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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.
I think the roof of Australia will get socked.
Doesn't look like much moisture left in the tank by the time the cooler air arrives Tuesday. Did auto-correct get the better of you then? 'soaked' perhaps?
bit of A and a Bit of B.
But a bit weaker here, although 1800UTC is a low-input run, so i'll wait for 0000 to check:
I don't know charts like you guys but I' think I'm seeing what pow says
Lots of warm moisture sunday into Monday with snow only likely to develop later in the day and into Tuesday,
There is potential for whip around at the end where the warm moist air is dragged into the cold pool for a short burst of goodness
Just looks whippy to me
Like one of the early July fronts last year
Rain rain rain dusting rain dusting then boom goodness then half hour later kaput gone but lingering cold
No one should be caring about snow right now. We've had months of nothing, no weather, now we're starting to get some consistency in frontal activity. You shouldnt even be looking or caring about whether or not they'll bring snow.
Yeah...well.....for those of us who like to be skiing in the first week of June (on man-made or better) it kinda matters.
But thanks, anyway
I always care man.
Happy with pre snow and cold from this. Pretty rare we get a good dump this early,last time was 2009, and it was a pretty average season. Nice to see some shape starting.
IMO EC shows that there's a chance of snow above 2000m on Monday, and that snow level should fall to 1600m or so on Tuesday and stay at that level for the next few days.
I say that with caution as the models are far from settled after the big event on the weekend.
Everyone would like to be skiing the first week of June in Australia.
Its only first day or 3 of May !
OK it's from today, but BOOM contact!
Here we go again for another yesr
Weather bear pit
It's my way or highway
Astro head shake
Yep, and I land into King Island this Friday... (If we can actually land on it!). Shame I can only take 2 boards!
This event will not only come bearing the fruits of moisture, it also brings with it a series of follow-up swells (x2) over the next week.
I like the look of the weekend , well sunday/monday really, but gunna wait a little while on it. May bring me some desperstely needed rain but then it also may not.
Will only last for the first few systems.
Yes I know CC, predictions for 8-12th only.
Stay on topic.
OK then, time to dust off DSNS's hopecast crystal ball.
It says an inch and a half of clear snow to midday Monday followed by 20cm of fresh snow on the NSW mainrange through to midday Thursday. The west-northwest winds at this time will favor Perisher. There will be pictures of 4WD snowtracks by Tuesday night.
Nearly created alias account for purpose of clicking like again.
Unliked and reliked cos of like.
Its a lovely looking low pressure system.
Angry and rainy. Do like.
Forecast temps for Canberra on Sun/Mon are pretty warm though.
Please see all of Verms posts above.
Even in the dead of winter this would be a rain event imo. Glad it's in early May and is great for the countryside, dams, etc
Forecast says first half is warm, the second half is cold, then warms up again. Will be slushy.
Tomorrow would have been nice! Or too big at 'that' spot?
Gone in a couple days at most if that imo.
But, 6 days away.
Yes, it is May.
Horrible in Northerlies, potentially too big as well. But alas take your pick on a 60km wide island in 4-5 metre swell. Top ups on Friday, Sunday and Tuesday won't allow the swell to drop below 2.5-3 metres.
YES, NE facing
Somewhat concerning for rural NSW/VIC if Sunday comes off to the tune of AXS. I've been expecting a downgrade but the moisture and winds are still there. EC has it forming with less in intensity later which appears more manageable.
Tassie has had snow overnight after a very wild weekend.
It looks like next Sunday/Monday will be wild, wet and possibly white as well.
This is a big event, it is great to see some weather at all let alone something like this. This is a season switch.
Let's call this incoming storm/cyclone "Boris". Last weekend's front should be called "Anatoly".
I can't see any air cold enough for snow in this period. By the time it gets cold the moisture will have gone.
well almost mid may by the time this period is over.
And only 4 weeks from start of the season.
And very close to when they will start making snow if conditions are right
BoM doesn't have as much rain forecast at the start of the event, eg for Thredbo top station:
Sunday 8 May
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.
Monday 9 May
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
Alpine Area area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h tending west to northwesterly 30 to 35 km/h during the day.
Tuesday 10 May
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%
Alpine Area area
Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the day.
"Boris" is still looking fierce on 00Z GFS....
Not all models are pointing to a colossal rain event for the alps, so I suspect BOM is playing it safe at the moment, which I think is very wise. It looks like BOM is suggesting a bit of orographic/rain shadowing influence with towns to the west receiving more than the alps - at least at this point in the forecast. Forecasted today:
Albury has 20-25mm
And we're still 120hrs+ out.
IMO today's 00 GFS update looks even tastier.
Looks colder on the GFS arvo runs.
That EC is a sight to behold, absolute monster
Definitely better on both models for the 9th-10th.
Perisher Thredbo might do OK up high BOM have snow level at 1900 I think that could lower slightly but moisture dries out
Was in N.Z. when a weather bomb hit. Nth Island 20c and floods, Sth. Island subzero and heavy snow. Depends where the cut off is.
EC says most of SE Australia.