Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

rocketboy

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Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
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Gerroa
PDO hints at whatever...

Click through to NOAA for 150 year chart.

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.
ENSO for reference

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stormkite2000

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Jan 1, 2020
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u20MhX.png



Ens forecast its wet north and to the southeast over the next two weeks.

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That's where i will leave it with this site. Happy i found another welcoming place i can post and call home.
 

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SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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First week of Nov lining up.
It's a weak signal on ensembles, but EC determs suggest 'come in spinner':
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_11.png

Good.... will happily take the precipitation :thumbs:

Meantime, looking SW a little cell has been pottering about from the border region.....Grosses Plain might be getting a few drops.

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This pic just taken. Wind is up a little with it along with some thunder.

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SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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Wettest day in a week of dampness, a little cracking rumble, a little small hail, a lot of good steady rain.

Jindy North Shore.

Yep.... even here in the rain shadow we unexpectedly received 20mm from that bit of cloud cover I posted pics of yesterday.....very welcome indeed.

And, the mountain runoff from snow melt and recent rains into the lake is accumulating nicely now. It’s not full but has a lot more than several weeks back.

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warrie

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Jun 15, 2008
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Sydney
Yep.... even here in the rain shadow we unexpectedly received 20mm from that bit of cloud cover I posted pics of yesterday.....very welcome indeed.

And, the mountain runoff from snow melt and recent rains into the lake is accumulating nicely now. It’s not full but has a lot more than several weeks back.

E631FFF8-D59E-4550-B55B-76F3A9DC9A9B.jpeg

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Lake Jindabyne up from 52 to 72 % in 3 months... W
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SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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Nothing much to report looking from leeward towards PV in this general area.

76C30E4A-BB74-498A-8D6D-901622F33AC2.jpeg


Looks like a few spots of rain going by the BOM. No wind here. Waiting to see if it builds from the W or NW. That where the cells seem to be currently.

A bit of thunder and light rain kicked off about 20 mins back. Consistent with the post from @dawooduck...
 

rocketboy

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Sep 9, 2010
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Gerroa
Models have come to their +SAM senses and dropped the polar outbreak neck week.

My understanding is that a strong positive AAO/SAM trend will enhance sea ice cover this coming summer.

Does a delayed sea ice melt season feed back into the AAO/SAM trend enhancing a positive bias?

Would be interesting to see a comparison of La Nina years with postive AAO/SAM years.

How all this feeds into the next few months will be most interesting.

Meanwhile, it's a Saturday with plenty of weather.


00157447.jpg
 

SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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Unlike the storms North of here the local rain has generally been soaking but not smashing down. My property in the rain shadow sitting on 75mm for the storm event to date. Happy with that :thumbs:. Just a few sprinkles to date since dawn.

Our river benefiting from local falls. It’s headwaters are at Mt Terrible, not far from Thredbo but above 1800 ASL. Decent flush happening.

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The flow to left of pic showing river over the “usual” banks and course. It generally runs to the right of the pic.

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Video if it works.....

 

Homer

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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Unlike the storms North of here the local rain has generally been soaking but not smashing down. My property in the rain shadow sitting on 75mm for the storm event to date. Happy with that :thumbs:. Just a few sprinkles to date since dawn.

Our river benefiting from local falls. It’s headwaters are at Mt Terrible, not far from Thredbo but above 1800 ASL. Decent flush happening.

Do you have water access to that river? Also, does it have a name?
 

SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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Yeh, I'm aware of that. So you can pump from it if you have to?

(Also, you have beautiful gardens!!) (gardening THREAD)
Riparian water rights. We pump about a kilometre to an old holding tank then gravity feed to where it’s needed.
 
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