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Predictions 8-11th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.

  1. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep ...so this system if it reaches the Alps has blizzard potential...:metun::metun:
     
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  2. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, very cool, relatively, in WA with the deep southerly fetch running up the west coast. Don't so much think this system is sliding, more the moisture that actually reaches the Alps in the prefrontal looking like it is the remnants of the warm tropical band that went through the north west yesterday / last night, with much of the cold, blustery southerly moisture having spun itself out by the times is gets east.

    But has a little potential.
     
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  3. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like it's almost summer on GFS. Hope the moisture stays away with those temps.
     
  4. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Weatherzone just changed their forecast for Perisher again again again!
    Upgraded to snow all day for tomorrow up to 20mm!
    Now is an awesome time for them to stop changing their mind:thumbs::eek::nerd:

    Please!
     
    #204 Adelaidometer, Jun 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2016
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I just can't see it.
    850hPa temps between 2 & 4C all day
    500hPa temps -10C!!!!
    [​IMG]

    (this is the 00Z GFS run).
    I won't say no chance, but I would rate it very unlikely IMO

    Luckily there's not much to see tomorrow IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    To me, we won't see snow until Thursday, late morning.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hate to dash your hopes. But CC is spot on. If that 20mm falls. It will all be liquid snow. IMO

    This is 10pm today to 10pm tomorrow Uppers. Very warm.

     
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  8. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Perth looks like having there coldest day in any month for a while.
     
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  9. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    BOM has rain for tomorrow, then snow showers Thurs, Fri and Saturday. Only small totals, but also looks like snow making opportunity later in the LWE. Maybe some runs open next week on man made?
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  10. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Perisher will open on the Weekend front valley IMO
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    All looking very marginal to me. Bugger all below 1600m, perhaps 10cm up to 1800m.
    Above 1800m might do a bit better, but 20cm would be best case. IMO
     
    #211 Claude Cat, Jun 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2016
  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Snowies update, look at that Saturday call

    Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
    Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (20%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Wednesday 8 June
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending north to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    Below 5% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Thursday 9 June
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers about the ranges, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h tending west to northwesterly in the morning.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Friday 10 June
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1400 metres. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 11 June
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1100 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
     
  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Normo will be doing more than the magic carpet I suspect.
     
  14. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    WHOA!! Latest synoptic!!!

    Nice complex L forming east of Esperance!!

    Who remembers the ex-tropical cyclone that travelled from north of Perth to the Snowys in time for the opening weekend and dumped 60cm? Mid to late 90's I think.

    This system reminds me of that :D :D
     
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  15. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope you are on to something. Some dynamic systems which one would hope might bring something of interest.
     
  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    CC might want to extend the date by 1 day :)
     
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  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the weather map and the current radar over SA - how can it not end up pouring with rain tomorrow. This looks like Barry all over again. A season 2013 Redux?
     
  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO Wednesday should be OK, Thursday however...
     
  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM currently has that reversed
     
  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM 4 dayer > rest, but you never know, EC could be right for a change.
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday has pretty much disappeared on gfs and axs.
    EC anyone?
     
  22. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    GFS & AXS looking good for 20cm > 1500m Thursday
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC doesn't like Thursday but likes Saturday, IMO.
     
  24. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Uppers look warmer. Looking at satelite. Low not pulling in a huge amount of cold air. And a warm northerly stream is feeding infront of it. When we have daylight over South Australia on the satelite, we'll get a better picture.

    But this system is abolute borderline IMO.
     
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO - Son of Barry - is set to return.
     
  26. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I'm struggling to see much more than 15-20cm in this.

    Next week could be a good one for snow-making though. It could be very frosty over much of South-eastern Australia.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Concur. Better than nothing.
     
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  28. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Location:
    Kings-bloody-wood, NSW, Australia
    BOM (NSW) currently reporting this:

    "Further west, a strong cold front and associated cloud band is affecting South
    Australia with middle level cloud streaming into western NSW and Victoria. This
    front connects to an intense low pressure system across the Bight with a
    secondary low centre located near the southern Western Australia coast."

    That L is better positioned than most coming from the west - the usual fear is a SE slide. If it tracks generally E, will be a very interesting system, especially with the front behind it.

    Crucial positioning of H west of Perth will make or break this party.
     
  29. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Until some cold southerly air comes in I can't see much goodness. Maybe Buller and B.B. might see some love on Sat. but looking pretty dry by then.
     
  30. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Excuse my ignorance, but what was Barry?
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    A really good system last season.
    Systems won't be named this year I'm imagining.
    Did bring lots of traffic here last year if I recall. Was seeing reference to Barry on all sorts of media platforms.
     
  32. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please everyone make this so
     
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  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off-topic...
    Thing is, that's precisely the nonsense that will keep this site and forum relevant in the world of social media. Have a look at Jane Bunn.
    Definitive forecasting, exaggerated language etc. (not hating on her btw)
     
  34. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Ground cooling - wet snot cement for base building - PB Front Valley slide for the marketing teams - snow making ops post event = tick for me IMO ....anything better a bonus, it's only June 8th. As we saw last handful of seasons, under right conditions we can go from grass to 50 cent base easily. Will be nice to see REAL weather, white cams and youthful optimism all round ;)
     
    #234 snowblowa, Jun 8, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2016
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  35. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My forecasts are entirely based on what I can see on the radar, and the vibe. I reckon the band of moisture coming down may provide a bit of stuff that snow gets made of sometimes but maybe not this time, but not too much, maybe even snot up high. But the moisture looks to be sucking back up from the south, with cold air, and pushing up harder than expected, so I think Saturday might be fun. Bom thinks it will dry as it cools though by the look.
     
  36. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM has issued a flood watch for N.E. Vic for tomorrow with 60-70mm poss. in the ranges. Doesn't sound good when combined with the G.F.S. temps that are forecast.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 10:45 am EST on Wednesday 8 June 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A low pressure system over the Bight with an associated trough will move eastwards and cross Victoria during Thursday.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast to develop this evening for elevated parts of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts, mostly above 1200 metres elevation.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think that's a reflection of how soaked the catchments up there are already.
     
  39. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, will be interesting to see there updated forecasts soon. 4 weeks ago it was dry as a chip. Huge change in general weather patterns.
     
  40. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the warning:

    "Catchments are fairly saturated following recent rainfall and significant stream rises are expected in the North East catchments. Minor flooding is possible from early Thursday morning onwards."

    Not such a bad thing though. Melbourne's catchments, and dams like Dartmouth, Eildon and Hume all have plenty of capacity to soak up flooding on the major rivers (Goulburn, Murray, Mitta Mitta). The other worries would be the King and Ovens and flooding through Wangaratta. Nillahcootie can take flooding on the Broken.

    Could be interesting though if we have any further systems this month on top of this one.
     
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  41. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Fill the lakes again would be nice.
     
  42. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Update (Snowies)

    A bit of everything really.

    Forecast for the rest of Wednesday
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain about the ranges, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

    Chance of snow
    10% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Thursday 9 June
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain about the ranges, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1600 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h turning westerly in the late morning then decreasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the evening.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    50% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Friday 10 June
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of rain. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Patchy morning fog. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 11 June
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 1100 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    40% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
     
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  43. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I cant see anything in this, Thursday looks to be all rain, maybe something above 2000m, maybe 5cm if we are lucky on Saturday down to 1500m and snow snowmaking on Sunday.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 cm for the snowies late tonight.
     
  45. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ill ride a quad to the top of thredbo and let you know around 2-3am HA, not sure i want to get wet though.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not cold enough. Things start to change around 4am, but even then 7am is more likely. And then up high only

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  47. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Struggling to see where all this moisture is coming from. Still looks pretty dry at the moment.
     
  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snot for mine which is OK for base building if temps play the game next week.
    My vibe again saying see you in (later ?) July and beyond for the biz.
    Read as carpets and V8 not on my page but all good for those that do enjoy that layer fwiw
     
  49. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    I'm taking the kids down for a Front Valley spin on Sunday. Will be good to blow the cobwebs out. I expect the snowmakers and groomers will have it looking the goods.

    Prediction is 5cm tomorrow and 5-10cm into Saturday plus man made. All up above 1600m.
     
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  50. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    4am for me maybe 2