Predictions 9-11April Cut Off Low

FourSquare04

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Sep 11, 2001
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IDG00074.gif
 

FourSquare04

A Local
Sep 11, 2001
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GFS going colder again with -28C temps at 500mb, further and wider over the alps. -30C above Bass Straight... Those are mid-winter temps! She's looking colder each day. All over by early morning Monday though.

Swells (& wind) on the south coast are set to be massive. I know a few southern corners that will pump. I am sure @SAsurfa is keeping an eye on this one from AK.
Screen Shot 2017-04-06 at 8.33.43 am.png

Given the small fetch distance, you'd think the period won't be very high i.e. around 8 seconds or so initially then once the low moves further out into the Tasman then we could see some action. Plus it will be REALLY Windy!
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Given the small fetch distance, you'd think the period won't be very high i.e. around 8 seconds or so initially then once the low moves further out into the Tasman then we could see some action. Plus it will be REALLY Windy!
Funnily enough Benny Mac (Coastal Watch) says big divergence in the models for next Monday, but I suggest he’s been busy or on holiday as it’s been clear as day since Monday that models are aligned for this one. CoastalWatch still only has 2ft in their forecast for South Coast (updated yesterday) – eyes are well and truly off the ball here @CoastalWatch.
SwellNet on the other hand is going for 10ft Monday arvo (SW swell) on the South Coast.

Period is around 10-12 seconds Monday arvo but I suspect the bulk of what is forecasted is remnants of the frontal fetch originating in the Southern Ocean (the sou-West swell direction is a dead giveaway IMO), rather anything generated from the closed low.

But yep sure will be windy out of the SW!
 

Jellybeans

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Seems the forum is getting really excited. Maybe some SDS absorbed locals will get some rockhoppers on.
IMG_0438.PNG

1400-1500m for the Alps on GFS. That's impressive for this time of year.
IMG_0439.PNG

As noted before, GFS has very impressive -30 500mb height temps still. EC has -25 500mb height temps, but still cold enough for snow.

IMO 15-20cm for the Main Range and Vic Peaks. 5-10cm for resorts (1600m ish). Not solid on that with the changes in GFS and GEM progs over the last couple of runs. GFS is currently showing 25-30cm on the Main Range for 00z run, EC with 15-20cm. GEM is still not buying it with a dusting for the MR on its latest prog.
 
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SMSkier

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Seems the forum is getting really excited. Maybe some SDS absorbed locals will get some rockhoppers on.
IMG_0438.PNG

1400-1500m for the Alps on GFS. That's impressive for this time of year.
IMG_0439.PNG

As noted before, GFS has very impressive -30 500mb height temps still. EC has -25 500mb height temps, but still cold enough for snow.

IMO 15-20cm for the Main Range and Vic Peaks. 5-10cm for resorts (1600m ish). Not solid on that with the changes in GFS and GEM progs over the last couple of runs. GFS is currently showing 25-30cm on the Main Range for 00z run, EC with 15-20cm. GEM is still not buying it with a dusting for the MR on its latest prog.

Not sure what SDS is but the hoppers have been readied. Had planned to walk Blue Cow and Guthega Monday.... looks like plan B?
 
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jwx

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5e8f569613.png




GEM model is inline the with cold uppers,It wont give much because the model is running with a dew-point @32.
 
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Jellybeans

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Wait did I do something wrong? I am confused.

Edit: I realise, I said GEM was lacking snowfall without saying that was caused by the lack of moisture on GEM, rather than temps.
 
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nfip

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How reliable would you say the GFS soundings are 75 hours out.
I observe the Stormcast GFS has been very reliable for precip purposes.
I use it religiously these days planning my days / weeks working around the likely rainfall.
Has generally been bad news last month or two but on the "iffy" days it has been spot on the money.
IMO
 
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Claude Cat

On my bike
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I observe the Stormcast GFS has been very reliable for precip purposes.
I use it religiously these days planning my days / weeks working around the likely rainfall.
Has generally been bad news last month or two but on the "iffy" days it has been spot on the money.
IMO
It's fine so long as you're only looking a few days out. Which is expected given its GFS.
 

jwx

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Feb 8, 2017
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Ok this getting boring now plots are a bulls-eye with this system.

One other thing to beware of is the helicity is high and
a localised tornado can't be ruled out imo.
Take care v/likely it will be rough ride.

638fe0fe29.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Yes looks a bit more interesting on yr.no this morning as well.
Models are having a bit of a hard time with the placement and track of the cut off low as it lands in the Tasman. Whilst this system has potential to surprise with something like a foot of fresh snow, I think we'll see these curves straighten out over the next run or two IMO.
 
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Vermillion

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Models are having a bit of a hard time with the placement and track of the cut off low as it lands in the Tasman. Whilst this system has potential to surprise with something like a foot of fresh snow, I think we'll see these curves straighten out over the next run or two IMO.

I agree with this.
 

Arsas

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Feb 23, 2017
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A bit of advice, I am camping at Lake Tabourie (Ulladulla) until Wednesday. How do you think I will go with this low on Monday?
Looks like it is going to be short, quick and gone within a day. From the forecast I think I will be just far enough north to not cop too much rain. The winds look to be decent but only short lived.
What are your Thoughts?
 

Snow Blowey

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You know its looking more likely when Graeme Creed mentions it on the 7pm new weather segment.

Looking a good chance of some easter ski touring?
 

Majikthise

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A bit of advice, I am camping at Lake Tabourie (Ulladulla) until Wednesday. How do you think I will go with this low on Monday?
Looks like it is going to be short, quick and gone within a day. From the forecast I think I will be just far enough north to not cop too much rain. The winds look to be decent but only short lived.
What are your Thoughts?
Do you surf? Swell is going to be good.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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A bit of advice, I am camping at Lake Tabourie (Ulladulla) until Wednesday. How do you think I will go with this low on Monday?
Looks like it is going to be short, quick and gone within a day. From the forecast I think I will be just far enough north to not cop too much rain. The winds look to be decent but only short lived.
What are your Thoughts?
I'd keep an eye on it mate. These types of cut off scenarios are difficult to predict in terms of where they track. There's no doubt this one has plenty of moisture but really comes down to how north it tracks.
As it currently stands for the South Coast it'll be wet along with the main front on Sunday night and then showers Monday into early Tuesday AM IMO.

Two things are for sure though, Lake Tabourie is a beautiful spot and the surf will be macking Mon-Wed. Wind won't be kind Monday/Tuesday at all...
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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As Pow advised.
also what it does when it likely drifts over the warm water.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017040618z.fcst-201704101000z.mslp.nsw.null.0.png


Head into town and get some serious tie down if you don't already have it.
South T you'll be pretty much copping the full brunt of this one by the looks.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017040618z.fcst-201704101000z.s10m.nsw.null.0.png
 

Zimboo

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Aug 28, 2014
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As Pow advised.
also what it does when it likely drifts over the warm water.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017040618z.fcst-201704101000z.mslp.nsw.null.0.png


Head into town and get some serious tie down if you don't already have it.
South T you'll be pretty much copping the full brunt of this one by the looks.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017040618z.fcst-201704101000z.s10m.nsw.null.0.png
I'd move camp and head for the Ulludulla holiday park........then walk to the Marlin!!!!!!!
 

Zimboo

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Aug 28, 2014
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Just go to the Marlin later this arvo around 5 or so ...and South T in a 40 knots southerly will be a pleasantry by comparison .
LOL Them good ol public bar, grab a pool cue brawls!!!!!
 

Little Austria

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Aug 24, 2016
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You know its looking more likely when Graeme Creed mentions it on the 7pm new weather segment.

Looking a good chance of some easter ski touring?
I heard Greame mention snow sunday/monday as well last night so had to log on today to catch up. Hopefully we get 20-30 cents above 1600m and being school hols ATM the resorts do a promo like Buller did at the end of April in 2009.
 
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Xwing

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A bit of advice, I am camping at Lake Tabourie (Ulladulla) until Wednesday. How do you think I will go with this low on Monday?
Looks like it is going to be short, quick and gone within a day. From the forecast I think I will be just far enough north to not cop too much rain. The winds look to be decent but only short lived.
What are your Thoughts?
Windy and tough in a tent. I often go to Burrill Lake just up the road to my son's place. It gets windy there, very windy with systems like this.
 

Ozgirl

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Going 4wd/camping in the victorian high country for easter - looking brrr already with snow on yr.no for Saturday night!
 

D_Dog

Hard Yards
Jun 1, 2005
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Considering it's early April, some beautiful temps progged for Sunday eve over the alps.
Nice, moist lower-mid atmos (to about 5k).

Progged sounding is for Thredbo 10pm Sunday:
Screen Shot 2017-04-06 at 8.59.01 am.png

A few cents in Thredbo village is now likely IMO.

Could someone please give an ELI5 explanation of these graphs, I've been trying to get a handle on them for a while but I'm struggling.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I note that GFS 00Z has this cut off system lingering coast-side throughout Monday as it skull drags itself up the coast.
We could be looking down the barrel of some very big falls (irrespective of snow). Let's see what EC has to say about that in an hour two.

GFS points to upper level moisture being drawn in from the northern Tasman.
gfs_midRH_aus_14.png
 
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