Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,429
5,027
563
55
vic
Gonna be some road closures on the G Alpine Road Friday arvo with 4 cents/hour (+ wind load) IMO.
I am surprised to see not a single mention of 'Blizzard' anywhere on the BoM site Friday night.

P.S. BoM is calling 60-80km/h winds...
Screen Shot 2018-05-09 at 9.30.21 pm.png


Screen Shot 2018-05-09 at 9.18.27 pm.png

The BOM, in their great wisdom, don't like using the the B' word. Especially in Victoria.

I love & respect the bureau, but some of their reporting policies totally befuddle me - take this case in point. They do have 'sheep' warnings though, so if you head out into the blizzards this weekend, don't take your sheep!

..BTW: Have pointed out to the bureau in the past, after heavy summer rains in Melbourne (50mm) that they seem to place more importance on 'farm weather' Ie. (Brown rot, downy mildew warnings etc...) than people Ie. (Road weather, flood watch or at times, bushwalking alert etc...)

I suspect it's their recent directive to protect the rural sector assets first? Happy to be proved wrong..
 
  • Like
Reactions: Edgecrusher

Karicta

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 9, 2011
6,947
5,172
563
Off topic. But I recall them using ‘blizzard’ on multiple occasions, all appropriate, last winter

Edit; perhaps a search of this forum/threads would reveal exactly when as I reckon someone here would have always posted same
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,429
5,027
563
55
vic
Or if not, go to LM. No gate entry fee.

Hi Tecks, I wonder if the resort will organise a plough. We’re all aware of post issues when outdide the declared season.

... could well be a drive now based on cams. ⛷
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,935
1,631
363
South
Considerable changes in EC this morning and they’re not all good. Just saying.

Well its highly unusual for a cutoff to deliver from the south east Flank unless the geopotential is below 5280 IMO.

They get them on the East Coast of NZ.

But touch wood it could still be a very positive result for the Alpine above 1800m.

Coastal Conditions look intense
 
Last edited:

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,283
27,346
1,063
Yuin Country
Well it highly unusual for a cutoff to deliver from the south east Flank unless the geopotential is below 5280 IMO.

They get them on the East Coast of NZ.

But touch wood it could still be a very positive result for the Alpine above 1800m.

Coastal Conditions look intense
Saturday looks like fun...
imageserver.jsp
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,935
1,631
363
South
IDE00143.201805100330.jpg


The incoming band looks epic

The Low to east looks likes its separating from our Cut off low, reducing the sub-tropical moisture in feed, which will help keep the temps below 0 in the right areas.

On Friday Night, the Best thing for the ECL to do, would be to intensify further east in the Tasman, rather than straight off the coast. Less damage to snow and way better surf, and less coastal chaos.

Maybe one day we will get a 5160 beast, just maybe, that will be able to handle all that moisture.

Looks like a direct hit later tonight. Access R looks way sweeter than GFS at the moment.

IDY20202.mslp-precip.009.png

IDY20202.mslp-precip.012.png
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Platinum
Jul 6, 2001
133,694
93,260
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Initial Flood Watch for Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchments
Issued at 11:25 am EST on Thursday 10 May 2018

Flood Watch Number: 1

Minor flooding may develop from late Friday into Saturday in the Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchments.

A multi-centred low pressure complex forming near Tasmania today is expected to intensify as it moves just east of Bass Strait during Friday. The low will then gradually move eastwards across the Tasman Sea later Saturday and during Sunday.

Catchments within the Flood Watch area are dry. Rainfall totals of up to 25mm have been recorded in the Upper Yarra catchment during the last 24 hours.

During Friday and early Saturday, rainfall totals of around 20 to 30mm are expected for much of the Yarra catchment, with totals of 50 to 100mm across the Yarra Ranges.



Totals of 50 to 100mm are expected across the Gippsland catchments during Friday afternoon and Saturday, with higher falls of 125 to 150mm possible across the Gippsland Ranges.



A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain is current.

River rises are likely in response to the forecast rainfall, with the possibility of minor flooding developing from late Friday into Saturday in the Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchments.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Bemm, Cann and Genoa Rivers


Snowy River

Tambo River

Mitchell River

Avon River

Macalister River

Thomson River

Latrobe River

Traralgon Creek

Yarra River
 
  • Like
Reactions: Snowy Joey

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,893
27,416
1,063
Canberra
Strong low level Convergence/ high level Divergence for Alpine areas is still lacklustre on todays GFS. Bom figures still look overcooked IMO. Gippsland still looks to get a soak.Edit 4.25 Bom update is closer to the money IMO.
believe.gif
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,893
27,416
1,063
Canberra
Yep. The 925- 850. 700, 500 hPa Divergence/ Convergence plots have been not conducive to big falls for the last couple of days. Downgrade was quite probable.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Fallen

Reetro

One of Us
Sep 7, 2017
1,760
1,951
363
IDE00143.201805100330.jpg


The incoming band looks epic

The Low to east looks likes its separating from our Cut off low, reducing the sub-tropical moisture in feed, which will help keep the temps below 0 in the right areas.

On Friday Night, the Best thing for the ECL to do, would be to intensify further east in the Tasman, rather than straight off the coast. Less damage to snow and way better surf, and less coastal chaos.

Maybe one day we will get a 5160 beast, just maybe, that will be able to handle all that moisture.

Looks like a direct hit later tonight. Access R looks way sweeter than GFS at the moment.

IDY20202.mslp-precip.009.png

IDY20202.mslp-precip.012.png
Careful on using the E word.. you may get a bill
 

Kelpieboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 27, 2015
2,993
9,085
363
Tooma , NSW
The BOM, in their great wisdom, don't like using the the B' word. Especially in Victoria.

I love & respect the bureau, but some of their reporting policies totally befuddle me - take this case in point. They do have 'sheep' warnings though, so if you head out into the blizzards this weekend, don't take your sheep!

..BTW: Have pointed out to the bureau in the past, after heavy summer rains in Melbourne (50mm) that they seem to place more importance on 'farm weather' Ie. (Brown rot, downy mildew warnings etc...) than people Ie. (Road weather, flood watch or at times, bushwalking alert etc...)

I suspect it's their recent directive to protect the rural sector assets first? Happy to be proved wrong..

Gee the one thing someone does that puts those who feed the rest of you first and we get complaints and mirth about it . Damn hard school this one, ;););). By the way where do you think your Sunday roast comes from and isn't it worth a little warning from BOM to help protect it ? LOLLOLLOL. What does concern me is that the BOM thinks there are cockies and graziers who actually need these warnings , truth is we don't because anyone who did need them just shouldn't be on the land.
Meanwhile over at the obs thread......................
 

skichic

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
May 26, 2003
19,348
24,310
813
So now, a bit closer, how's it looking for the Snowy Mtns Hiway mid afternoon tomorrow? (Tumut to Adaminaby bit)
 

Infinity Dawn

One of Us
Sep 28, 2016
404
667
263
Sydney
Those EC fall rates tomorrow night are off the charts, but alas, it’s gonna be a soggy Saturday below 1700m.

Edit: I just saw @rocketboy post above. Wow avg of 2 inches and hour that’s gnarls Barkley

Dat damn tail whip

Could be beneficial, if it makes the snow wet, overnight freeze can help base building, just depends how much rain, not to much
 

kiter

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 21, 2002
1,035
724
363
Newcastle
So no more mega dump except for high ground above 1700m with plenty of rain below that?
It got alot of talking up . These lows are always hard to know what theyll do even close to the event . Could have always gone either way . It still could surprise either way too
 
  • Like
Reactions: nfip

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,700
38,786
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
So no more mega dump except for high ground above 1700m with plenty of rain below that?
Shall dump tonight into tomorrow early morning. Winter mix below 1600m for Saturday IMO. This obviously means Perisher is virtually sweet. Thredbo halfway down will be good for snow.

Maybe 20-25cm left in it for NSW
 

Arsas

One of Us
Feb 23, 2017
561
878
263
Shall dump tonight into tomorrow early morning. Winter mix below 1600m for Saturday IMO. This obviously means Perisher is virtually sweet. Thredbo halfway down will be good for snow.

Maybe 20-25cm left in it for NSW

It may not have been as good as was first thought but for May this is awesome.
Nice work and credit for picking this system up early and putting your neck out and following it all the way through.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,283
27,346
1,063
Yuin Country
It may not have been as good as was first thought but for May this is awesome.
Nice work and credit for picking this system up early and putting your neck out and following it all the way through.
2nd that.
there's a lot of time and effort goes into it.
I know from my own humble readings of the varoius charts.
Let alone explaining it.
Cheers @POW_hungry
 

DiscoStuAU

One of Us
May 30, 2015
1,986
5,267
363
Melbourne City, VIC
3rd that from me too. I truly appreciate the efforts of those on the forum who provide their predictions. There is a lot of work that goes into it and sometimes flicking through the threads it can be forgotten, so thank you.

How much more rain and wind are we expecting for Melbourne?
 
  • Like
Reactions: SAL and gaz35

rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
3,201
5,894
363
Gerroa
Big ‘ole ridge looks to block any short wave for the LWT passing the SE on 21-24 May.

Back to regular programming with nothing of significance in the models after Monday IMO.

As long as it does not get warm and humid in next few weeks - Perisher will build a resort out of Perisher Creek and it will be plenty of fun in June. Then suck until it snows.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,288
22,118
813
Box Hill, VIC
As long as it does not get warm and humid in next few weeks - Perisher will build a resort out of Perisher Creek and it will be plenty of fun in June. Then suck until it snows.
And Buller shall have the dynamic trio, Skyline, Bourke St and Baldy. They'll struggle to open Wombat or anything else until further snow.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass