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Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking nice towards the top of the NSW resorts...

     
    nfip, Edgecrusher, Claude Cat and 2 others like this.
  2. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw copped a dumping
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong LWT amplitude on GFS, over the next week, perhaps marking the shift in the prolonged -'ve AAO event.
     
  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this prolonged neg AAO partly related to the stratospheric warming event?
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS showing a stalled LWT between Aus & NZ over the next 8 days.
    Looking like we may see a few more Southerly frontal system sneak through the SE of Aus, but particularly fruitful for more snow bearing systems through NZ over the next week:
    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    LR models showing the 12/13th Nov with a sneaky chance of snow on the peaks IMO.
    This stall (quoted above) might just break that weekend LWT trend for the SE.
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tassie EC precip model.
    10 dayer.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s all set up for Tassie over the next week. It’s needs a good drink and a chill down before it cops more heat in about 10 days IMO.
     
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  11. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    big fires here int the nw 'er last week.
    could have gone either side of the mtn into the burbs...
     
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  12. scottski

    scottski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow from Cooma airport to Berridale tonight around 8 pm
    Snow on the ground at my place when I arrived
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should see the old fall tonight to early tomorrow AM too IMO.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chance of a little bit of snow on the 12/13th:


    GFS is trying for the 20th too apparently:
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM sharing a contradiction in the PM forecast for Tuesday (District Vs Thredbo TS forecast):


    Snow as low as 1100m for the MR, early-Wednesday AM, possibly down as low as 900m for Vic IMO.
     
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbawbaw.shtml
    Mt. Baw Baw could become white again by Mid morning on Wed. this week. Jeepers, I have to work this week but XC skiing off season Mt. Baw Baw is my kind of thing really.10 cms would be enough to ski on. I may be able to juggle things just in case some more skiing is possible on Wed. 13/11/19.
     
    #216 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 11, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2019
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM now almost falling into line ;), dropping snow levels from 1400m to 1200m in today's PM forecast for Wednesday.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw (and Vic Alps) will be lucky to see a dusting IMO, it's a dry cold pool.
     
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  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tuesday 12 November
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 3
    Max 8
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the west, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 900 metres. Possible hail in the late afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting westerly 30 to 45 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 21.

    Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

    Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

    7 day Town Forecasts

    Precis Icon
    Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Latrobe Valley 10 17
    [​IMG] Sale 12 19
    Wednesday 13 November
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 5
    Showers or snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible hail in the early morning. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 19.
     
  20. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    The modelling from Ms. Bunn seems to line up with your take on this cold front. Meanwhile the winds are all wrong for surfing at many VIC. locations.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The majority of the BoM's forecasted moisture will be ahead of the cold air. So perhaps 5-10mm rain for Baw Baw, with 3-5mm falling over several hours in the coldest air IMO.
     
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  22. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  23. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Snowing heavily at Buller ATM (8:12am). Again. White Christmas perhaps?
     
  24. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  25. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    This morning the upper levels of Mt. Stirling looked white too.
     
    #225 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 13, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
  26. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    another front coming thru Tassie. More snow . . . . .
     
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  27. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    BOM Canberra have max of 37 both next Thursday and Friday. Are they right seems a bit high. They often over estimate or under estimate!!
     
  28. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    BOM have 39deg for Bairnsdale next Thursday. Mild...
     
  29. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

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    Mount Mawson still Rockin it on the cams
     
  30. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melb this week, 17, 29, 19, 32.. consecutive days. Just shows how much warmth lerking just to the north of us waiting for the NW stream to bring it down. Then SW the next.. scary and annoying.. I hate hot November's, but almost hate the inconsistent temps more. How can I decide what beer to buy a box of tomorrow?
     
  31. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Adelaide is forecast 42 degrees on Wednesday. Becoming windy :( Could be a bad day fire wise but will have to wait and see.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    SAM sticking around with only on member indicating a hike North toward positive territory.
    Alas the -'ve SAM event looks enduring yet. More broadscale extremes for the SE and Westerlies for Tas IMO.
    Tas should see more winter-like WX ~25th Nov, with a chance of snow on higher ground IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps something that might make it to the mainland on the 30th Nov/1st Dec:


     
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  34. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The arrival of this front should coincide with @mick chopps turning up to his Saturday cricket match.LOL
    [​IMG]
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ve got that week off. But seriously winter, you’re not welcome.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can it come during the week, just once this spring?
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    She said no.
     
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  39. Peli89

    Peli89 One of Us

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    Already over 40 in multiple locations around adelaide. 1045am local time... HOT.
     
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  40. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Plenty of fire ratings of 140+ in SA. Wudinna Ap 194! :eek:

    41.6C and a northerly gusting to 76km/h with RH at 5%. Probably nothing to burn out there right?
     
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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowy potential for the mainland resorts on Tuesday afternoon and evening.


    And even more potential on November 30th-December 2nd, with a potential for summer snowfall.


    And not expected to end anytime soon, thanks to the lingering SSW effects bringing a -AAO well into a early December. But I don’t think it will last for a whole lot longer.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z backs off the cold outbreak scenario for the 30th/1st, this evening.
    Positively, it does look like some ULL impact that draws in moisture and instab.
     
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  43. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are the thoughts for Jindabyne / Perisher saturday 30th. L'Etape bike race is running. BOM has it pretty wet, plus windy at Perisher. Norway has the moisture coming later, in the evening.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a ways off yet. GFS & The Canadian have gone bold and bullish this evening. Deterministic are flip flopping.
    My hunch is that it's wide open to ridging. I think the adjustments will come in the next 2-3 runs.
    GFS:
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain coming in mid-late afternoon. Potential for snow up at Perisher later at night IMO per GFS and EC at this point.


    May change in alignment here though. The way it currently looks, the Victorian Alps would do better from this little cold pool in terms of snowfall.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    15 cm for the main range next Monday.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS (and EC) depicting the Saturday system that clears the way, GFS looking dry, EC trying to interact the cold and precipitation for snowfall.


    Monday/Tuesday next week looking potentially pretty good in terms of cold for this time of year, more so in Victoria. Quite ridgey, but workable, given we have a very good base state.
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    And supported by a strong LWT and -AAO:
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    That last EC runs smells like upgrade to me Jelly.
     
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  50. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Winter can p**s off now,it's had it's turn.