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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.
Plennyah wiggle room here.
Ridge is rolling back to take a bow.
EC - A tad warm initialy but could be some juice later in the system.
I've noticed that yr.no has been very delayed with some updates in the last couple of days. Some delayed up to 24 hours. All seems ok now.
EC progging 30-40 cents on the MR 7-9th November, on this mornings 12z.
It's certainly looking like a great setup, but it's still fairly early.
7th of Nov
GFS likes this for a small cold event. EC looks fairly dry, and CMC looks a little warm.
8th/9th of Nov
EC and CMC both look solid for this system, even though this is early days. Solid particularly for this time of year. That EC prog above looks like winter.
Looks like a good system for Southern Vic late next week. I'm paying more attention to this weekend and the prospect of potentially our heaviest rain for the year. Could be 10mm or 40mm....
ICON is certainly into it.
Welcome to the never-ending winter....
00z has a further roll back of that IO trailing high.
More sling to the shot.
At this rate, upper reaches of Hobart suburbs could see flakage.
Thinking at this rate I will have to cancel the hike. 30-40cm won’t be fun when it’s falling or in the 3 days afterwards.
Across the parameters on EC the trend has been hinting at a strong back end imo.
Get the skis?
The usual EC system evolution =
Paddy-cake the front-end first, paddy-cake the rear-end, then carve-up closer to the event.
Yep the real snowy end is at the backend of this run.
And it looks like a Baw Baw special too.
Might require a seperate thread for historic purposes. @POW_hungry
EC run at this point is around 25cm.
Noting the wider synoptics, this will probably get 20-50cm for the Main Range if EC stays on trend.
The EC Run thinks it’s cold enough for snow for the Otways and Strzeleckis, as well as Ballarat and surrounds.
Probably worth noting that GFS isn’t on side, and that Spring typically has lower verification for long term forecasts. But the trend is there.
New thread is up:
XC Skiing comes before bushwalking. This weekend is looking too wet to go for a hike and Sat. week could be XC skiable!
This is full washout.... but only after being told to report to grounds in pissing rain at 11am.
Rain by Sunday AM:
better pack the cards or hope it starts early enough to wash the whole thing before grounds required to report in.
This weekend is snorkel and flippers material. Sat. week could be skiable though !
Officially, the low in the Bight underwent bombgensis overnight (actually easily exceeding that).
Now clocking up ~966hpa with further deepening, yet to go.
EC moving the rain to (mostly) Saturday afternoon for Melbourne. GFS still showing only 10mm or so.
Warm, but not unpleasantly so this morning, the wind is just starting to pick-up.
Something is coming . EC 00Z
Saturday was just oppressive for most of the day up in the kiewa valley. Radar showed the south bound band missing us to the west. Eventually some light rain in the late arvo then steady rain later. Nothing torrential and no thunder.
Not a bad drink for the interior:
Thredbo TS hitting 104 km/h wind gusts in the last halfa.
It’s been picking up. Left there 30 mins ago after spending the weekend at our club lodge. Some rain late yesterday and early this morning and had started to fall again as we left.
Yeah, radar shows the heavy stuff just kicking off for Thredbo, RN.
2-3cm tomorrow night for all mainland resorts IMO.
Snow lowering to ~1100m by late Monday evening.
Yesterday's solid inch of lovely rain was very welcome in Canberra.
Snowing at Baw Baw.
impressive for 15 mins
Ground cooler for baw Baw before the main meal at the end of week
Heavy schnee at Buller. Bourke Street already covered.
Cold air just checked into Thredbo. Temp drop to +0.6 & 1.2mm in the can.
Suspect it's close to snow at 1800m there.
On the money @POW_hungry... PV just now...
cams looking great!