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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by StormCapture, Jul 5, 2019.
2mm ice on bird bath this morning at Exeter.
Hullo, I'm Miles Peachfield (Unstable on Weatherzone), author of the website South Australian Snow http://sasnows.com
The weather system currently traversing southern South Australia does have some potential for getting snowflakes to tiny areas of land in southern South Australia. The first image below is the gfs snow level chart I saved on Saturday evening (yesterday 17th) for 930pm central standard time Sunday 18th today. It does suggest possible snow showers (or mixed salad showers including snowflakes) on the highest ground including (and perhaps confined to) the peaks and vicinity of Mt Lofty in the south and Mt Bryan in the Mid-North. I couldn't find any reference to snow in the Weather Bureau's forecasts issued yesterday evening when I checked them last night, nor could I find any snow pixel in SA on MetEye when I checked early this morning. And as usual, an unknown is whether we get suitable passing snowflake-making shower clouds. The second image below is the gfs mean sea level pressure chart for 930pm Sunday (as it was on Saturday night when I saved the image).
It's like we don't exist
They gave us a sheep graziers warning as a consolation
I also observed last weekend they only forecast the potential for snow on lofty at very last minute when the gurus on here knew a week in advance.
Post your charts on the 'predictions' thread, the guys on there will give it some interest. They will also be keen to hear from a weatherzone guy and a South Australian snow expert
+1 reports having a lovely time in the garden at Exeter then being slammed with a quick but intense hail storm. You can see the hail in the pic.
Was only 1.3 at 4pm on mount lofty with good precipitation.
Was anyone up there then?
On a Sunday a bunch of folks but not me.
There used to be a webcam there, is it still a thing?
10 1/2 mls of rain to this am at Exeter.
Garden needed it.
Thanks for commenting Adelaidometer and I'll take up your suggestion to post charts on the predictions thread next time. I haven't even explored the ski forums so far - simply plonked my first post here
There were some people there, and there were a few fairly brief snow showers towards the end of hail showers. The snowflakes apparently melted quickly but hail falling mostly earlier in the afternoon formed a continuous carpet on the ground.
No such luck - wish there was!
Some one needs to blow into a pollies ear.
There also used to be a fairly large digital sign displaying the current temperature facing out the window of the tourist shop
I don't know if it's still there but from memory, in the key temperature range of three to zero degrees it red about 3 degrees higher than the actual air temperature. A Bureau-quality thermometer positioned on the summit and accurate to within a tenth of a degree is what's needed, attached to said "fairly large digital sign displaying the current temperature facing out the window of the tourist shop"
I imagine that the Royal Adelaide Show visitors would have appreciated the lovely often sunny 22 degree max day yesterday, the last calendar day of winter. It may have been the "warmest" day of this winter. But as midnight approached and along with it the start of the first day of calendar spring, I notice that the Bureau found it necessary to update their forecast for Adelaide:
"Forecast updated at 10:14 pm CST on Saturday 31 August 2019."
I don't know what was the cause of this update as I didn't look at the forecast beforehand, but a rain band passed over Adelaide in the first hour of spring, shown below in the Bureau's 256 radar image for 36 minutes after midnight. At the Adelaide AWS not far from the showground there was no rain to 9pm Saturday and 5 mm by 400am today Sunday. Some showers and rain come with the territory for the Adelaide show, given it's held at the start of spring Fortunately for show goers both visitors and participants the Bureau is not forecasting any big rain and gale weather for Adelaide this week. Dates this year for the show are Friday 30 August to Sunday 8 September.
5 & 1/2 mls in the gauge at Exeter this am.
Mount lofty forecast getting down to 3 degrees this Saturday with some precipitation.
Any chance of it getting a little colder and more precipitous for you know what?
I haven't looked at next Saturday's computer-generated forecast yet, but here's a general comment that may answer your question The temperature on Mt Lofty can drop down to below three degrees and even below one degree on winter and spring nights when there is little wind and a clear sky. The kind of nights where there are frosts on frost-prone areas of the Adelaide Hills. One of the weather situations where this can happen is when a cold air mass from deep in the Southern Ocean comes north over southern South Australia, such as we experienced on last Sunday, and then moves east taking the showers with it and leaving clear skies and light winds on the following night(s) which are often approximately from the south or south-east. If more showers are coming it usually means a less cold air mass is coming and bringing the showers.
Access and EC and Gfs computer models are now predicting a cutoff low will be influencing our weather later this week. Below is the current Bureau of Meteorology's Access model prediction for 930am Friday 6th. Early days but if accurate the Royal Adelaide show may be in for a windy period with some showers maybe late Thursday-Friday?
But no snow?
I haven't seen any reason to think it may snow, and we may find by Wednesday or early Thursday that the models have the low tracking considerably further east than the gfs prediction above shows. Now if the low were to come right over the Adelaide Hills, that would be more encouraging
2 & 1/2 mls at Exeter this am.
This Friday 6th is looking very interesting from a weather perspective for a substantial area of South Australia likely to be affected by a cutoff low to our south-eastwards (including the Adelaide Show). The Bureau forecast below for Adelaide was current at 1135am Wednesday 4th September 2019 when I saved this text (I've left out short bits of their complete text not relevant to the forecast and meaning):
Forecast issued at 5:20 am CST on Wednesday 4 September 2019.
Friday 6 September
Summary Min 9 Max 14 Showers. Windy. Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 95%
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible about the hills. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the day then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.
I notice the Bureau has issued its latest ENSO wrap-up here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ It includes the following text:
Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
3 September 2019 Next issue17 September 2019
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole persists as ENSO remains neutral
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to be the main influence on Australian climate. (end of text quotes).
I don't have time this morning to look up earlier wrap-ups for this year but is my memory correct in thinking that a continuation of El Nino during spring 2019 was favoured until recently? If so then it seems we may be spared from that boring and unwanted eventuality (my view of El Nino anyway)
Which all means?
The Bureau has issued the video on this page http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/video
giving a brief and simple description of what it may mean. Colored maps show how different parts of Australia may be affected. The Bureau knows and we know from past experience that what is forecast as likely to or may happen may not be what actually eventuates in the forecast period.
5 mls in the gauge this am at Exeter.
At 250pm the temperature at the Mt Lofty aws was "Mount Lofty 06/02:50pm 6.0", way too "warm" for snow. It's not that the air mass didn't start its journey over the southern ocean cold enough, but it's coming so fast that the friction between the air molecules is heating it up by several degrees before it gets here!
But to do this it must be slowing down. Conservation of energy.
Yes I agree that friction between the air molecules does act to slow it down but as with a cyclone, the forces that drive the continuing rotation of low pressure systems are overwhelmingly stronger and they are the key drivers of the rotation of the air mass and hence the windspeed. They are the forces that keep our lows and tropical cyclones rotating despite the friction between molecules.
1 &1/2 mls in the gauge this am at Exeter.
The Exeter report is 30 deg under the back veranda yesterday (there’s a max / min thermometer there) but cooler now it’s pissing with rain.
Loving the rain this evening. I was sceptical about the forecast
I was sceptical as to the amount we would get but it’s been raining steadily for a number of hours now.
Last weekend was a bit too warm for me so I’ll enjoy the weather in the teens while I still can
14 & 1/2 mls in the gauge at Exeter this morning.
4 mls in the gauge at Exeter this morning.
19.8mm for me from Fri morning until Mon morning.
Nice but we still need more to get even close to average for the year
There is some serious heat forecast in the next few days for inland South Australia. By that I mean approaching record early October temps. Oak Valley, an Indigenous community north west of Marilinga has a forecast max of 43c on Saturday. Only 250klm from the coast, so serious heat this early in the season.