Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Officially Spring.
    Well it might have been a month ago, but in ski.com land it's today.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  3. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    +ve Indian Ocean Dipole is in full swing. Dry, dry, dry.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some moisture for the Southern States this weekend. Just need some instability to light the fuse.
    Discussed in the NSW D2D WX thread, there's some signs in the models we may see some TS activity Saturday/Sunday through SA/Vic & NSW respectively.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #trending
    Tasmania in for a surprise next Monday night/Tuesday.
    Snow above 900m in the South and a good drop at that - 10-15cm above that ele is possible.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking far more meridinal on GFS Long Range this morning as we see the AAO really lock in that double dip, neg signal.
    Looking like our first real signs of the SSW event, being ‘modelled’ near the lower trop, in our region.


     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warming up
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some interesting Neg Pressure Anomaly plots on EC ERA Interim for the 13th- 15th.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bump up of cold air on EC this arvo on 00z.
    Still a clipper with 5 or so cents, IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting neg zonal pattern interacting with a ULL at the end of next week for the Eastern Seaboard. We could see another East Coast rain event with fickle low-snow on the GDR again.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just highlighting the importance of the extratropical circulation and torques from a longitudinal perspective :

     
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  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tues -Sat is looking remarkably promising for PV on yr.no....
    Should be SFA crowds and some reasonable snow quality with the chance of an odd dusting.
    Bugger we leave Mon.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meandering cold pool next week looking more interesting today on EC. Just the right interaction between onshore flow and polar uppers.
    We could see 10cm on the Main Range , at the end of next IMO.
     
  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Decent system on Tuesday:

    About 5-10cm there. Plenty of cold.

    Then there’s the aforementioned Saturday.
    Plenty of precip and somewhat cold air.
    But EC will play around with the precip event over the next few days.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cooked dog

     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    16C max at Perisher today. Spencer's Creek & The Snowy must be experiencing torrential flows.
     
  20. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure if this is a weather question but what's the reason for the current haze over jindy/main range?
     
  21. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Another dust storm maybe, it's been windy.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I'd say dust. SW Slopes had dust in the forecast yesterday, and stations cracked 25-30 knot gusts, so probably residual dust.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS (00z) Determ checking-in this arvo with a nice anom 17/18th Oct. Hypothetically, a Tas special.

    Questionably only progged with bottoming-out -AAO prospect around mid-Oct.
    IMO it's got plenty of reasons to fade away, yet.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK, should I believe the BOM forecast for Jindy tomoroz that says 90% chance of rain (has not rained all winter why start now?) and stay home or disbelieve it and go BC?
     
  25. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mostly moisture (and a little pollen and such) in the air was my assessment while out and about today (only on the bitumen). No real evidence of dust was the air.
     
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  26. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spencers was if anything a little down on flow today compared to yesterday. Pretty normal looking flow for this time of year.

    The Snowy was only just over the crossing rocks at the Snowy & Club Creek junction, so a highish flow but nothing really special.

    Downstream of the Guthega Dam is a different story with the flow boosted by spillway flow. See separate thread in the Perisher (there is no Guthega Forum) Forum. Normally flow from this dam is via the power station feed pipe so it's unusual to have much flow here.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one swings in SW and finishes with some southerly, straight down the TV. One way or another, I’d say it’s in the bag for Jindy. Only maybe 5-10mm...
     
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  28. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ta. I think...,didn’t really want a home day tomoroz. Will wait for the lookout window in the morning.
     
  29. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here is it looks from home just now...... the snow at the lower right hand end of the pic is looking to PV..,..

     
  30. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some love for Bawbs this morning:

     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did they share that on PSR (saw it on a private page)
     
  33. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Currently hailing in Jindy
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not on PSR...
    No idea what page it was from? Snowsearch maybe? it popped up on a few of mine
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Graupel/sleet dusting on Thredbo Basin Cam.

    Basin T-bar intermittently spinning, I assume they're removing bars/springbox.
     
  36. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Light fluffy snow falling North Perisher
     

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  37. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can confirm.
     
  38. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing at Hotham and Falls
     
  39. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us

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    Unusual sight of snow falling and good visibility at the same time at P.





     

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  40. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Couple of pics taken at PV (pics also in the Perisher thread).

    Snow fell on and off since about 10:00 am but came in proper behind this cloud..... circa 11:30.

    When it started falling it was building quickly. At that stage snow to about Smiggin Holes. Also enough weather to close the triple chair.

    Looking ominous at Moonbah and quite cold. Plus a bit of thunder.


     
  41. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lovely rain at 2628


    And a little slow release rain to start with
     
  42. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Black spur closed according to vicroads app - snow on the road.
     
  43. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    HUGE flakes on the high noon cam
     
  44. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Hi weather experts, could you please help with your input.

    I'm looking at houng out BC at charlottes on the WE.
    It was originally looking ok, but now auto forecast on Jane's and yr. No say rain Fri to Sat.

    Could you please comment on weather in the MR for this weekend.
    Thanks for your help and great knowledge.
     
  45. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think at this stage Sunday looks the goods. But my view will be subject to review daily.
     
  46. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Left Perisher a bit past oneish I think after all lifts closed on lightening hold (meaning closed for the day) and the Mitchel was fired up. One run was enough with the crowd that was now jambed on it.

    Key data is it was snowing heavily down to below Ski Rider on the way home, somewhere about 1450M.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday/Saturday is looking like variable conditions in the MR. Snow, rain, chance of some sun; the whole shooting match.
    Under the influence of anomalous; Easterly winds.

    Sunday looks ok, but cloud cover & fog may hamper efforts.
    It's a tricky window.
     
  48. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    So not so great, ok
    Thanks for the reply.
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Long Range looks to have a particularly keen eye for a wintery burst in the South East, 17-19OCT.
    Even Ensembles likes it.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS Control
     
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