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Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

  1. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It would be nice to have a year of La Normal for a change !
     
  2. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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  3. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I observe weather. Now that the summer wax is on the skis (wow that went quickly), it's very relaxing listening to the rain. 15mm in my gauge at DP today and coming down hard

    P.s. No roads like the Hotham road in nsw

     
  4. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    You could almost see the remnant snow vanishing on the live cameras this afternoon, I'd expect the weekends' system to finish it off in NSW resorts as well.
     
  5. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heavy rain in the forecast for Gippsland next Wednesday
     
  6. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks I get the deviation bit , from what though ? Eg I assume average precip that would normally fall in the elapsed time frame ? Down to hourly ?
     
  7. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    I assume it's total precipitable water, rather than rainfall.
     
  8. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Looks like the Northeast for GFS, Gippsland blocked by the dividing range.




    On the ACCESS model it's much the same story
     
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  9. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Precipitable_water
    「The total precipitable water is that contained in a column of unit cross section extending all of the way from the earth's surface to the "top" of the atmosphere. ... In actual rainstorms, particularly thunderstorms, amounts of rain very often exceed the total precipitable water vapor of the overlying atmosphere. This results from the action of convergence that brings into the rainstorm the water vapor from a surrounding area that is often quite large. Nevertheless, there is general correlation between precipitation amounts in given storms and the precipitable water vapor of the air masses involved in those storms.」
     
  10. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    aah thanks !
     
  11. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any further thoughts on this one @POW_hungry?

    We'll be down not long after.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be a little snow from the backend of the system forecast to come through on the 12th.
    Looking very wet, then some snow in the days after.
     
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  13. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feels like summer at hoth, it's great
     
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  14. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hey guys, can someone crystal ball the weekend of the 17th Oct. Specifically central tablelands NSW.

    All I'm interested in is cloudy/wet/dry. Indications for planning.
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS thinks dry.
     
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  16. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks JB.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, I’ve been BC. Will take a proper look tomorrow.
     
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  18. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks Pow. We'll be there from 15th-18th, not expecting to be doing anything too snow-focused but it would be a nice little bonus if some were to fall.
     
  19. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Max temp today 18.0C in Perisher BOM AWS gauge. Thats pretty warm, winds up to 69kmh as well, no wonder the snow is disappearing so quickly. Lots of rain in the forecast too, 25-50mm tomorrow. That will accelerate the loss in the backcountry:eek:
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't say I have any great news for you @Swiss
    There's a weakening long wave trough through our region around the 15th, but that's likely to draw in a lot of tropical moisture, thanks to an enhanced MJO signal over the next 7-10 days, in our region.
    Can't see much hope of snowfall at this stage but there's a slim chance on the 16/17th. Fair chance of some good convection, with ~5% chance of snow in your date range IMO.
     
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  21. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Hiking boots for the backcountry now, I expect the next measurement at Spencers Creek to be Zero.
     
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  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not today..... it’s fading quick though as you say and maybe post the upcoming rain event - but there’s still a little there in the sampling area. Pic from this morning just a bit higher and a little to the South.....Also depends when they measure... last week it was early.

     
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  23. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little bit of what looked like cloud iridescence today.......pics don’t show it up too well though.



     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    May not technically be a Southerly Buster.
    Certainly feels like one.
    I will check it later.
    But will do for now .....
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bit wetter on Wednesday continuing into Thursday. Thinks OCF.
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    rip from facey
    Kelvin Heimholz IIRC .
    " Surf was up this morning near Rylstone , Central West NSW "
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Amazing shot
     
  30. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah.
    could have shared it in the surf thread.
    same physics as wave hitting a bommie / reef and heaving.
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool pic:thumbs:
     
  33. coldsmoker

    coldsmoker Addicted

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    heavy rain and strong gusts over night at Hotham has transitioned to icy hail stuff in the past hour
     
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  34. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Interesting, wouldn't have picked that from the temperatures.
     
  35. coldsmoker

    coldsmoker Addicted

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    me neither... definitely has a n icy rattle sound as it hits the roof and little chunks of ice running down the window
     
  36. coldsmoker

    coldsmoker Addicted

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    Slow sleet buildup on the window
     

    Attached Files:

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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sleety wintery mix/mess at the Top of Thredbo this AM. Looks like 3-5cm of new snow up high.
     
  38. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    70mm in the Jig since Sunday. Deli will be flowing well.
     
  39. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    Accumulating.


    ....and kiddoes getting cold at the beach and asking why it's so cold...light offshore breeze... air is clear as though.
     
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  40. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Adaminaby Angler or anyone else. Heading to Coleman Mountain Campground for the night.

    Worried about the wind?
     
  41. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Wind has been increasing notably here since the morning (gusting mid 40s), and at least from my view, there is substantial swaying among the trees up high. Although I can't really say for Cooleman, apart from the Mt. Ginini obs…which aren't looking favourable RE wind at all (gusting 50–60, up to 67).
     
  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC weeklies were thinking it will-be wet over the south and southeast over the next 2 weeks.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................
    Over the next 6 weeks the ens modeling. Most of our continent is seen as wet in the forecast.

    [​IMG]
     
    #542 stormkite2000, Oct 11, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2020
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Supported by a growing Coral Sea MJO signal. At least for most global models.
     
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  44. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks! Ran out of reception prior to this response. It was fine. Died off at dusk. And actually Cooleman Mountain Campground was probably the better of the grounds up there, less exposed.
     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    GFS ext ens control liking a decent anom in just over a fortnights time. Rain Game.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doesn’t look too dissimilar to last weeks event.
     
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  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah indeed should add some interest around that date if it comes to fruition.
     
  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    MJO in 2010/11 pretty much kept putting the brakes on and stalling over the maritime.Not going across the pacific.Something to look out for from herein maybe. We may see a similar pattern this year with the mjo as in 2010/11.
     
    #548 stormkite2000, Oct 13, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2020
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting.
    Looks like a lack of wave activity recently.
    2019 QBO anomaly still making itself known?

    EC going for a big polar low through SW WA in the long range (23rd 00z run). That's a decent one-run anom alright.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles showing that WA anomaly migrating and peaking East.
    Chance of a wintery system for the SE on/around the 25th October, if it hangs about.
     
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