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Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.
Australia being the dry place that it is we should be thankful that we actually do get snow.
Lot's of upper level cloud getting dragged down from the NW.
Going to be wet.
It has changed though. I now locals who said regularly there were snow drifts between Cooma and Jindabyne. We used to think of a base building too....now it is a decent front or two and skiing is on. I notice yr.no looks healthy for the K during this period.
yr.no - just updated - Looking sweet all week.
and earth.null is showing increasing instability with lots of super cold air flowing out into the outer nodes.
Those numbers on yr.no add up ok.
Latest model runs suggest tomorrow will be best for the rain.
Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall
for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts
Issued at 4:30 pm EST on Sunday 8 May 2016.
A low pressure trough will enter western Victoria early Monday morning, then will move eastwards across the State during the day.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for the Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Mallee and Wimmera forecast districts. These storms are expected to develop over western Victoria during the morning before extending eastwards. Squally winds are also likely with the storms with gusts of 90 to 100km/h possible.
So safe to say no bricks getting laid in Canberra ?
Day in the pub
I quite like the accuracy of MetEye for sailing, not sure what its like in the mountains
IMO looking good for snow say above 1800m from Tuesday through Wednesday.
However, it warms up on Thursday, with the precipitation continuing, far chance most of it will be washed away.
Good latitude for this time of year.
We still need some heavy frosts.
Cold uppers arriving Tues, lingering thru Weds. So concur with CC on snowfalls.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in the Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Flinders, Mid North and parts of the Riverland and Murraylands districts.
Issued at 9:55 pm Sunday, 8 May 2016.
A deep low pressure system centred in the Bight will move slowly eastwards overnight Sunday, to be near Kangaroo Island around midday on Monday.
Damaging northwest to southwesterly winds averaging 50-65 km/h are forecast around the northern and western flanks of the low. These strong to gale force winds will develop over the far west coast late Sunday night and extend eastwards throughout the warning area during Monday morning.
Wind gusts of 90-100 km/h are also possible, mainly with squally showers or thunderstorms and over the ranges.
Showers may be heavy at times during Monday particularly over the Mount Lofty and southern Flinders Ranges.
Locations which may be affected include Ceduna, Port Lincoln and Cleve overnight and then extending to Maitland, Port Pirie and Adelaide during Monday morning.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.
The next warning is due to be issued by 12:55 am Monday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 215. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
About Severe Weather Warning Services
Yr.no says 10cm across the board on Wednesday. To be swiftly washed away, but will be first sig mainland snowfall for the year
Mt K and areas above 1900m are looking much better than that with little if any rain in the following days. Might be putting down the first layer for the winter season ahead. And who knows some of the more dedicated could be out there later this week/end with their rock hoppers.
Updated SWW for Victoria:
Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 10:42 am EST on Monday 9 May 2016.
A low pressure trough is over western Victoria and will move eastwards across the State during the day. An associated low pressure system will enter the far west of Victoria later in the day then weaken and head to the southeast. A trough and cool change associated with the low will cross the State during Tuesday morning.
DAMAGING WINDS around 50-60 km/h with peak gusts of 90-100 km/h are forecast for the Mallee, Wimmera, North East, Central, North Central, Northern Country, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts during Monday, with gusts in Alpine parts (above 1000 metres) of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts peaking at 110-120 km/h, particularly during Monday evening and early Tuesday. Damaging winds of 50-60km/h with peak gusts of 110 km/h are forecast to develop about coastal parts of the South West, Central and West and South Gippsland districts during Tuesday morning.
Thunderstorms and heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for the Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Central forecast districts. The risk of storms and flash flooding is expected to contract to the northeast of the State during Monday.
Mount Hotham has recorded a gust of 113 km/h during Monday morning.
Yeah, I was referring to 'resort snow'
big swell for Cactus today by the look of it.
Was looking at that fancy wind map before and think that.
Onshore flow wouldn't be favorable.
Some of the protect points in Streaky or Fisheries might be on the pump today.
30kt + SW. eek.
Bring your paddle arms.
15 - 20 ft 6 x overhead.!!!
NO Thanks , not even back in days of olde.
Even the mid would have been pumping by looks of that map
Channel 7 graphic...
Hotham down to 1.5 and dropping. Maybe some white stuff overnight.
TTS winds are howling. If the moisture holds there are going to be solid drifts. Might even get enough in Sun Valley to stay and start building some early rock filler.
Looking at the global map for the Southern Ocean there appears to be a succession of fronts over the coming weeks?
Yeah it looks as the switch will flick
few feet forecast for the roof of Australia.
should kick off BC
Just to show i'm not full of shite
Its pretty easy to see the reason.
This cutoff has broke down that persistent ridge.... even though its decayed now...
A large anti cyclone in the west has a persistent strong NW feed on its edge. thats unusual.. usually it would ridge up and cut that moisture off.... feeding into a dose of cold (not super cold )
All discussed above and obs thread, before your post, no need to justify yourself.
Yeah, but TBH i didn't believe it...
Could get a bit soggy on Thursday, apart from the highest parts.
Big call on the first big system
yr no has 20cm of snow falling at Perisher on Wednesday that will all be washed away on Thursday.
Charts weren't so wrong a week ago
soggy is relative
Its not a mango.
The onky thing about the charts was it looked wet everywhere last week but it's relatively localised
Bom now calling 15 to 40 on Tuesday and 6 to 25 on Thursday at Perisher. That's front valley AWS at 1735m. Expect more up high?
Looking at the low degrading, where is it all coming from?
The cams will be worth having a look at tomorrow afternoon maybe.
Wot Donza wrote.
Yes I understood that, or at least I thought I did. It's just that the low now appears to be degrading and the band of moisture is heading off to the south east towards NZ. Please tell me this was expected and that the low will re-develop and deliver.
Models previously had it further South. It's still tracking with a strong Easterly vector , though slowly starting to turn South. Once back over water, should re-develop.
Tail should deliver. IMO.