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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.
Perisher totals on the back end near 50cm
Yep i recon your right.
I probably over cooked the Spag analysis for this weekend. Main range gets so hammered by westerlies, so I am always looking for snow from the east, which is really not that great for resorts, but great for the higher north faces.
This system is looking minty.
GFS a hell of a lot better - not quite an alignment with EC, a little earlier, but colder.
It definitely looks better on the Spag than this weekend. But then sort of flattens out over the south east.
I forgot about the light blue lines. I think this may develop into an event.
Back end changing for the better. Hope it keeps improving but still a long way out. The previous system appears to be settling down so hopefully the model progression wont change so much now.
I'm no expert, in fact I'm mostly a plonk on this stuff but from what lord Donza has mentioned looking for consistency in the two control lines is a good indication something might happen.
Yowzers, improving with every run on GFS
Starting to think this system may well bare fruit towards its back half anyway. Still not entirely on it yet but 30 - 40 cms wouldnt be a surprise , either would a bucketload of rain for that matter.
That looks pretty decent all of a sudden
Check back in on this on Sunday #4 day rule.
(If not before )
Yr,no now saying 70 cm at the back end at Perisher Village. Can we keep it at that please.
Still showing 90cm for Hotham Mid Monday on.. (For the week)
2ft Storm TM
Mountainwatch jumping on board with a 'possible blizzard' this Thursday.
Is it all aboard the opening weekend promotional train, or is this for real?
Needs more -AAO
Blizzard just means windy with snow. And still a long way from locked in but improving with every run.
The system is a little too early for @janesweather
riding the bike to deniliquin on the 10th and camping in a swag.
Keeping an eye on this hoping not to get too wet on the 10/11/12th zzz.
I'm sorry, but I hope you get very wet and cold.
Now thats not real nice
Its looking good TM.
GFS has the existing through / low/ ECL morphing in with the cold air blast 8 to 9 th system and there is no respite (high) until 240 hrs out. If Cold air uppers hang in there..
Best chance yet of a good fall.
Access G suggesting 20 - 30 cm Friday 9, 10 cm Saturday 10.
perhaps a little.
Perhaps hint that the 11th could produce as well.
Cheers Mate, it's great following the discussion on here. Very active participants with varying amounts of info being thrown around. Whether it be expert advice or just people who have sound knowledge/experience on certain subjects really creates great topics of discussion. I hope I can mix in and provide my point of view whilst learning a lot as well.
Keep it up. My first Season in NZ so really looking forward to it and I hope my timing is a good one. Looks good at the moment but like I said and everyone is interested in is this bizzare start of season set up.
Let it Dump.
That EC run has all the hallmarks of a season starter from 9-11th there. That second lick of cold air in the bight looks ready to traject at the mainland alps. The next few days runs should reveal the possibility.
GFS also has it hinted in the 00z run.
Open that date range to include the 11/12th?
If it hangs in tomorrow's runs I will.
There's call for another prediction range. Looks like a stall to me unless that big high over WA pushes over the top ie: Grasshopper. Models are very divergent as models go. NZ is up for some very interesting feeds over that period 4 day rule..!!
EC has the High positioned better, no doubt about it. GFS leans a little more for an NZ gain. We're too far out though.
If it holds, season starter IMO
Just not so keen that it's happening on opening weekend as that is usually a bad omen to a season...
She's on holiday anyway - I follow her on Instagram and she's been putting up pics from QLD. She might miss this bit of exciting weather!
Oh if she's in QLD she will cop this
This is 8th through to 10th. Cold and Moist. Cold lagging slightly. Looks fabulous for opening weekend.
Spag looking hawt this morning.
8-9th, 11th, 14-15th.
GFS has the 11th lacking a little moisture and maybe a clipper. EC has things positioned better for alps snow. Certainly looks cold enough.
9th on the otherhand has temps marginal for the alps (snow above 1700m at this stage) with a lot of moisture. This trough/ECL is throwing things I think.
I don't see an upgrade but looks to be one to follow (9-11th).
Yr no would be 1.2m beginning to end on MtP. I can't remember the last time I saw such huge numbers on yr no
What's the likelihood of there being any base ? Or are we just going to sink straight to the bottom skiing on the QBW ?
Even 20% of those totals would be a good outcome.
No base whatsoever for QBW. Not uncommon.
Would like to know this
9 to 11oclock here is looking pretty good, thats the system we're talking about: