Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think the roof of Australia will get socked.
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doesn't look like much moisture left in the tank by the time the cooler air arrives Tuesday. Did auto-correct get the better of you then? 'soaked' perhaps?;)
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    LOL bit of A and a Bit of B.
     
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  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    But a bit weaker here, although 1800UTC is a low-input run, so i'll wait for 0000 to check:
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't know charts like you guys but I' think I'm seeing what pow says

    Lots of warm moisture sunday into Monday with snow only likely to develop later in the day and into Tuesday,

    There is potential for whip around at the end where the warm moist air is dragged into the cold pool for a short burst of goodness
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    its...
    a
    week
    away
     
  8. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big.Banana.
     
  9. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just looks whippy to me

    Like one of the early July fronts last year

    Rain rain rain dusting rain dusting then boom goodness then half hour later kaput gone but lingering cold
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No one should be caring about snow right now. We've had months of nothing, no weather, now we're starting to get some consistency in frontal activity. You shouldnt even be looking or caring about whether or not they'll bring snow.
     
  11. Normo

    Normo Mostly Harmless Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah...well.....for those of us who like to be skiing in the first week of June (on man-made or better) it kinda matters.
    But thanks, anyway :thumbs:
     
  12. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I always care man.

    Happy with pre snow and cold from this. Pretty rare we get a good dump this early,last time was 2009, and it was a pretty average season. Nice to see some shape starting.
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC shows that there's a chance of snow above 2000m on Monday, and that snow level should fall to 1600m or so on Tuesday and stay at that level for the next few days.
    I say that with caution as the models are far from settled after the big event on the weekend.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everyone would like to be skiing the first week of June in Australia.
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
    Its only first day or 3 of May !
     
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  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK it's from today, but BOOM contact!
     
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  17. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here we go again for another yesr

    Weather bear pit

    It's my way or highway

    Astro head shake
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, and I land into King Island this Friday... :woohoo:(If we can actually land on it!). Shame I can only take 2 boards!
    This event will not only come bearing the fruits of moisture, it also brings with it a series of follow-up swells (x2) over the next week.
     
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  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like the look of the weekend , well sunday/monday really, but gunna wait a little while on it. May bring me some desperstely needed rain but then it also may not.
     
  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will only last for the first few systems.

    Yes I know CC, predictions for 8-12th only.:oops:
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK then, time to dust off DSNS's hopecast crystal ball.

    It says an inch and a half of clear snow to midday Monday followed by 20cm of fresh snow on the NSW mainrange through to midday Thursday. The west-northwest winds at this time will favor Perisher. There will be pictures of 4WD snowtracks by Tuesday night.
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And....
    early
    May
     
  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Clicked like.
    Nearly created alias account for purpose of clicking like again.
    Unliked and reliked cos of like.
    Its a lovely looking low pressure system.
    Angry and rainy. Do like.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Forecast temps for Canberra on Sun/Mon are pretty warm though.
     
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  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please see all of Verms posts above.
    Even in the dead of winter this would be a rain event imo. Glad it's in early May and is great for the countryside, dams, etc
     
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  27. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forecast says first half is warm, the second half is cold, then warms up again. Will be slushy.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow would have been nice! Or too big at 'that' spot?
     
  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gone in a couple days at most if that imo.
    But, 6 days away.
     
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, it is May.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Horrible in Northerlies, potentially too big as well. But alas take your pick on a 60km wide island in 4-5 metre swell. Top ups on Friday, Sunday and Tuesday won't allow the swell to drop below 2.5-3 metres.
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    YES, NE facing
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Somewhat concerning for rural NSW/VIC if Sunday comes off to the tune of AXS. I've been expecting a downgrade but the moisture and winds are still there. EC has it forming with less in intensity later which appears more manageable.

    SUNDAY AXS
    [​IMG]
    MONDAY EC
    [​IMG]
     
  34. almontyrat

    almontyrat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is a big event, it is great to see some weather at all let alone something like this. This is a season switch.
     
  36. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Let's call this incoming storm/cyclone "Boris". Last weekend's front should be called "Anatoly".
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  38. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    I can't see any air cold enough for snow in this period. By the time it gets cold the moisture will have gone.
     
  39. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    well almost mid may by the time this period is over.
    And only 4 weeks from start of the season.
    And very close to when they will start making snow if conditions are right
     
  40. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM doesn't have as much rain forecast at the start of the event, eg for Thredbo top station:

    Sunday 8 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 4
    Max 9
    Late shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

    Monday 9 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 4
    Max 6
    Showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h tending west to northwesterly 30 to 35 km/h during the day.

    Tuesday 10 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 3
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the day.
     
  41. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    "Boris" is still looking fierce on 00Z GFS....
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not all models are pointing to a colossal rain event for the alps, so I suspect BOM is playing it safe at the moment, which I think is very wise. It looks like BOM is suggesting a bit of orographic/rain shadowing influence with towns to the west receiving more than the alps - at least at this point in the forecast. Forecasted today:
    Albury has 20-25mm
    Shepparton 20mm
    Echuca 15-20mm

    And we're still 120hrs+ out.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO today's 00 GFS update looks even tastier.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks colder on the GFS arvo runs.

    That EC is a sight to behold, absolute monster
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Definitely better on both models for the 9th-10th.
     
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  47. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Perisher Thredbo might do OK up high BOM have snow level at 1900 I think that could lower slightly but moisture dries out
     
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  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  49. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Was in N.Z. when a weather bomb hit. Nth Island 20c and floods, Sth. Island subzero and heavy snow. Depends where the cut off is.
     
  50. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC says most of SE Australia.
     
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