Predictions 9-11April Cut Off Low

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 3, 2017.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,080
    Likes Received:
    3,488
    Location:
    Wollongong
  2. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,080
    Likes Received:
    3,488
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Given the small fetch distance, you'd think the period won't be very high i.e. around 8 seconds or so initially then once the low moves further out into the Tasman then we could see some action. Plus it will be REALLY Windy!
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,213
    Likes Received:
    16,301
    Location:
    Blue Mts
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Funnily enough Benny Mac (Coastal Watch) says big divergence in the models for next Monday, but I suggest he’s been busy or on holiday as it’s been clear as day since Monday that models are aligned for this one. CoastalWatch still only has 2ft in their forecast for South Coast (updated yesterday) – eyes are well and truly off the ball here @CoastalWatch.
    SwellNet on the other hand is going for 10ft Monday arvo (SW swell) on the South Coast.

    Period is around 10-12 seconds Monday arvo but I suspect the bulk of what is forecasted is remnants of the frontal fetch originating in the Southern Ocean (the sou-West swell direction is a dead giveaway IMO), rather anything generated from the closed low.

    But yep sure will be windy out of the SW!
     
    nfip, FourSquare04 and Vermillion like this.
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,911
    Likes Received:
    27,883
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Might weaken a tree tonight then in the hope it falls down over this period. Leaning on another tree and it looks tricky to chop out, so i'd much prefer it snapped in the wind when I wasnt underneath it.
     
    jwx and FourSquare04 like this.
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,454
    Likes Received:
    14,793
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Seems the forum is getting really excited. Maybe some SDS absorbed locals will get some rockhoppers on.

    1400-1500m for the Alps on GFS. That's impressive for this time of year.

    As noted before, GFS has very impressive -30 500mb height temps still. EC has -25 500mb height temps, but still cold enough for snow.

    IMO 15-20cm for the Main Range and Vic Peaks. 5-10cm for resorts (1600m ish). Not solid on that with the changes in GFS and GEM progs over the last couple of runs. GFS is currently showing 25-30cm on the Main Range for 00z run, EC with 15-20cm. GEM is still not buying it with a dusting for the MR on its latest prog.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  7. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,041
    Likes Received:
    15,001
    Not sure what SDS is but the hoppers have been readied. Had planned to walk Blue Cow and Guthega Monday.... looks like plan B?
     
    Claude Cat and Majikthise like this.
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,454
    Likes Received:
    14,793
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Snow Deprivation Syndrome. Rockhopping shots required :)
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,890
    Likes Received:
    20,009
    Location:
    Canberra
    15 cents for Charlottes Pass. Possible first BC ski for the year.
     
    Ted Harper and Jellybeans like this.
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,890
    Likes Received:
    20,009
    Location:
    Canberra
  11. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    Late to the game, but better late then never.:)
     
    #61 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Adiabatic cooling might just get a few flakes falling earlier for NSW highlands with that Nor-wester.
     
    Claude Cat and Kletterer like this.
  13. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    [​IMG]



    GEM model is inline the with cold uppers,It wont give much because the model is running with a dew-point @32.
     
    #63 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I didn't say that (if you're quoting me)... that was Jelly. Personally I don't take much notice of GEM so have no need to ref.
     
    Vermillion and jwx like this.
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,890
    Likes Received:
    20,009
    Location:
    Canberra
    How reliable would you say the GFS soundings are 75 hours out.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Pretty good 80-90% depending on complexitiy? Given there's strong alignment I'd say it almost a given now IMO.
     
    nfip and Kletterer like this.
  17. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    I stand corrected,my mistake fixed it.
    Cheers
     
    #67 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
    POW_hungry likes this.
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,454
    Likes Received:
    14,793
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Wait did I do something wrong? I am confused.

    Edit: I realise, I said GEM was lacking snowfall without saying that was caused by the lack of moisture on GEM, rather than temps.
     
    #68 Jellybeans, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  19. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    I observe the Stormcast GFS has been very reliable for precip purposes.
    I use it religiously these days planning my days / weeks working around the likely rainfall.
    Has generally been bad news last month or two but on the "iffy" days it has been spot on the money.
    IMO
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,454
    Likes Received:
    14,793
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    [​IMG]
    EC has had another upgrade in the 00z run. It's now around 25cm.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,511
    Likes Received:
    62,569
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    It's fine so long as you're only looking a few days out. Which is expected given its GFS.
     
    Vermillion, POW_hungry and nfip like this.
  22. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Can feel ....The Vibe.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  23. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    #4-day rule applies.
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,890
    Likes Received:
    20,009
    Location:
    Canberra
    Perhaps something for Buller Sunday night .
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  25. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    Ok this getting boring now plots are a bulls-eye with this system.

    One other thing to beware of is the helicity is high and
    a localised tornado can't be ruled out imo.
    Take care v/likely it will be rough ride.

    [​IMG]
     
    nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,665
    Likes Received:
    3,389
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Yes looks a bit more interesting on yr.no this morning as well.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Models are having a bit of a hard time with the placement and track of the cut off low as it lands in the Tasman. Whilst this system has potential to surprise with something like a foot of fresh snow, I think we'll see these curves straighten out over the next run or two IMO.
     
    #77 POW_hungry, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
    nfip, Vermillion and jungfrau like this.
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,911
    Likes Received:
    27,883
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    I agree with this.
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Models where confusing this punter so I stopped looking at them to closely.
     
  30. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2017
    Messages:
    561
    Likes Received:
    877
    A bit of advice, I am camping at Lake Tabourie (Ulladulla) until Wednesday. How do you think I will go with this low on Monday?
    Looks like it is going to be short, quick and gone within a day. From the forecast I think I will be just far enough north to not cop too much rain. The winds look to be decent but only short lived.
    What are your Thoughts?
     
  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,565
    Likes Received:
    17,393
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    You know its looking more likely when Graeme Creed mentions it on the 7pm new weather segment.

    Looking a good chance of some easter ski touring?
     
  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,213
    Likes Received:
    16,301
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Do you surf? Swell is going to be good.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  33. zapruda

    zapruda One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2017
    Messages:
    318
    Likes Received:
    843
    Location:
    Canberra
    I already have the skis in the car and the bag packed!
     
    Snow Blowey likes this.
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I'd keep an eye on it mate. These types of cut off scenarios are difficult to predict in terms of where they track. There's no doubt this one has plenty of moisture but really comes down to how north it tracks.
    As it currently stands for the South Coast it'll be wet along with the main front on Sunday night and then showers Monday into early Tuesday AM IMO.

    Two things are for sure though, Lake Tabourie is a beautiful spot and the surf will be macking Mon-Wed. Wind won't be kind Monday/Tuesday at all...
     
    nfip, Arsas and Majikthise like this.
  35. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2017
    Messages:
    561
    Likes Received:
    877
    No not much anymore. I've seen the swell forecast it will be big, too big for me.
     
  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,213
    Likes Received:
    16,301
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    I dont think it is going to be pleasant.. i figure you will be checking out the delights of Ulladulla.
     
    Claude Cat, nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    As Pow advised.
    also what it does when it likely drifts over the warm water.
    [​IMG]

    Head into town and get some serious tie down if you don't already have it.
    South T you'll be pretty much copping the full brunt of this one by the looks.
    [​IMG]
     
    Majikthise and POW_hungry like this.
  38. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    I'd move camp and head for the Ulludulla holiday park........then walk to the Marlin!!!!!!!
     
    Majikthise and POW_hungry like this.
  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Just go to the Marlin later this arvo around 5 or so ...and South T in a 40 knots southerly will be a pleasantry by comparison .
     
    Majikthise and Zimboo like this.
  40. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    LOL Them good ol public bar, grab a pool cue brawls!!!!!
     
  41. Little Austria

    Little Austria Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2016
    Messages:
    20
    Likes Received:
    75
    I heard Greame mention snow sunday/monday as well last night so had to log on today to catch up. Hopefully we get 20-30 cents above 1600m and being school hols ATM the resorts do a promo like Buller did at the end of April in 2009.
     
    Ted Harper likes this.
  42. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2016
    Messages:
    1,044
    Likes Received:
    1,477
    Windy and tough in a tent. I often go to Burrill Lake just up the road to my son's place. It gets windy there, very windy with systems like this.
     
  43. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2007
    Messages:
    11,073
    Likes Received:
    10,545
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindy
    Going 4wd/camping in the victorian high country for easter - looking brrr already with snow on yr.no for Saturday night!
     
  44. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2005
    Messages:
    167
    Likes Received:
    39
    Location:
    Sydney
    Could someone please give an ELI5 explanation of these graphs, I've been trying to get a handle on them for a while but I'm struggling.
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    SurlyJoe5000, Jellybeans and Zimboo like this.
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,898
    Likes Received:
    10,699
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Yeah...naah.
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,989
    Likes Received:
    22,084
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Batten the hatches.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    FourSquare04, Vermillion and sbm like this.
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    You Tube is the easiest way to get your head around the basics HERE
     
    nfip and D_Dog like this.
  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,213
    Likes Received:
    16,301
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Tornado watch
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,534
    Likes Received:
    26,150
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I note that GFS 00Z has this cut off system lingering coast-side throughout Monday as it skull drags itself up the coast.
    We could be looking down the barrel of some very big falls (irrespective of snow). Let's see what EC has to say about that in an hour two.

    GFS points to upper level moisture being drawn in from the northern Tasman.
    [​IMG]