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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.
Yr no has 40mm at FC on the 8th, with 25 of that falling in a 6 hour window
Still a long way out with the models bouncing all over the place between runs.
Geddon > ground cooler
Progression doesn't look realistic, though.
Wake me around may 4 and I will begin to pay attention..
Now to start looking to see if and what is following.. 5 nodes eh?!
drink lots of rum/coke then its possible...
Anybody's guess. Models all over the place. Better chance at 2 up then predicting this far out.
Starting to see some agreement with GFS.
EC ensembles suggest a fair bit of doubt beyond 120 hours.
GFS spag for the 8th
A lot of chaos there.
flip not flop yr.no is "currently" back on for the 9-11.
Nice - How are the 850 and 500 temps looking during this period CC?
Now up to 65mm with 35 in 6 hours
Thats quite a bit for EC.
Its usually quite conservative...
Initially very warm.
Then cooling late on the 10th into the 11th.
Thats not cool.
(thats prob why its so moist)
Of course. The draw down of moisture from the tropics is significant.
GFS showing second front on 10th. Temps marginal IMO.
A bit lame on this arvos runs, but I reckon the front that will cross us tomorrow is muddying things up. Once that's gone we'll have a better picture.
BoM issues severe weather warning for Victoria, 100kph winds predicted
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 10:11 pm EST on Monday 2 May 2016.
A strong cold front will move through the State Tuesday. Northwesterly winds will increase ahead of the change before turning westerly behind the front and easing later.
North to northwesterly winds around 60 km/h with DAMAGING peak gusts of 90 - 100 km/h are forecast for the South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts and parts of the North East forecast district during Tuesday, mainly over the coast and elevated areas. Gusts may reach 110km/h over the Alpine area. The damaging winds will develop in the South West during the early morning before extending eastwards during the remainder of the morning. Wind gradually easing from the west during the afternoon.
Already covered in the Autumn thread and not directly related to 6-10th period.
I've changed the dates on this thread. Looks to me that the action is 8th-12th.
8th seems pretty much fixed now. Strong troughy warm and damp phase.
Then a colder follow-up on the 10th
EC even going for more on the 12th - GFS not on board yet.
Bring it on.
Going to Ballart for mothers day, will be nice and blowy up country way.
Not good for riding. Those arvo rides home into these strong NW's along the beach are brutal.
On a snow relevance note, should see a bit of white stuff towards the end of this period once it cools down, nothing to get excited about and nothing that will have any effect on the coming snow season.
Maybe a bit of "ground cooling" for the optimists.
I think it will determine whether May overall cools down more rapidly and allowing a good start on snow making in late May - setting up Perisher for the QB LWE. Last year was a treat on Front Valley with a 30cm dump on June 1/2 and then all out snow making getting the V8 and the Quad to Mid open on Queen's BD.
GFS just shows a broad cold pool getting slung
Perisher will do OK.
Looks more like EC this morning.
How about that arvo GFS run for Sunday and monday, What the actual F**K????????
Never seen anything like it
Tropical bits has the best model page IMO...early rendering
Probably more intense than any so-called tropical cyclone that got near the Aussie coast last summer.
The BOM should start naming Bass Strait cyclones like this....
976hpa center on Monday, just south of Tasmania.
ie Sydney to Hobart
Ethel and Neville?
Like the way this is shaping up. Thought the GFS was bullshit 3 days ago. Hope we are done with pesky warm feeds.
It certainly meets the 'Weather Bomb' category by Sunday PM.
It appears the combination of warm SST's in the bight (2-3 degrees anomaly) and the surface trough over inland WA are the catalyst.
The beautiful thing on the +120hrs (Saturday) AXS model is that the 2 bands are split around the low. The Eastern Band is influenced by the northern in feed, whilst the West appears heavily influenced by the SSTs.
That's quite a low. You can see it pulling in the warm northerly feed. Lots of moisture there.
Its a right mover... so it won't be that bad
Going to need the water skis (IMO).
No snow on the ground, so it really doesn't hurt.
As previously posted. There looks like follow up. I'm happy.
The weather is good , the vibe is good.
weather is good
fat fat highs are not
nodally nodes are good nodes
Is it likely to snow? Weather gurus please advise. It's not out of the question in May.
* Not in vicco.
Tuesday has something
It's likely we'll snow fall +2000m Monday PM. Whether it settles is another question. Upper levels are still relatively warm. It's not really worth getting excited about until we see falls that settle - a few weeks away yet maybe.
Sorry, Tuesday is what i meant.