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Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

  1. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    There 1 day gone the next, some coldish weather for the NSW long weekend but not looking so extreme. Will be monitoring daily runs..
     
  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Anyone with a chance to utilise the new snow forecasted upto end of the month should.

    The precip ec moisture forecast for the follow 6 weeks is a big up tick from what has been over the past month.












    la-nina bite look.
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The most recent BOM ENSO forecast showed a substantial uptick in this La Nina's depth. Could easily strengthen more.
     
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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Not hard to see the timing of the connection matching up.
     
  5. Val Desire

    Val Desire Addicted

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    Any thoughts on coming week & long weekend weather? I see rain and warm temps on BOM forecast for mid-week at Perisher, but wondered what the system is like that's set to cause this.... trying to decide how much of the 40cm just fallen will last until next Thurs - Sun!
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mid-next week we've got a NW trough feeding into a (Sou-West WA-peaking) shortwave.
    It's drawn in through South Aus and into the Westerly flow so looking likely to be a rain event for the South East. Perhaps some snow above 2000m on the Main Range, but nada snow for the resorts.

    It's been there for a number of days now so variability in the models is only really with the amount of rainfall.
     
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  7. Val Desire

    Val Desire Addicted

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    Thanks for that.
    Sounds like soggy skiing conditions allright.... :cry:, & a rapid return to Sprummer.
     
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  8. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    3 years ago today. No rain and hairdryer combos then apparently

    IMG-20200926-WA0006.jpg IMG-20200926-WA0007.jpg
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice little Spring system appearing on Long Range EC Determs for 5th Oct.
    Ensembles put a line through it but determs have some trend IMO.
     
  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow on the Badja

     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Won't make much difference to the resorts with Perisher due to pull the curtains on the 4th anyway, but this LR outlook on EC is bad news for the corn harvest. Plenty of wriggle room but looks like a wash out IMO.
    NE trough sliding SE.
    Possibly our first big La Nina rain event?
     
  12. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I don’t want to like this cause washouts are sad, but damn some good rain for people who need it is super important
     
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  13. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    How much rainfall in the wheatbelt in Vic/SA with that setup??
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A widespread 20-50mm is showing as a possibility on EC.
     
  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    GFS accumulation thinking.
     
  16. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like but (as a skier)don't like, awesome graphic.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The big thing here for Vic (and to a less extent SA) any shortwave frontal interaction will hypothetically result in the broadening of a low (over Vic) - which is kinda what GFS is suggesting - drawing out the duration and substantially increasing rainfall figures.
     
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  18. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    12z GFS looks downright mid-winter for Oct 6-9.

    Could see some very cold temps for October in parts of Vic and SA. Big La-Ninaesque trough on Oct 5 though.
     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Has the typical MT over NT look. With alot of cool air pushing in behind it over the interior. looks a stormy setup where the mass of cooler air will meet the warmer tropical air on the plots.
    (Sparkie)
     
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  20. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those PWVs are insane for this time of year (for Vicco).

    Although it is GFS, if metro Melbs copped that amount of rain, we be canoeing down Flinders Street, like back in the 70's!!!
     
  21. David-eTO

    David-eTO Early Days

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    Good day all,

    it's probably the last time we see snow on the hills around Canberra but it is a sight that never bores me and never will.
     

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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC run was not shabby either.
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im helping running a country market in Gippsland on October 10th , ive already given them a heads up on the week prior , great work. After this year they are also wondering if your gurus could give a forecast on frog plagues as well .
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC going for a bombing low (SE Tas) off the back of the NW MT incursion.
     
  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yep, probably looking at 25-60mm here early next week. Some rather cold air afterwards too.
     
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  28. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    29C for N/E Victoria on Sunday 4 October.
    If that doesn't melt all the recent snow around here nothing will.
    Followed by rain.
    Bring on Summer.
     
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  29. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi SK, Can you please explain the metric used with this one - not sure how the ‘anomaly’ is measure.
    Cheers.
     
  30. The Bluff

    The Bluff One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    unrelated question
    Is there evidence that overnight temps. in the mountains are increasing ( on average)?
    Thanks
     
  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    In a nutshell 1 standard deviation from the mean not that unusual of an event 3 or 4 is considered a very unusual event. Looking @ anomalies helps you put an event into context more easily.The main advantage to using standard deviations is that it places everyone on the same playing field in terms of anomalies.
     
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  32. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I did some analysis of Hotham's temps last year based on the BOM data, for the life of me I can't find it now however will keep looking, but the raw data showed temps were actually decreasing - which I didn't expect. The data of course was for only Hotham and also sketchy as large chunks were missing. If I find it again I'll post it
     
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  34. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    saw the BOM long range thing on Landline, looked like the alps will get warmer nights, and milder days for spring (off average).
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only ‘rarely seen’ if you’re not looking often...
    Common place in a sat image. ABC needs to get out more often.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS super long range going for one more beast from the East?
    It’s 2020, why the heck not...
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was on my phone at lunch.
    At work.
    At "Guillo's" front n centre looking north. :cool:
    C'mon .
    ;):)
     
  38. Noah

    Noah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    How early is the rain supposed to hit perisher tomorrow? Contemplating whether to go up or head to part two of holiday early (depot beach).
     
  39. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Goes like this , back in the daze of olde ....
     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Good to see they pulled the trigger.

     
  43. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Its what I told my wife , the Yarrawonga radar is out , walk outside and hold your hand out.
     
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  44. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Trump said it would get cooler.
     
  45. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Yarrawonga, Wagga Wagga and Bairnsdale are out.
     
  46. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Just use the Melbourne radar. Close enough.
     
  47. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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  48. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trump also said this about Covid-19 "It’s going to disappear. One day – it’s like a miracle – it will disappear" on the 26th Feb.

    I would rather listen to experts in their field (IE climatologists) than someone who is not. And as we know, a changing climate means different impacts for different parts of our fine country.
     
  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just a test post.
     
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  50. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The weather held off at the resort this morning till around 11:30 am. A little bit of sago initially at circa 2000 ASL but then moist - I left PV once it set in. Not anywhere near the forecasted totals, temps cooler than forecast and no wind to speak of at the top of Mount Perisher. (up till when I left circa 11:30).