Predictions 9-11April Cut Off Low

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Apr 3, 2017.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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  2. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Given the small fetch distance, you'd think the period won't be very high i.e. around 8 seconds or so initially then once the low moves further out into the Tasman then we could see some action. Plus it will be REALLY Windy!
     
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  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Funnily enough Benny Mac (Coastal Watch) says big divergence in the models for next Monday, but I suggest he’s been busy or on holiday as it’s been clear as day since Monday that models are aligned for this one. CoastalWatch still only has 2ft in their forecast for South Coast (updated yesterday) – eyes are well and truly off the ball here @CoastalWatch.
    SwellNet on the other hand is going for 10ft Monday arvo (SW swell) on the South Coast.

    Period is around 10-12 seconds Monday arvo but I suspect the bulk of what is forecasted is remnants of the frontal fetch originating in the Southern Ocean (the sou-West swell direction is a dead giveaway IMO), rather anything generated from the closed low.

    But yep sure will be windy out of the SW!
     
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  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Might weaken a tree tonight then in the hope it falls down over this period. Leaning on another tree and it looks tricky to chop out, so i'd much prefer it snapped in the wind when I wasnt underneath it.
     
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Seems the forum is getting really excited. Maybe some SDS absorbed locals will get some rockhoppers on.

    1400-1500m for the Alps on GFS. That's impressive for this time of year.

    As noted before, GFS has very impressive -30 500mb height temps still. EC has -25 500mb height temps, but still cold enough for snow.

    IMO 15-20cm for the Main Range and Vic Peaks. 5-10cm for resorts (1600m ish). Not solid on that with the changes in GFS and GEM progs over the last couple of runs. GFS is currently showing 25-30cm on the Main Range for 00z run, EC with 15-20cm. GEM is still not buying it with a dusting for the MR on its latest prog.
     
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  7. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Not sure what SDS is but the hoppers have been readied. Had planned to walk Blue Cow and Guthega Monday.... looks like plan B?
     
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Snow Deprivation Syndrome. Rockhopping shots required :)
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    15 cents for Charlottes Pass. Possible first BC ski for the year.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  11. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Late to the game, but better late then never.:)
     
    #61 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Adiabatic cooling might just get a few flakes falling earlier for NSW highlands with that Nor-wester.
     
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  13. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]



    GEM model is inline the with cold uppers,It wont give much because the model is running with a dew-point @32.
     
    #63 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I didn't say that (if you're quoting me)... that was Jelly. Personally I don't take much notice of GEM so have no need to ref.
     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    How reliable would you say the GFS soundings are 75 hours out.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Pretty good 80-90% depending on complexitiy? Given there's strong alignment I'd say it almost a given now IMO.
     
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  17. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I stand corrected,my mistake fixed it.
    Cheers
     
    #67 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
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  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Wait did I do something wrong? I am confused.

    Edit: I realise, I said GEM was lacking snowfall without saying that was caused by the lack of moisture on GEM, rather than temps.
     
    #68 Jellybeans1000, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I observe the Stormcast GFS has been very reliable for precip purposes.
    I use it religiously these days planning my days / weeks working around the likely rainfall.
    Has generally been bad news last month or two but on the "iffy" days it has been spot on the money.
    IMO
     
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  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EC has had another upgrade in the 00z run. It's now around 25cm.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's fine so long as you're only looking a few days out. Which is expected given its GFS.
     
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  22. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Can feel ....The Vibe.
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    #4-day rule applies.
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Perhaps something for Buller Sunday night .
     
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  25. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Ok this getting boring now plots are a bulls-eye with this system.

    One other thing to beware of is the helicity is high and
    a localised tornado can't be ruled out imo.
    Take care v/likely it will be rough ride.

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Yes looks a bit more interesting on yr.no this morning as well.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Models are having a bit of a hard time with the placement and track of the cut off low as it lands in the Tasman. Whilst this system has potential to surprise with something like a foot of fresh snow, I think we'll see these curves straighten out over the next run or two IMO.
     
    #77 POW_hungry, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I agree with this.
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Models where confusing this punter so I stopped looking at them to closely.
     
  30. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    A bit of advice, I am camping at Lake Tabourie (Ulladulla) until Wednesday. How do you think I will go with this low on Monday?
    Looks like it is going to be short, quick and gone within a day. From the forecast I think I will be just far enough north to not cop too much rain. The winds look to be decent but only short lived.
    What are your Thoughts?
     
  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    You know its looking more likely when Graeme Creed mentions it on the 7pm new weather segment.

    Looking a good chance of some easter ski touring?
     
  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Do you surf? Swell is going to be good.
     
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  33. zapruda

    zapruda New Member

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    I already have the skis in the car and the bag packed!
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I'd keep an eye on it mate. These types of cut off scenarios are difficult to predict in terms of where they track. There's no doubt this one has plenty of moisture but really comes down to how north it tracks.
    As it currently stands for the South Coast it'll be wet along with the main front on Sunday night and then showers Monday into early Tuesday AM IMO.

    Two things are for sure though, Lake Tabourie is a beautiful spot and the surf will be macking Mon-Wed. Wind won't be kind Monday/Tuesday at all...
     
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  35. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    No not much anymore. I've seen the swell forecast it will be big, too big for me.
     
  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    I dont think it is going to be pleasant.. i figure you will be checking out the delights of Ulladulla.
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    As Pow advised.
    also what it does when it likely drifts over the warm water.
    [​IMG]

    Head into town and get some serious tie down if you don't already have it.
    South T you'll be pretty much copping the full brunt of this one by the looks.
    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    I'd move camp and head for the Ulludulla holiday park........then walk to the Marlin!!!!!!!
     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Just go to the Marlin later this arvo around 5 or so ...and South T in a 40 knots southerly will be a pleasantry by comparison .
     
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  40. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    LOL Them good ol public bar, grab a pool cue brawls!!!!!
     
  41. Little Austria

    Little Austria Active Member

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    I heard Greame mention snow sunday/monday as well last night so had to log on today to catch up. Hopefully we get 20-30 cents above 1600m and being school hols ATM the resorts do a promo like Buller did at the end of April in 2009.
     
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  42. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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    Windy and tough in a tent. I often go to Burrill Lake just up the road to my son's place. It gets windy there, very windy with systems like this.
     
  43. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Dedicated Member
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    Going 4wd/camping in the victorian high country for easter - looking brrr already with snow on yr.no for Saturday night!
     
  44. D_Dog

    D_Dog Active Member

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    Could someone please give an ELI5 explanation of these graphs, I've been trying to get a handle on them for a while but I'm struggling.
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah...naah.
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Batten the hatches.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    You Tube is the easiest way to get your head around the basics HERE
     
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  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Tornado watch
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I note that GFS 00Z has this cut off system lingering coast-side throughout Monday as it skull drags itself up the coast.
    We could be looking down the barrel of some very big falls (irrespective of snow). Let's see what EC has to say about that in an hour two.

    GFS points to upper level moisture being drawn in from the northern Tasman.
    [​IMG]