Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Sunday thru to Weds. GFS is just juicy.

    The last of the hook (Tues Evening to Weds) is our best bet for white stuff. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anything to compare this to for SE Australia?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our system on Sunday is not technically a cut off although it uniquely moisture heavy.
    I am surprised there has been no regression or dramatic downgrade by the models on this one, especially at this time of year. Looking like a great rain event.
    I still can't see much in the way of snow until Tuesday. At best we may see some Tuesday above 2000m.
     
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  4. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    I totally agree. If this event happened in July it would be great.
     
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  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC just turned the taps and heat on in the last run, IMO. Temps now way up and 3" of clear snow across the snowies.
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think you'll see snow about 2000m on Tuesday.
    This has never been a cold system.
    IMO
     
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  7. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    just watch this node spin around the antarctic wheel, I figure it will be back again....
     
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  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Like sands through an hour glass
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Every system of the 2005 season....:rolleyes:
    I was Kat driving in Buller. The only major driving done that season was to recover roofing and debris from Fed Bowl.
    Last week in August 2005 was wet and wild from memory. The map suggests in-feed via trough in the interior and NW shelf. Sorry Karicta, that's all that comes to mind.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Feb 2005 imo
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Though that was a left mover
     
  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks!

    This produced a massive 138mm in 24 hours at FC (much less at Thredbo fwiw)
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sorry to be harsh

    Buts thats kinda not really aye.

    This low cooks (according to the models)... due to a upper level cold pool...cutoff 500's and a nice NW infeed.
    not to mention some toasty SST in the bight.
    Its a bomb... but its far far from even being on a sat pic...
     
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  15. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Worst case scenario the magic carpet will be up and running. 11vm's......smokin':p
     
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  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah remember that one - every old building above ski school lost their roof.

    Turned up to work, no power, went to the Abom which had a gennie and started drinking.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    But it kinda is aye.... Correlate it with the BOM's 4 day synoptic. Sure it's got maturing to do, but not until it's lifted into the bight.
    [​IMG]
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once it gets to the warmer water later on Saturday the pressure really starts to drop.
    Going to really interesting watching this progress , as it is with most significant weather events .

    Edit !

    [​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

    #218 nfip, May 5, 2016
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You really need the SST Anomaly chart to show where it's warmer than typical.South-East of the bight is simmering away.
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    what's the usual time for a full circuit? Bout 3 weeks isn't it?
     
  21. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Varies year on year, a few years ago it was exactly 28 days, 4 nodes... That was the it always snows on Friday year.. Or whatever it was.
     
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yup.
    remember it well.
    2008 I think?
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2012.
     
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So looking like late May/early June.

    It's all in the timing...
     
  25. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whatever year @Richard ran the "snow futures"... Was like shooting fish in a barrel 2012 I think.
     
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  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep.
    2nd week of July. Every Thursday/Friday for about 7 weeks then bang, September sunshine.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  28. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    October actually...
     
  29. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only thing I would add is that you may see some snow action Monday night above 2000m but I wouldn't put my house on it.
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    oh aren't you getting all techy now
    thanks @Donza
     
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  32. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice animation, how is that pulse of blue as the lows spins over Tassie.

    All this talk of the mainland. Tuesday will be a lovely day to be walking in western Tas. Will be a short lived but fair bit of snow, one of those quick dumps where you are thrashing through knee to thigh wet snow, in thigh to waist scrub, with leeches from ankle to neck!!

    And then to top it off, turning back to cold rain the next day, that miserable stuff in the single figure positives, cold enough to numb hands and face, wet enough to get into everything.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting GFS thinks we'll be doing this all over again a week later.
     
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  34. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's it then. I'm packing Boris with 45kg of ballast and heading to the Prince of Wales for a fortnight....
     
  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw may be worth watching
     
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  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I had a walk (ski) up at Baw Baw on June 1 last year. @Boodwah even earlier. Would love to do that again!
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Coldness creeping further north on the 00z run?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tuesday looks spectacular for Tasmania IMO
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pressures look good over the alps? 996 hPa at MSL
     
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  41. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Gee, skiing is so dated.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic.
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just so my dusty old brain gets this right...
    Cold air is heavier so the 500mb pressure "uppers" is closer to the ground (measure in decametres so 5280m for example ).
    Warmer air being lighter the 500mb layer is higher.
    Cold air being heavier would logically be higher MSLP ?? This confuses me.
    Sorry if not OT here CC.
    Flick it elsewhere if appropriate.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    "Thickness will INCREASE if the average virtual temperature increases (either temperature increasing or moisture content increasing or both). Thickness will DECREASE if the average virtual temperature decreases (either temperature decreasing or moisture content decreasing or both)."
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC update - looks like Adelaide is going to get smashed.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #245 Claude Cat, May 5, 2016
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
  46. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    ^^ "Boris" is going to suck a whole lot of heat out of the waters of the Bight I reckon. I'm struggling to remember a Low Pressure system so intense at these latitudes if that comes off.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  48. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag 00z time stamp Monday comparison with EC is interesting.
    Next 3 weeks looking tastey too.

    [​IMG]
     
    #248 nfip, May 5, 2016
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
  49. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM have snow falling above 1700m on Tuesday.
     
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  50. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, after 2012 we got tired of climbing for October spring lines and bought some loose knee crotch dacks that made us look like we shat ourselves and hung out at the rails for a bit with the other homies smashing rails and our spinal cords etc. But it all got a bit boring so now we're back to big mountain telemark lines.
     
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