Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10-15cm of new snot on Mount Field overnight.
     
    #101 POW_hungry, Oct 19, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2019
  2. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Currently-9 wind chill at Baw Baw mid day
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow shower passing through Thredbo. Reports of snow flakes at village level, not settling.
    Dusting on Basin cam.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unanimously, across all GFS ensemble members we’ll revisit the same -2 index value of the AAO, just as we did in August, over the next 7-10 days.
     
  6. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    What a generous dusting in falls we got yesterday. The skies opened up and gave us a nice surprise. -4 degree morning with a healthy -10 wind chill
     

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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS not mucking around with the strongest -'ve SAM signal of the year, thanks to the SSW event:


    Nodal AF on EC Long Range:
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This system will get a few more upgrades (the back-end, 27th) this week IMO. Fair bit of trough influence impacting as pre-frontal.
    But 15-20cm on the Main Range after all said and done, I reckon.
    EC:
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solid plots. Magnitude is quite stodgy for late Oct.
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have a spell winter. Trying to play some cricket ffs!
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This looks a fair chance of being ridged South but she’s big and formidable for late-October:
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS trying a few days later too.


    We are basically in the optimal environment for spring snowfall, with the -AAO anoms associated with the downwelling SSW.
     
  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    latest updates not looking good for precip. this drought has months to run
     
  15. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A whiter shade of pale
    I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore Toto.

    I suspect these don’t occur too frequently here outside of Melbourne either. I took these photos on Saturday evening and thought they might be of interest to post in the forum.


     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    posted about in Vic thread.:thumbs:
     
  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is there any rock hopper -able snow coming for this skier who is struggling to adapt to green season?. That snow at Falls Creek on Sat. looked rock hopper friendly .
     
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  18. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A flake or two on Saturday based on this but I wouldnt bank on much at Falls.
     
  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am now in Bushwalking and surfing mode. I will have to save up for a Ski trip abroad in the future .January often becomes too hot to hike here in VIC. .
     
  20. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The change came through earlier today. Thredbo TS had a gust over 120kph.

    Currently it’s warm, windy with localised thunder. Some sparodic rain showers sweeping off the mountains but not a lot on the leeward side.

    Decent rain avoiding Moonbah and it’s mostly following the regular path leaving us in the known rain shadow....

    Hopefully it gets colder early tomorrow....and additional rain follows here with snow on the peaks.

    Pic generally facing SW towards Thredbo and the border....

     
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    From Armageddon Snow to Armageddon Surf


    Seven Mile Beach Gerroa.
     
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  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Dust here as well...... have been watching it come up from the SW...
     
  23. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    We’ve had the wind and dust storm here in Canberra today, covering my new car liberally with brown dirt from inland Australia. Now the beautiful sound of rain and thunder as a storm passes through.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing on the Main Range, right down to Friday Flat.
     
  25. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dusting at Hotham, Falls and Baw Baw.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller getting it’s turn:
     
  27. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am seeing a decent chance of a cold outbreak circa 6-10th November for the SE.
    At this stage it's a 50/50 chance, however both LR models/ensembles & LWT favour the scenario.
    SW WA could also end up with something very decent.
     
  29. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon 20 cms was on the mark! Good call... BOM showing 16 at PV today so likely a bit more up top plus it’s still falling. Was a blizzard this afternoon! Drive up was fun!



     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still maybe a coupla cms in it yet, too.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    These are the kinds of systems that’ll upgrade models in the next few runs.
    Win.
     
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  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Interruptedbyfireworks

    Interruptedbyfireworks One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Light hail (sago?) and snow flakes all day yesterday in Crackenback NSW. It was super exciting!!! Sunny skies today though I can see a few dark clouds accumulating in the Thredbo direction, hoping for another storm to come through.

    Yesterday:


    Just now:

     
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  35. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Nov 4 & 5 looks a bit chilly for Vic and Tas on 18Z GFS.
     
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  36. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm planning to hike/camp the main range 8-11 Nov. Looking like it may be best to be below treeline for some of that time.

    Bugger off, winter!
     
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  37. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    take a rain coat - ill take the 40mm thanks :)
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've been looking for a clearing high on the weekends for 6 weeks (nevermind 1 weekend!)...The long wave pattern has been peaking right on Friday's for over a month now (and largely; most of the 2019 winter).
    It's been a tricky winter for the weekend warriors.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There she is:
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's 00z rain prog, for this w/e:
     
  41. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Will cricket be a washout on the mornington peninsula this weekend? Been a bit unlucky this season with several games being called off due to a soggy pitch (and blokes wanting an early arvo tea/beer)
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday might be the worry, yeah.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM website currently down, which is odd.
    Under hacker attack again?
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It seemed to be back pretty quickly.
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to me EC has backed off a lot, at least for greater Melbourne. Saturday morning looks wet, but after than it looks relatively fine.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking good for the southern interior / ranges. Even Gippsland might get a little.

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gee GFS really pushing this cold outbreak button for next monday night
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should topple some Nov temp records in SW WA, Friday/Satdee though.
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wrong thread?
     
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