Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Summer Weather Hotplate

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 30, 2019.

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  1. Peli89

    Peli89 One of Us

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    Already approaching 36 here in Adelaides north...

    Ceduna at 39 at 9.30am, Oodnadatta also above 39 at 9.30am. She's hot out there.
     
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  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    45c in Ceduna now. That's one to watch as the day progresses, especially since the forecast max was 44c.
     
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  3. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Ceduna 46.5c. Not quite its December record of 47.6c in 1976.
     
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  4. Peli89

    Peli89 One of Us

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    49 is the forecast max at Oak Valley on Friday...
     
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  5. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Hotspots so far today include Birdsville, Wudinna, and Ceduna. Ceduna the frontrunner again with 45.6c.
     
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  6. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Birdsville looks to be the winner today with 47.7c. Just a bit toasty, but short of its Dec 1972 record of 49.5c.
     
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  7. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    Haha, Birdsville is a hotspot everyday, even in winter. God only knows why anyone would want to live there. Same with Oodnadatta!
     
  8. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    BEER...24/7.
     
  9. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eucla has hit 49.8C today, beating the previous December high of 49.5C (Birdsville) and just 0.9C shy of the all time high.
     
  10. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nullabor up to 49.5C and still rising, we may yet crack 50.
     
  11. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    What a tease. A couple of 49.8Cs, and some mid 49s too.
     
  12. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eucla cracked it: 50.0C. The 5th hottest temp ever recorded in Australia. Nullarbor got to 49.9C.
     
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  13. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Adelaide forecast for tomorrow is 46C. Which would break it's highest ever Dec temp by a full degree - which was set today!
     
  14. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Port Augusta could be the place to watch today. Forecast max of 49C, already 35C at 6.30am.
     
  15. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This threads too quiet.....

    A few storm cells hovered about the mountains and surrounds around sunset.

    Thunder, lightning and a bit of small hail delivered 2mm on dry paddocks. Better than nought!

    Pics out of sequence....









     

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  16. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    I see Canberra has 40 deg again forecast end of next week Any sign that the heat ridge will weaken anytime soon. I have lived in Canberra since November 1967 and have not seen anything like it 36 37 maybe and fir two days not going on for three weeks off and on
     
  17. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    East Gippsland has got problems...these fires are motoring .....
     
  18. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Over the border they have problems to....Princess Highway May be under threat over next 24hours .
     
  20. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    Not wrong! Been burning for 6 weeks now, and not even close to being contained. Next few days will be interesting. Watched an extra 65 fire appliances roll into town this morning.
     
  21. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hope that's wrong. I'm doing my first trip to Summernats next weekend.
     
  22. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    A few spots of rain in Tangambalanga. No wind. Still Smokey AF. Been a very humid day up here
     
  23. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Team Bears can never pronounce Tangambalanga.....so we just say Kiewa!Take care uo there.....this fire season is going to be brutal....
     
  24. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moderators May get annoyed but again things winding up out to the east...this situation is deteriorating rapidly..... Take care out there....you can see what will unfold over the next few days....it ain’t going to be pleasant.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC deterministic supportive of substantial Long Wave influence next week.
    The model this morning indicates a cold front through the SE around the 10th Jan carrying with it a potential of some polar airmass.
     
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  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    47.8c reported at Penrith this afternoon - all time max temp record at current site. Nasty. It's dropped back to 45c now.

    It might be a record max for Sydney Basin in fact.

    Update - it equals the Richmond RAAF record from January 14, 1939. Penrith is back up to 47.1c, so it might be making a late run to break the record.
     
  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yep 48.1c so far at Penrith. New record for Sydney Basin I believe.
     
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  29. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Canberra Airport 43.1 a new record
     
  30. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    For completeness, Penrith ended up at 48.9C and Canberra Airport 44.0C, both of which are incredible.
     
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  31. Podlet

    Podlet Part of the Furniture

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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS The front on Friday
     
  33. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I know it's not 'real' but what is the BOM's explanation for discounting this?

    If a tornado hits Kurnell and the station there has a direct hit with a freak reading of 220km/h or so, it counts (as occurred a few years back). So if fire weather delivers a high temp like this, assuming it's not an equipment malfunction, what is the difference?
     
  34. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    US man shoots kids throwing snowballs at cars
    Milwaukee (AFP) Jan 7, 2020 -
    Police in the northern US state of Wisconsin said Tuesday they are looking for a man who shot two children who threw snowballs at his car over the weekend.

    The children -- a 12-year-old girl and a 13-year old boy -- suffered non-life threatening gunshot wounds, the Milwaukee Police said in a statement.

    They were part of a group of kids throwing snowballs at passing cars Saturday evening in Milwaukee, a city of about half a million people 90 miles (145 kilometers) north of Chicago.

    "One of the snowballs struck a white Toyota, no further description, and the driver of the auto fired shots into the group of kids striking the two victims," the statement said.

    The department asked for help identifying the shooter.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going off the AAO - would not be surprising to see a coolish event in early Feb. Long range GFS hints at something around then as well.

    [​IMG]
     
  37. Piste Again

    Piste Again Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I read in the SMH here that the smoke has reached the stratosphere and is expected to travel right around the world. I suspect this is completely unprecedented.

    So an academic question. There can't be a real silver lining in a pyrocumulonimbus, and given the death, destruction and heartache the fires have caused I apologise to anyone affected if this is an insensitive question, but if there is this much smoke and ash in the higher reaches of the atmosphere, is it likely to have a similar effect to a volcanic eruption, cool the planet a little and generate more snowfall this winter?

    I do not ask out of self-interest, I ask out of academic interest.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably more last week of Jan if you ask me.
     
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  39. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    many suspect global dimming is already reducing rate of warming - this will surely just add to it.

    ... at this rate it'll start out as red snow this season.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Traces of 'our' smoke in the strat are well into their 2nd circumnavigation IIRC.

    Aerosols traced into the strat, born from bushfires are not uncommon.
    The duration and high Aersol Index traced through SH is, however, significant - moreso that it's interacting with polar winds (faster, greater transport).

    What effects that has on global weather? IMHO, probably not much when you compare it to something like Taal (Filipino volcanic erruption over the w/e), which would have had significant aerosol transport into the strat, but doubt it'll have much, if any climatic effects.
    TBH honest our global trend of temperature increase will far exceed any (& counter-balance) temp reduction by Stratospheric shadowing of UV etc.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    GFS remaining bullish for the upcoming period.
     
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  42. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nerriga and Turpentine Rds re opened at 10am today. Not sure if all the way to Braidwood - doubt it - as still fires down past the Tarago turnoff near the new bridge.
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quick google:

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Aerosols/page3.php

    I had a chart from my uni days with relative warming/cooling potentials (absorption and albedo combination, among other things) of liquids, gasses and aerosols, but I cant seem to find it online. It does exist somewhere.
     
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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Something like this one:

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great chart.

    I was reading something elsewhere about the black carbon potentially if it gets to the tropics, dampening convection (like the Maritime Continent MJO signal). Which seems kind of weird given we are in a very strong MJO pulse, but I guess it hasn’t got up there. Or something else?
     
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  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My opinion on that is that we have done so little research (comparatively) that it's nothing really more than an educated guess at this point in time. There's a lot of theories but there just hasnt been enough research done concerning carbon black and aerosols, and many studies state that it's not well understood and a poorly research area of atmospheric science/climatology. Yet no one seems to be putting up their hand to do the work :p

    edit: the error bar on aerosols on that chart backs up what i'm saying above, doesnt it?
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the Toon Aerosol Research Group in Colorado have been doing a bit of interesting work lately.
     
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at the range of impact for aerosol - you could do a backward calculation from expected to observed warming - and probably better estimate the aerosol impact from that. We'll know in a decade or so as China continues to clean up it's air quality. India will counter that to some degree - but the pressure is building there as well to do something about air pollution.

    Once the air is much cleaner - warming could quite easily accelerate at a very fast clip.

    There's a ton on quality science on this particular topic - both Hansen and Mann have written extensively on it.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Both EC & GFS long range going for an interesting detached longwave trough (500mb) through the SE of continent.
    It looks to kick off an active week for the Southern States with signals of a follow-up on the 27-29th for SA, VIC & Tas.

    At a guess we may have several cut off lows by the end of next week, IMO.


     
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