Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Summer Weather Hotplate

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 30, 2019.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s not a bad look for the 26th-29th period.


    But it probably marks the end of this round of precipitation and “interesting weather”.

    The MJO is leaving the region over the next week or so.
    And the AAO is looking like it will go negative again, which during summer means lots of ridging over Australia and drier conditions. Not sure how long it will continue, but it’s going to be a key indicator in terms of when we will see more interesting weather in the long long term.
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's been quite a bit of rainfall in NW WA and the central parts of the country in the past 2-3 weeks (although some places have missed out) and more extensive cloud cover than in the previous months (that lead to the really hot temperatures building up) so that should limit the amount of very hot air in the interior of the country, which might give us some respite from very hot temperatures in the SE. I dont see the monsoon trough moving too much though, so I dont know if the 'interesting' weather will leave us should the MJO move away and the AAO go negative.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I don’t think we will go back to very hot conditions quickly, but IMO less precipitation gradually. Probably not to the same dry levels as before. There obviously has been a sensible weather “pattern change”, and it’s likely to be cooler for us for the next two-three weeks. Monsoon will be there, so yes there will be more to tap into than say there was a month ago, but it won’t be the same as having the MJO in town.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will likely scale back but for now it's remaining staunch.
    Cracking little system this one, for summer:
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Negative titled trough pushing through the Bight on Tuesday suggests to me we're likely to be in for some 'shear-based' severe WX Monday to Wednesday, IMO.
    At least through the SE of the continent.
     
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  6. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    What is the go with BOMs 4 day chart just uploaded
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The surface low on Monday?
    Or the Thursday trough?
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday’s system:
     
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  9. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Both really we ,I've run Duffy and have not received anything from the scattered storms last Thursday. What is the go with the cold front in the southern ocean seems a big one with embedded fronts.
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has a nice little vapour train at 700hPa ( circa 2950 mts alt ) for Wed night- Thurs.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be a box full of sharp objects for Tasmania, but looks OK for Southern Vic.

    Lucky it 'aint winter, this would be a 30-50cm system, mid-August.


     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly different flavour to the rainfall we have seen over the past week, but nonetheless appreciated.

    EC has a dusting for the Cradle Mountain area on the charts.

    Certainly has a decent cold pool associated with it, for summer.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Levi's Tropical Tidbits website is down.
    3rd-4th time this month.
    Sounds like he's having server issues. Bugger.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going to be some serious winds whipping through the 40's and 50's over the next week.
    #zonal
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks to a massive global flux of momentum, via the strong MJO signal through to the extratropics.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps time to pay the Canadian model more attention this season:
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Canadians are withholding the Canuck upgrade over the Middle East Region until Iran pay up...
    ;)
     
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  18. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ve been riding my bike in the Monaro recently. In winter, there are certain places on roads where snow always accumulates and hangs around for a while. Usually where there is a fence perpendicular to the prevailing wind and a gully or ditch beside the road. The fence acts as a snow fence, and the snow drops into the gully. What I’ve noticed this week in a lot of those places is exactly the same phenomenon, but drifts of dust accumulating instead of snow:eek: Looks exactly the same, but different. Sad sign of how dry everything is:( Here is an example

     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Not to keen on the next node Friday/Saturday.

    Last Thursday was really bad here on the NSW South Coast. This chart looks to be a big threat.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Is that between Cootralantra and Buckenderra/Braemar Bay? Those hills look very familiar. Quite the snow country down that way in winter, with excellent SW exposure and plentiful non-NP land of 1,300+ m.

    Back in October 2019...ten-fold greener! Berridale was still very parched then, as usual.

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    close. My pic was on middlingbank road
     
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  22. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any views on fire weather next weekend? Not hearing much talk but looks like something to keep an eye on to me.

    Very warm days inland, westerly/north westerly winds by day for much of the week with strongest winds and hottest temps next Friday through Saturday sometime. Having a guernsey at Sentinel Hotspots and RFS burn areas Adaminaby complex has potential to make a run towards Cooma from Yaouk area and the east of Bombala fire is lined up a bit to well across unburnt country towards Eden. Hopefully winds stay down and any fires don't move to hard and fast.
     
  23. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    PLenty of that going on in the central west of NSW also. Good to know its happening down there also - even though theres no irrigated cotton and rice. I was blaming them until i saw your pic.
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    A few cms of snow is forecast for the Tasmanian mountains on the 3rd of February:


    Thanks to a decent deep cold node passing to the south of Tasmania.
     
  25. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Keeping an eye on alpine temps tomorrow. The 30C forecast for Perisher would be an all time record I believe.
     
  26. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh hot the next two days in snowy and surrounds. Current record high for Cooma is 39.5C from memory. Next two days forecast 39C so could give it a nudge too.
     
  27. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Forecast to hit 34° C here today, so it could give my Jan 2019 reading a run for its money.
     
  28. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    No I was there last year and it hit that record . You should be able to look it up.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Right you are. Which beat something like 29.6C a couple of years earlier (which is what I had in mind)
     
  31. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Well it made 30.2C today. New record
     
  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of the BOM climate stats entries are out of date. my My guess is they just don't have the funding to do the work properly anymore, and focus on what's critical in the short term.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s 2020.
    If the BoM doesn’t have a data management process for an AWS then it’s ‘mismanagement’, not ‘funding’.
    Data verification is the only ‘reasonable’ variable inhibiting the update IMO.
     
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  34. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Make that 30.3C at 5:19pm
     
  35. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Maxed-out at 36.1° C yesterday (1,265 m AMSL)—my highest reading on record!

    Cabramurra 34.0° C; 32.4° C previously.
     
  36. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Many stations around the Monaro and Snowies appear to have set new high minimums and Canberra. Cooma airport min 26.5C and went to 39.1C yesterday beating previous record of 38.2C from last summer. Cooma Visitors centre at 150m lower than airport site has current max record of 39.5C so assuming the visitors centre is a bit warmer, maybe 1C as you'd expect and it's a chance of topping 40C. Be interesting to see what verifies. Definitely a unique weekend for the Monaro combining persistent high temps over many hours and prospect of severe fires coming out onto northern Monaro today.
     
  37. Ultrasteez

    Ultrasteez A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure we got under 30 last night if so it would be a record here. So humid. Evap coolers don’t work in these conditions we had it going full bore all night and it was still 30 degs in the house this morning.
     
  38. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Cooma AP was 23.9 yesterday at the 9 am reset so that will go down as the minimum.

    This morning it was 31.9 at 9 am so tomorrow morning could give the record a shake.
     
  39. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahh ok, always forget about the 9am reset!
     
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  40. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lot of weather stations. A lot of data that needs to be checked - but I rarely if ever see a change in max/min record stats in recent years. I think it comes down to fundable priorities. I might even send them an email for a news article and see what they say.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, hard to work out why it wouldn’t get updated and a lot of contradiction in those historical summaries.
    Should at least be * if it’s not valid or not yet updated/verified etc!
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in Tasmania (at Mt Mawson)
     
  43. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    rain is coming and it will be flooding rain
     
  44. CR500

    CR500 Hard Yards

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    Yes, it looks like pretty much the entire eastern part of the country will be getting significant rain, on top of the northern monsoon and cyclone rainfall in Western Australia
     
  45. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    5 degrees with mist and passing low clouds.

    Bliss :thumbs:...



     
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  46. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Is that up near Charlottes? We are back after 6 weeks in Canada and 10 days in Hawaii. Sun Peaks was great, I want more of Big White and need to go to Silverstar.. Next Jan
     
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the significant (read: 2nd largest recorded) positive IOD along with an 'unfavourable' MJO and last years stratospheric warming effect, the SAM and who knows what else we dont understand well enough yet to attribute, pushed us into some pretty extreme hot temperatures in late 2019. The IOD fell down, the MJO moved into a favourable position for us and everything changed in Jan 2020, quite dramatically too. This pattern looks set to continue now that the monsoon is a proper monsoon this year (as opposed to the limp effort last year) into autumn and possibly winter. Lots of areas have received excellent rainfall figures (yes I know there is some still not getting the water they need, but it's better than it was). What an absolute contrast. Look out of our region and the IOD also affects East Africa and when the IOD was kicking our ass with a hairdryer they were getting buckets of rain, which has resulted in the locusts, of all things, going ballistic over there. The IOD may have shifted from favourable for them to get significant rainfall now, but they are still predicted to have excellent falls for the next few months, further increasing the locust problem.

    tl;dr - We learn something new every time. We're not experts. We barely know anything about all this. Chalk this one into the books as a new experience, new interactions, not only fitting in pieces of the climatology puzzle but we've bought some new pieces that werent there before to the puzzle too. I love it.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Beyond Australia, it's brought a pretty bad snow season for Japan, Europe and Eastern America.
    As usual it's all connected, we are benefitting a lot more from the shift in tropical momentum.

    The extratropical processes are a lot stronger for the NH, and they aren't in the right placement.
    Strong tropical zonal winds, and a slight meridional tone down south works to perfection for this type of pattern.
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What has? The IOD? The MJO? The monsoon/ITCZ? SAM? Yes they are all connected, but I wouldnt be saying x has caused y because it's never that simple. That's called climatology. Suggesting anything else is in the category of 'climate change caused the 2019-20 bushfires in AUS' shitpot.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The underlying +IOD base state, which is connected with the SSW last year. The failure of tropical momentum to really have a lasting effect to change the pattern in January, because of the underlying base state. The reality is that the atmosphere has been dominated by Indian Ocean forcing until quite recently.

    The reality is that yes it's a theory. But it is one that has explained the changes in patterns quite well. No we don't understand it well, that's why people have tried to come up with ways to try and understand the global climate.
     
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