Predictions 9-11April Cut Off Low

POW Hungry

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Bit early for the talk of cut off lows but it's been progged for a few days now. Both GFS, EC going for a cut off scenario into the Tasman with good upgrades run to run, across moisture and cold air. Alps look to get a good dousing with a real possibility of snow accumulation above 1800m as mentioned yesterday.

Cut of low into the Tasman is progged with stark contrasting temps between the Bight and Tasman SSTs being the main driver here.
Screen Shot 2017-04-03 at 6.57.47 pm.png
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GFS progs the affects of the cut off scenario to deepen over Tues/Weds in the Tasman which could propagate some good swell and more rainfall for Southern NSW/SE Vicco.
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rocketboy

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[QUOTE="
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[/QUOTE]

Winter wise this SST set up is basically backwards to what we want - correct?
 

Jellybeans

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Winter wise this SST set up is basically backwards to what we want - correct?[/QUOTE]

No actually I would say that's a good set up. Cool in the Bight to keep temps cool and Warm in the Tasman to add moisture to ECLs and Tasman Lows. Most forecasts including POAMA are for a cooling Bight.
 
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Jellybeans

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Buller for sure with the SW flow.
Thredbo won't do so bad IF the cut-off lingers off the SE coastline.
Baw Baw with a SW flow? If the freezing level gets low enough which it probably won't.
Edit: GFS says yes to Baw Baw! 1500m FLs in the area.
 
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xuěboarder

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I was planning to hike feathertop on sunday, im assuming this will put a stop to those plans?
 

POW Hungry

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System still on track on the latest (12Z) run, although lack of alignment lies in the QPFs. EC upgrading QPFs for Eastern Vic/Sou-Coast NSW and Snowies.

Snow still above 1800m IMO.
 

Vermillion

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Not too bad, pressure isnt that low so i'm not sure about some of the snowline predictions, at this stage anyway. It's going to rely on cool uppers to get snow on the peaks, but for rainfall it looks great.
 
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jwx

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I agree with the others cc,pow its don't really matter if snows
or it don't at this time of the year. What does matter is the models,
are trending the seasonal switch is knocking at the door.

That said,EC temps down@2 metres suggesting to me atm,
if there is moisture then the snow is on the table.

3818eb4964.png
 

POW Hungry

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EC & GFS now looking very much aligned for Sunday eve, Monday on the 12Z run.
Good falls back on the cards for a GFS scenario with a more hooky set-up IMO. EC staying strong with this one.
10 cents above 1800m for me.

Worth locking in, in the next day or two.
 
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jungfrau

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EC & GFS now looking very much aligned for Sunday eve, Monday on the 12Z run.
Good falls back on the cards for a GFS scenario with a more hooky set-up IMO. EC staying strong with this one.
10 cents above 1800m for me.

Worth locking in, in the next day or two.
Timing for rain turning to snow (Hotham) is likely evening or during day Sunday?
 

Jellybeans

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IMG_0424.png

GFS Freezing Levels are pretty crap, only conducive for snow on the top of the Main Range and maybe Bogong.
IMG_0426.png

EC looks much better with below -20 500mb uppers, showing a clear cutoff low.
IMG_0425.png

And EC snowfall estimates are around 25cm for the Main Range.
Compared to 0cm on GFS and GEM. More time for this to pan out.
 

jwx

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42d1559e9f.png


Canuck ens lining up the low pressure in trough axis, inline with
the other ens atm. Roughly 60+mm precip in the parcel maybe.
 
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jwx

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GFS 10metre height kts, indicates the low works down to the surface. with gales upto 80/90kms along the coast.
 
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POW Hungry

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00Z GFS upgrades moisture with the Low lingering around the NSW Sou-Coast on Monday. EC, GFS & The Canadian Model now virtually inseparable on this one.
Some solid coastal falls looking likely IMO.

As for snow I still like it for ~10cm above 1800m, anything lower is a 'bonus' IMO.
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2017040500z.start-96.stop-132.vic..png
 
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POW Hungry

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GFS going colder again with -28C temps at 500mb, further and wider over the alps. -30C above Bass Straight... Those are mid-winter temps! She's looking colder each day. All over by early morning Monday though.

Swells (& wind) on the south coast are set to be massive. I know a few southern corners that will pump. I am sure @SAsurfa is keeping an eye on this one from AK.
Screen Shot 2017-04-06 at 8.33.43 am.png
 
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POW Hungry

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Considering it's early April, some beautiful temps progged for Sunday eve over the alps.
Nice, moist lower-mid atmos (to about 5k).

Progged sounding is for Thredbo 10pm Sunday:
Screen Shot 2017-04-06 at 8.59.01 am.png

A few cents in Thredbo village is now likely IMO.
 
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Majikthise

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GFS going colder again with -28C temps at 500mb, further and wider over the alps. -30C above Bass Straight... Those are mid-winter temps! She's looking colder each day. All over by early morning Monday though.

Swells (& wind) on the south coast are set to be massive. I know a few southern corners that will pump. I am sure @SAsurfa is keeping an eye on this one from AK.
Screen Shot 2017-04-06 at 8.33.43 am.png
I drew the attention of my surfing colleaugue to this on Monday. He is already packed .
 
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Jellybeans

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IMG_0437.png

For the Main Range:
EC still the best of the pack with 15cm
GFS about 5-10cm
GEM Dusting
UKMO looks cold enough for 5cm or so.

Meanwhile EC EFI is not very optimistic for snowfall over the period. But I would use this product with caution.
IMG_0436.png

If you don't know what EFI is:
"The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed at ECMWF as a tool to provide some general guidance on potential extreme events. By comparing the EPS distribution of a chosen weather parameter to the model’s climatological distribution, the EFI indicates occasions when there is an increased risk of an extreme event occurring"
Source: WMO
 

jwx

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Do a little better for you 78hrs+
jungfrau

Nice 534 powder line to the S to bad its not winter.
78hrs
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90hrs
 
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