Predictions 8-11th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.

  1. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am predicting good falls before Friday. Slightly off topic, I predict at Perisher, Normo and crew will be out Friday packing down a base for us, ready for us Saturday.

    Sorry CC.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This is looking solid IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure does. Although, I am keen to see GFS 00Z run.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That is the 00Z run.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry! EC I mean.
     
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  6. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    opening weekend not looking so bad
     
  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    No skiing but I think It will be snowing IMO
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair bit of pre-frontal on Wednesday.
    GFS suggests high pressure ridges into the East Coast suppressing follow-up on the 11th June front... But still way too far out.
    [​IMG]
     
    #108 POW_hungry, Jun 4, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2016
  9. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    This looks good to me
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has it slipping a bit south.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its not convincing yet.

    This system has to come out in the wash first.
     
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  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM has shifted to more align with where yr.no was on the last published run. Hopefully the next update (within the next hour) remains a flip rather than a flop ...

    I'm not confident on a "King's Friday" test day at Front Valley - just too messy this week to see them going for an early opener - Last year was 2 straight days of hard work on the Wed/Thur with glorious cold sunshine to work through - after several freezing cold nites of super dry snow making. At best they'll still be hard at work on the Friday pushing snot around - albeit a healthy dump.

    But nonetheless on Thursday I'll be packed ready to head south for an Awesome early start ... bring it on!
     
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  13. Ludaning

    Ludaning Hard Yards

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    I'll be arriving Jindy Friday night. Fingers crossed for some white stuff.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 12Z suggests a better positioning of the Low with a better chance of falls in the 10-15cm range. As for the follow-up on the 11th, it's going for a low off which lacks moisture and much substance at all really.
    EC has a green light for the 9th as well with the 11th being push south by the ridging high.

    I think 5-10cm is possible from Thursday mid-morning with a fair bit of pre-frontal rain Wednesday eve.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    11th still there on spag ensemble IMO.
     
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  16. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Not much talk or excitement on this anymore or maps with blue bubbles and the like . Do I detect a fizzer?
     
  17. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personally I like the look of whats coming through Adelaide atm, it has that fist within the glove look, might push up better than expected on Tues.
     
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  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I was just looking at the BoM forecast. Might surprise.
     
  19. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Yr still liking Tues onwards, albeit with lower totals than 2 days ago
     
  20. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Bom now bullish, but yr. no backed right off, still a lot to happen yet, models flip flopping so realistically IMO lucky if we have 20cm at the end of this system. At least there looks like there will be something to build a base on.
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Need some cold air injection.
     
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  22. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesdays system is wandering and isolated. 2-5cm net gain. imo

    Wednesday night rain turning to snow Thursday morning.

    Then scattered flurries Friday. 20cm net gain. imo.

    Not a fizzer yet. But certainly a significant downgrade.
     
  23. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    warmer and wetter ......
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Wetness. Storm surges, Waves, Floods, Offshore and may be a bit of snow.
     
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A bit of voodoo might get the 500 hpa ensembles over the line.
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  27. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    id typically look at that 4 dayer and think 'snow'
     
  29. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
     
  30. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I don't think the air is coming from far enough south. By the time it's cold enough most of the moisture will be gone.
     
  31. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z now in. This is Thursday's moisture and 500 temps. There is significant alignment of moisture and temps. I'm sticking with my 20cm net gain. Optimally 30cm. imo.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'll go with 5-10cm on Thursday
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's "ok" but not brilliant. It's peaking a little too far to the west for best effect though.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Lots of snow in Tasmania.
     
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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    STILL NEEDS A BIT MORE VOODOO>SNOW
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM (Snowies)

    Monday 6 June
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Heavy rain at times. Snow falling above 1600 metres. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning westerly in the evening.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Tuesday 7 June
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    40% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Wednesday 8 June
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h turning northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Thursday 9 June
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah nah for Mount Perisher

    [​IMG]
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've got my fingers crossed for the season opening.
     
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  38. Ludaning

    Ludaning Hard Yards

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    All this moisture and not a bit of snow. That sucks.
     
  39. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Sorry you've lost me ,what are you talking about ?
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wrong thread, wrong date range.
     
  41. Ludaning

    Ludaning Hard Yards

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    Lol. Yep just noticed. My apologies
     
  42. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think @telecrag is about to get his wish.. I think we have a fist.
     
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  43. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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  44. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Up high will do just fine Imo (ie Perisher) but there is a chance Buller could surprise....
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks weaker again on the 06Z GFS run.
    IMO
     
  46. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just looking at that. Less moisture when temps align.
     
  47. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looks steady for 5cm (best case-10) from mid-morning Thursday NSW resorts. Accumulation above 1600m likely. Cold air is too little too late.
    Ridging high dominates The Bight and discounts follow-up on the 11th. EC & GFS seem to agree.
     
  49. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still hanging in there.
     
  50. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, becoming less likely this afternoon. Snow falling above 1700 metres in the evening. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the day.
    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Tuesday 7 June
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    40% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Wednesday 8 June
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h turning northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Thursday 9 June
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m