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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.
PDO hints at whatever...
Click through to NOAA for 150 year chart.
ENSO for reference
The PDO barely affects Australian weather though.
Was referencing it in terms of the strength of the current La Nina and whether it turns into a major one like 2011/12.
Meanwhile GFS on speed dial is looking interesting for early Nov - here is a link to a 15 day loop
Clouds not often seen on the Jindy North Shore, boiling up beautifully after a day of absolutely sensational light.
@SMSkier Snowfall out of the Easterly flow Sunday - Just keeping to the 2020 theme.
Why the heck not.
BoM for Thredbo looking keen this morning, snow following some serious rain.
Better go easy on the rain or I'll need the 500 gram lures.
seriously another cold blast from the East?
Badja Hill an isolated chance of flurries/wintery mix on Sunday IMO.
Looks like round 1 (the wet stuff) has started to roll in a little earlier than expected.
And more to the West - pretty much straight towards PV.
So amazingly green there.
EC ens weeklies update for anyone interested. Plot2 control run.
Obs thread ? @POW_hungry
Obs thread ? @POW_hungry[/QUOTE]
For tassie maybe.
Victorian, Tas and NSW alpine obs thread is up:
Holy moly !
Joisus.If that comes off we will be needing more boats
How do you get the EC link on those charts.
Ens forecast its wet north and to the southeast over the next two weeks.
That's where i will leave it with this site. Happy i found another welcoming place i can post and call home.
What happened? Plenty on here enjoying the contributions.
We got a dusting of snow overnight at Baw Baw. Is there any snow in the pipeline for November?. I skied on 30 cm of fresh powder at Baw Baw in Nov. 2019. It was great!.
First week of Nov lining up.
It's a weak signal on ensembles, but EC determs suggest 'come in spinner':
Good.... will happily take the precipitation
Meantime, looking SW a little cell has been pottering about from the border region.....Grosses Plain might be getting a few drops.
This pic just taken. Wind is up a little with it along with some thunder.
Trending well on 00z
Are you expecting snow @POW_hungry?
EC's Determs are only just starting to be supported by GFS so there's a reasonable chance of snow in the Alpine end of next week.
IMO, it's 50/50 at this stage.
Wettest day in a week of dampness, a little cracking rumble, a little small hail, a lot of good steady rain.
Jindy North Shore.
Possible sniff of minty following weekend
Trending support on GFS this morning.
A 5-10cm outcome on face value ATM.
Long range, high amplitude trough making itself known end of next week.
A glorious morning now turned back to grey
GFS looks a little too occluded for my liking, whilst EC is mint. If it can shift 200km NNE then we could be talking closer to a foot. Coz 2020!
Yep.... even here in the rain shadow we unexpectedly received 20mm from that bit of cloud cover I posted pics of yesterday.....very welcome indeed.
And, the mountain runoff from snow melt and recent rains into the lake is accumulating nicely now. It’s not full but has a lot more than several weeks back.
Looking like a nice TS cell parked on the Main Range.
Nothing much to report looking from leeward towards PV in this general area.
Looks like a few spots of rain going by the BOM. No wind here. Waiting to see if it builds from the W or NW. That where the cells seem to be currently.
Lake Jindabyne up from 52 to 72 % in 3 months... W
Rolling in .....
Was just looking at the Canberra radar and came here to post that it looks like the Jindy North Shore looks like it'll get a hit.
Maybe better if you post in this thread instead.....
A bit of thunder and light rain kicked off about 20 mins back. Consistent with the post from @dawooduck...
There looks like a couple of cm.s of snow might fall in the Oz Alps on Nov. 8th 2020. We shall watch and wait and see what happens.
Backed off now to light rain.
Models have come to their +SAM senses and dropped the polar outbreak neck week.
My understanding is that a strong positive AAO/SAM trend will enhance sea ice cover this coming summer.
Does a delayed sea ice melt season feed back into the AAO/SAM trend enhancing a positive bias?
Would be interesting to see a comparison of La Nina years with postive AAO/SAM years.
How all this feeds into the next few months will be most interesting.
Meanwhile, it's a Saturday with plenty of weather.
Next Saturday looking fairly cold according to gfs this morning imo
Not as cold as it did 2 days ago (see above posts).
Trending the wrong way. Game over for that sucker IMO.
Unlike the storms North of here the local rain has generally been soaking but not smashing down. My property in the rain shadow sitting on 75mm for the storm event to date. Happy with that . Just a few sprinkles to date since dawn.
Our river benefiting from local falls. It’s headwaters are at Mt Terrible, not far from Thredbo but above 1800 ASL. Decent flush happening.
The flow to left of pic showing river over the “usual” banks and course. It generally runs to the right of the pic.
Video if it works.....
Do you have water access to that river? Also, does it have a name?
It’s on my property
Yeh, I'm aware of that. So you can pump from it if you have to?
(Also, you have beautiful gardens!!) (gardening THREAD)
Riparian water rights. We pump about a kilometre to an old holding tank then gravity feed to where it’s needed.