Predictions 9-11th May - A Toast to Winter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 1, 2020.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z ukmet run came in with the v/cold sweep as well
    ukmet-wmo-aus-z500_anom-8982400 (1).png
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hope it’s not back for real.

    Nice and wet for the shipwreck coast.
    Rain for the usual spots in the east too.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    She looks pretty nice in the Bight. Just makes it across Victoria.
     
  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    From what i have seen so far of the 00z models. I will still put my chips on flakes for threadbow. Giving most weight to the cmc atm.







     
    #54 stormkite2000, May 4, 2020
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looks like a good ol' fashion follow up teaser slider system on the charts IMO
     
  6. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Being talked up as a direct hit for WA, but looking like it will peak too early.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Different system. It’s the follow up short wave (after the low South of Wa subsides) that will influence the SE.
     
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  9. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z ukmet clipping perisher with polar air. From what i see with the latest global model runs they all trended to cmc 500mb interesting days ahead atm.
    ukmet-wmo-aus-z500_anom-9025600.png







     
    #60 stormkite2000, May 5, 2020
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah it looks the typical system you would see on paper in mid season. A very cold blast clipping the alps.
     
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  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those 2 fronts that will hit WA will soften up the Bight for this one IMO.
     
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  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    What pow quoted is correct. The global models have been showing the picky back sling from the get-go. It was very noticeable days ago.
     
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  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yep and most of those really cold air blasters are much drier and don't produce a lot of snow, usually like 5-10cm top up type systems....unless....they are combining with some upper level disturbance or interact with a trough from the NW.....
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Some humid moist air in the mix @ 700mb and 850mb. Low and mid cloud cover be the key as the front pushes in as modeled atm @ that date range.
    rh--850_victas_t13_00-105-2020050418z (1).png rh--700_victas_t13_00-105-2020050418z.png





    Precip probs @ that range. Quite a few post's with this slipping away. Until Global models actually show that with consensus. Those predictions are crystal ball stuff without any model data to back em up. :)
     
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  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or there is leftover PW in the atmosphere that it can access. Which there is at the moment.
     
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  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    snaps.
     
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Other thing that i should have mentioned was atm the ridging down in antarctica will likely have a influence on this troughs final position with the heights over the alps.
    2020-05-05 13_40_38-UKMET_ WeatherBell Maps.png



     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  20. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Some nice thickness nudging into southern vic on Saturday morning by the look of the above charts!
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Positively the pre frontal is diminishing on GFS thanks to the hasty Southerly dip the precursor system is showing on 00z
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More troughy in EC's 00z synoptic set-up this arvo.
    Ridge stalling a bit. Bit of ridge growth to it's South, as preempted by @stormkite2000
    [​IMG]
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Prospects are improving a bit. More of a southerly component pushing through.
    Cold enough for Macedon snowfall, so nice and deep cold present.



    With a decent shot of moisture for a top-up style system with a cold backend.
     
  24. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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    540 line getting a bit phallic... Any thoughts on this one??
     

    Attached Files:

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good agreement in the models this morning. Lock it in for 3-5cm 9-10th May IMO.
     
  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That was the 18z ocf.


    Prob's for any precip
     
    #76 stormkite2000, May 6, 2020
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Possibly 10-20cm type baw baw system?
     
  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thinking light snow atm.Snow that can melt quickly and then refreeze and turn road's into sheets of slippery ice. Winterymix.

    As for totals pow kletterer jelly always are usually always closer to the total then me.
     
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  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom's atm.
    Victorian Weather Situation
    A large high pressure system over southeastern Australia will move slowly eastwards to be centred over the Tasman Sea later today. A strong cold front moving across southern W.A. will cross the Bight tonight and is expected to reach southwestern Victoria during Thursday. This cold front will slide south of the Tasman high as it continues east while a second front crossing the Bight is expected to reach the western Victorian border Friday night. This front will move across Victoria on Saturday morning with a cold and unstable airmass to follow.


    NSW Weather Situation
    A high pressure system drifting across southeast Australia is promoting cool mornings and generally dry conditions in New South Wales at present. By later today this high should be centred over the Tasman Sea, directing warmer northerly winds across the state. A cold front is forecast to skim across southern parts of the state during Thursday and Friday, but will have little impact apart from increasing winds. A more robust front is forecast to arrive on the weekend bringing the next significant cool change.
     
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  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Nup too West, would be lucky to get 10cm at Baw Baw IMO. It's a clipper event
     
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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just saying between 12z -03z could be favorable for that 10+ in that locality atm.
    gem-all-aus-rh700-8982400 (1).png gem-all-aus-rh850-8982400.png gem-all-aus-t700-8993200.png I can be bullish.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS also very bullish - can't be discounted but an outlier against other global models IMO.
    On paper AXS is pointing to a 10-15cm system.
    Note the embedded low in Bass Strait which would put all the models to bed if it happened.
     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z OCF came in on par with the 18z.

    precip--precip_vic_t10_00-072-2020050600z.png precip--probability_vic_t10_00-072-2020050600z.png





    GFS total cloud cover











    You could chase it and with reasonable confidence just on the 700mb rh plots.
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ICON also see's the unstable airmass.

    2020-05-06 15_06_33-Meteologix.com.png


    The models snow suggests it see's more than just snow from orographic forcing from low level clouds as other models have been indicating. Its seeing high thick cloud as well in a dynamic atmosphere. At that date on the run.
     
    #84 stormkite2000, May 6, 2020
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
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  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's Automated Modelling at present forecasts 13 cm of snow above 1650M at Hot
    Ham and Dinner Plain i.e. JB Plain and Paw Paw Plain. It could happen . We are less than 4 days away from Saturday and the supposed snow showers .BOM are on board for this snowfall at that location.
     
  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  37. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Weatherzone
    @weatherzone

    ·
    3h
    For the second weekend in a row, temperatures will drop low enough for #snow to fall in highland areas of #NSW, #Victoria and #Tasmania.
    [​IMG]
    1
    1
    Show this thread
    [​IMG]
    Weatherzone
    @weatherzone

    ·
    3h
    The cold front will affect parts of #NSW, #Victoria and #SouthAustralia, bringing showers, strong and potentially damaging winds.
    1
    Show this thread
    [​IMG]
    Weatherzone
    @weatherzone

    ·
    3h
    Last week, some places had their coldest day this early in autumn in over 60 years. But don’t put away your hoodie just yet, ANOTHER cold snap will hit southeastern #Australia this weekend.




    Will leave @ this and look @ the total after the event. And see witch model did best.
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    But on the whole, not looking overly excited if you are talking about snow totals in a vacuum.

    Buller EC:
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should start to see snow through Vic resorts around 11/12pm Saturday (1-2pm through NSW resorts) IMO.
    3-5cm of snow.

    15-25mm is the going rate for the curtain-raiser IMO.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Some nice cold air progged to push into western vic Saturday morning according to tonight gfs update imo
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I believe it.

     
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  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    Ms.Bunn's automated modelling has backed away from 10 cm+ above 1600 m. at Hot Ham and surrounds. The next weather system arriving on May 15th looks interesting. I only need 10 cm of snow to go rock hopping esp. DELETED. The pattern of low pressure potentially snow bearing weather systems is starting resemble that which we find in the ski season rather than the shoulder periods.

    [Mod note: keep the politics out of weather threads]
     
    #93 Mister Tee on XC Skis, May 7, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: May 8, 2020
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  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looking Jucy on access g3.

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whatever comes it’s in the wake of raised dust IMO.....looking to the SW just now. Evident along the mountain range and from Moonbah, Jindy and surrounds......

     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *including rain.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AH fark me - i thought we were done with that shit for a while.
     
  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Scored some western face action on Tuesday out on the main range. Was hoping the next few dumps would build on from there. Not really that keen on the Dust, but hopefully the rain will wash it away.
     
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  50. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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