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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.
10-15cm of new snot on Mount Field overnight.
Currently-9 wind chill at Baw Baw mid day
Snow shower passing through Thredbo. Reports of snow flakes at village level, not settling.
Dusting on Basin cam.
Unanimously, across all GFS ensemble members we’ll revisit the same -2 index value of the AAO, just as we did in August, over the next 7-10 days.
What a generous dusting in falls we got yesterday. The skies opened up and gave us a nice surprise. -4 degree morning with a healthy -10 wind chill
GFS not mucking around with the strongest -'ve SAM signal of the year, thanks to the SSW event:
Nodal AF on EC Long Range:
This system will get a few more upgrades (the back-end, 27th) this week IMO. Fair bit of trough influence impacting as pre-frontal.
But 15-20cm on the Main Range after all said and done, I reckon.
Solid plots. Magnitude is quite stodgy for late Oct.
Have a spell winter. Trying to play some cricket ffs!
This looks a fair chance of being ridged South but she’s big and formidable for late-October:
GFS trying a few days later too.
We are basically in the optimal environment for spring snowfall, with the -AAO anoms associated with the downwelling SSW.
latest updates not looking good for precip. this drought has months to run
I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore Toto.
I suspect these don’t occur too frequently here outside of Melbourne either. I took these photos on Saturday evening and thought they might be of interest to post in the forum.
posted about in Vic thread.
Is there any rock hopper -able snow coming for this skier who is struggling to adapt to green season?. That snow at Falls Creek on Sat. looked rock hopper friendly .
A flake or two on Saturday based on this but I wouldnt bank on much at Falls.
I am now in Bushwalking and surfing mode. I will have to save up for a Ski trip abroad in the future .January often becomes too hot to hike here in VIC. .
The change came through earlier today. Thredbo TS had a gust over 120kph.
Currently it’s warm, windy with localised thunder. Some sparodic rain showers sweeping off the mountains but not a lot on the leeward side.
Decent rain avoiding Moonbah and it’s mostly following the regular path leaving us in the known rain shadow....
Hopefully it gets colder early tomorrow....and additional rain follows here with snow on the peaks.
Pic generally facing SW towards Thredbo and the border....
From Armageddon Snow to Armageddon Surf
Seven Mile Beach Gerroa.
Yep. Dust here as well...... have been watching it come up from the SW...
We’ve had the wind and dust storm here in Canberra today, covering my new car liberally with brown dirt from inland Australia. Now the beautiful sound of rain and thunder as a storm passes through.
Snowing on the Main Range, right down to Friday Flat.
Dusting at Hotham, Falls and Baw Baw.
Buller getting it’s turn:
I am seeing a decent chance of a cold outbreak circa 6-10th November for the SE.
At this stage it's a 50/50 chance, however both LR models/ensembles & LWT favour the scenario.
SW WA could also end up with something very decent.
I reckon 20 cms was on the mark! Good call... BOM showing 16 at PV today so likely a bit more up top plus it’s still falling. Was a blizzard this afternoon! Drive up was fun!
Still maybe a coupla cms in it yet, too.
These are the kinds of systems that’ll upgrade models in the next few runs.
Here in VIC. the Cup Day Long weekend( First weekend in November) looks like it will be quite wet to begin with. That is a poor forecast for bushwalking above 1300 M. .http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbuller.shtml
Light hail (sago?) and snow flakes all day yesterday in Crackenback NSW. It was super exciting!!! Sunny skies today though I can see a few dark clouds accumulating in the Thredbo direction, hoping for another storm to come through.
Nov 4 & 5 looks a bit chilly for Vic and Tas on 18Z GFS.
I'm planning to hike/camp the main range 8-11 Nov. Looking like it may be best to be below treeline for some of that time.
Bugger off, winter!
take a rain coat - ill take the 40mm thanks
I've been looking for a clearing high on the weekends for 6 weeks (nevermind 1 weekend!)...The long wave pattern has been peaking right on Friday's for over a month now (and largely; most of the 2019 winter).
It's been a tricky winter for the weekend warriors.
There she is:
EC's 00z rain prog, for this w/e:
Will cricket be a washout on the mornington peninsula this weekend? Been a bit unlucky this season with several games being called off due to a soggy pitch (and blokes wanting an early arvo tea/beer)
Saturday might be the worry, yeah.
BoM website currently down, which is odd.
Under hacker attack again?
It seemed to be back pretty quickly.
Looks to me EC has backed off a lot, at least for greater Melbourne. Saturday morning looks wet, but after than it looks relatively fine.
Looking good for the southern interior / ranges. Even Gippsland might get a little.
Gee GFS really pushing this cold outbreak button for next monday night
Should topple some Nov temp records in SW WA, Friday/Satdee though.