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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 1, 2020.
00z ukmet run came in with the v/cold sweep as well
I hope it’s not back for real.
Nice and wet for the shipwreck coast.
Rain for the usual spots in the east too.
She looks pretty nice in the Bight. Just makes it across Victoria.
From what i have seen so far of the 00z models. I will still put my chips on flakes for threadbow. Giving most weight to the cmc atm.
Looks like a good ol' fashion follow up teaser slider system on the charts IMO
Being talked up as a direct hit for WA, but looking like it will peak too early.
Different system. It’s the follow up short wave (after the low South of Wa subsides) that will influence the SE.
12z ukmet clipping perisher with polar air. From what i see with the latest global model runs they all trended to cmc 500mb interesting days ahead atm.
Yeah it looks the typical system you would see on paper in mid season. A very cold blast clipping the alps.
Those 2 fronts that will hit WA will soften up the Bight for this one IMO.
What pow quoted is correct. The global models have been showing the picky back sling from the get-go. It was very noticeable days ago.
Yep and most of those really cold air blasters are much drier and don't produce a lot of snow, usually like 5-10cm top up type systems....unless....they are combining with some upper level disturbance or interact with a trough from the NW.....
Some humid moist air in the mix @ 700mb and 850mb. Low and mid cloud cover be the key as the front pushes in as modeled atm @ that date range.
Precip probs @ that range. Quite a few post's with this slipping away. Until Global models actually show that with consensus. Those predictions are crystal ball stuff without any model data to back em up.
Or there is leftover PW in the atmosphere that it can access. Which there is at the moment.
Other thing that i should have mentioned was atm the ridging down in antarctica will likely have a influence on this troughs final position with the heights over the alps.
Some nice thickness nudging into southern vic on Saturday morning by the look of the above charts!
Positively the pre frontal is diminishing on GFS thanks to the hasty Southerly dip the precursor system is showing on 00z
More troughy in EC's 00z synoptic set-up this arvo.
Ridge stalling a bit. Bit of ridge growth to it's South, as preempted by @stormkite2000
Prospects are improving a bit. More of a southerly component pushing through.
Cold enough for Macedon snowfall, so nice and deep cold present.
With a decent shot of moisture for a top-up style system with a cold backend.
540 line getting a bit phallic... Any thoughts on this one??
Good agreement in the models this morning. Lock it in for 3-5cm 9-10th May IMO.
That was the 18z ocf.
Prob's for any precip
Possibly 10-20cm type baw baw system?
Thinking light snow atm.Snow that can melt quickly and then refreeze and turn road's into sheets of slippery ice. Winterymix.
As for totals pow kletterer jelly always are usually always closer to the total then me.
Victorian Weather Situation
A large high pressure system over southeastern Australia will move slowly eastwards to be centred over the Tasman Sea later today. A strong cold front moving across southern W.A. will cross the Bight tonight and is expected to reach southwestern Victoria during Thursday. This cold front will slide south of the Tasman high as it continues east while a second front crossing the Bight is expected to reach the western Victorian border Friday night. This front will move across Victoria on Saturday morning with a cold and unstable airmass to follow.
NSW Weather Situation
A high pressure system drifting across southeast Australia is promoting cool mornings and generally dry conditions in New South Wales at present. By later today this high should be centred over the Tasman Sea, directing warmer northerly winds across the state. A cold front is forecast to skim across southern parts of the state during Thursday and Friday, but will have little impact apart from increasing winds. A more robust front is forecast to arrive on the weekend bringing the next significant cool change.
Nup too West, would be lucky to get 10cm at Baw Baw IMO. It's a clipper event
Just saying between 12z -03z could be favorable for that 10+ in that locality atm.
I can be bullish.
AXS also very bullish - can't be discounted but an outlier against other global models IMO.
On paper AXS is pointing to a 10-15cm system.
Note the embedded low in Bass Strait which would put all the models to bed if it happened.
00z OCF came in on par with the 18z.
GFS total cloud cover
You could chase it and with reasonable confidence just on the 700mb rh plots.
ICON also see's the unstable airmass.
The models snow suggests it see's more than just snow from orographic forcing from low level clouds as other models have been indicating. Its seeing high thick cloud as well in a dynamic atmosphere. At that date on the run.
Ms.Bunn's Automated Modelling at present forecasts 13 cm of snow above 1650M at Hot
Ham and Dinner Plain i.e. JB Plain and Paw Paw Plain. It could happen . We are less than 4 days away from Saturday and the supposed snow showers .BOM are on board for this snowfall at that location.
For the second weekend in a row, temperatures will drop low enough for #snow to fall in highland areas of #NSW, #Victoria and #Tasmania.
Show this thread
The cold front will affect parts of #NSW, #Victoria and #SouthAustralia, bringing showers, strong and potentially damaging winds.
Show this thread
Last week, some places had their coldest day this early in autumn in over 60 years. But don’t put away your hoodie just yet, ANOTHER cold snap will hit southeastern #Australia this weekend.
Will leave @ this and look @ the total after the event. And see witch model did best.
But on the whole, not looking overly excited if you are talking about snow totals in a vacuum.
Should start to see snow through Vic resorts around 11/12pm Saturday (1-2pm through NSW resorts) IMO.
3-5cm of snow.
15-25mm is the going rate for the curtain-raiser IMO.
Some nice cold air progged to push into western vic Saturday morning according to tonight gfs update imo
I believe it.
Ms.Bunn's automated modelling has backed away from 10 cm+ above 1600 m. at Hot Ham and surrounds. The next weather system arriving on May 15th looks interesting. I only need 10 cm of snow to go rock hopping esp. DELETED. The pattern of low pressure potentially snow bearing weather systems is starting resemble that which we find in the ski season rather than the shoulder periods.
[Mod note: keep the politics out of weather threads]
Looking Jucy on access g3.
Whatever comes it’s in the wake of raised dust IMO.....looking to the SW just now. Evident along the mountain range and from Moonbah, Jindy and surrounds......
AH fark me - i thought we were done with that shit for a while.
Scored some western face action on Tuesday out on the main range. Was hoping the next few dumps would build on from there. Not really that keen on the Dust, but hopefully the rain will wash it away.