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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.
I vote Nigel too
I'm happy to go skiing any time of year.
2 May 2009
And some camping:
If its not Nigel has to be Scot
Stay on topic.
Finding a name for it is on topic.
Well I don't see what you other guys do in this period. Looks mild and dry IMO.
Looks later but stronger on the 12UTC run.
the BOM forecast for Sunday is quite weird.
Minimum 7, Maximum 7 and chance of snow above 1900m.
How can snow fall when the temp is 7 degrees?
Yeah, long way out but.
Still very volatile further out on the models, so I'm not really trusting anything more than a few days out at the moment.
But GFS generally agrees
Progression is bs.
Don't see many cutoffs in may either... so we'll see
Some speckle on the sat pic.
And this doesn't look terrible:
Maybe just pushing a little too south, but nice for May.
I like the way the 9th is shaping .
a definite change of weather from today onwards.
9th looks mighty wet.
Agree ,at this time anyway. Sunday night/Monday 8-9th look fairly wet but its still a week away.
Wet's good this time of year.
Moisture and Wind. Good ground coolers.
-11.2 apparent temp at Thredbo top
not so much a downgrade on the 7/8 - just a delayed arrival ... for Mt K
Ill have a go, though I may be wrong. Say you have a layer of not so cold air (say 7deg), now say above that you have freezing air. If the warmer layer is not too thick, snow created above it can fall through and not melt.
Even though not much may come of it, it's just nice to see little snowflakes on the screen at this time of year.
What site is this forecast from?
All clothes still fit and all equipment sitting nicely awaiting the winter.
RB has linked it, clicky on the "for Mt K"
Yrno is a great model but its going nuts at the moment it is good in winter
Some seriously-warm SSTs in SW Tasman. Coupled with a strong onshore (SE) flow it will act as a good influencer for those heavy SE-AUS falls modeled for the 8/9th. Remains to be seen if it will wind up a cut-off.
If it doesn't have that NW/SE fetch I think those falls could be overstated.
Perfect conditions for bombing lows to develop. We've had a quiet start to the year but I'm expecting to see a few big systems brew once some of that colder air starts making its way north.
8th look like quite an event.
Lot's of moisture getting sucked in from the NW if that comes off.
Stay on topic.
Predictions for 6-10th May only.
Yes, which will be warmer air.
Traditional battle of the moisture laden NW flow and the colder SW front.
IMO very wet first up, slowly turning to snow as it dries up. Potentially some reasonable accumulations above 1800m late in the piece if it stays as it is.
Cold air arriving on the 9th. As a very early call, I'm calling a 5-10cm net gain above 1700m.
EC already rapidly backing away from this system
GFS and AXS showing some residual moisture after things cool on 9th. Fingers crossed.
Welcome to model silly season
Accurate to about 120 hours, eh?
Strong tail imo
Pretty much gone on EC.
Big trailing high might get cold nights for snowmaking
On the bright side 540 reaches north of 40 degS at 120hrs out. I'll take that!
EC 12z run has it vaguely interested in Sunday.
GFS is moisture heavy, with cold air arriving Sunday PM. Pre-frontal looks really heavy.
I note we may be in the lose enthusiasm phase...