything south.
It's back on GFS
The wild ride continues.
better than this morning!
A weird little backflip from GFS. All models seem to be thrown by the ideal ECL/trough-brewing conditions in the Tasman over the next week.
Come Sunday, AXS/GFS both have a central pressure over NZ of around 1036-1040hPa.
Some very warm eddies in the Tasman and SW pacific (North of NZ) which appear to be conveyor belt-ing the moisutre down the east coast of Aus. This is converse to cooler waters in the bight.
Personally, I think this explains some large variances in runs this week. The best case scenarios (of 30-40cm snowfall) are over-exaggerating IMHO.
Not seeing much to like with EC this afternoon.
yr.no calling 2 foot plus of snow at Perisher level 6-9 june
If only it were true
One minute flood next minute dumpage.. Which way will it go??
Let's call it the 6 o'clock swill. Get them flippers off it's going to be puking...
Marginal on Saturday and Sunday, but a lot better on Monday and Tuesday.
Unfortunately the 24 hour snapshots on the EC publicly available don't capture it well.
Also note that NSW is showing temperatures a fair bit lower temps than Victoria.
Dylan will come good.
Yr.no mount perisher predictions are for 2054m not resort level, (1605m - 2034m) unfortunately. all I see is wet, wet, wet, IMO. I hope I am way off but.
actually i went resort level 1719m
top of mt p showing 3 foot. not saying its gospel but uts what it shows now
here are the four links for yr.no NSW that matter.
Thredbo Village - 1350m
Perisher Village 1720m
Mount Perisher 1930m
Mount Kosciuszko 2228m
You fellas are just too hopeful. There is no decent snow due in this system or those in the foreseeable future. Tis global warming I'm afraid
A trademark 2ft storm would be appropriate.
You really fell for the warm sell didn't you!
Stay on topic.
GFS still has some hope for higher levels. I'm not convinced.
The best hope is for maybe 10 cents at the end IMO. It will be wet then freeze with a man made top......lovely conditions for the opening weekend.
Hard to see good in this apart from the usual ground cooking comments
Fair call. I just don't think it's quite dead yet.
Still "something" there on spag.
I'm happy to call snow forming on the 9th, lasting till 10th. 10cm IMO.
Plenty Moisture but cold air is limited 850-700.. Nice little low though & a very interesting pattern. Been following the discussion and love the info. I live in Te Anau now. Bought a 3 Peaks and lovin the dumps we've had so far but this system is really interesting.
As off Nullschool it looks to be a significant Cut Off (I would think?) Temps are high at SFC but interesting change at 700Hpa.
I'm a newb.. Cheers
22.5cm at top
Yr Hotham 6-11th this morning shows 90cm for the period
EC really liking the possibilities at the end of this date range and into the long weekend IMO.