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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.
It would be nice to have a year of La Normal for a change !
That still relies on the BOM's radar stations. Eastern Vic is basically invisible there right now.
I observe weather. Now that the summer wax is on the skis (wow that went quickly), it's very relaxing listening to the rain. 15mm in my gauge at DP today and coming down hard
P.s. No roads like the Hotham road in nsw
You could almost see the remnant snow vanishing on the live cameras this afternoon, I'd expect the weekends' system to finish it off in NSW resorts as well.
Heavy rain in the forecast for Gippsland next Wednesday
Thanks I get the deviation bit , from what though ? Eg I assume average precip that would normally fall in the elapsed time frame ? Down to hourly ?
I assume it's total precipitable water, rather than rainfall.
Looks like the Northeast for GFS, Gippsland blocked by the dividing range.
On the ACCESS model it's much the same story
「The total precipitable water is that contained in a column of unit cross section extending all of the way from the earth's surface to the "top" of the atmosphere. ... In actual rainstorms, particularly thunderstorms, amounts of rain very often exceed the total precipitable water vapor of the overlying atmosphere. This results from the action of convergence that brings into the rainstorm the water vapor from a surrounding area that is often quite large. Nevertheless, there is general correlation between precipitation amounts in given storms and the precipitable water vapor of the air masses involved in those storms.」
aah thanks !
Any further thoughts on this one @POW_hungry?
We'll be down not long after.
Could be a little snow from the backend of the system forecast to come through on the 12th.
Looking very wet, then some snow in the days after.
Feels like summer at hoth, it's great
Hey guys, can someone crystal ball the weekend of the 17th Oct. Specifically central tablelands NSW.
All I'm interested in is cloudy/wet/dry. Indications for planning.
GFS thinks dry.
Sorry, I’ve been BC. Will take a proper look tomorrow.
Thanks Pow. We'll be there from 15th-18th, not expecting to be doing anything too snow-focused but it would be a nice little bonus if some were to fall.
Max temp today 18.0C in Perisher BOM AWS gauge. Thats pretty warm, winds up to 69kmh as well, no wonder the snow is disappearing so quickly. Lots of rain in the forecast too, 25-50mm tomorrow. That will accelerate the loss in the backcountry
Can't say I have any great news for you @Swiss
There's a weakening long wave trough through our region around the 15th, but that's likely to draw in a lot of tropical moisture, thanks to an enhanced MJO signal over the next 7-10 days, in our region.
Can't see much hope of snowfall at this stage but there's a slim chance on the 16/17th. Fair chance of some good convection, with ~5% chance of snow in your date range IMO.
Hiking boots for the backcountry now, I expect the next measurement at Spencers Creek to be Zero.
Not today..... it’s fading quick though as you say and maybe post the upcoming rain event - but there’s still a little there in the sampling area. Pic from this morning just a bit higher and a little to the South.....Also depends when they measure... last week it was early.
A little bit of what looked like cloud iridescence today.......pics don’t show it up too well though.
May not technically be a Southerly Buster.
Certainly feels like one.
I will check it later.
But will do for now .....
Bit wetter on Wednesday continuing into Thursday. Thinks OCF.
rip from facey
Kelvin Heimholz IIRC .
" Surf was up this morning near Rylstone , Central West NSW "
could have shared it in the surf thread.
same physics as wave hitting a bommie / reef and heaving.
Volunteers are vital to our climate records — some have been recording rainfall for more than 100 years
heavy rain and strong gusts over night at Hotham has transitioned to icy hail stuff in the past hour
Interesting, wouldn't have picked that from the temperatures.
me neither... definitely has a n icy rattle sound as it hits the roof and little chunks of ice running down the window
Slow sleet buildup on the window
Sleety wintery mix/mess at the Top of Thredbo this AM. Looks like 3-5cm of new snow up high.
70mm in the Jig since Sunday. Deli will be flowing well.
....and kiddoes getting cold at the beach and asking why it's so cold...light offshore breeze... air is clear as though.
@Adaminaby Angler or anyone else. Heading to Coleman Mountain Campground for the night.
Worried about the wind?
Wind has been increasing notably here since the morning (gusting mid 40s), and at least from my view, there is substantial swaying among the trees up high. Although I can't really say for Cooleman, apart from the Mt. Ginini obs…which aren't looking favourable RE wind at all (gusting 50–60, up to 67).
EC weeklies were thinking it will-be wet over the south and southeast over the next 2 weeks.
Over the next 6 weeks the ens modeling. Most of our continent is seen as wet in the forecast.
Supported by a growing Coral Sea MJO signal. At least for most global models.
Thanks! Ran out of reception prior to this response. It was fine. Died off at dusk. And actually Cooleman Mountain Campground was probably the better of the grounds up there, less exposed.
GFS ext ens control liking a decent anom in just over a fortnights time. Rain Game.
Doesn’t look too dissimilar to last weeks event.
Yeah indeed should add some interest around that date if it comes to fruition.
MJO in 2010/11 pretty much kept putting the brakes on and stalling over the maritime.Not going across the pacific.Something to look out for from herein maybe. We may see a similar pattern this year with the mjo as in 2010/11.
Looks like a lack of wave activity recently.
2019 QBO anomaly still making itself known?
EC going for a big polar low through SW WA in the long range (23rd 00z run). That's a decent one-run anom alright.
Ensembles showing that WA anomaly migrating and peaking East.
Chance of a wintery system for the SE on/around the 25th October, if it hangs about.