Predictions 8-11th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.

  1. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    yr.no has snow in the forecast for Jindabyne Saturday.
     
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  2. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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  3. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    I'm back from holidays, and gearing up for snow forecasts to properly start this Friday. But here's a pre-forecast for the conditions this week: http://www.janebunn.net/latest-posts
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Brilliant. Main Range could be on after that.
     
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  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  6. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Interesting how different forecasters can have such divergent predictions for this period: Jane is optimistic of a reasonable fall, Mountainwatch are uncommonly cautious, while Snowatch wins this week's pessimism award (no natural snow until late in June).
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    People still look at these? :confused:
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    for lols.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    00Z GFS run

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    GFS is not quite buying into anything much on the 11th

    [​IMG]

    IMO 10-15cm for mine as it currently stands.
     
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  10. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Mountainwatch has great entertainment value ... PS are you casting aspersions upon Jane? ;)
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Did I quote your bit about Jane's website? ;)
     
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  12. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Slider.
     
  14. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    slid
     
  15. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    GFS has the high sinking lower too early on friday stopping front coming through this will change IMO
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC - no better or worse than yesterday's 00z run
    [​IMG]

    Still can't see too much out of the 11th, though.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    That is a massive high
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yep, squashing it out.
     
  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM Snowies update

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower about the ranges, most likely later this evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Tuesday 7 June
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1400 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Wednesday 8 June
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

    Chance of snow
    0% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Thursday 9 June
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning. Snow falling above 1700 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the day then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Friday 10 June
    Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Medium (40%) chance of rain in the west, near zero chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  20. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Looking at the Sat pic it looks cold south of WA where does this end up It doesnt seem to show up on forecast charts.
     
  21. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    N.Z. South Island about Sat.
     
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  22. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Have a look at the High Pressure system parked over NZ ATM
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, it's been there for a week, come Wednesday... It's on it's bike by the end of the week. NZ will do will out of this.
     
  24. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Looks pretty good to me.
     

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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    It's peaking earlier than we'd like, but damn is there some cold energy in it:
    [​IMG]
    I'm hoping it'll clear the way and have some lingering goodness (cold and moisture) for the front behind it. Looking very nodey at the bottom of our world at the moment.
     
  26. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Mt Perisher over 40cm on Thursday says yr.no
     
  27. kiter

    kiter Active Member

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    what is the track record of yr.no
     
  28. Phil_

    Phil_ Active Member

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    Oh happy days!!!keep it coming !
     
  29. TDS

    TDS Active Member

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    Good
    Good question,

    How accurate are they actually?

    Can someone shed some light on this?
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Not very. Still a computer model with minimal human input with little understanding of the individual microclimates.

    If you are relying on a model to tell you how much snow is going to fall, you'll end up disappointed more often than not.
     
  31. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Yr.no uses EC. Like all the models, suffers in the seasonal transitions.
     
  32. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    This. Your best source of forecasts is right here (and janesweather.com)
     
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  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Most importantly, a human can look at a model and go 'yeah nah that's not going to happen' a model just puts in the info and spits out a number.
     
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  34. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture
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  35. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    so this system is currently going through Perth. If history is anything to go by, I reckon 50cm. A huge amount of moisture with really decent rainfalls in Perth and across the SW land division. Very cold and not much prefrontal stuff...

    This system is looking good!
     
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  36. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    There is a fair bit of juice being pulled in from the tropics over WA
     
  37. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    AAO still isn't that good at present. That's what's holding this one back from being epic IMO.

    GFS has the coldest air coming through on Saturday but by then the barometric pressure is getting too high.
     
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  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    You're not concerned about it peaking too early?
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks to me that it definitely peaks too early

     
  40. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    hasnt in the past. Maximum in Perth today is 15 C and it is bucketing down.

    To be honest I have not looked at the charts at all, I'm just going by previous experience. When a front like this comes through Perth, Huey shines on the high country.
     
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    No worries, hope so! I dont see it personally, but that doesnt mean i'm right.
     
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  42. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    If you were describing conditions in Adelaide then it would be party time. Perth systems tend to slide or fizz. Imo.
     
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  43. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Vibes are as good a forecast as models these days
     
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  44. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    GFS 18Z Uppers didn't look as cold for Thursday. Any comments ? Moisture looks fine.
     
  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    I think you'll be correct.
    Any system that 'punches' in that direction tends not to deliver a lot imo.
    Will most likely slide/decay imo
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Has looked that way for a while IMO
     
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  47. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Cold cored system this one over in southern WA. Down on the Capes, the temps actually dropped before the moisture arrived and the vast majority of the rain fell (36mm overnight at my place) at just above 10 degrees. For us that is cool, and not as common to have the precipitation coming down near single figures.

    But was also raining at the same time in Pilbara and Gascoyne in the low to mid twenties, and it looks like the bulk of precip will come from this residual tropical indeed by the time this system spins across east. Maybe something cooler in the tail, but not enough to excited I think.
     
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  48. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Addicted Member
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    this has potential...as systems passing thro mts at moment are pretty useless in producing any amount of significance..

    grounds wet and cold and I suppose we expect less warm weather to affect us from the nth...
    Bears looking at this system coming over WA with interest...;);)
     
  49. woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

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    Tis a very strong cold system though - Carnavon (-28.8S lat) is barely cracking 12C; that's Cape Byron latitude!

    From my experience only, these strong WA systems are invariably SE sliders though .... :(
     
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  50. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Thursday morning is so marginal it could swing either way, IMO.