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Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Gets a good nw moisture feed into it.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  3. vibe++

    vibe++ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    How many have had this Conversation.
     
  4. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    I don't know where you are located but if not seqld then come up here for a year and experience
    what we're apparently whining about.Personally where i live 94mm in nearly 5 mths just does'nt cut it.And also i
    have'nt had a chance to whine when its wet because i don't know what that's like yet:(
     
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  5. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    bahahahahahaha, that is gold, and so true! We always take note of what the ants, spiders and birds are doing!
     
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Have a little bit of patience.
     
  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Shaping up as a interesting season. MJO pattern is looking v/similar atm to 2010 now along with la nina conditions that are forecasted to persist during the full season.



    V-Velocity

    [​IMG]

    Moved to this thread.
    Looks like its just a matter of time before the switch will flicks to full on.
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's going to be a really interesting early summer. Any thoughts on how long it might persist?
     
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  9. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little cell passed through the the mountains around 6 p.m. PV BOM up 3 mm and dropped temps almost 6 degrees in 30 mins. Plenty of wind and flash bang almost caused me to lose concentration having a beer at Jindabyne Brewery with @Billy Jack, @Annago @SalleeGirl.....:rolleyes:

     
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  10. Ijay

    Ijay Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like the pic, it's much the same down here on the coast now.
    But I like having a drink with friends even more :redwine:.
     
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  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion
    Last Updated: 10.13.20 Valid: 10.14.20 - 10.27.20
    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been portrayed as relatively stationary over the Maritime Continent during the past week by the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. This lack of eastward propagation appears largely due to an uptick in equatorial Rossby wave activity over the Eastern Hemisphere that also resulted in Tropical Storms Linfa and Nangka forming over the South China Sea. RMM index forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF generally show a strengthening MJO over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) during Week-1 that moves over the West Pacific during Week-2 (Phase 6). This evolution occurs despite continued equatorial Rossby wave development forecast by both ensemble suites over the Eastern Hemisphere, evidenced by the highly active tropical cyclone (TC) formation forecast the next two weeks. In addition to the continued Rossby wave considerations, the La Nina background state has been suppressing convection east of the Maritime Continent since at least late boreal summer, leading to the potential for destructive interference should the MJO push eastward, further limiting forecast confidence moving forward. Some members in both the GEFS and ECMWF fail to maintain amplitude in Phases 6/7 and instead shift rapidly toward negative RMM1 values (MJO Phases 8/1), possibly tied to Kelvin wave activity forecast over the Atlantic during Week-2.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wouldn't the 'uptick in the equatorial RW' promote an Eastward propagation?
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thinking myself we may see a monsoon trough form to the NW roughly around the 24th+.
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ERW been traversing over a pacific with mostly hostile sinking air. When does move over our nw tropics it will benefit from the rising air. Hence the roughly 24th post above.







    mjo forecast above


    precip above

    KW below.



    Forecast flow from north down though the south china sea meeting the westerlies over the equator. That's where a MT may form off nw.. Not alpine but spring oz.

    ER/ rossby/waves travel east to west. Kelvin/waves travel west to east.


    Leave @this and see how pans out.
     
    #564 stormkite2000, Oct 16, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Simply put in a nutshell over the next few weeks (2). The ec guidance is suggests it shall be wetter over south and east of the continent.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Always worth noting the ec can have a lower end bias with precip.
     
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Will be interest to how long nina conditions do actually last across the pacific.

    As a rule of thumb pretty much everyone knows the long range climate models re future enso modeling can usually be taken with grain of salt.


    [​IMG]
    That's quite a large reservoir of cold water out there. It will take quite a few consistent kelvin waves and alot of sloshing about over the pacfic before any warm changes will be seen. Other than tracking a anomalous very warm pool with the potential for a possible super elnino. I don't really have that much interest these days in enso.
     
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  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    12z ec had a pineapple flavor.
     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z GFS.




    [​IMG]
    EPS.


    No need for a essay.
     
    #569 stormkite2000, Oct 19, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
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  20. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 wet tracks for the GF's.
     
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  21. Ijay

    Ijay Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Our water tank (140kl) full and trickling over, with more to come, bewdy !
    Making up for two and and half years of not nearly enough.... and no bushfires in sight this time.
     
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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The insiders tip pretty much explains it The eps is the bench mark. Knowing the bias's strengths and weakness in each model is key. Don't take every thing posted on threads as completely accurate. The master run is the preferred forecast. However the control run on many many occasions has gotten the forecast correct with thickness over the mean runs in my experience over quite few years.
     
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  23. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

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    #### Moderator's Note ####
    Post deleted
     
    #573 foxbat, Oct 20, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 21, 2020 at 11:11 AM
  24. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope this is sarcasm.
    If not a lot of people do............take your negative shit somewhere else
     
  25. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :thumbs: @Chowder11.

    FWIW I had a great season. 112 days locally on snow and now the farms getting good moisture with more on the way. Absolutely fabulous IMO.

    Alpine thread for any of the seasons is a “core” thread for those who live here plus plenty who don’t but with an interest in the mountains for one reason or another.
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep.
    must live in the city away from any bushfire threats .
    stays indoors only.
    works indoors.
    recreation indoors.
    holidays indoors
    no hiking , surfing , bbq , garden, lawns....
    :rolleyes:
     
  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Given what we were dealt - it turned out to be a great season. Only missed a couple of DOTS - otherwise was there for all the slop, glug and pow.

    Meanwhile just invested in my first layer of vertical enhancer. But not too many - don't want to jinx it now by being too eager.


     
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  28. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yeh a great season in Vic that's for sure
     
  29. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    Mate, I 100% rely on these forums and the weather predictions in them. Love a good snow system, but weather goes all year round. Last year when we were under threat from bushfires, the good folk on this forum provided a valuable source of knowledge. And the support they gave me, and others affected, helped me and my family through an incredibly difficult time.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone might be dark on the season but snow above 2000m from Sunday PM onwards IMO.

    Whilst that doesn’t leave us a lot of vertical for us chumps to play with I wouldn’t be surprised if we see half a foot on the highest peaks by mid-neck week.
     
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  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    took awhile - but looks like your prediction a week or so ago is finally showing up in the forecasts. AAO could be favourable for an upgrade or two.

    [​IMG]
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, EC ensembles has stayed with it.
    Still on the money.

    Looks like another shot at the turn of the month too.
    [​IMG]
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  34. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    Noice - camping in the High Country that weekend!
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Monday- Tuesday looking snowy up abaove 1800 metres
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just for interest’s sake, you can now get the GFS ensemble out to 35 days on Tropical Tidbits (this was yesterday):
     
  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    with the way the AAO is trending you'd think a second front around the 1st might be quite the surprise
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's some divergence in that outlook too though. EC's something in between AXS & GFS
    ACCESS from a few days ago:
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    But alas the MJO has finely fired up (with a stronger signal than models had assumed) and we're starting to see things on the move now. It's been a good-coupla of months of dormancy/stagnation so it's good to see things shifting.
    EC has some interesting points to add to the MJO in the short-mid term.
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon that has a +ve bias beyond 2 weeks.
     
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  42. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    well there goes the southern flank for that little fantasy of a winter redux.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    and I don't blame it with that long term MJO outlook.
    A flash in the pan?
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z this morning still showing some winter-love for the 30th/31st (Snowys region):
     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Pretty much its doing the nina thing collapsing after the maritime. In line atm with 2010/11.
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    There was a huge increase in water mass over the continent in 2010/11.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    Along with the current mjo pattern sea level anom also has me thinking maybe 2010/2011. Its sorta join the dots atm.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    This was my ENSO analog for the NH winter, works down here too:



    Bottom line is that it should be wet.
     
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