Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 6, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    All models supportive of a cut-off feature forming around Bass Strait Wednesday PM/Thursday AM and deepening as it heads into the Tasman on Friday.
    GFS going for a multicore Low which rapidly deepens Friday bringing some bullish rainfall figures and very destructive winds. Much of GFS’s scenario is seemingly an outlier at this stage, IMO.

    What all models agree on is the polar feed bringing snowfall down as low as 1000m Friday arvo/eve.
    Upwards of 30-50cm of snowfall from Thursday to Saturday for Thredbo above 1400m IMO.

    EC


    GFS
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS G points to High influence taking some wind out of the sails, so to speak.
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    I'm starting to believe
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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  5. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Jindy cops and theTowies say bring it on .;)
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS looking more logical on the 18Z run. More in tune with EC.
    Swell and wind look much more manageable and realistic (those figures it came out with on the 12Z run were stunning).
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Looks offshore as
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I don't understand ?
    Axs it getting squeezed up along parallel to the the Coast...
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    On EC
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    00Z runs will be interesting. Come in spinner.
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Parcel Deformation/ flow plot- juicy. Quite a sizable eddy. Red lines are Axis of Orientation.
     
  12. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards

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    This is all looking good for my local hills, the Wadbilliga high ground - 1300mts. Love a cold SSE blast. Staying tuned....
     
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  13. MarkV

    MarkV Addicted
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    @Mister Tee on snow shoes was asking about BC skiing around Moscow Villa in the Nunniongs. If this system comes off there are likely to be good snow falls there. Nunniongs are near Ensay in East Gippsland.
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    GFS showing Some warm air advection into the mix . Still some room for improvement IMO
     
  15. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us
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    So there could be something in this for Vic? People north of the border seem to be getting excited.
     
  16. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    Love the look of this system!! Plenty of
    Rain for the south east coupled with good looking snowfalls!!:thumbs:
    Snow possible around that 800-1000m
    Mark ?? Imo
    A great system to whatch
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Certainly . Sat could be more marginal temps though. Models still have a degree of volatility.
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    39.7cm on Yr.no/EC for Mt Perisher

    You get similar figures at Kosi and Thredbo.

    25.1cm on Yr.no/EC for Mt Hotham

    Buller and Falls are both a few cms higher.

    You can see that Victoria is going to get substantially less from this system compared to Perisher and Thredbo.
    What I like the most about this is at least three solid nights to get snow guns up and running. I think it's still great for May.

    Thurs-Sun Precip QPF

    Melbourne is particularly impressive, finally a proper soak.

    50-60mm for the Snowy Mountains region, not represented in Yr/No though.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    850 hPa heights around the 1300 metre mark :thumbs:. Probably be some pockets of subside nce in amongst strong areas of bouyancy and some possible occlusion action- or trowel activity ?. Will be interesting. Keep left unless overtaking :D
     
  20. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    WZ gone all in.
     
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  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Their snow algorithm likes it too.
     
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  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    I recall some comments in the past that 2006 also saw this set up in May?
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    No.
    It didn't .
    We had cold snow around Easter / ANZAC day.
    Selwyn got 30/40cm of snow.
    Then it went dry pretty much.
    Cold though.
     
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  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    so all noise as per most weather in the aussie alps.

    how bad is this going to for the Illawarra and NSW coast in general
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Depends on the wind direction IMO.
    When it goes south. Will be wild n wet
     
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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    any chance it can turn into an ECL (east coat low)
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Not much of a chance. But that is a far more mesoscale type of forecast.
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not impossible but IMO that high will shoe it NZ-wards pretty lickity split.
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    #4dayrule
     
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  31. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Hard Yards

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    And wasn't 06 a cracking season!
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    If you liked grass. Apparently, yep it was dismal.
     
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  33. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons One of Us
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    2006 Bullarghhh

    [​IMG]
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    One particular thing I like about this system is the shear-lack of pre-frontal rain. It's straight out of the South and well stacked.
    A proper polar blast.
     
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  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    A winter system, as opposed to an autumn ground cooler. As you said, in the title, a Winter starter....
     
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  37. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro Addicted

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    Pity yr.no flips around a lot. Victoria usually get less as they are lower.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    The uppers pattern on this thing is stupendous. Magnitude baby .
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    From my experience; Aus mountains notoriously receive rain ahead of a snow system - no matter the season. This one is modeled to have bugger all. A unique one.
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Dont recall seeing this much blue goodness in any system for a while.:eek:
     

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  41. Kopite

    Kopite Addicted

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    Fingers crossed this is followed by some nice coolness so it all sticks about
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    And from mine too, given I ski at Buller after all, but this definitely feels like a winter system, both with uppers (-30 to -32 degrees Celsius) and lowers. It's genuine cold.
     
  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    GFS 500mb Temps, really nice 'n' cold.
     
  45. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Quite often, but some systems like a southerly wind system do better at Buller and the lower two Vic resorts. Yr.no is a product of the EC model, and models flip around all the time, usually less when it starts to get into the 4-5 day range.
     
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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    That's a big bubble.
     
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  47. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro Addicted

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    Be really nice t
    Be really nice to see the 3m again
     

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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    EC says Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights are below freezing at least for the major resorts. Good for the snowguns too.
    Models are playing about(GFS), with random systems afterwards.
     
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  49. Ret-ro

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    BOM is on it , I agree the guns should be on this week
     
  50. Outlooker

    Outlooker Hard Yards

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    Don’t be surprised if one of the resorts spin a lift this weekend. Too good a marketing opportunity a few weeks out from the season.;)