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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by StormCapture, Jul 5, 2019.
And now it's blue and baking and the evaporation rate is ~170%
Found 0.5mm of dihydrogen monoxide in the bottom of the rain gauge this morning to start off the rainfall account for 2021.
You were lucky.
Given our persistent lack of meaningful (read any) rainfall in SA a discussion on another platform raised the following points as to why La Nina is not the saviour that La Nina was made out to be by Agencies and media -
'As far as forecasts are concerned, the BOM should have seen the pattern of persistent high pressure ridging up from the Tasman sea blocking La Nina's potential hence our dry spring and summer. Also the ACCESS-S model doesn't take those local factors into consideration when making long term forecasts of above average rainfall'.
Why did people think Nina would be a saviour in the first place? It’s just one factor of many.
My long term observation is Nemo and Nina only have a marginal to nil impact on SA, the Indian Ocean and to some extent the Timor Sea are more important to us.
You get hooked up in the Media and certain other Agencies hyperbole that was spread in Sep/Oct with multiple articles advising that ALL of Australia would received above average rainfall.
I think the main effect of La Nina in Adelaide appears to be a cooler summer than normal. The northern parts of the state may be lucky enough to score some extra rainfall from tropical systems that stray further south & east than normal. I do remember in the 70's & early 80's that after a few hot days, there more often than not was a thundery change. After about 1984, the number of thunderstorms in Adelaide seem to have decreased overall.
A trace in the Exeter gauge this morning, a bit more onsite in Kent Town.
2020 Year to end figures.
Cycling to work this morning (Magill to Kilburn) from 7am I certainly noticed a band of rain.
Glad I packed my rain jacket, wish I had put on my rear mud-guard!
I did not actually get soaked though which real rain would have seen, just rather damp..
the highs in the bight seem to becoming more numerous, large,
long lived and overall more prominant as the years go by.
rapidly turning out to be another trophy class crap summer.
...although a good one if you don't like the heat.
its amazing how mind numbingly deep the southerly
penitration is into Qld, the NT and NE WA.
a lack of LWTs and a piss weak ITCZ, a half hearted
la nina, an IOD with no balls and a -ve sam all contribute
to this screwed up season. a perfect storm of crap.
normally the subtropical ridge would be cutting through
inland aus but instead its got its arse well and truly
bogged in the bight... ho hum... riveting stuff.
Dare I say it; however, could there be rain for Adelaide and greater SA on or around Australia Day?
things are looking a tad more pear shaped mid next week,
not before time either.
heat + moisture = ....er... cant remember how it goes.
oh yeah... heat + moisture + s.a. = SFA
oh well, might get some wet if we're lucky.
at least it will be a normal weekend for a change.
keep an eye on those advance models,
could be a tropical soaker.
Nup, no weather here, this is Radelaide, we do not do weather.
Every day is the same as the last.
Except when it’s not, then it’s the same as tomoroz.
Absolute soaker next week. I realise this far out accuracy is questionable; however, BOM has us at a 30% chance of 0.4mm!
ACCESS looking pretty damn nice on the latest run.
Cross your fingers, and toes
good to see you here ricky, welcome.
can you put your location in your profile please.
yes access is looking good and so is gfs and ec.
they vary a little on timings, amounts and locations
which is normal even right up to the day but the
general consensus overall is that the shit starts to
hit the fan around monday and follows up to thursday.
its not just the amounts of moisture that have me drooling, its the
amount of heat that hangs around.
the extreme at the moment is GFS with 22° DPs and 30° temps
next thurs arvo here and out in the mallee 26° DPs and 34° temps.
that's hardcore troppo. cant get too excited,
still a long way out, things can go pear shaped real quick.
at least its something to talk about.
also interesting to note is BOMs short forecast for monday is
cloudy 30° and tuesday mostly sunny 24°.
somewhat conservative to say the least.
Check out some of the air pressures progged in models. On the low side very low. All about were it tracks now like taking a jack russell for a walk without a lead when there are rabbits about.
Which equals zero chance.
When we see 90% chance we are in with a sniff.