Predictions 9-11April Cut Off Low

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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gfs_mslp_pcpn_swpac_25.png

It looks like the cut off low and Invest 95P (that is currently progged to become a TC and move south) together create a lot of moisture for already saturated NZ after Ex Debbie flooding.
 
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Kelpieboy

One of Us
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Jun 27, 2015
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Fantastic , got to go to Myrtleford on Sunday for a game. Might just blow off the game and keep on going to Falls or Hotham with my trusty rockcrackers
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I am still seeing 10cm above 1800m for Sunday through to early Monday. Snow down to ~1300m at times.
Rain after daybreak/mid morning Monday for the alps IMO.

Boyo, it looks wet, windy and wintery for Gippsland to the NSW Sou-Coast from Monday/Tuesday AM.
 

jungfrau

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Jun 25, 2013
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Yr Hotham has snow starting in the Morning, BOM about 1pm and WZ 9pm... wonder which one is correct? Will be there tomo
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Yr Hotham has snow starting in the Morning, BOM about 1pm and WZ 9pm... wonder which one is correct? Will be there tomo
I would say Midday for Buller and Baw Baw.
2pm for Falls and Hotham and Lake Mountain
5pm for Main Range
6pm for NSW resorts
 
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POW Hungry

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Majikthise

Sage
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I wouldnt be sueprised by upwards of 30 cm falling ....it just wont get the chance to hang around.. tbe precipitation volumes arent the problem. It is where and more inportantly the duration of the FL.
 
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Claude Cat

On my bike
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SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, South West, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:32 pm Saturday, 8 April 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A strong cold front is expected to cross the State on Sunday with an associated low pressure system forming over Bass Strait during Sunday afternoon.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/hr with peak gusts to 90 km/h are possible about Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) of the Northeast, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland early Sunday morning, easing by late morning.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to 110 km/h are likely to develop across southeastern parts of the Southwest district during the morning and extend to the Central and North Central districts during the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to ease overnight Sunday into Monday.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible across southeastern parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts during Sunday afternoon and evening.

24 hour totals of 40 to 60mm are possible over the Central and North Central districts, particularly in the east. Isolated higher falls of 60-80mm are possible across the ranges. Rainfall is expected to contract to eastern Victoria overnight Sunday into Monday.

Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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GFS 00Z has -16-18F in the cold cell @ 2metres,
One would expect the model would have been
plugged with the data from the bight this late
into the game.
894b0b8510.png



894c917cbd.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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GFS 00Z has -16-18F in the cold cell @ 2metres,
One would expect the model would have been
plugged with the data from the bight this late
into the game.
894b0b8510.png



894c917cbd.png
Such a big anomaly points to a big shift in seasons so early. Some big anomolies around the pole too. -30F to +14F within a few hundred kms it seems!? Extraordinary SSTAs?
 
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jungfrau

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Jun 25, 2013
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Temps seem cooler at this time than expected? If morning warming doesn't affect things too much may see snow sooner than expected.. thoughts
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Temps seem cooler at this time than expected? If morning warming doesn't affect things too much may see snow sooner than expected.. thoughts
Not for me they don't. The only factor influencing 'earlier' snow is winds, which for the most part remains to be seen @850mb. IMO snow for somewhere like Hotham (~1800m) snow is due around 1-3pm tomorrow - If I was to be a betting man, I would say ~2:30pm.
 
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Claude Cat

On my bike
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Something you don't see very often here in Melbourne.

Sunday 9 April
Showers, tending to areas of rain over southern and mountain areas with some heavy falls developing during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Snowfalls down to 1200 metres Sunday evening. Mild in the east at first with fresh northerly winds. Colder, fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly winds extending across the State during the day and reaching gale to storm force along parts of the coast and ranges.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Something you don't see very often here in Melbourne.

Sunday 9 April
Showers, tending to areas of rain over southern and mountain areas with some heavy falls developing during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Snowfalls down to 1200 metres Sunday evening. Mild in the east at first with fresh northerly winds. Colder, fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly winds extending across the State during the day and reaching gale to storm force along parts of the coast and ranges.
Warning Categories Coastal waters wind warnings issued by the Bureau are categorised as follows :

Strong Wind Warning: Winds averaging from 26 knots and up to 33 knots.
Gale Warning: Winds averaging from 34 knots and up to 47 knots.
Storm Force Wind Warning: Winds averaging from 48 knots and up to 63 knots .
Hurricane Force Wind Warning: Winds averaging 64 knots or more.

Conversion: 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour = 1.85 kilometres per hour.
...and looks to be coming right up through The Rip
IDYEC003.vic.20170409_1200.png
 
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jungfrau

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Jun 25, 2013
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Not for me they don't. The only factor influencing 'earlier' snow is winds, which for the most part remains to be seen @850mb. IMO snow for somewhere like Hotham (~1800m) snow is due around 1-3pm tomorrow - If I was to be a betting man, I would say ~2:30pm.
Thanks POW_hungry for the response, totally appreciate it. I should be there at 2:30 with a grin on me face :)
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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On satellite the trough looks not to far off from kinking (tear off) detach from the meridional flow and ride the jetstream. Also has a nice dry slot
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Funky up at 500 - that cloud mass counter rotation
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017040806z.fcst-201704082200z.s500.aus.null.0 (1).png
counter rotation over Perth way
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
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Updated SWW

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central, East Gippsland, North Central, West and South Gippsland and parts of the South West and North East Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:07 pm Sunday, 9 April 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A strong cold front is currently clearing the far east of the State, while an associated low pressure system over central parts of Bass Strait is forecast to move to the northeast this evening. A second low pressure system is forecast to develop in eastern Bass Strait overnight.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to 110 km/h will continue across southern and southeastern parts of the Southwest district and adjacent parts of the Central district, before extending into the remaining parts of the Central district and the North Central district during the evening. Winds are expected to ease from the west overnight Sunday into Monday.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible across eastern and coastal parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts during the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning, contracting to the east during Monday morning.

24 hour totals of 40 to 60mm are likely across eastern and coastal parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts. Isolated higher falls of 60 to 80mm are possible. Rainfall is expected to contract to eastern Victoria overnight Sunday into Monday.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast to develop about West and South Gippsland during Monday morning, extending into East Gippsland by early afternoon. Rainfall is expected to ease about West and South Gippsland during Monday afternoon.

24 hour totals of 20 to 40mm are likely about western parts of Gippsland, increasing to 30 to 60mm through central parts and 50 to 100mm through East Gippsland.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts to 100km/h are expected to develop about the Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) of the Northeast, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts during Monday morning.

Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne Traralgon and Bairnsdale.

The strongest wind gusts recorded to 1630 EST include:
- 120km/h at Falls Creek
- 119km/h at Mt Hotham
- 106km/h at Mt Buller
- 100km/h at Mount Gellibrand

IDV65657[1].gif
 

Untele-whippet

beard stroker
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2006
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Blue Mtns, 1100M.
NSW BOM this morning

Summary
wind.png

Max 11
Shower or two. Very windy.
Chance of any rain: 60%
rain_60.gif

Central Tablelands area
Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the south, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1200 metres this morning. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h turning southwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 18.
 

Arsas

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Feb 23, 2017
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I'd keep an eye on it mate. These types of cut off scenarios are difficult to predict in terms of where they track. There's no doubt this one has plenty of moisture but really comes down to how north it tracks.
As it currently stands for the South Coast it'll be wet along with the main front on Sunday night and then showers Monday into early Tuesday AM IMO.

Two things are for sure though, Lake Tabourie is a beautiful spot and the surf will be macking Mon-Wed. Wind won't be kind Monday/Tuesday at all...
Well we survived the weekend. Lake Tabourie was sitting in a sweet spot and missed the majority of the rain and the wind. Each band of weather that cam over on Sunday had a split in it right above us. Only had a few mm of rain at most. The peak gust recorded at Ulladulla was close to 40km from the SW. I was checking all weather forecasts and BOM had a severe weather warning for Gale force winds and Willy Weather was predicting near gale winds Tuesday Morning. We made an executive decision and packed up on Monday and moved into a cabin and waited for the end of the world but it never happened. The southerly picked up Tuesday afternoon but nothing extreme. All in all it was a great weekend, we told the kids we were packing up and going home on Monday. We drove off the campsite, camper trailer attached and then pulled into the cabin carpark and they were stoked, we hardly ever stay in a cabin.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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Jul 24, 2006
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Well we survived the weekend. Lake Tabourie was sitting in a sweet spot and missed the majority of the rain and the wind. Each band of weather that cam over on Sunday had a split in it right above us. Only had a few mm of rain at most. The peak gust recorded at Ulladulla was close to 40km from the SW. I was checking all weather forecasts and BOM had a severe weather warning for Gale force winds and Willy Weather was predicting near gale winds Tuesday Morning. We made an executive decision and packed up on Monday and moved into a cabin and waited for the end of the world but it never happened. The southerly picked up Tuesday afternoon but nothing extreme. All in all it was a great weekend, we told the kids we were packing up and going home on Monday. We drove off the campsite, camper trailer attached and then pulled into the cabin carpark and they were stoked, we hardly ever stay in a cabin.
Good one.
Was thinking of you as it went both sides of us on Monday.
Worst of it went straight East and well to the South .
The other band went around the back and circulated North .
All the models and forecasts where looking like a pretty significant system and we're right in the firing line.
We got lucky here this time the eye seemed almost directly on top of us.
Stoked you guys got to enjoy the Coast at / near it's best.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Well we survived the weekend. Lake Tabourie was sitting in a sweet spot and missed the majority of the rain and the wind. Each band of weather that cam over on Sunday had a split in it right above us. Only had a few mm of rain at most. The peak gust recorded at Ulladulla was close to 40km from the SW. I was checking all weather forecasts and BOM had a severe weather warning for Gale force winds and Willy Weather was predicting near gale winds Tuesday Morning. We made an executive decision and packed up on Monday and moved into a cabin and waited for the end of the world but it never happened. The southerly picked up Tuesday afternoon but nothing extreme. All in all it was a great weekend, we told the kids we were packing up and going home on Monday. We drove off the campsite, camper trailer attached and then pulled into the cabin carpark and they were stoked, we hardly ever stay in a cabin.
Onya mate, nice one.
Peak gust through Ulladulla was actually much higher at 34kts (avg winds 20 kts) on early on Tuesday AM. Which puts gusts in the Gale warning category, but you're right it was mainly in the storm wind warning range. Offshore would've be drastically different though.
Glad you made a good camping trip away, nonetheless.
 
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