Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

DidSurfNowSki

One of them
Ski Pass
Jan 19, 2014
12,129
25,446
813
Canberra, ACT
images


Warning to Sheep Graziers
IDV29000

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

Issued at 10:50 am EST on Wednesday 9 May 2018.

Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers, isolated thunderstorms, small hail and westerly winds are expected during Thursday. All districts are likely to be affected. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Wednesday.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,620
27,024
1,063
Canberra
Todays GFS thus far showing slightly less ( but still considerable) ) Divergence. Convergence plots are however less than spectacular. Pressure and Vapour transfer is riding further East. Was always going to be a hard one to pin down.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Fallen

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,371
12,030
813
Bonbeach, Vic
Wow. A bombing low which is progged further east each run from 4 days out. Who'd of thunk it!
Still going for 25 vic resorts thursday with lots for thredbo back half
 
  • Like
Reactions: Snowy Joey

Kelpieboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 27, 2015
2,976
9,008
363
Tooma , NSW
Warning to Sheep Graziers
IDN29000

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes & Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts

Issued at 4:26 pm EST on Wednesday 9 May 2018.

Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and westerly winds are expected during Thursday. Areas likely to be affected include the South West Slopes and Riverina forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes & Plains, Lower Western, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Wednesday.

Now there is the possibility this thing becomes real.
 

Infinity Dawn

One of Us
Sep 28, 2016
402
665
263
Sydney
Thredbo Upgrade for AXSR, that locks me in, im calling 80cm + of snow for the main range. I also predict that it wont melt until the end of the season.

Screen Shot 2018-05-09 at 4.31.08 pm.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: dawooduck

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,439
37,861
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
THUNDERSNOW!

Perisher/Thredbo
Thursday 10 May
Summary
snow.png

Min 0
Max 0
Showers then snow. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible small hail. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon.
 

Infinity Dawn

One of Us
Sep 28, 2016
402
665
263
Sydney
For my analysis I am calling 75mm of precip with only 6mm around being above 0 degrees.

Final prediction. Let's see what happens.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,439
37,861
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Yeah . Am not exactly adding to the vibe sorry. Just a couple of things that show less favourable outcome from what i am seeing atm.
The D models are playing into the whole pin-the-tail scenario. The placement will not only the determining factor for precip but also the hardest thing to prog. It's up to the system itself now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kletterer
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass