Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I vote Nigel too
     
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  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm happy to go skiing any time of year.

    2 May 2009

    Some turns:
    [​IMG]

    And some camping:
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    If its not Nigel has to be Scot
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  5. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Finding a name for it is on topic.
     
  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I don't see what you other guys do in this period. Looks mild and dry IMO.
     
  7. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks later but stronger on the 12UTC run.
     
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  9. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    the BOM forecast for Sunday is quite weird.

    Minimum 7, Maximum 7 and chance of snow above 1900m.

    How can snow fall when the temp is 7 degrees?
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, long way out but.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Still very volatile further out on the models, so I'm not really trusting anything more than a few days out at the moment.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    But GFS generally agrees
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Progression is bs.
    Don't see many cutoffs in may either... so we'll see
     
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  14. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some speckle on the sat pic.
     
  15. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    And this doesn't look terrible:

    Maybe just pushing a little too south, but nice for May.
     
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  16. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like the way the 9th is shaping .
    a definite change of weather from today onwards.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9th looks mighty wet.
     
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  18. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Agree ,at this time anyway. Sunday night/Monday 8-9th look fairly wet but its still a week away.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wet's good this time of year.
     
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  20. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Moisture and Wind. Good ground coolers.
     
  21. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vibezzzzzzzzzzzz
     
  22. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    -11.2 apparent temp at Thredbo top
     
  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    not so much a downgrade on the 7/8 - just a delayed arrival ... for Mt K

     
  24. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ill have a go, though I may be wrong. Say you have a layer of not so cold air (say 7deg), now say above that you have freezing air. If the warmer layer is not too thick, snow created above it can fall through and not melt.
     
  25. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even though not much may come of it, it's just nice to see little snowflakes on the screen at this time of year.
     
  26. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Hi Rocketboy
    What site is this forecast from?
     
  27. ladycamper

    ladycamper One of Us

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    All clothes still fit and all equipment sitting nicely awaiting the winter.
     
  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    RB has linked it, clicky on the "for Mt K"
     
  29. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Thanks DidSurfNowSki
     
  30. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yrno is a great model but its going nuts at the moment it is good in winter
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some seriously-warm SSTs in SW Tasman. Coupled with a strong onshore (SE) flow it will act as a good influencer for those heavy SE-AUS falls modeled for the 8/9th. Remains to be seen if it will wind up a cut-off.
    If it doesn't have that NW/SE fetch I think those falls could be overstated.
    [​IMG]
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Weather bomb
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Perfect conditions for bombing lows to develop. We've had a quiet start to the year but I'm expecting to see a few big systems brew once some of that colder air starts making its way north.
     
  35. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    8th look like quite an event.

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lot's of moisture getting sucked in from the NW if that comes off.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
    Predictions for 6-10th May only.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, which will be warmer air.
    Traditional battle of the moisture laden NW flow and the colder SW front.
    IMO very wet first up, slowly turning to snow as it dries up. Potentially some reasonable accumulations above 1800m late in the piece if it stays as it is.
     
  39. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Cold air arriving on the 9th. As a very early call, I'm calling a 5-10cm net gain above 1700m.

    [​IMG]
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC already rapidly backing away from this system


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    GFS and AXS showing some residual moisture after things cool on 9th. Fingers crossed.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Welcome to model silly season
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Accurate to about 120 hours, eh?
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats ambitious
     
  45. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This

    Strong tail imo
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    On GFS.
    Pretty much gone on EC.
     
  47. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Big trailing high might get cold nights for snowmaking
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the bright side 540 reaches north of 40 degS at 120hrs out. I'll take that!;)
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z run has it vaguely interested in Sunday.
    GFS is moisture heavy, with cold air arriving Sunday PM. Pre-frontal looks really heavy.
     
  50. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note we may be in the lose enthusiasm phase...
     
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