Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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All models supportive of a cut-off feature forming around Bass Strait Wednesday PM/Thursday AM and deepening as it heads into the Tasman on Friday.
GFS going for a multicore Low which rapidly deepens Friday bringing some bullish rainfall figures and very destructive winds. Much of GFS’s scenario is seemingly an outlier at this stage, IMO.

What all models agree on is the polar feed bringing snowfall down as low as 1000m Friday arvo/eve.
Upwards of 30-50cm of snowfall from Thursday to Saturday for Thredbo above 1400m IMO.

EC
F5F671AF-3839-4549-BE36-1B5183BCD2FE.png


GFS
F72579FA-1349-4DE0-803F-51DA0E9E5193.png
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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Parcel Deformation/ flow plot- juicy. Quite a sizable eddy. Red lines are Axis of Orientation.
deformation.png
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
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mine.png
GFS showing Some warm air advection into the mix . Still some room for improvement IMO
mine1.gif
 

doogasnow

One of Us
Mar 7, 2010
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Moe south
Love the look of this system!! Plenty of
Rain for the south east coupled with good looking snowfalls!!:thumbs:
Snow possible around that 800-1000m
Mark ?? Imo
A great system to whatch
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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Box Hill, VIC
39.7cm on Yr.no/EC for Mt Perisher
IMG_4188.jpg

You get similar figures at Kosi and Thredbo.

25.1cm on Yr.no/EC for Mt Hotham
IMG_4189.jpg

Buller and Falls are both a few cms higher.

You can see that Victoria is going to get substantially less from this system compared to Perisher and Thredbo.
What I like the most about this is at least three solid nights to get snow guns up and running. I think it's still great for May.

Thurs-Sun Precip QPF
IMG_4192.PNG

Melbourne is particularly impressive, finally a proper soak.

50-60mm for the Snowy Mountains region, not represented in Yr/No though.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
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850 hPa heights around the 1300 metre mark :thumbs:. Probably be some pockets of subside
lesson.gif
nce in amongst strong areas of bouyancy and some possible occlusion action- or trowel activity ?. Will be interesting. Keep left unless overtaking :D
 

rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
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Gerroa
so all noise as per most weather in the aussie alps.

how bad is this going to for the Illawarra and NSW coast in general
 

Reetro

One of Us
Sep 7, 2017
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39.7cm on Yr.no/EC for Mt Perisher
IMG_4188.jpg

You get similar figures at Kosi and Thredbo.

25.1cm on Yr.no/EC for Mt Hotham
IMG_4189.jpg

Buller and Falls are both a few cms higher.

You can see that Victoria is going to get substantially less from this system compared to Perisher and Thredbo.
What I like the most about this is at least three solid nights to get snow guns up and running. I think it's still great for May.

Thurs-Sun Precip QPF
IMG_4192.PNG

Melbourne is particularly impressive, finally a proper soak.

50-60mm for the Snowy Mountains region, not represented in Yr/No though.


Pity yr.no flips around a lot. Victoria usually get less as they are lower.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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From my experience; Aus mountains notoriously receive rain ahead of a snow system - no matter the season. This one is modeled to have bugger all. A unique one.
And from mine too, given I ski at Buller after all, but this definitely feels like a winter system, both with uppers (-30 to -32 degrees Celsius) and lowers. It's genuine cold.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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Box Hill, VIC
Pity yr.no flips around a lot. Victoria usually get less as they are lower.
Quite often, but some systems like a southerly wind system do better at Buller and the lower two Vic resorts. Yr.no is a product of the EC model, and models flip around all the time, usually less when it starts to get into the 4-5 day range.
 
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Reetro

One of Us
Sep 7, 2017
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Be really nice t
Quite often, but some systems like a southerly wind system do better at Buller and the lower two Vic resorts. Yr.no is a product of the EC model, and models flip around all the time, usually less when it starts to get into the 4-5 day range.
Be really nice to see the 3m again
 

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