Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Low confidence of a strong cold front to influence the alps arriving on Saturday 7th May. Both ECMWF & AccessG is off the charts with lots of pre-frontal (50mm+) but at 240hrs both suggest to have a strong west-Sou-Westerly flow complete with trailing cold pool. A cut-off low is certainly flaunted with on both models.
    Snow is certainly possible on Sunday 8th May.

    Yes, I understand it's a fickle time of year to read into models (esp 240hrs+) however I am simply highlighting the interpreted data. No chance of me suggesting possible snow depths but I'd put it in the 60% chance of snowfall in the Aus mainland alps at this stage, for this date range.

    *UPDATE* Charts below are hosted/static and will not update.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2016
  2. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Do we really want snowfall at this point in time ? If it happens , apart from helping to cool the ground a bit but wont achieve much else. Considering how few coldies actually impact the Aussie Hills that some would consider it a wasted opportunity I guess.
     
  3. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    Doesn't matter really. Only helps get excitement up and relief of the dreaded SDS. We can all retrieve our gear, line it up, check it out and go and buy some new gear if the old gear APPEARS to have gone past it! ;)
     
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  4. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    At this time of year this is probably pretty important in helping the next snowfall to actually get the season started.
     
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  5. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Already done , gear checked and added to , new pants , jacket , sox , gloves. New skis and poles as well , boots only 1 season old. All sorted and ready to rock and roll. Now the wait begins. :cheers:
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Long way out, but perhaps

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    9 oclock on this run:
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Spag looks ok.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    I'm onboard for a decent may showing

    nothing to settle though
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Axs for 8/5 is huge. Would be more than settling
     
  11. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Looks massive. But this far out, it's a coin toss.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Look at Nz on the end of that loop!
     
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  13. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Just watch it warm with every run (as already has on axs)
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Just be happy there's something there. This far out it's going to chop and change between each run.
     
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  15. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Yep, just going to enjoy some weather.
    Ill start worrying in June about snow bearing systems
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Gut feel says it will be too warm, but lets see how it progresses.
     
  17. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Too warm to settle imo
     
  18. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    But it will graupel or sleet
     
  19. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    base builder
     
  20. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    It's good for me if we just get some 'weather' - a cold-ish blast gets people thinking about skiing.
     
  21. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    agree... I am sick of this 'indian' autumn we are experiencing in Sydney
     
  22. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    As a golfer I'm enjoying it but it's not good for business. Apologies about OT in the first 'proper' weather thread of the winter mods ;)
     
  23. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Stay on......
     
  24. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    29 April charts already have it way south.
     
  25. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Should be another run this arvo. See what it says.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Spag looks f..k amazing
     
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  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Watch the models...will we see them lose enthusiasm and then ramp up at 4 days? Will this be the pattern?
    FTR I am expecting the season to start with a bang not a whimper and this looks like a bang.
     
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  28. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Here's hoping. As long as it's a bang followed by some consistency, and not a bang and fizzle.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS not in love
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I don't think the 6th was ever going to be much. Somewhere in 8-11th maybe but I doubt it
     
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  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I posted it moreso cause of the wack shape
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Definitely meh on GFS, perhaps a little later in this period.

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC tending to go with GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Meh
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    "Something", but not something much.
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I don't really care how cold it is... it just needs the isobars to point in the correct direction.. that will promote colder air .
    We don't need a fantastical system. We need duration
     
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  37. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Old And Crusty
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    It helps the marketing teams
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just for the record.
    Snow does not cool the ground..one iota.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I opened the window to the 6th because of the pre-frontal which impacts the SE states from the 6th as indicated on the charts in the lead post. Big variances in runs now. Large ridging on GFS & ECMWF says not likely.
    Looks like these blocking and ridging scenarios are not done with us yet!
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its seven days away..
    Its transeasonal modelling...
    Lets wait
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Models go off the rails.
    Which is interesting. Both EC and GFS have been deadly accurate this Autumn so far, which tells me the transition period has yet to really begin.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    That gfs chart I posted is wack.
    Hence.
    It begins imo
     
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  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    With respect.
    Are they ever done with us ? Par for the course IMO.
     
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  44. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Evening AXS run shows it back on like Donkey Kong.

    So clearly a difference between 00Z and 12Z runs.

    [​IMG]
     
  45. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Long way out but after the 9th May looks like a major ECL I wish
     
    #45 TomGroggon, Apr 29, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2016
  46. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    When you say that I disappoint

    Cause it really means no mageddon

    And mageddon is the buzz
     
  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Name of system ? Jeb ?
     
  48. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Neville
     
  50. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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