Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Australia being the dry place that it is we should be thankful that we actually do get snow.
     
  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  3. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture
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    It has changed though. I now locals who said regularly there were snow drifts between Cooma and Jindabyne. We used to think of a base building too....now it is a decent front or two and skiing is on. I notice yr.no looks healthy for the K during this period.
     
  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    #304 rocketboy, May 7, 2016
    Last edited: May 7, 2016
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  5. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Those numbers on yr.no add up ok.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest model runs suggest tomorrow will be best for the rain.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Stop swearing:eek:
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall
    for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts

    Issued at 4:30 pm EST on Sunday 8 May 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A low pressure trough will enter western Victoria early Monday morning, then will move eastwards across the State during the day.

    Thunderstorms with heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for the Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Mallee and Wimmera forecast districts. These storms are expected to develop over western Victoria during the morning before extending eastwards. Squally winds are also likely with the storms with gusts of 90 to 100km/h possible.
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    So safe to say no bricks getting laid in Canberra ?
     
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  10. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Day in the pub
     
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  11. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    I quite like the accuracy of MetEye for sailing, not sure what its like in the mountains

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO looking good for snow say above 1800m from Tuesday through Wednesday.
    However, it warms up on Thursday, with the precipitation continuing, far chance most of it will be washed away.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    [​IMG]

    dat pressure.
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    For tomorrow:

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Good latitude for this time of year.
     
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  17. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    We still need some heavy frosts.
     
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  18. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Cold uppers arriving Tues, lingering thru Weds. So concur with CC on snowfalls.

     
  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    calling @skifree...

    IDS65503
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    South Australia Regional Office

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in the Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Flinders, Mid North and parts of the Riverland and Murraylands districts.

    Issued at 9:55 pm Sunday, 8 May 2016.

    A deep low pressure system centred in the Bight will move slowly eastwards overnight Sunday, to be near Kangaroo Island around midday on Monday.

    Damaging northwest to southwesterly winds averaging 50-65 km/h are forecast around the northern and western flanks of the low. These strong to gale force winds will develop over the far west coast late Sunday night and extend eastwards throughout the warning area during Monday morning.

    Wind gusts of 90-100 km/h are also possible, mainly with squally showers or thunderstorms and over the ranges.

    Showers may be heavy at times during Monday particularly over the Mount Lofty and southern Flinders Ranges.



    Locations which may be affected include Ceduna, Port Lincoln and Cleve overnight and then extending to Maitland, Port Pirie and Adelaide during Monday morning.





    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
    * Secure or put away loose items around your property.
    * Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.



    The next warning is due to be issued by 12:55 am Monday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 215. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.



    [​IMG]
    About Severe Weather Warning Services
     
    #319 DidSurfNowSki, May 8, 2016
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
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  20. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Yr.no says 10cm across the board on Wednesday. To be swiftly washed away, but will be first sig mainland snowfall for the year
     
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Mt K and areas above 1900m are looking much better than that with little if any rain in the following days. Might be putting down the first layer for the winter season ahead. And who knows some of the more dedicated could be out there later this week/end with their rock hoppers.
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Updated SWW for Victoria:

    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 10:42 am EST on Monday 9 May 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A low pressure trough is over western Victoria and will move eastwards across the State during the day. An associated low pressure system will enter the far west of Victoria later in the day then weaken and head to the southeast. A trough and cool change associated with the low will cross the State during Tuesday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 50-60 km/h with peak gusts of 90-100 km/h are forecast for the Mallee, Wimmera, North East, Central, North Central, Northern Country, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts during Monday, with gusts in Alpine parts (above 1000 metres) of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts peaking at 110-120 km/h, particularly during Monday evening and early Tuesday. Damaging winds of 50-60km/h with peak gusts of 110 km/h are forecast to develop about coastal parts of the South West, Central and West and South Gippsland districts during Tuesday morning.

    Thunderstorms and heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for the Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Central forecast districts. The risk of storms and flash flooding is expected to contract to the northeast of the State during Monday.

    Mount Hotham has recorded a gust of 113 km/h during Monday morning.
     
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  23. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Yeah, I was referring to 'resort snow'
     
  24. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    big swell for Cactus today by the look of it.
     
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  25. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Was looking at that fancy wind map before and think that.

    Onshore flow wouldn't be favorable.

    Some of the protect points in Streaky or Fisheries might be on the pump today.
     
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  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    15 - 20 ft 6 x overhead.!!!
    NO Thanks , not even back in days of olde.
     
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  29. malas1

    malas1 Active Member

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    Even the mid would have been pumping by looks of that map
     
  30. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture
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    Channel 7 graphic...

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Hotham down to 1.5 and dropping. Maybe some white stuff overnight.
     
  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    TTS winds are howling. If the moisture holds there are going to be solid drifts. Might even get enough in Sun Valley to stay and start building some early rock filler.

    Looking at the global map for the Southern Ocean there appears to be a succession of fronts over the coming weeks?
     
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  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah it looks as the switch will flick
     
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    few feet forecast for the roof of Australia.
    should kick off BC
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just to show i'm not full of shite
    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

    Its pretty easy to see the reason.
    This cutoff has broke down that persistent ridge.... even though its decayed now...
    A large anti cyclone in the west has a persistent strong NW feed on its edge. thats unusual.. usually it would ridge up and cut that moisture off.... feeding into a dose of cold (not super cold )

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    All discussed above and obs thread, before your post, no need to justify yourself.
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah, but TBH i didn't believe it...
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Could get a bit soggy on Thursday, apart from the highest parts.
     
  40. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Big call on the first big system :)
     
  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    yr no has 20cm of snow falling at Perisher on Wednesday that will all be washed away on Thursday.
     
  42. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Charts weren't so wrong a week ago
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    soggy is relative
    Its not a mango.
     
  44. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Nope
     
  45. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    The onky thing about the charts was it looked wet everywhere last week but it's relatively localised
     
  46. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Bom now calling 15 to 40 on Tuesday and 6 to 25 on Thursday at Perisher. That's front valley AWS at 1735m. Expect more up high?
    Looking at the low degrading, where is it all coming from?
     
  47. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    The cams will be worth having a look at tomorrow afternoon maybe.
     
  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Wot Donza wrote.
     
  49. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Yes I understood that, or at least I thought I did. It's just that the low now appears to be degrading and the band of moisture is heading off to the south east towards NZ. Please tell me this was expected and that the low will re-develop and deliver.
     
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  50. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Models previously had it further South. It's still tracking with a strong Easterly vector , though slowly starting to turn South. Once back over water, should re-develop.

    Tail should deliver. IMO.
     
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