Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

Claude Cat

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Jul 6, 2001
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GFS 06z really has the low really bombing in eastern Bass Strait / Tasman. Down to low 980 hPas
CMC and EC have the low weakening rapidly after it transits into the Tasman.
 
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Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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Oh how we've evolved from page one's; 30-50cm.
50 cents is the going rate for most resorts, IMO. 70-80cm system total is the upper-scale, I reckon.
Yeah, Vic got a big downgrade from those 80-110cm figures, 40-60cm is my punt ATM, perhaps a little more for MR Resorts/Hotham/Falls. Most of the really juicy moisture is south of the ranges.
 
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Jellybeans

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GFS 06z really has the low really bombing in eastern Bass Strait / Tasman. Down to low 980 hPas
CMC and EC have the low weakening rapidly after it transits into the Tasman.
UKMO still on the bomb low?
Shame it's all in Bass Strait, would have been fun if we got that direct trajectory.
 

7wombathead

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Aug 4, 2010
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I like this

IDY20201.mslp-precip.048.png

IDY20201.T-500hPa.048.png

IDY20201.T-700hPa.048.png
 
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Jellybeans

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On the plus side. Its now a sick surf forecast for NSW.

GFS has upgraded the LWT to intersect with Australian Alps over the next 386 hrs.

Can I put in PUT OPTION for an early start to 2018.


210 hrs

gfs_mslp_pcpn_aus_35.png

386 hrs

gfs_mslp_pcpn_aus_52.png
It's hardly an upgrade, when there is no case for it yet. Apart from my notice of more tropical rainfall (MJO or some other wave is in town!). Anywhere from the 20-27 May has been on my radar for a little while though. Exciting times that 3rd third of May/1st third of June period I reckon.
 

rocketboy

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It's hardly an upgrade, when there is no case for it yet. Apart from my notice of more tropical rainfall (MJO or some other wave is in town!). Anywhere from the 20-27 May has been on my radar for a little while though. Exciting times that 3rd third of May/1st third of June period I reckon.

Hope so. We need June to be good as it's cold and mostly school holiday free. When there's a reasonable amount of snow there's probably no better time for newbies to give it a go. Cheaper accomodation and instructors who really do like every paying customer who fronts up. Only "downside" is it can be really cold and gets dark early.
 
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Jellybeans

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Hope so. We need June to be good as it's cold and mostly school holiday free. When there's a reasonable amount of snow there's probably no better time for newbies to give it a go. Cheaper accomodation and instructors who really do like every paying customer who fronts up. Only "downside" is it can be really cold and gets dark early.
September is the better option IMHO. Like you said, June is cold and dark, and filled with SDSites. September, cheap as you will get, warm/soft snow, more light, and above all, nobody there.
 

The Plowking

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Aug 15, 2000
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Thanks for the advice, will do. :) They won't mind people skinning up the slopes? (I guess while there's nobody around it won't matter.) Never done that within resort bounds before...
reckon it's the best option with the first big snowfall of any season prior to opening.
Maximise turns with easy access on summer groomed trails not needing much for good turns.
 

Cuddles

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Jul 11, 2015
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Hmmm , projected snow depth figures ( reliability ? ) the loser Baw Baw 1.6 , Buller 7.3 ,Stirling 10.1 , Smiggins 20.9 ,Hotham 22.3 , Mt Perisher 22.7 , Falls 22.9 , Nth Perisher 23.1 , Guthega 24.3 , Spencers Creek 24.3 , Thredbo 24.3 and damn me but the winner is Selwyn 29.0. All measurements are in cm projected at 9am Saturday 12/5/2018 at the max shown depth for each location. This time seems to be the peak for snowdepth at this time.
Would be embarrassed by those figures .. I think there is more there
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
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Oct 12, 2007
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Bom saying totally mint for Thredbo on Friday (Friyay!), good Saturday as well, with a wet lick Sunday morning below 1700
 

Reetro

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Sep 7, 2017
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Hope so. We need June to be good as it's cold and mostly school holiday free. When there's a reasonable amount of snow there's probably no better time for newbies to give it a go. Cheaper accomodation and instructors who really do like every paying customer who fronts up. Only "downside" is it can be really cold and gets dark early.
Is Buller ever busy.. .. that's right its Buller..
 

Belly

A Local
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Oct 22, 2003
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Prediction....
Thursday event for mine. 25-30cm
Friday pm Saturday not so much in Victoria imo.
thredbo could do well though. too warm for baw baw once it starts bombing to east.
Agreed, was saying to my partner if we want to go local snow hunting, ie circa 1000m Captains Flat or Brindys, it will have to be first thing Saturday.
 
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