Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr no has 40mm at FC on the 8th, with 25 of that falling in a 6 hour window :eek:
     
  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a long way out with the models bouncing all over the place between runs.
     
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  3. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geddon > ground cooler
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Progression doesn't look realistic, though.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  5. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wake me around may 4 and I will begin to pay attention..
    Now to start looking to see if and what is following.. 5 nodes eh?!
     
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  6. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    drink lots of rum/coke then its possible...
     
  7. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Anybody's guess. Models all over the place. Better chance at 2 up then predicting this far out.
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC tonight

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Starting to see some agreement with GFS.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC ensembles suggest a fair bit of doubt beyond 120 hours.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS spag for the 8th
    [​IMG]

    A lot of chaos there.
     
  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Nice - How are the 850 and 500 temps looking during this period CC?
     
  13. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now up to 65mm with 35 in 6 hours:eek::eek:
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats quite a bit for EC.
    Its usually quite conservative...
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Initially very warm.
    [​IMG]

    Then cooling late on the 10th into the 11th.


    [​IMG]
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats not cool.
    (thats prob why its so moist)
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Of course. The draw down of moisture from the tropics is significant.
     
  18. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    GFS showing second front on 10th. Temps marginal IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit lame on this arvos runs, but I reckon the front that will cross us tomorrow is muddying things up. Once that's gone we'll have a better picture.
     
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  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM issues severe weather warning for Victoria, 100kph winds predicted

    Severe Weather Warning
    for damaging winds
    for people in the North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 10:11 pm EST on Monday 2 May 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A strong cold front will move through the State Tuesday. Northwesterly winds will increase ahead of the change before turning westerly behind the front and easing later.

    North to northwesterly winds around 60 km/h with DAMAGING peak gusts of 90 - 100 km/h are forecast for the South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts and parts of the North East forecast district during Tuesday, mainly over the coast and elevated areas. Gusts may reach 110km/h over the Alpine area. The damaging winds will develop in the South West during the early morning before extending eastwards during the remainder of the morning. Wind gradually easing from the west during the afternoon.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Already covered in the Autumn thread and not directly related to 6-10th period.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've changed the dates on this thread. Looks to me that the action is 8th-12th.
    8th seems pretty much fixed now. Strong troughy warm and damp phase.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Then a colder follow-up on the 10th

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    EC even going for more on the 12th - GFS not on board yet.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bring it on.
    Going to Ballart for mothers day, will be nice and blowy up country way.

    Not good for riding. Those arvo rides home into these strong NW's along the beach are brutal.

    On a snow relevance note, should see a bit of white stuff towards the end of this period once it cools down, nothing to get excited about and nothing that will have any effect on the coming snow season.
    Maybe a bit of "ground cooling" for the optimists.
     
  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it will determine whether May overall cools down more rapidly and allowing a good start on snow making in late May - setting up Perisher for the QB LWE. Last year was a treat on Front Valley with a 30cm dump on June 1/2 and then all out snow making getting the V8 and the Quad to Mid open on Queen's BD.
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS just shows a broad cold pool getting slung
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ie
    Perisher will do OK.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks more like EC this morning.
     
  28. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    How about that arvo GFS run for Sunday and monday, What the actual F**K????????

    Never seen anything like it
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Wow
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  33. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Probably more intense than any so-called tropical cyclone that got near the Aussie coast last summer.

    The BOM should start naming Bass Strait cyclones like this....
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    976hpa center on Monday, just south of Tasmania. :whistle:
     
    #134 Claude Cat, May 3, 2016
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
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  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    weather BOMB
    ie Sydney to Hobart
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ethel and Neville?
    Gilbert?
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    :cheers: Like the way this is shaping up. Thought the GFS was bullshit 3 days ago. Hope we are done with pesky warm feeds.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It certainly meets the 'Weather Bomb' category by Sunday PM.
    It appears the combination of warm SST's in the bight (2-3 degrees anomaly) and the surface trough over inland WA are the catalyst.
    The beautiful thing on the +120hrs (Saturday) AXS model is that the 2 bands are split around the low. The Eastern Band is influenced by the northern in feed, whilst the West appears heavily influenced by the SSTs.
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    That's quite a low. You can see it pulling in the warm northerly feed. Lots of moisture there.

    [​IMG]
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its a right mover... so it won't be that bad
     
  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going to need the water skis (IMO).
     
  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    No snow on the ground, so it really doesn't hurt.

    As previously posted. There looks like follow up. I'm happy.
     
    #142 Astro66, May 3, 2016
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
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  43. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The weather is good , the vibe is good.
     
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  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its weather.
    weather is good
    fat fat highs are not
     
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  45. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    nodally nodes are good nodes
     
  46. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it likely to snow? Weather gurus please advise. It's not out of the question in May.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No
    * Not in vicco.
     
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Tuesday has something
    [​IMG]
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's likely we'll snow fall +2000m Monday PM. Whether it settles is another question. Upper levels are still relatively warm. It's not really worth getting excited about until we see falls that settle - a few weeks away yet maybe.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, Tuesday is what i meant.
     
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