Predictions 9-11April Cut Off Low

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Apr 3, 2017.

  1. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    It lingers in the Tasman til at least Thurs on today's weatherzone charts.
     
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  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    It looks like the cut off low and Invest 95P (that is currently progged to become a TC and move south) together create a lot of moisture for already saturated NZ after Ex Debbie flooding.
     
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  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Going to be a wild ol day on the coast and up the hill for sure .
    10m chart.
    [​IMG]

    850

    [​IMG]

    500

    [​IMG]
     
    #103 nfip, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  4. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Fantastic , got to go to Myrtleford on Sunday for a game. Might just blow off the game and keep on going to Falls or Hotham with my trusty rockcrackers
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I am still seeing 10cm above 1800m for Sunday through to early Monday. Snow down to ~1300m at times.
    Rain after daybreak/mid morning Monday for the alps IMO.

    Boyo, it looks wet, windy and wintery for Gippsland to the NSW Sou-Coast from Monday/Tuesday AM.
     
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  6. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Rain on the coast may have a sting in it.

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
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  7. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Yr Hotham has snow starting in the Morning, BOM about 1pm and WZ 9pm... wonder which one is correct? Will be there tomo
     
  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EC is still around 15cm for Main Range.
    GFS is around 25cm.
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I would say Midday for Buller and Baw Baw.
    2pm for Falls and Hotham and Lake Mountain
    5pm for Main Range
    6pm for NSW resorts
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  11. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    It's nice that not everyone around here forgets LM :) :thumbs:
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think below 1800m will see a lot of rain Monday, enough to wipe any evidence of snow IMO.
    Main Range/Mt Perisher will get a fair bit though, it's just the quick fluctuations in FL that will determine how much stays on the ground.
     
    #112 POW_hungry, Apr 8, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2017
  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    I wouldnt be sueprised by upwards of 30 cm falling ....it just wont get the chance to hang around.. tbe precipitation volumes arent the problem. It is where and more inportantly the duration of the FL.
     
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  14. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    To me this system will be more interesting in what it,
    may do when it enters the tasman.
     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Did someone say relative vorticity ? This one likes to fight decay.
     
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  16. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    You are talking in a lingo i like:)
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    100%! Some beautiful inflow. A couple of touch downs perhaps?
     
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  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Ripper rain system for all of southern victoria.
     
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  19. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Rapid change

    Tropical mix with arctic

    High energy

    Beautiful hook

    Anything could happen
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Soggy Sou-East.

    Sunday:


    Monday:
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Average Cut Off Low Lysis (decay) rates from the Pinheiro,Hodges,Gan,Ferreira paper.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Central, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, South West, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 2:32 pm Saturday, 8 April 2017.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A strong cold front is expected to cross the State on Sunday with an associated low pressure system forming over Bass Strait during Sunday afternoon.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/hr with peak gusts to 90 km/h are possible about Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) of the Northeast, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland early Sunday morning, easing by late morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to 110 km/h are likely to develop across southeastern parts of the Southwest district during the morning and extend to the Central and North Central districts during the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to ease overnight Sunday into Monday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible across southeastern parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts during Sunday afternoon and evening.

    24 hour totals of 40 to 60mm are possible over the Central and North Central districts, particularly in the east. Isolated higher falls of 60-80mm are possible across the ranges. Rainfall is expected to contract to eastern Victoria overnight Sunday into Monday.

    Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh.
     
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  23. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    GFS 00Z has -16-18F in the cold cell @ 2metres,
    One would expect the model would have been
    plugged with the data from the bight this late
    into the game.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Such a big anomaly points to a big shift in seasons so early. Some big anomolies around the pole too. -30F to +14F within a few hundred kms it seems!? Extraordinary SSTAs?
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    00z run shows plenty of stall well into Monday arvo.
     
  26. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Temps seem cooler at this time than expected? If morning warming doesn't affect things too much may see snow sooner than expected.. thoughts
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not for me they don't. The only factor influencing 'earlier' snow is winds, which for the most part remains to be seen @850mb. IMO snow for somewhere like Hotham (~1800m) snow is due around 1-3pm tomorrow - If I was to be a betting man, I would say ~2:30pm.
     
    #127 POW_hungry, Apr 8, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2017
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Something you don't see very often here in Melbourne.

    Sunday 9 April
    Showers, tending to areas of rain over southern and mountain areas with some heavy falls developing during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Snowfalls down to 1200 metres Sunday evening. Mild in the east at first with fresh northerly winds. Colder, fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly winds extending across the State during the day and reaching gale to storm force along parts of the coast and ranges.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ...and looks to be coming right up through The Rip
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Tomorrow nights 9:30pm Spirit of Tasmania sailing promises to be a "chunder express"!
     
  31. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Thanks POW_hungry for the response, totally appreciate it. I should be there at 2:30 with a grin on me face :)
     
  32. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    On satellite the trough looks not to far off from kinking (tear off) detach from the meridional flow and ride the jetstream. Also has a nice dry slot
     
    #132 jwx, Apr 8, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2017
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Funky up at 500 - that cloud mass counter rotation counter rotation over Perth way
     
  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    I predict i will be cold working outdoors in Orange tomorrow.
     
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  35. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Updated SWW

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Central, East Gippsland, North Central, West and South Gippsland and parts of the South West and North East Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 5:07 pm Sunday, 9 April 2017.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A strong cold front is currently clearing the far east of the State, while an associated low pressure system over central parts of Bass Strait is forecast to move to the northeast this evening. A second low pressure system is forecast to develop in eastern Bass Strait overnight.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to 110 km/h will continue across southern and southeastern parts of the Southwest district and adjacent parts of the Central district, before extending into the remaining parts of the Central district and the North Central district during the evening. Winds are expected to ease from the west overnight Sunday into Monday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible across eastern and coastal parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts during the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning, contracting to the east during Monday morning.

    24 hour totals of 40 to 60mm are likely across eastern and coastal parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts. Isolated higher falls of 60 to 80mm are possible. Rainfall is expected to contract to eastern Victoria overnight Sunday into Monday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast to develop about West and South Gippsland during Monday morning, extending into East Gippsland by early afternoon. Rainfall is expected to ease about West and South Gippsland during Monday afternoon.

    24 hour totals of 20 to 40mm are likely about western parts of Gippsland, increasing to 30 to 60mm through central parts and 50 to 100mm through East Gippsland.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts to 100km/h are expected to develop about the Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) of the Northeast, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts during Monday morning.

    Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne Traralgon and Bairnsdale.

    The strongest wind gusts recorded to 1630 EST include:
    - 120km/h at Falls Creek
    - 119km/h at Mt Hotham
    - 106km/h at Mt Buller
    - 100km/h at Mount Gellibrand

     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking like an upgrade on the models for falls West of Melbourne too. That's still another 30-40mm left to go for some stations...
     
  38. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Oooo, might need to dust off the skis!
     
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  39. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    NSW BOM this morning

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Max 11
    Shower or two. Very windy.
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Central Tablelands area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the south, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1200 metres this morning. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h turning southwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 18.
     
  40. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    Well we survived the weekend. Lake Tabourie was sitting in a sweet spot and missed the majority of the rain and the wind. Each band of weather that cam over on Sunday had a split in it right above us. Only had a few mm of rain at most. The peak gust recorded at Ulladulla was close to 40km from the SW. I was checking all weather forecasts and BOM had a severe weather warning for Gale force winds and Willy Weather was predicting near gale winds Tuesday Morning. We made an executive decision and packed up on Monday and moved into a cabin and waited for the end of the world but it never happened. The southerly picked up Tuesday afternoon but nothing extreme. All in all it was a great weekend, we told the kids we were packing up and going home on Monday. We drove off the campsite, camper trailer attached and then pulled into the cabin carpark and they were stoked, we hardly ever stay in a cabin.
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Good one.
    Was thinking of you as it went both sides of us on Monday.
    Worst of it went straight East and well to the South .
    The other band went around the back and circulated North .
    All the models and forecasts where looking like a pretty significant system and we're right in the firing line.
    We got lucky here this time the eye seemed almost directly on top of us.
    Stoked you guys got to enjoy the Coast at / near it's best.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Onya mate, nice one.
    Peak gust through Ulladulla was actually much higher at 34kts (avg winds 20 kts) on early on Tuesday AM. Which puts gusts in the Gale warning category, but you're right it was mainly in the storm wind warning range. Offshore would've be drastically different though.
    Glad you made a good camping trip away, nonetheless.
     
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