Predictions 9-11th May - A Toast to Winter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 1, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles and deterministic models have been signaling a tricky system, buried in the shadows of today's falls. @Jellybeans made mention a 4-5 days ago now.

    There is alignment for a clipper system 10/11th. Ensembles VERY supportive at this stage. Bit surreal to talking back to back systems in early-May but what else is everyone doing...

    EC:
    [​IMG]

    GFS:
    [​IMG]

    IMO, looks like a 5-10cm system for Aus resorts, but still quite fluid in it's set-up so changes likely yet.
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That ridge looks like a problem waiting to happen.
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Holding on. Barely.


    Cold and a few snow showers mostly, after some rain.
    That’s if it isn’t ridged out.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still offering me some hope here, IMO. It's a nice cold system just remains to be seen how much influence/dominance the ridge will have.
    Right now AAO is flip/flopping. Won't last if it hangs neutral +'ive, but if it hangs neg-neutral or neg we're cooking with gas IMO.
    Unfortauntely, unlike this week's system we don't have the benefit of a superposition (strong Kelvin & MJO intersect) during this period.

    Some positivity on paper, however.
     
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  5. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The result of an abnormal strong NH polar vortex throughout the Boreal winter. It draws a long bow to suggest it'll have any impact on Southern Winter.
    You'll see these events every 10-15 years - last time this happened was 2011. A season that was less than inspiring for Aus.
     
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  9. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    All top ups now welcome after seeing that main range cam pic in the obs thread!!
     
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  10. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gfs this morning not really into this system imo
    Accessg looks a lot better, so hopefully gfs ends up a bit like access.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z ukmet was looking a little better with the cross over trough. Clipper likely for vic alps on this. ooz ec and the next ukmet run will give us more insight.

    ukmet-wmo-shemi-z500_anom-8852800.png
     
  13. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    "ISSUE NOTES
    Issued 3 May 2020
    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    SUMMARY:
    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 May to 15 May, 24 May to 28 May, and 4 June to 8 June."

    from Elders Weather - they like something and others across the board including the magic 540 line seem to line up with 10-15 at this stage.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The nodal long wave trough is very 'comforting' (verging on disconcerting!) for early-May.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Canuck gave it a little bump of an upgrade on it's 00z run, FWIW.
    Still a 5-10cm system IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC trending 'positively' this arvo with a modest upgrade.
    [​IMG]
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM (both sides of the border) doesn't mind it.
    Thredbo:

    Expect it to dry out quite quickly on the back-end IMO (10th)
     
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  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah 00z ec came in as a cold clipper over the lower se

    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-9025600.png ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t500-9025600.png ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t700-9025600.png




    ICON 00Z precip forecast.
    icon-all-aus-total_precip_mm-9025600.png
     
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  19. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bit to play with here? IMO
    Hopefully a couple more little sneaky upgrades and I could be a useful little system. Plenty cold enough
     
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  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ukmet thinking a stiff breeze.
    2020-05-03 19_39_38-Meteologix.com.png
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    850mb?
     
  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow.
    King Island residents can bring the cows in.
     
  24. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM forecasting for Hoth to cop a fairly sustained period of high winds.

     
  25. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    continuos base level from early may at spencers for the duration of the season methinks
     
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  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sort of happy but sort of unhappy. Wanted to get out camping this weekend in fine weather. But i guess a bit more snow means it will be possible the following weekend.
     
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  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warm , windy and wet....
    Then 2cm of snow
    sounds lovely
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds like Aus in May.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow down to 450-500m in SWNP Tas on Saturday IMO.
    Someone think of the Taswegians!
     
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  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Atm thinking selwyn and some other locality's in perisher will easily surpass 2 cents.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles RE: moisture.
     
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  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Anyways there was the GFS 18z.
    temperature--500_victas_t16_00-132-2020050318z.png temperature--700_victas_t16_00-132-2020050318z.png cloud--low_victas_t22_00-138-2020050318z.png
    cloud
     
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The 700mb and the 850mb humidity plots on most models have had some moisture content.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Snap shot the last 12z icon run.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    W/NW'ly, Buller's best mate.
    Main Range to do 'better' with adiabatic forcing.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has a lot more SWly in it, that's why it is so cold.
     
  37. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12Z7 to12Z8 UKMET run the beginning of a sharpening axis pushing north. Hoping it holds serve.

    ukmet-wmo-aus-z500_anom-1588507200-1588852800-1588939200-40.gif
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early peaker + a flattening ridge IMO.
    I don’t see any southerly component TBH.
    Zonal AF.
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I reckon it might ridge out. But hoping it won't.
     
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  40. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z icon thinks the atmosphere will be turning.
    icon-all-aus-vort500_z500-9025600.png .


    Canuck ooz held its ground.
    gem-all-aus-z500_anom-8982400 (1).png
    very cold alps clipper.
     
  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Good cold system for tassey!
    This one had good potential for a bit of lower level snow, but yeah looks like it might get mown down by that high!

    Still some time for the system to move around
     
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Concur but could just as easily upgrade.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Knifes edge atm imo
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Stil a solid node there though. Methinks a few degrees here or there will make all the difference


    [​IMG]
     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just tad more south on the 00z ec.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, slipping through to the keeper.
    Mainland's junk is Tassie's Treasure, nonetheless.
     
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  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    With days up our sleeve, u give it any chance ?
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not looking likely IMO.

    But there's big hope (for rain + a smidge of snow) in AXS, yet:
     
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  49. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS interests me, but lets see in 24-48hrs as the #trend is not promising.
    Westernport catchment/Sth Gippy still in line for an inch IMO, whilst Hogan Island will cop a brisk WNW.
     
  50. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Good old axs hey lol