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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.
Well it might have been a month ago, but in ski.com land it's today.
+ve Indian Ocean Dipole is in full swing. Dry, dry, dry.
Some moisture for the Southern States this weekend. Just need some instability to light the fuse.
Discussed in the NSW D2D WX thread, there's some signs in the models we may see some TS activity Saturday/Sunday through SA/Vic & NSW respectively.
Tasmania in for a surprise next Monday night/Tuesday.
Snow above 900m in the South and a good drop at that - 10-15cm above that ele is possible.
Looking far more meridinal on GFS Long Range this morning as we see the AAO really lock in that double dip, neg signal.
Looking like our first real signs of the SSW event, being ‘modelled’ near the lower trop, in our region.
Some interesting Neg Pressure Anomaly plots on EC ERA Interim for the 13th- 15th.
Bump up of cold air on EC this arvo on 00z.
Still a clipper with 5 or so cents, IMO.
Interesting neg zonal pattern interacting with a ULL at the end of next week for the Eastern Seaboard. We could see another East Coast rain event with fickle low-snow on the GDR again.
Just highlighting the importance of the extratropical circulation and torques from a longitudinal perspective :
Tues -Sat is looking remarkably promising for PV on yr.no....
Should be SFA crowds and some reasonable snow quality with the chance of an odd dusting.
Bugger we leave Mon.
Meandering cold pool next week looking more interesting today on EC. Just the right interaction between onshore flow and polar uppers.
We could see 10cm on the Main Range , at the end of next IMO.
I am taking the rock hoppers up to Mt Baw Baw on Wed. It should be fun!.
Decent system on Tuesday:
About 5-10cm there. Plenty of cold.
Then there’s the aforementioned Saturday.
Plenty of precip and somewhat cold air.
But EC will play around with the precip event over the next few days.
16C max at Perisher today. Spencer's Creek & The Snowy must be experiencing torrential flows.
Not sure if this is a weather question but what's the reason for the current haze over jindy/main range?
Another dust storm maybe, it's been windy.
Yeah, I'd say dust. SW Slopes had dust in the forecast yesterday, and stations cracked 25-30 knot gusts, so probably residual dust.
GFS (00z) Determ checking-in this arvo with a nice anom 17/18th Oct. Hypothetically, a Tas special.
Questionably only progged with bottoming-out -AAO prospect around mid-Oct.
IMO it's got plenty of reasons to fade away, yet.
OK, should I believe the BOM forecast for Jindy tomoroz that says 90% chance of rain (has not rained all winter why start now?) and stay home or disbelieve it and go BC?
Mostly moisture (and a little pollen and such) in the air was my assessment while out and about today (only on the bitumen). No real evidence of dust was the air.
Spencers was if anything a little down on flow today compared to yesterday. Pretty normal looking flow for this time of year.
The Snowy was only just over the crossing rocks at the Snowy & Club Creek junction, so a highish flow but nothing really special.
Downstream of the Guthega Dam is a different story with the flow boosted by spillway flow. See separate thread in the Perisher (there is no Guthega Forum) Forum. Normally flow from this dam is via the power station feed pipe so it's unusual to have much flow here.
This one swings in SW and finishes with some southerly, straight down the TV. One way or another, I’d say it’s in the bag for Jindy. Only maybe 5-10mm...
Ta. I think...,didn’t really want a home day tomoroz. Will wait for the lookout window in the morning.
Here is it looks from home just now...... the snow at the lower right hand end of the pic is looking to PV..,..
Some love for Bawbs this morning:
Did they share that on PSR (saw it on a private page)
Currently hailing in Jindy
I'm not on PSR...
No idea what page it was from? Snowsearch maybe? it popped up on a few of mine
Graupel/sleet dusting on Thredbo Basin Cam.
Basin T-bar intermittently spinning, I assume they're removing bars/springbox.
Light fluffy snow falling North Perisher
Snowing at Hotham and Falls
Unusual sight of snow falling and good visibility at the same time at P.
Couple of pics taken at PV (pics also in the Perisher thread).
Snow fell on and off since about 10:00 am but came in proper behind this cloud..... circa 11:30.
When it started falling it was building quickly. At that stage snow to about Smiggin Holes. Also enough weather to close the triple chair.
Looking ominous at Moonbah and quite cold. Plus a bit of thunder.
Lovely rain at 2628
And a little slow release rain to start with
Black spur closed according to vicroads app - snow on the road.
HUGE flakes on the high noon cam
Hi weather experts, could you please help with your input.
I'm looking at houng out BC at charlottes on the WE.
It was originally looking ok, but now auto forecast on Jane's and yr. No say rain Fri to Sat.
Could you please comment on weather in the MR for this weekend.
Thanks for your help and great knowledge.
I think at this stage Sunday looks the goods. But my view will be subject to review daily.
Left Perisher a bit past oneish I think after all lifts closed on lightening hold (meaning closed for the day) and the Mitchel was fired up. One run was enough with the crowd that was now jambed on it.
Key data is it was snowing heavily down to below Ski Rider on the way home, somewhere about 1450M.
Friday/Saturday is looking like variable conditions in the MR. Snow, rain, chance of some sun; the whole shooting match.
Under the influence of anomalous; Easterly winds.
Sunday looks ok, but cloud cover & fog may hamper efforts.
It's a tricky window.
So not so great, ok
Thanks for the reply.
EC Long Range looks to have a particularly keen eye for a wintery burst in the South East, 17-19OCT.
Even Ensembles likes it.