Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2019.

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  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Positive IOD and SAM will come soon- or soonish. When we see some descent behavior in the Tropics things might start mixing things up up North .
     
  2. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Hope so Kletterer,getting real desperate up here.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow above 1400m across Vic by mid-afternoon today IMO.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flip floppin'.
    System on the 1st-3rd Dec is looking more ridged out IMO.
    Little more than a Tas special, and yet another mild weekend for the SE at this stage.
    Some pre-frontal on the 30th looks our best chance at some rain.
     
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  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Appears to be snowing up at Perisher. Dust as all F here again in Dubbo. SUggest Sydney will get it in a couple of hours. Storms brewing just east of here.
     
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  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a dusting at Hotham and Dinner Plain on the cams:

     
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  7. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Taken from the falls insta, product placement as always :)

     
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  8. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  9. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind has dropped at PV. Snow falling solidly. 4 cms or so ...

     
  10. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Webcam on Lake Eucembene seemed to snow down to the water in some places. Wow.
     
  11. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sleet at 1170 Hill Top, very welcome moisture
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  13. Ultra

    Ultra One of Us

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    Lots of thick flackes falling on the Tredbo and Perisher cams.
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS and EC looking good for the Monday system:



    Decent uppers and surface pressure for the Alps, for this time of year.
     
  15. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Straddled 0°-1° C with snow flurries the past hour, here at 1,290 m; clouds clearing up now. Currently 2.2° C, up from a low of 0.3° C about 5:40 PM.
     
  16. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very winter in the paddock with snow on the range. Gloves and beanie required dinking about on the quad.

     
  17. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    For a period of time the snow was falling solid....

    Just prior to the first pic there was decent thunder and heavy sleet. No claim of thunder snow but did not miss it by much!



    Melted quick but good for an hour or so.....


     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to see model alignment, now just need some trend.
    Seemingly top-heavy with upper level influence, and not much lower support (temps & moisture).
    Looks a little disconnected from the upper-levels to provide much substance through the SE of the continent.

    Has Zac @ Strat Observe disconnected his SH observations/time-series for the season? Looks like all the SH is down, otherwise.
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s obviously not a greatly optimal setup, time of year makes that so. Precip looks healthy on EC, but that needs some more time to work itself out, and same with the finer details of snow levels, etc. It’s about the details now IMO.

    I’d assume you’re right about StratObserve, he said he was going to do it after the final warming.
     
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  20. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Below 15C in Sydney this morning, unusual so late in the year in recent times. Glorious!
     
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  21. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    2c in Canberra :eek:. Was 17c yesterday at 5am, much nicer for riding.
     
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  22. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    I grew up in cronulla now in New Zealand on the east coast.....the Tasman sea is a strange beast.
     
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  23. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Frost over night at 2628
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big upgrade on EC this morning for Monday's polar injection through the SE.
    It still lives dangerously on the edge of a ridge out.
    RE: Snow, temps will be marginal below 1600m IMO

    EC progs that low to bottom out at 963hPa just South-East of Tas. That's stunning for December.
     
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  25. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely fabulous day here

     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  27. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    I start my attempt at the AAWT on Tuesday from the southern end. Expecting cold wet feet first coupla days on Baw Baw plateau in my lovely breathable summer boots. Fun times! Let it ridge out, I say
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  29. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Ridgey that ain’t
     
  30. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Have fun. We start walking this friday at the north end. Keep an eye out for us, the two toddlers should be a dead giveaway.

    The forecast for Saturday to Monday looks soggy for Kiandra.
     
  31. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    good luck mate and feel free to PM me any advice or interesting observations along the way, as I will you
     
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  32. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    wait. slow down. Hold the phone. You're doing the AAWT with TWO TODDLERS????????????????????
     
  33. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    See PM. Let's not get told off for being off topic.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You guys sure did pick a doozy of a year/season for the AAWT.

    Anyway, back on topic. Bit of sting in the tail, up the coast Wed AM. Barrington Tops might blow 40 knots Mon/Tues - That's impressive.
     
  35. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Record-shattering cold for December! –1° / 3° C forecast:

    [​IMG]

    The current record at Thredbo Village (1,380 m) lay at 3.9° C; held on the 2nd of December, 1969.
     
    #285 Adaminaby Angler, Nov 28, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2019
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  36. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Don't put your skis and boards away, if this was winter, we'd be getting excited with this forecast.
     
  37. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothings been put away;)..,

    And it does not need to be Winter to get excited when it comes to fresh snowfalls!!
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM has Hobart reaching 17C on Monday.
    Dreaming....
    EC Monday 5pm:
     
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  39. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like half that number would be about right based off that chart.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Max of 12°C IMO.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z showing 15-20cm on the Main Range above 1900m.
    Tasmania snowfalls could easily exceed a foot above 1200m by Tuesday night.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow down to 600m for Tas Tuesday AM, IMO.
     
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  43. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    My girlfriend is starting the Overland Track on Tuesday! Sounds like it's going to be a proper welcome to the southwest.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    She is going to require snow shoes.
     
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  45. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'll be surprised if they decide to set out to be honest. The crap thing about the Overland permits, is that if they don't go on Tuesday, they have to can the whole trip and accept a refund.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's snow accumulation Monday to Wednesday 11pm:
    >30cm above 900m.
     
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  47. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    They’ll want a pair of those little rubber shoe spikes that you slip over the soles of your boots. Like crampons for pussies.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd say 20-30cm for the Main Range on Sunday afternoon, thru to Wednesday morning.
    Most of it Sunday night/Monday, light snow showers possible to early Wednesday.
    Sunday afternoon should be better above 1800m ish, with colder temps overnight.

    10-20cm at Buller, with some mix and rain thrown in there.

    Highlighting the deep anomalies involved here:
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tas BoM now scales back Max for Hobart on Monday as 15°C... Getting there.
     
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  50. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    IDN29000

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the South Coast and Snowy Mountains forecast districts

    Issued at 10:17 am EDT on Friday 29 November 2019.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and southwesterly winds are expected during Saturday. Areas likely to be affected include the Snowy Mountains forecast district and elevated parts of the South Coast forecast district. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

    The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Friday.
     
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