1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Plennyah wiggle room here.
    Ridge is rolling back to take a bow.
    [​IMG]
     
    SMSkier and Kletterer like this.
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC - A tad warm initialy but could be some juice later in the system.
     
    SMSkier and POW_hungry like this.
  3. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,432
    Likes Received:
    13,544
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    I've noticed that yr.no has been very delayed with some updates in the last couple of days. Some delayed up to 24 hours. All seems ok now.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC progging 30-40 cents on the MR 7-9th November, on this mornings 12z.

    Trending well.
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,980
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    It's certainly looking like a great setup, but it's still fairly early.

    7th of Nov

    GFS likes this for a small cold event. EC looks fairly dry, and CMC looks a little warm.

    8th/9th of Nov

    EC and CMC both look solid for this system, even though this is early days. Solid particularly for this time of year. That EC prog above looks like winter.
     
  6. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,165
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Looks like a good system for Southern Vic late next week. I'm paying more attention to this weekend and the prospect of potentially our heaviest rain for the year. Could be 10mm or 40mm....
     
    Snowy Joey and Claude Cat like this.
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    ICON is certainly into it.
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
  11. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,134
    Likes Received:
    14,953
    Location:
    Top drawer
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,980
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Welcome to the never-ending winter....
     
    SMSkier, Kletterer and Undies like this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    00z has a further roll back of that IO trailing high.
    More sling to the shot.
     
    SMSkier and Kletterer like this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    At this rate, upper reaches of Hobart suburbs could see flakage.
    [​IMG]
     
    DiscoStuAU and SMSkier like this.
  15. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,134
    Likes Received:
    14,953
    Location:
    Top drawer
    Thinking at this rate I will have to cancel the hike. 30-40cm won’t be fun when it’s falling or in the 3 days afterwards.
     
    Majikthise likes this.
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    Across the parameters on EC the trend has been hinting at a strong back end imo.
     
    SMSkier and POW_hungry like this.
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,980
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Get the skis?
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The usual EC system evolution =
    Paddy-cake the front-end first, paddy-cake the rear-end, then carve-up closer to the event.
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,980
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yep the real snowy end is at the backend of this run.
     
    SMSkier and Kletterer like this.
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,980
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    And it looks like a Baw Baw special too.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    Might require a seperate thread for historic purposes. @POW_hungry
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,980
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    EC run at this point is around 25cm.

    Noting the wider synoptics, this will probably get 20-50cm for the Main Range if EC stays on trend.

    The EC Run thinks it’s cold enough for snow for the Otways and Strzeleckis, as well as Ballarat and surrounds.



    Probably worth noting that GFS isn’t on side, and that Spring typically has lower verification for long term forecasts. But the trend is there.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  25. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    8,877
    Likes Received:
    8,018
    Location:
    Melbourne
    XC Skiing comes before bushwalking. This weekend is looking too wet to go for a hike and Sat. week could be XC skiable!
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,754
    Likes Received:
    61,997
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    lol nope.

    This is full washout.... but only after being told to report to grounds in pissing rain at 11am.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Rain by Sunday AM:
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,754
    Likes Received:
    61,997
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    yep.
    better pack the cards or hope it starts early enough to wash the whole thing before grounds required to report in.
     
  29. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    8,877
    Likes Received:
    8,018
    Location:
    Melbourne
    This weekend is snorkel and flippers material. Sat. week could be skiable though !
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Officially, the low in the Bight underwent bombgensis overnight (actually easily exceeding that).
    Now clocking up ~966hpa with further deepening, yet to go.


    [​IMG]
     
    SnowBound, Brownedog, Gregah and 9 others like this.
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    123,524
    Likes Received:
    71,227
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC moving the rain to (mostly) Saturday afternoon for Melbourne. GFS still showing only 10mm or so.

    Warm, but not unpleasantly so this morning, the wind is just starting to pick-up.
     
    Edgecrusher likes this.
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    Substantial
     
    WarrandyteWX likes this.
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    Something is coming . EC 00Z
     
  34. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2003
    Messages:
    36,473
    Likes Received:
    24,034
    Location:
    Kiewa Valley
    Saturday was just oppressive for most of the day up in the kiewa valley. Radar showed the south bound band missing us to the west. Eventually some light rain in the late arvo then steady rain later. Nothing torrential and no thunder.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not a bad drink for the interior:
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Thredbo TS hitting 104 km/h wind gusts in the last halfa.
     
  37. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    20,171
    It’s been picking up. Left there 30 mins ago after spending the weekend at our club lodge. Some rain late yesterday and early this morning and had started to fall again as we left.

     
    Jellybeans and POW_hungry like this.
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, radar shows the heavy stuff just kicking off for Thredbo, RN.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    2-3cm tomorrow night for all mainland resorts IMO.
    Snow lowering to ~1100m by late Monday evening.
     
    Claude Cat, MarkV and SMSkier like this.
  40. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2015
    Messages:
    196
    Likes Received:
    333
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yesterday's solid inch of lovely rain was very welcome in Canberra.
     
    Kletterer and POW_hungry like this.
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
    Snowing at Baw Baw.
     
    SMSkier, POW_hungry and MarkV like this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,653
    Likes Received:
    21,468
    Location:
    Canberra
  43. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    465
    impressive for 15 mins
     
  44. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,198
    Likes Received:
    744
    Ground cooler for baw Baw before the main meal at the end of week
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Fizzer.
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Heavy schnee at Buller. Bourke Street already covered.

     
    Edgecrusher, Tweekin, MarkV and 2 others like this.
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,828
    Likes Received:
    30,161
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Cold air just checked into Thredbo. Temp drop to +0.6 & 1.2mm in the can.
    Suspect it's close to snow at 1800m there.
     
    Kletterer and SMSkier like this.
  48. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    20,171
    On the money @POW_hungry... PV just now...

     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  49. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2003
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    79
    Location:
    Mona Vale, NSW
    cams looking great!
     
  50. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    26,607
    Likes Received:
    15,983
    Location:
    Melbourne