I don't know where you are located but if not seqld then come up here for a year and experience what we're apparently whining about.Personally where i live 94mm in nearly 5 mths just does'nt cut it.And also i have'nt had a chance to whine when its wet because i don't know what that's like yet
bahahahahahaha, that is gold, and so true! We always take note of what the ants, spiders and birds are doing!
Shaping up as a interesting season. MJO pattern is looking v/similar atm to 2010 now along with la nina conditions that are forecasted to persist during the full season. V-Velocity Moved to this thread. Looks like its just a matter of time before the switch will flicks to full on.
A little cell passed through the the mountains around 6 p.m. PV BOM up 3 mm and dropped temps almost 6 degrees in 30 mins. Plenty of wind and flash bang almost caused me to lose concentration having a beer at Jindabyne Brewery with @Billy Jack, @Annago @SalleeGirl.....
I like the pic, it's much the same down here on the coast now. But I like having a drink with friends even more .
Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Last Updated: 10.13.20 Valid: 10.14.20 - 10.27.20 The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been portrayed as relatively stationary over the Maritime Continent during the past week by the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. This lack of eastward propagation appears largely due to an uptick in equatorial Rossby wave activity over the Eastern Hemisphere that also resulted in Tropical Storms Linfa and Nangka forming over the South China Sea. RMM index forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF generally show a strengthening MJO over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) during Week-1 that moves over the West Pacific during Week-2 (Phase 6). This evolution occurs despite continued equatorial Rossby wave development forecast by both ensemble suites over the Eastern Hemisphere, evidenced by the highly active tropical cyclone (TC) formation forecast the next two weeks. In addition to the continued Rossby wave considerations, the La Nina background state has been suppressing convection east of the Maritime Continent since at least late boreal summer, leading to the potential for destructive interference should the MJO push eastward, further limiting forecast confidence moving forward. Some members in both the GEFS and ECMWF fail to maintain amplitude in Phases 6/7 and instead shift rapidly toward negative RMM1 values (MJO Phases 8/1), possibly tied to Kelvin wave activity forecast over the Atlantic during Week-2.
ERW been traversing over a pacific with mostly hostile sinking air. When does move over our nw tropics it will benefit from the rising air. Hence the roughly 24th post above. mjo forecast above precip above KW below. Forecast flow from north down though the south china sea meeting the westerlies over the equator. That's where a MT may form off nw.. Not alpine but spring oz. ER/ rossby/waves travel east to west. Kelvin/waves travel west to east. Leave @this and see how pans out.
Simply put in a nutshell over the next few weeks (2). The ec guidance is suggests it shall be wetter over south and east of the continent. Always worth noting the ec can have a lower end bias with precip.
Will be interest to how long nina conditions do actually last across the pacific. As a rule of thumb pretty much everyone knows the long range climate models re future enso modeling can usually be taken with grain of salt. That's quite a large reservoir of cold water out there. It will take quite a few consistent kelvin waves and alot of sloshing about over the pacfic before any warm changes will be seen. Other than tracking a anomalous very warm pool with the potential for a possible super elnino. I don't really have that much interest these days in enso.
Our water tank (140kl) full and trickling over, with more to come, bewdy ! Making up for two and and half years of not nearly enough.... and no bushfires in sight this time.
The insiders tip pretty much explains it The eps is the bench mark. Knowing the bias's strengths and weakness in each model is key. Don't take every thing posted on threads as completely accurate. The master run is the preferred forecast. However the control run on many many occasions has gotten the forecast correct with thickness over the mean runs in my experience over quite few years.
@Chowder11. FWIW I had a great season. 112 days locally on snow and now the farms getting good moisture with more on the way. Absolutely fabulous IMO. Alpine thread for any of the seasons is a “core” thread for those who live here plus plenty who don’t but with an interest in the mountains for one reason or another.
yep. must live in the city away from any bushfire threats . stays indoors only. works indoors. recreation indoors. holidays indoors no hiking , surfing , bbq , garden, lawns....
Given what we were dealt - it turned out to be a great season. Only missed a couple of DOTS - otherwise was there for all the slop, glug and pow. Meanwhile just invested in my first layer of vertical enhancer. But not too many - don't want to jinx it now by being too eager.
Mate, I 100% rely on these forums and the weather predictions in them. Love a good snow system, but weather goes all year round. Last year when we were under threat from bushfires, the good folk on this forum provided a valuable source of knowledge. And the support they gave me, and others affected, helped me and my family through an incredibly difficult time.
Someone might be dark on the season but snow above 2000m from Sunday PM onwards IMO. Whilst that doesn’t leave us a lot of vertical for us chumps to play with I wouldn’t be surprised if we see half a foot on the highest peaks by mid-neck week.
took awhile - but looks like your prediction a week or so ago is finally showing up in the forecasts. AAO could be favourable for an upgrade or two.
Yep, EC ensembles has stayed with it. Still on the money. Looks like another shot at the turn of the month too.
Just for interest’s sake, you can now get the GFS ensemble out to 35 days on Tropical Tidbits (this was yesterday):
with the way the AAO is trending you'd think a second front around the 1st might be quite the surprise
There's some divergence in that outlook too though. EC's something in between AXS & GFS ACCESS from a few days ago:
But alas the MJO has finely fired up (with a stronger signal than models had assumed) and we're starting to see things on the move now. It's been a good-coupla of months of dormancy/stagnation so it's good to see things shifting. EC has some interesting points to add to the MJO in the short-mid term.
https://www.kylemacritchie.com/meteorology/mjo.php MJO forecast is pretty much collapses into fizzer when moving across the pacific.
There was a huge increase in water mass over the continent in 2010/11. Along with the current mjo pattern sea level anom also has me thinking maybe 2010/2011. Its sorta join the dots atm.
This was my ENSO analog for the NH winter, works down here too: Bottom line is that it should be wet.
