Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 6, 2018.

  1. Kopite

    Kopite One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2017
    Messages:
    497
    Likes Received:
    624
    Location:
    North Curly
    Talking of further snow - what do the weather gurus see following this? Anything on the horizon as yet?
     
    Ret-ro and Froff Life like this.
  2. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    58,412
    Likes Received:
    27,568
    Location:
    East Coast

    3cms on the 21st
    16cms on the 26th
    18mm rain on the 27th
    fog and freezing rain on Wednesdays

    until November
     
    Kopite, Bloke and rocketboy like this.
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    That's plenty for the punters.
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,341
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    not for me though.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yes, but you're not 50% of the paying public.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,534
    Likes Received:
    3,663
    Location:
    Melbourne City, VIC
    Damm. So my trip up to falls on the 25th is probably not going to result in a snow fall at this stage.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,341
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    probably not. but there is still plenty of time until then. MJO still aligns a little bit, probably more in early June IMO.
     
    #657 Jellybeans, May 11, 2018
    Last edited: May 11, 2018
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  8. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    278
    Likes Received:
    418
    Location:
    Sydney
    How does the MJO = Snow? isnt that for the tropics? or does it enable troughs to link with fronts = snow?
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,341
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yes, the moisture in North Australia (often in NW Aus) links up with a coldfront in SE Aus, when the MJO is in the region. So it tends to increase snowfall for the Australian Alps. It also affects the tropics though.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    S
    still two weeks away mate. Wouldn’t rule it out yet, however the one I was watching for around the 22/25th looks unlikely for now.
     
    Claude Cat and DiscoStuAU like this.
  11. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    278
    Likes Received:
    418
    Location:
    Sydney
    oooo yay, then im not looking at any climate models until it comes, they are all wrong!
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The MJO promotes the growth and flux of Rossby Waves, particularly strong MJO signals. As a result, there are correlations with polar air and frontal activity with the MJO’s passing signal, or shortly thereafter.

    I anticipate part the reason for the shift in the D models could be because the MJO forecast has slowed in the last week, suggesting we won’t see the MJO in our equatorial region until the first week of June now. Just a hunch...
     
  13. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    6,814
    Likes Received:
    11,229
    From across the SMH this afternoon
     
    Ian, Ret-ro, xuěboarder and 14 others like this.
  14. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2000
    Messages:
    36,776
    Likes Received:
    21,920
    Location:
    the sunny illawarra
    Lovely pics!
     
    chicski, FourSquare04 and POW_hungry like this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Snow for Jindy in next halfa, I’d say, looking across the lake
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  16. Pink

    Pink One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Messages:
    1,513
    Likes Received:
    569
    “On some of the peaks we might see falls of 150mm” in Gippsland overnight, per BOM/ABC
     
    telemark fred and Tanuki like this.
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,567
    Likes Received:
    10,341
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    They have seemed to have slowed a bit, you would be right, I based my own comment on an analysis from last night. Better for QBW.

    The link between rossby waves and the MJO is primarily based upon the GSDM, and represented by the GLAAM.
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,780
    Likes Received:
    3,059
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Once the wind direction shifts SW to S, that's when the snow will start. Has to be from that direction (also for Cooma) otherwise the shadow of the ranges tends to block it if too much W in it
     
    Snow Blowey likes this.
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    In Line with what models have been throwing up for about a week now.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It appears South already, from what I just observed in Thredbo.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  21. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    6,814
    Likes Received:
    11,229
    Was chilly getting out of the car to take them. Especially Kiandra where it was windy and snowing. Pretty though.
     
  22. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2000
    Messages:
    36,776
    Likes Received:
    21,920
    Location:
    the sunny illawarra
    I bet it was!
    Little relief from the wind out there!
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,592
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Warming now in vic as per usual from this type of system.

    Landscaping in Portsea today.
    Flucked. Should have gone to lorne surfing.
     
    derwent, Claude Cat and DiscoStuAU like this.
  24. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2017
    Messages:
    1,123
    Likes Received:
    1,777
    Can someone explain ‘app temp’ to me?
     
  25. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,534
    Likes Received:
    3,663
    Location:
    Melbourne City, VIC
    Its the "it feels like" temp I believe. I think it takes into account humidity and wind + actual temperature to give you a real idea of what it is like outside.
     
  26. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2017
    Messages:
    1,123
    Likes Received:
    1,777
    Thank you kind sir
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,857
    Likes Received:
    14,337
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Water doesnt have feelings so the apparent temp is not relevant to snow weather.
     
    fmdc9 and Rick Ross Da Boss like this.
  28. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    Any likelihood of further snow overnight for Buller or BB? If nought but r@#$ for both will there be anything skiable tomorrow? Looks like my optimistic plans may be dashed.... Can anybody tell me how much snow settled for aforementioned resorts over last two days?
     
  29. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    75,963
    Likes Received:
    40,432
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
  30. JG

    JG Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2000
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    44
    Location:
    Sydney
    Still a lot of cloud wrapping around the tail of the system, based on the Sat image progression.
    System moving east relatively quickly overnight.
    Anyone have more data to back what will win?
    East moving rising pressure vs big blob of wrapping moisture
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Might be a few bursts of good snowfalls for NSW (above 1700m) but to no gain below. Will be a wet one in the villages.
    Perisher looks to be receiving rain at the minute.

    Dat tail whip...
     
  32. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,555
    Likes Received:
    489
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    The forecasts didn’t seem to predict this much sogginess last night?
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,917
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC certainly did. BoM was more thinking it’d hold off until today.