Predictions 8-11th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 31, 2016.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    I can't see any snowmaking weather until saturday night at the earliest. Will need to be a good natural fall if anything is going to open before Monday IMO.
     
  2. Mtn2Sea

    Mtn2Sea Active Member

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    My memory may be a little hazy, but I think in 2013 Front Valley looked much as it does today on the Saturday and only the carpet was open. The temp dropped Saturday night, they cranked up the snowmakers and Sunday morning the V8 was spinning with riders left of Front Valley open and a little terrain park in front of the Pub. The opening weekend vibe made up for the rest.
     
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  3. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Yr.no predictions have been consistently 1-2 deg. C warmer than actual so far in May and June for Perisher. At least temps are now closer to freeze levels and still a bit of moisture left. Maybe a wet 10 to 20cm by Sunday in this. A lot of work for snow makers to do after that.
     
  4. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    Looking at the radar and satellite seems to be colder air and moisture moving through Mt Gambier. I predict from the direction the moisture is travelling we may have some joy in the alps later this afternoon.
     
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  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Posting this here because I want to make a Prediction.

    So the low looks like it's spinning easterly in Bass Strait and not sliding away as badly as the models predicted. If anything it looks to have a slightly northerly track.

    Decend levels of cold air behind it. I can see decent falls when that cold mass hits the apline region.

    Anyone else see something different.

     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO it will still get squashed by the high. Even in the above it looks like it's stalling.
     
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  7. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Thanks CC.

    So moving onto Sat 11th. This is 18Z GFS from Friday arvo to late Sat. Looks like a healthy amount of moisture.

    Uppers start at about -20deg when the moisture arrives and just keeps getting colder. So I'm expecting most of this as snow. So maybe up to 20cm IMO.


     
  8. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    It does appear to have a more southerly fetch rather than a westerly as predicted. But it could just bounce off the high and turn south easterly.
     
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  9. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    The BOM has had it as a southwesterly for a few days now. Jane's forecast from last Monday hasn't been far off the mark up til now either.
    Cross fingers they're both right for Saturday coz there's sfa behind it in the medium term that I could see this morning. Anyone else see anything? (Did notice a mainland low on the extended GFS this morning.:eek:)
     
    #259 PMG, Jun 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2016
  10. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    See bugger all after this like yourself. Hope it changes though.
     
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  11. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I'm sticking with Buller and B.B getting some love on Sat. 5-10
     
  12. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Sat is going to be cold and a very quick 10-15cm IMO
     
  13. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    BOM has some good snow for Hotham next few days
     
  14. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM Update (Snowies) - Wind hold on the Perisher magic carpet ?

    Forecast for the rest of Thursday
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1800 metres. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

    Chance of snow
    50% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Friday 10 June
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers or drizzle about the ranges, near zero chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Patchy morning fog in the west. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 11 June
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the west, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres, lowering to 1000 metres by evening. Possible small hail with showers in the southwest in the afternoon and evening. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h turning south to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    60% at 1400m
    20% at 1000m
    Sunday 12 June
    Mostly sunny. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    10% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
  15. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    The latest BOM has snow down to 800 m for Vic. on Sat. " I would like to see that ".
     
  16. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Maybe for an hour or 2 in the morning
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO looking at GFS - snow down to 1600m early am Saturday (possibly starting late Friday), then another burst later in the afternoon, snow to lower levels. Neither looks substantial, but perhaps 10-15cm total if things go real well.
     
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  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Looking at AXS R its showing most of the precipitation falling as rain before the colder air arrives. So i'd say rain friday night followed by 5-15cm on saturday-sunday. But a few good nights of snow making after that. Thinks this will let NSW resorts open up a run or two for later next week.
     
  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Saturday morning will give us 10-15 cms in NSW and 5-10cms in Vic. Cant see any more than that and just hope rain doesnt reduce that total by much. Not much on the ground for opening weekend but could be a few good snowmaking nights coming up.
     
  20. PowWow

    PowWow Active Member

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    Thoughts on snow making conditions from tomorrow into Sunday? Dry enough after the 10-15cm?
     
  21. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Could be on the money there. Cant see any joy at all for Victoria.
     
  22. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    A few hours early sunday morning then sunday night, monday night and tuesday night look good IMO.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    It's after 4:30pm, therefore it's time for another Snowies update from the BoM:

    Forecast for the rest of Friday
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers about the alpine peaks, near zero chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 11 June
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible small hail in the west in the afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h turning southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the late morning and afternoon.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    Sunday 12 June
    Sunny. Morning frost. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning.

    Chance of snow
    Below 5% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  24. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    I'm officially calling today's offering a clipper. Arriving shortly at VIC resorts. But all done by mid afternoon. Maybe 10cm at VIC resorts right in the firing line. But 5cm elsewhere IMO.

     
  25. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I can't see anything like 10cm in it.

    Hope I'm wrong though
     
  26. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    I cant see anything at all
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not much has changed in the last 3-4 days (at least) of model runs. The forecasted pressure was always going to dry things up quickly. Melbourne is already at 1025hPa.
    Since about Tuesday/ Wednesday the models have suggested ~5cm for today.