1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

A beautiful set of maps...

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by bogong_flyer, Apr 23, 2007.

  1. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    The BoM's seasonal outlook for the next 3 months has been released. For Australian skiers still traumatised by 2006, they look SWEET indeed!! Am thinking a few decent powder falls that actually maintain fluffyness for several days before turning into the more normal Aussie slush/concrete!!

    The forecast below average day time temps and average precipitation (we can only hope) is suggestive of fairly cloudy conditions that should keep the snow pack in good condition once we start getting some accumulations.

    Whether the outlook actually translates into reality or not we will have to wait and see...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,677
    Likes Received:
    17,398
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    bit of a shift on Qld DPI from a couple of weeks ago. [​IMG]

    Beware- it ain't quite apples with apples and the colour scales are different. I think Filski's call of increased liklihood of ECL's could be a good one... 1996 anyone?
     
    #2 Majikthise, Apr 23, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2002
    Messages:
    5,223
    Likes Received:
    585
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    I'll take a repeat of 96 this year thanks!
     
  4. Gimble

    Gimble First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2006
    Messages:
    287
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Could someone please post the charts from the same time last year, for comparison?

    Btw, a repeat of 06 would be no good for me because it looks like there was a big thaw right over the start of july when i will be there :rolleyes: ...then again, there would probably be enough snow and terrain open compared to last year that I wouldn't care [​IMG]
     
    #4 Gimble, Apr 23, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 1999
    Messages:
    75,708
    Likes Received:
    11,521
    Location:
    Gulmarg Resort Kashmir
    beautiful
    but is it true
     
  6. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    18,461
    Likes Received:
    11,871
    Location:
    melbourne
    I love those maps. Rain or snow. Even if they dont come off, i will love them now.
     
  7. keefy

    keefy First Runs

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2003
    Messages:
    1,131
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    About time, I didn't get to the maps just yet, saved me time [​IMG] think I should think about some sacrifices, maybe I split my first set of ski's ??? Looking a whole lot better, although it would have been a little nicer to see a higher chance of colder than normal temps for the Alps (60% +) :thumbs: of course May's run could show an even better position ????
     
    #7 keefy, Apr 23, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    4,820
    Likes Received:
    2,829
    Location:
    vic
    Amazing to see below-average temps predicted for a season (or a major part thereof) [​IMG]

    Can anyone recall how long since this last happened?
    And when was the last winter with below-average temps predicted? [​IMG]
     
    #8 snowgum, Apr 24, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    12,139
    Likes Received:
    7,489
    Location:
    Elwood
    so what happened to global warming then. Just a load of political bull$h!t????. Below average temps and rain, johnny howard must be praying every night, (and its working apparently)
     
    #9 Chowder11, Apr 24, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 1, 2004
    Messages:
    445
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Thredbo
    let me see.... my reading of the maps are...

    a forward computer model of forcast median temps and rainfall for the next 3 months suggests a 55-60% chance of the min temp being less than average and a 50 -50 chance of above average rainfall.......
    or

    a 45-40% chance of hotter and 50-50 drier!!!!


    well I reckon.... (and its only because John Moore says so) it will ........................................

    Snow on and off thoughout the winter cycle though with the disclaimer that the climate system is a coupled, non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the prediction of future climate states to greater than 50 % is impossible.

    Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis

    here's to a good year :clown:
     
  11. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    38,645
    Likes Received:
    19,025
    Hmmmm... I was going to ask why are they such a good set of maps since they show roughly equal chances of either happening. Literally toss of a coin stuff.

    But then I delved deeper.

    Note todays date. Here is my winter forecast. I will not give dates unless they are hunches, I have nothing to back them up. I will give trends, that is as accurate as anyone can be without guessing.

    First up is the reasoning. Earlier I said that things were positive if we headed into a La Nina. That is now happening. Also the AAO is trending negative currently and my bet is that it will continue to do so. The significance of this is twofold, firstly a move from positive to a negative phase shows that the polar jet is weakening and that the subtropical jet is moving towards the equator. This has implications for the movement of highs northwards rather than hanging in the bight. Secondly it is happening nice and early in the season. Years that
    most closely match this current setup are the 1987-1988 seasons.

    Timing of this switch is important as it could be thhe difference between an average season and an epic season. The timing and magnitude this years switch indicates that it will not be epic.

    In general my tip for the season is for continuing dry till end of June. We will see some promising systems early but there will be no associated moisture. Temperatures will be slightly above average. From Mid June we will see a fall to average temperatures although temps will be slightly above average during daytimes. Rainfall will increase from the last week of June with consistent falls in NSW for July and August and into Sept. Vic will remain slightly below average in both temps and rainfall.

    If a switch back to a positive AAO occurs in Aug/Sept the season will be a long one with continued rain. If not it will peter out with rainfall becoming scarce. ECL will be important throughout the season since I expect warm water to remain off the east coast. These could either bring rain or snow to the alps and are too hard to guess this far out.

    In a nutshell. An average season peaking between 150-170cm in NSW (no idea for Vic). Rainfall will be above average only from July and will back off end of August. Temperatures will allow snowmaking to top up occasional early season falls until mid July when most resorts should fully open with regular natural falls. Temperatures will mostly remain marginal during daytimes so a risk of rain affected snow though nightly topups should be the good stuff.

    Key periods - chance of surprise early snow in late May then little till late June. No blocking highs should be obvious during July and August. SSTs in the bight and off the east coast need to be watched in the tail end of the season for adding moisture to the atmosphere.


    Not ground breaking, sticking quite close to the averages because that's what I see - repeats of 87/88. Forecast made using SOI, MJO, AAO teleconnections plus a little intuition (ie guesses). First time I have used this method so low confidence only.
     
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,212
    Likes Received:
    3,742
    Location:
    Wollongong
    It happened over the 2004 season, we had consistently below avg temps for most the ski season which was sensational!!! For some reason it was just over the snowy mtns.....how convenient!
     
    #12 FourSquare04, Apr 24, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  13. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

    Joined:
    May 22, 2001
    Messages:
    12,591
    Likes Received:
    271
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I'm tipping that this will be close to the mark. The one thing that you do metion is the formation of east coast lows due to the higher water temp off the east coast. In general this means more snow for NSW than Vicco.

    The latest SST anomoly is at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.21.2007.gif (I don't link to it, it's wide). But the warm pool seems to be coasting away down towards tassie now being replaced with more neutral conditions.

    The thing to remember with east coast lows is if they hook up with a cold front, you can get all kind of snowy shenannigans happening (referring to the recent bench mark for such events, which was in May 2006). Here's hoping we get a couple of those puppies!
     
    #13 Yardsale, Apr 24, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    122,945
    Likes Received:
    70,079
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Anyone worried about the sudden negative drop in the SOI?
    [​IMG]

    Yes, I know it can jump around, but the magnitude of the drop is somewhat disconcerting.
     
    #14 Claude Cat, Apr 26, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,638
    Likes Received:
    28,821
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    not worried.
     
  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,212
    Likes Received:
    3,742
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Where's Sandy ?!!

    Sandy always says a rapidly falling SOI around this time of year is a very good sign of a good winter (ski season) coming up....however I don't know about this rapid a drop!

    Care to ellaborate Sandy ?!
     
  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,677
    Likes Received:
    17,398
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    #17 Majikthise, Apr 26, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    122,945
    Likes Received:
    70,079
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    sorry didn't see that one.
    Fyi; The graph above is from the 24th April.
     
    #18 Claude Cat, Apr 26, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    67,849
    Likes Received:
    21,560
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    It's still April, and I try not to read too much into it yet.
    Give it another month and we'll see where we're up to....
     
  20. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    38,645
    Likes Received:
    19,025
    Time for an update.

    Well the AAO is roughly neutral now. If it can stay away from strong +ve territory till mid-July then we are OK. The reason for this is that a positive mode means that pressure is low towards the pole and high at mid latitudes and provide strong westerly winds with less incursions northwards from the pole (I think I said this before but differently). If it stays negative or neutral it means that we have decent chance for strong fronts to cross upwards from the bight and towards the alps so often. I'm happy to say this is still the case.

    It wasn't dry but it was above average. NSW and QLD are doing better than Vic for rainfall. I still think there is an increased chance of rainfall towards the end of the month. I'm interested in a period starting around 3 weeks from now and lasting several weeks.

    Doing rather well so far [​IMG]

    Snowfall is ahead of expectations. I think we will see good followup falls through the rest of June and into July. I haven't looked further ahead as of yet. I have a suspicion that dew points and temps will tend marginal for snowmaking though but not confident.

    All up the original was specific enough not to play to the averages, especially with the ECL call. It's roughly on track. Will have a look again in July.
     
    #20 filski, Jun 8, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  21. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    38,645
    Likes Received:
    19,025
    Just quickly.
    AAO has stayed -ve and is forecast to stay so for a little while yet. Good chance of avoiding blocking systems so any southern incursions on the charts has a good chance of coming off for the next 2 weeks at least. ENSO remains just on the negative side of neutral. Looking back at trends and rates of change in the various teleconnections I see years like '62, '96, etc. SOI doesn't match so don't expect quite a repeat.

    This is the start of the period mentioned above. I think it will be less exciting than first thought after this weeks marginal system. By that I mean it will still snow but the sustained cold perod I saw will not come off. In fact there are regular, almost weekly falls ahead for some weeks yet but nothing out of the ordinary. Watch out for prefrontal **** though as there is a slightly increased risk IMHO, leading to little gain in depths.
     
  22. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    31,066
    Likes Received:
    4,444
    Location:
    NSW Mid North Coast
    Just looking at the visable satelite pics.

    If you have weather zone have a look at the last 24 hours and the injection of moisture out of the NW from near Broome.

    Just a wonderful series of satelite pics.


    You will need to be a member of weatherzone to look at these

    Looking at the pics, with all that moisture coming out of the NW and now, (living on the north coast of NSW), ive watched 10mm fall into the gauge over the last few hours.

    That additional moisture will be over eastern NSW and the tasman sea for this weeks ECL
     
    #22 Taipan, Jun 25, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  23. snow momma

    snow momma Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2003
    Messages:
    663
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Yes, I hear you...but does that equate to SNOW..in your humble opinion.
    You know, Taipan, I am weak at the knees for your prognostications for the coming week.
    BTW, it didn't rain for my 40th..but it was lovely and chilly :)