Low confidence of a strong cold front to influence the alps arriving on Saturday 7th May. Both ECMWF & AccessG is off the charts with lots of pre-frontal (50mm+) but at 240hrs both suggest to have a strong west-Sou-Westerly flow complete with trailing cold pool. A cut-off low is certainly flaunted with on both models. Snow is certainly possible on Sunday 8th May. Yes, I understand it's a fickle time of year to read into models (esp 240hrs+) however I am simply highlighting the interpreted data. No chance of me suggesting possible snow depths but I'd put it in the 60% chance of snowfall in the Aus mainland alps at this stage, for this date range. *UPDATE* Charts below are hosted/static and will not update.
Do we really want snowfall at this point in time ? If it happens , apart from helping to cool the ground a bit but wont achieve much else. Considering how few coldies actually impact the Aussie Hills that some would consider it a wasted opportunity I guess.
Doesn't matter really. Only helps get excitement up and relief of the dreaded SDS. We can all retrieve our gear, line it up, check it out and go and buy some new gear if the old gear APPEARS to have gone past it!
At this time of year this is probably pretty important in helping the next snowfall to actually get the season started.
Already done , gear checked and added to , new pants , jacket , sox , gloves. New skis and poles as well , boots only 1 season old. All sorted and ready to rock and roll. Now the wait begins.
As a golfer I'm enjoying it but it's not good for business. Apologies about OT in the first 'proper' weather thread of the winter mods
Watch the models...will we see them lose enthusiasm and then ramp up at 4 days? Will this be the pattern? FTR I am expecting the season to start with a bang not a whimper and this looks like a bang.
I don't really care how cold it is... it just needs the isobars to point in the correct direction.. that will promote colder air . We don't need a fantastical system. We need duration
I opened the window to the 6th because of the pre-frontal which impacts the SE states from the 6th as indicated on the charts in the lead post. Big variances in runs now. Large ridging on GFS & ECMWF says not likely. Looks like these blocking and ridging scenarios are not done with us yet!
Models go off the rails. Which is interesting. Both EC and GFS have been deadly accurate this Autumn so far, which tells me the transition period has yet to really begin.
