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Day to Day Adelaide / SA weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by StormCapture, Jul 5, 2019.

  1. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And now it's blue and baking and the evaporation rate is ~170%
     
    Peli89 likes this.
  2. wernerk

    wernerk Hard Yards

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    Found 0.5mm of dihydrogen monoxide in the bottom of the rain gauge this morning to start off the rainfall account for 2021.
     
  3. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You were lucky.:)
     
  4. Gary Smith

    Gary Smith First Runs

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    Given our persistent lack of meaningful (read any) rainfall in SA a discussion on another platform raised the following points as to why La Nina is not the saviour that La Nina was made out to be by Agencies and media -

    'As far as forecasts are concerned, the BOM should have seen the pattern of persistent high pressure ridging up from the Tasman sea blocking La Nina's potential hence our dry spring and summer. Also the ACCESS-S model doesn't take those local factors into consideration when making long term forecasts of above average rainfall'.

    Thoughts anyone?
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why did people think Nina would be a saviour in the first place? It’s just one factor of many.
     
  6. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My long term observation is Nemo and Nina only have a marginal to nil impact on SA, the Indian Ocean and to some extent the Timor Sea are more important to us.
     
  7. Gary Smith

    Gary Smith First Runs

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    You get hooked up in the Media and certain other Agencies hyperbole that was spread in Sep/Oct with multiple articles advising that ALL of Australia would received above average rainfall.
     
  8. wernerk

    wernerk Hard Yards

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    I think the main effect of La Nina in Adelaide appears to be a cooler summer than normal. The northern parts of the state may be lucky enough to score some extra rainfall from tropical systems that stray further south & east than normal. I do remember in the 70's & early 80's that after a few hot days, there more often than not was a thundery change. After about 1984, the number of thunderstorms in Adelaide seem to have decreased overall.
     
  9. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A trace in the Exeter gauge this morning, a bit more onsite in Kent Town.
     
  10. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2020 Year to end figures.
     
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  11. betsuin

    betsuin First Runs

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    Cycling to work this morning (Magill to Kilburn) from 7am I certainly noticed a band of rain.
    Glad I packed my rain jacket, wish I had put on my rear mud-guard!
    I did not actually get soaked though which real rain would have seen, just rather damp..
     
    skifree likes this.
  12. ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ

    ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Hard Yards

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    the highs in the bight seem to becoming more numerous, large,
    long lived and overall more prominant as the years go by.
    rapidly turning out to be another trophy class crap summer.
    ...although a good one if you don't like the heat.

    TH
     
  13. ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ

    ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Hard Yards

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    its amazing how mind numbingly deep the southerly
    penitration is into Qld, the NT and NE WA.
    a lack of LWTs and a piss weak ITCZ, a half hearted
    la nina, an IOD with no balls and a -ve sam all contribute
    to this screwed up season. a perfect storm of crap.
    normally the subtropical ridge would be cutting through
    inland aus but instead its got its arse well and truly
    bogged in the bight... ho hum... riveting stuff.

    TH
     
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  14. Gary Smith

    Gary Smith First Runs

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    Dare I say it; however, could there be rain for Adelaide and greater SA on or around Australia Day?
     
  15. ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ

    ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Hard Yards

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    things are looking a tad more pear shaped mid next week,
    not before time either.
    heat + moisture = ....er... cant remember how it goes.
    oh yeah... heat + moisture + s.a. = SFA
    oh well, might get some wet if we're lucky.
    at least it will be a normal weekend for a change.
    keep an eye on those advance models,
    could be a tropical soaker.

    TH
     
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  16. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nup, no weather here, this is Radelaide, we do not do weather.

    Every day is the same as the last.

    Except when it’s not, then it’s the same as tomoroz.
     
    ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ likes this.
  17. Gary Smith

    Gary Smith First Runs

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    Absolute soaker next week. I realise this far out accuracy is questionable; however, BOM has us at a 30% chance of 0.4mm!
     
    ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ likes this.
  18. Ricky_

    Ricky_ First Runs

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    ACCESS looking pretty damn nice on the latest run.
    Cross your fingers, and toes
     
  19. ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ

    ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Hard Yards

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    good to see you here ricky, welcome.
    can you put your location in your profile please.
    yes access is looking good and so is gfs and ec.
    they vary a little on timings, amounts and locations
    which is normal even right up to the day but the
    general consensus overall is that the shit starts to
    hit the fan around monday and follows up to thursday.
    its not just the amounts of moisture that have me drooling, its the
    amount of heat that hangs around.
    the extreme at the moment is GFS with 22° DPs and 30° temps
    next thurs arvo here and out in the mallee 26° DPs and 34° temps.
    that's hardcore troppo. cant get too excited,
    still a long way out, things can go pear shaped real quick.
    at least its something to talk about.
    also interesting to note is BOMs short forecast for monday is
    cloudy 30° and tuesday mostly sunny 24°.
    somewhat conservative to say the least.

    TH
     
  20. FarmWeather

    FarmWeather First Runs

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    Check out some of the air pressures progged in models. On the low side very low. All about were it tracks now like taking a jack russell for a walk without a lead when there are rabbits about.
     
  21. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which equals zero chance.:(

    When we see 90% chance we are in with a sniff.:)