Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 6, 2018.

  1. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    The BOM, in their great wisdom, don't like using the the B' word. Especially in Victoria.

    I love & respect the bureau, but some of their reporting policies totally befuddle me - take this case in point. They do have 'sheep' warnings though, so if you head out into the blizzards this weekend, don't take your sheep!

    ..BTW: Have pointed out to the bureau in the past, after heavy summer rains in Melbourne (50mm) that they seem to place more importance on 'farm weather' Ie. (Brown rot, downy mildew warnings etc...) than people Ie. (Road weather, flood watch or at times, bushwalking alert etc...)

    I suspect it's their recent directive to protect the rural sector assets first? Happy to be proved wrong..
     
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  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic. But I recall them using ‘blizzard’ on multiple occasions, all appropriate, last winter

    Edit; perhaps a search of this forum/threads would reveal exactly when as I reckon someone here would have always posted same
     
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  3. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think there might have been some overnight. Check fb mt Donna Buang, victoria - winter photos. Or warburton the waterwheel, normally local gossip on there.
     
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  4. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or if not, go to LM. No gate entry fee.
     
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  5. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Considerable changes in EC this morning and they’re not all good. Just saying.
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I noticed that
     
  9. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Hi Tecks, I wonder if the resort will organise a plough. We’re all aware of post issues when outdide the declared season.

    ... could well be a drive now based on cams. ⛷
     
  10. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    This is not EC, but it looks pretty good.
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Well its highly unusual for a cutoff to deliver from the south east Flank unless the geopotential is below 5280 IMO.

    They get them on the East Coast of NZ.

    But touch wood it could still be a very positive result for the Alpine above 1800m.

    Coastal Conditions look intense
     
    #611 7wombathead, May 10, 2018
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s been my concern for a few days now, I must admit.
     
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  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday looks like fun...
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tommorrow for Vic.
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. phantomas

    phantomas Hard Yards

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    Oh no! Season killer??


    #first
     
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    The incoming band looks epic

    The Low to east looks likes its separating from our Cut off low, reducing the sub-tropical moisture in feed, which will help keep the temps below 0 in the right areas.

    On Friday Night, the Best thing for the ECL to do, would be to intensify further east in the Tasman, rather than straight off the coast. Less damage to snow and way better surf, and less coastal chaos.

    Maybe one day we will get a 5160 beast, just maybe, that will be able to handle all that moisture.

    Looks like a direct hit later tonight. Access R looks way sweeter than GFS at the moment.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Tonight is the Go.
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Initial Flood Watch for Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchments
    Issued at 11:25 am EST on Thursday 10 May 2018

    Flood Watch Number: 1

    Minor flooding may develop from late Friday into Saturday in the Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchments.

    A multi-centred low pressure complex forming near Tasmania today is expected to intensify as it moves just east of Bass Strait during Friday. The low will then gradually move eastwards across the Tasman Sea later Saturday and during Sunday.

    Catchments within the Flood Watch area are dry. Rainfall totals of up to 25mm have been recorded in the Upper Yarra catchment during the last 24 hours.

    During Friday and early Saturday, rainfall totals of around 20 to 30mm are expected for much of the Yarra catchment, with totals of 50 to 100mm across the Yarra Ranges.



    Totals of 50 to 100mm are expected across the Gippsland catchments during Friday afternoon and Saturday, with higher falls of 125 to 150mm possible across the Gippsland Ranges.



    A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain is current.

    River rises are likely in response to the forecast rainfall, with the possibility of minor flooding developing from late Friday into Saturday in the Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchments.

    Catchments likely to be affected include:

    Bemm, Cann and Genoa Rivers


    Snowy River

    Tambo River

    Mitchell River

    Avon River

    Macalister River

    Thomson River

    Latrobe River

    Traralgon Creek

    Yarra River
     
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  20. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Minor flooding is ok especially to fill the dams and to give relief to the the dry farms.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong low level Convergence/ high level Divergence for Alpine areas is still lacklustre on todays GFS. Bom figures still look overcooked IMO. Gippsland still looks to get a soak.Edit 4.25 Bom update is closer to the money IMO.
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think a foot for Perisher would be a good result
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As expected, after seeing EC this AM.
    It simply hasn’t verified to EC’s prog.

    Thredbo:
     
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. The 925- 850. 700, 500 hPa Divergence/ Convergence plots have been not conducive to big falls for the last couple of days. Downgrade was quite probable.
     
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  25. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Careful on using the E word.. you may get a bill
     
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  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Gee the one thing someone does that puts those who feed the rest of you first and we get complaints and mirth about it . Damn hard school this one, ;););). By the way where do you think your Sunday roast comes from and isn't it worth a little warning from BOM to help protect it ? LOLLOLLOL. What does concern me is that the BOM thinks there are cockies and graziers who actually need these warnings , truth is we don't because anyone who did need them just shouldn't be on the land.
    Meanwhile over at the obs thread......................
     
  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Season starter in 6 hours.
     
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  30. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    the sunny illawarra
    light breeze and puking!

    Hopefully plenty of r*** down low too, to kick off the spawn run this year.
     
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  31. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So now, a bit closer, how's it looking for the Snowy Mtns Hiway mid afternoon tomorrow? (Tumut to Adaminaby bit)
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    take the car ;)
    soz :out:
     
  33. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Noted. :p
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those EC fall rates tomorrow night are off the charts, but alas, it’s gonna be a soggy Saturday below 1700m.

    Edit: I just saw @rocketboy post above. Wow avg of 2 inches and hour that’s gnarls Barkley

    Dat damn tail whip
     
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  35. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    Could be beneficial, if it makes the snow wet, overnight freeze can help base building, just depends how much rain, not to much
     
  36. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    So no more mega dump except for high ground above 1700m with plenty of rain below that?
     
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this point it would seem rain shouldn't be a problem.
     
  38. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    It got alot of talking up . These lows are always hard to know what theyll do even close to the event . Could have always gone either way . It still could surprise either way too
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shall dump tonight into tomorrow early morning. Winter mix below 1600m for Saturday IMO. This obviously means Perisher is virtually sweet. Thredbo halfway down will be good for snow.

    Maybe 20-25cm left in it for NSW
     
  40. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any love left for VIC?
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should be another 15 or so cm i’d think. Nice band pushing northwards from a Bass Strait. 3-4 hours and it’s back on IMO.
     
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  42. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    It may not have been as good as was first thought but for May this is awesome.
    Nice work and credit for picking this system up early and putting your neck out and following it all the way through.
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    2nd that.
    there's a lot of time and effort goes into it.
    I know from my own humble readings of the varoius charts.
    Let alone explaining it.
    Cheers @POW_hungry
     
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  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    3rd that from me too. I truly appreciate the efforts of those on the forum who provide their predictions. There is a lot of work that goes into it and sometimes flicking through the threads it can be forgotten, so thank you.

    How much more rain and wind are we expecting for Melbourne?
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    5-10mm
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The impossible happened #longtermpredictionbrigade
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big ‘ole ridge looks to block any short wave for the LWT passing the SE on 21-24 May.

    Back to regular programming with nothing of significance in the models after Monday IMO.
     
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  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    As long as it does not get warm and humid in next few weeks - Perisher will build a resort out of Perisher Creek and it will be plenty of fun in June. Then suck until it snows.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Buller shall have the dynamic trio, Skyline, Bourke St and Baldy. They'll struggle to open Wombat or anything else until further snow.