Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

PMG

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Jan 3, 2011
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4:30 pm Da Bo update

upload_2018-5-9_16-40-55.png
That Thredbo forecast really hasn't changed much over the last couple of days.
 

Gregah

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Jul 17, 2016
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Spare a thought for the poor ol BoM...chasing this system around the SE trying to nail it down...
Yesterday’s event totals (midrange):
Melbourne 86mm
Hotham 125mm
Today’s event totals:
Melbourne 30mm
Hotham 55mm
Haven’t checked but I suspect some east gippsland areas would have gone the other way...
 
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Infinity Dawn

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Sep 28, 2016
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For perisher ...the temps are below zero from Thursday at 1am until sunday lunch time
I don't think temps are a issue
Between 8:30am to about 2pm it goes above 0 according to meteye. AXSR does show some precip in these areas still but not enough to wash away the snow entirley
 

Outlooker

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Mar 20, 2003
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Between 8:30am to about 2pm it goes above 0 according to meteye. AXSR does show some precip in these areas still but not enough to wash away the snow entirley
Heavy wet snow and then a freeze next week should be ideal for base building. Guns should also fire for a few days so hopefully a good build up with 4 weeks to go.
 

The Fallen

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May 7, 2015
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When it gets this close, I run the BOM charts. 4 dayer still looks good to me. Precip totals are always iffy for a system like this. It all depends on the way the low wobbles once it starts to deepen.

Its a multi headed (complex) low so the wobble will define intensity the same way Collaroy got smashed in 2016.

BOM have embedded troughs deepening inside the rotation as the low develops so all we need is for the low to stall long enough to allow the pressure to drop into the 900's. That then gives the cold uppers a chance to work their magic.

At the end of the day, its an upper cold pool driving a Tasman low with the hope of a Westerly mover.

Its all good
IDG00074-5.gif
 

The Fallen

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May 7, 2015
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Between 8:30am to about 2pm it goes above 0 according to meteye. AXSR does show some precip in these areas still but not enough to wash away the snow entirley

I'm with Donz, uppers are cold and the pressure should keep dropping with embedded troughs built into the rotation so snow should still settle at 1 to 2c IMO.
 
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Donza

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I'm with Donz, uppers are cold and the pressure should keep dropping with embedded troughs built into the rotation so snow should still settle at 1 to 2c IMO.
850 temps are cold and with the low pressures, 850hpa is around 1350 to 1400m asl.
 
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The Fallen

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May 7, 2015
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BOM have lowered the snow level from 900 to 800m for NSW CTs on Friday.

Personally, I'd be thinking 600m as each embedded trough rolls past. And the troughs are slow movers so decent totals of 10cm above 600m are a good possibility IMO.

Add in the Smoke Particles from the current Burn off in the Blueys adding nuclei then higher than expected totals are very likely IMO
 

Donza

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Apr 21, 2004
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Nah 2000 there was a max of 4.3C. This early in May though its the coldest since 1970
ahhh sorry
"early" may
The bureau says temperatures will plummet to between 2 and 8 degrees below the average for this time of year.

"It will come as quite a shock to people because we have had one of our warmest autumns on record so far," Mr How said.

"Canberra for example will reach a top of just 9 degrees (Celsius) on Friday and that will be the earliest they have had a sub-10 degrees maximum in early May since 1990."

yeah you'd be right - was NRL snow that day no?
 
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tomtankman

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May 12, 2003
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ahhh sorry
"early" may
The bureau says temperatures will plummet to between 2 and 8 degrees below the average for this time of year.

"It will come as quite a shock to people because we have had one of our warmest autumns on record so far," Mr How said.

"Canberra for example will reach a top of just 9 degrees (Celsius) on Friday and that will be the earliest they have had a sub-10 degrees maximum in early May since 1990."

yeah you'd be right - was NRL snow that day no?

Only problem is they didn't have a sub 10C day in 1990 so the BOM dude is confused.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
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Jan 7, 2004
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Thredbo Upgrade for AXSR, that locks me in, im calling 80cm + of snow for the main range. I also predict that it wont melt until the end of the season.

Screen Shot 2018-05-09 at 4.31.08 pm.png

This is one where max snow accumulation will occur east of the main range imo.
As woodduck said-xcountry in nimmitabel. Or snowed in at iron pot creek.
 
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The Fallen

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May 7, 2015
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Trying to tee up a few mates with 4x4 to do a Barringtons mission Friday arvo. If anyone from Cenco NSW is keen, let me know. I'm happy to navigate.
 

POW Hungry

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May 28, 2000
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Gonna be some road closures on the G Alpine Road Friday arvo with 4 cents/hour (+ wind load) IMO.
I am surprised to see not a single mention of 'Blizzard' anywhere on the BoM site Friday night.

P.S. BoM is calling 60-80km/h winds...
Screen Shot 2018-05-09 at 9.30.21 pm.png


Screen Shot 2018-05-09 at 9.18.27 pm.png
 

stridercdh

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May 15, 2011
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So, is it looking likely that the western mountains namely Buller and Baw Baw will miss out on the previously forecast large totals?
 

Nidecker

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Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
Perisher Valley Forecast
View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:45 am EST on Thursday 10 May 2018.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday
Summary
snow.png

Max 3
Snow showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible small hail. Winds northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 11:50 am to 12:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 11 May
Summary
snow.png

Min -6
Max 0
Cold. Snow increasing.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 45 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible hail. Cold westerly winds 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southwesterly 65 to 90 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 12 May
Summary
snow.png

Min -2
Max 3
Snow showers. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
rain_80.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southerly 60 to 85 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 13 May
Summary
light-showers.png

Min -2
Max 4
Possible shower. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%
rain_40.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Snow possible above 1700 metres. Winds southerly 50 to 60 km/h decreasing to 40 to 50 km/h during the morning then turning southeasterly 30 to 40 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 14 May
Summary
light-showers.png

Min -3
Max 6
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%
rain_40.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Tuesday 15 May
Summary
partly-cloudy.png

Min -5
Max 8
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10%
rain_10.gif

Alpine area
Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Wednesday 16 May
Summary
snow.png

Min -4
Max 5
Showers, possible snow at times.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50%
rain_50.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Light winds.
 

Tanuki

Part of the Furniture
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Sep 29, 2010
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Anyone think Donna Buang could get a dusting tomorrow? Thought I could take my daughter up for some sightseeing.
 
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