Predictions 9-12 May - Winter Starter Kit

Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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How does the MJO = Snow? isnt that for the tropics? or does it enable troughs to link with fronts = snow?
Yes, the moisture in North Australia (often in NW Aus) links up with a coldfront in SE Aus, when the MJO is in the region. So it tends to increase snowfall for the Australian Alps. It also affects the tropics though.
 
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Infinity Dawn

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Yes, the moisture in North Australia (often in NW Aus) links up with a coldfront in SE Aus, when the MJO is in the region. So it tends to increase snowfall for the Australian Alps. It also affects the tropics though.
oooo yay, then im not looking at any climate models until it comes, they are all wrong!
 
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POW Hungry

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How does the MJO = Snow? isnt that for the tropics? or does it enable troughs to link with fronts = snow?
The MJO promotes the growth and flux of Rossby Waves, particularly strong MJO signals. As a result, there are correlations with polar air and frontal activity with the MJO’s passing signal, or shortly thereafter.

I anticipate part the reason for the shift in the D models could be because the MJO forecast has slowed in the last week, suggesting we won’t see the MJO in our equatorial region until the first week of June now. Just a hunch...
 

skichic

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25CBDF9E-AC1B-4787-97B7-781B80874909.jpeg
47B27DBA-D7D7-4648-9F07-E318E63999FA.jpeg
DFAA4C07-A72C-48CD-9438-38BDE7838565.jpeg
From across the SMH this afternoon
 

Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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The MJO promotes the growth and flux of Rossby Waves, particularly strong MJO signals. As a result, there are correlations with polar air and frontal activity with the MJO’s passing signal, or shortly thereafter.

I anticipate part the reason for the shift in the D models could be because the MJO forecast has slowed in the last week, suggesting we won’t see the MJO in our equatorial region until the first week of June now. Just a hunch...
They have seemed to have slowed a bit, you would be right, I based my own comment on an analysis from last night. Better for QBW.

The link between rossby waves and the MJO is primarily based upon the GSDM, and represented by the GLAAM.
 

stridercdh

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May 15, 2011
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Any likelihood of further snow overnight for Buller or BB? If nought but r@#$ for both will there be anything skiable tomorrow? Looks like my optimistic plans may be dashed.... Can anybody tell me how much snow settled for aforementioned resorts over last two days?
 

CarveMan

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May 12, 2000
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JG

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Jun 26, 2000
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Still a lot of cloud wrapping around the tail of the system, based on the Sat image progression.
System moving east relatively quickly overnight.
Anyone have more data to back what will win?
East moving rising pressure vs big blob of wrapping moisture
 

POW Hungry

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Might be a few bursts of good snowfalls for NSW (above 1700m) but to no gain below. Will be a wet one in the villages.
Perisher looks to be receiving rain at the minute.

Dat tail whip...
 
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