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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.
Looking nice towards the top of the NSW resorts...
Baw Baw copped a dumping
Strong LWT amplitude on GFS, over the next week, perhaps marking the shift in the prolonged -'ve AAO event.
Is this prolonged neg AAO partly related to the stratospheric warming event?
Latest GFS showing a stalled LWT between Aus & NZ over the next 8 days.
Looking like we may see a few more Southerly frontal system sneak through the SE of Aus, but particularly fruitful for more snow bearing systems through NZ over the next week:
Yes. Not partly, predominately.
LR models showing the 12/13th Nov with a sneaky chance of snow on the peaks IMO.
This stall (quoted above) might just break that weekend LWT trend for the SE.
Tassie EC precip model.
It’s all set up for Tassie over the next week. It’s needs a good drink and a chill down before it cops more heat in about 10 days IMO.
big fires here int the nw 'er last week.
could have gone either side of the mtn into the burbs...
Snow from Cooma airport to Berridale tonight around 8 pm
Snow on the ground at my place when I arrived
Should see the old fall tonight to early tomorrow AM too IMO.
Chance of a little bit of snow on the 12/13th:
GFS is trying for the 20th too apparently:
BoM sharing a contradiction in the PM forecast for Tuesday (District Vs Thredbo TS forecast):
Snow as low as 1100m for the MR, early-Wednesday AM, possibly down as low as 900m for Vic IMO.
Mt. Baw Baw could become white again by Mid morning on Wed. this week. Jeepers, I have to work this week but XC skiing off season Mt. Baw Baw is my kind of thing really.10 cms would be enough to ski on. I may be able to juggle things just in case some more skiing is possible on Wed. 13/11/19.
BoM now almost falling into line , dropping snow levels from 1400m to 1200m in today's PM forecast for Wednesday.
Baw Baw (and Vic Alps) will be lucky to see a dusting IMO, it's a dry cold pool.
Tuesday 12 November
Snow showers. Very windy.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
West and South Gippsland area
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the west, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 900 metres. Possible hail in the late afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting westerly 30 to 45 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 21.
Fire Danger - Low-Moderate
Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]
7 day Town Forecasts
Precis Icon Location Min Max
Latrobe Valley 10 17
Sale 12 19
Wednesday 13 November
Showers or snow. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
West and South Gippsland area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the west, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible hail in the early morning. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 19.
The modelling from Ms. Bunn seems to line up with your take on this cold front. Meanwhile the winds are all wrong for surfing at many VIC. locations.
The majority of the BoM's forecasted moisture will be ahead of the cold air. So perhaps 5-10mm rain for Baw Baw, with 3-5mm falling over several hours in the coldest air IMO.
Baw Baw looks XC skiable today , again !!. I would guess that 7-8 cm of fresh snow fell overnight
I have FOMO. Oh stop taunting me like this.... :-0
Snowing heavily at Buller ATM (8:12am). Again. White Christmas perhaps?
This morning the upper levels of Mt. Stirling looked white too.
another front coming thru Tassie. More snow . . . . .
BOM Canberra have max of 37 both next Thursday and Friday. Are they right seems a bit high. They often over estimate or under estimate!!
BOM have 39deg for Bairnsdale next Thursday. Mild...
Mount Mawson still Rockin it on the cams
Melb this week, 17, 29, 19, 32.. consecutive days. Just shows how much warmth lerking just to the north of us waiting for the NW stream to bring it down. Then SW the next.. scary and annoying.. I hate hot November's, but almost hate the inconsistent temps more. How can I decide what beer to buy a box of tomorrow?
Adelaide is forecast 42 degrees on Wednesday. Becoming windy Could be a bad day fire wise but will have to wait and see.
SAM sticking around with only on member indicating a hike North toward positive territory.
Alas the -'ve SAM event looks enduring yet. More broadscale extremes for the SE and Westerlies for Tas IMO.
Tas should see more winter-like WX ~25th Nov, with a chance of snow on higher ground IMO.
Perhaps something that might make it to the mainland on the 30th Nov/1st Dec:
+ Global winds reverse decades of slowing and pick up speed
The arrival of this front should coincide with @mick chopps turning up to his Saturday cricket match.
I’ve got that week off. But seriously winter, you’re not welcome.
Can it come during the week, just once this spring?
She said no.
Already over 40 in multiple locations around adelaide. 1045am local time... HOT.
Plenty of fire ratings of 140+ in SA. Wudinna Ap 194!
41.6C and a northerly gusting to 76km/h with RH at 5%. Probably nothing to burn out there right?
Snowy potential for the mainland resorts on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
And even more potential on November 30th-December 2nd, with a potential for summer snowfall.
And not expected to end anytime soon, thanks to the lingering SSW effects bringing a -AAO well into a early December. But I don’t think it will last for a whole lot longer.
00Z backs off the cold outbreak scenario for the 30th/1st, this evening.
Positively, it does look like some ULL impact that draws in moisture and instab.
What are the thoughts for Jindabyne / Perisher saturday 30th. L'Etape bike race is running. BOM has it pretty wet, plus windy at Perisher. Norway has the moisture coming later, in the evening.
Still a ways off yet. GFS & The Canadian have gone bold and bullish this evening. Deterministic are flip flopping.
My hunch is that it's wide open to ridging. I think the adjustments will come in the next 2-3 runs.
Rain coming in mid-late afternoon. Potential for snow up at Perisher later at night IMO per GFS and EC at this point.
May change in alignment here though. The way it currently looks, the Victorian Alps would do better from this little cold pool in terms of snowfall.
15 cm for the main range next Monday.
GFS (and EC) depicting the Saturday system that clears the way, GFS looking dry, EC trying to interact the cold and precipitation for snowfall.
Monday/Tuesday next week looking potentially pretty good in terms of cold for this time of year, more so in Victoria. Quite ridgey, but workable, given we have a very good base state.
And supported by a strong LWT and -AAO:
That last EC runs smells like upgrade to me Jelly.
Winter can p**s off now,it's had it's turn.