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Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

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  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The PDO barely affects Australian weather though.
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was referencing it in terms of the strength of the current La Nina and whether it turns into a major one like 2011/12.

    Meanwhile GFS on speed dial is looking interesting for early Nov - here is a link to a 15 day loop

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Clouds not often seen on the Jindy North Shore, boiling up beautifully after a day of absolutely sensational light.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @SMSkier Snowfall out of the Easterly flow Sunday - Just keeping to the 2020 theme.
    Why the heck not.
     
  6. Ijay

    Ijay Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    BoM for Thredbo looking keen this morning, snow following some serious rain.
    Better go easy on the rain or I'll need the 500 gram lures.
     
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  7. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    seriously another cold blast from the East?
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oui.
    Badja Hill an isolated chance of flurries/wintery mix on Sunday IMO.
     
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  9. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like round 1 (the wet stuff) has started to roll in a little earlier than expected.

    Looking WSW....



    And more to the West - pretty much straight towards PV.

     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So amazingly green there.
     
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC ens weeklies update for anyone interested. Plot2 control run.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  12. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Obs thread ? @POW_hungry[/QUOTE]

    For tassie maybe.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    Holy moly !
     
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  16. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Joisus.If that comes off we will be needing more boats
     
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  17. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    How do you get the EC link on those charts.
     
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]


    Ens forecast its wet north and to the southeast over the next two weeks.

    [​IMG]







    [​IMG]



    That's where i will leave it with this site. Happy i found another welcoming place i can post and call home.
     

    Attached Files:

  19. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What happened? Plenty on here enjoying the contributions.
     
  20. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    We got a dusting of snow overnight at Baw Baw. Is there any snow in the pipeline for November?. I skied on 30 cm of fresh powder at Baw Baw in Nov. 2019. It was great!.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    First week of Nov lining up.
    It's a weak signal on ensembles, but EC determs suggest 'come in spinner':
    [​IMG]
     
  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good.... will happily take the precipitation :thumbs:

    Meantime, looking SW a little cell has been pottering about from the border region.....Grosses Plain might be getting a few drops.





    This pic just taken. Wind is up a little with it along with some thunder.

     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trending well on 00z
     
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  24. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's Determs are only just starting to be supported by GFS so there's a reasonable chance of snow in the Alpine end of next week.
    IMO, it's 50/50 at this stage.
     
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  26. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wettest day in a week of dampness, a little cracking rumble, a little small hail, a lot of good steady rain.

    Jindy North Shore.
     
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  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trending support on GFS this morning.
    A 5-10cm outcome on face value ATM.

    EC 12Z


    GFS 12z
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long range, high amplitude trough making itself known end of next week.
     
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  30. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A glorious morning now turned back to grey
     
  31. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks a little too occluded for my liking, whilst EC is mint. If it can shift 200km NNE then we could be talking closer to a foot. Coz 2020!
     
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  32. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.... even here in the rain shadow we unexpectedly received 20mm from that bit of cloud cover I posted pics of yesterday.....very welcome indeed.

    And, the mountain runoff from snow melt and recent rains into the lake is accumulating nicely now. It’s not full but has a lot more than several weeks back.


     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like a nice TS cell parked on the Main Range.
    Paging @SMSkier
     
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  34. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing much to report looking from leeward towards PV in this general area.



    Looks like a few spots of rain going by the BOM. No wind here. Waiting to see if it builds from the W or NW. That where the cells seem to be currently.
     
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  35. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Lake Jindabyne up from 52 to 72 % in 3 months... W
     
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  36. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rolling in .....

     
  37. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    SMSkier likes this.
  38. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of thunder and light rain kicked off about 20 mins back. Consistent with the post from @dawooduck...
     
  39. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    There looks like a couple of cm.s of snow might fall in the Oz Alps on Nov. 8th 2020. We shall watch and wait and see what happens.
     
  40. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Backed off now to light rain.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have come to their +SAM senses and dropped the polar outbreak neck week.
     
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  42. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My understanding is that a strong positive AAO/SAM trend will enhance sea ice cover this coming summer.

    Does a delayed sea ice melt season feed back into the AAO/SAM trend enhancing a positive bias?

    Would be interesting to see a comparison of La Nina years with postive AAO/SAM years.

    How all this feeds into the next few months will be most interesting.

    Meanwhile, it's a Saturday with plenty of weather.


     
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  44. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Next Saturday looking fairly cold according to gfs this morning imo
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not as cold as it did 2 days ago (see above posts).
    Trending the wrong way. Game over for that sucker IMO.
     
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  46. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unlike the storms North of here the local rain has generally been soaking but not smashing down. My property in the rain shadow sitting on 75mm for the storm event to date. Happy with that :thumbs:. Just a few sprinkles to date since dawn.

    Our river benefiting from local falls. It’s headwaters are at Mt Terrible, not far from Thredbo but above 1800 ASL. Decent flush happening.



    The flow to left of pic showing river over the “usual” banks and course. It generally runs to the right of the pic.



    Video if it works.....

     
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  47. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Do you have water access to that river? Also, does it have a name?
     
  48. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s on my property
     
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  49. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Yeh, I'm aware of that. So you can pump from it if you have to?

    (Also, you have beautiful gardens!!) (gardening THREAD)
     
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  50. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Riparian water rights. We pump about a kilometre to an old holding tank then gravity feed to where it’s needed.
     
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