Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Summer Weather Hotplate

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Jellybeans

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It’s not a bad look for the 26th-29th period.
212002FB-E454-4251-A385-9497D5344A82.png


But it probably marks the end of this round of precipitation and “interesting weather”.

The MJO is leaving the region over the next week or so.
And the AAO is looking like it will go negative again, which during summer means lots of ridging over Australia and drier conditions. Not sure how long it will continue, but it’s going to be a key indicator in terms of when we will see more interesting weather in the long long term.
73D9BA9A-11D9-4B47-8E71-6B775421C480.png
 

Vermillion

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There's been quite a bit of rainfall in NW WA and the central parts of the country in the past 2-3 weeks (although some places have missed out) and more extensive cloud cover than in the previous months (that lead to the really hot temperatures building up) so that should limit the amount of very hot air in the interior of the country, which might give us some respite from very hot temperatures in the SE. I dont see the monsoon trough moving too much though, so I dont know if the 'interesting' weather will leave us should the MJO move away and the AAO go negative.
 

Jellybeans

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There's been quite a bit of rainfall in NW WA and the central parts of the country in the past 2-3 weeks (although some places have missed out) and more extensive cloud cover than in the previous months (that lead to the really hot temperatures building up) so that should limit the amount of very hot air in the interior of the country, which might give us some respite from very hot temperatures in the SE. I dont see the monsoon trough moving too much though, so I dont know if the 'interesting' weather will leave us should the MJO move away and the AAO go negative.
Yeah I don’t think we will go back to very hot conditions quickly, but IMO less precipitation gradually. Probably not to the same dry levels as before. There obviously has been a sensible weather “pattern change”, and it’s likely to be cooler for us for the next two-three weeks. Monsoon will be there, so yes there will be more to tap into than say there was a month ago, but it won’t be the same as having the MJO in town.
 

POW Hungry

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Negative titled trough pushing through the Bight on Tuesday suggests to me we're likely to be in for some 'shear-based' severe WX Monday to Wednesday, IMO.
At least through the SE of the continent.
Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 8.30.18 am.png
 
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Vandans

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Both really we ,I've run Duffy and have not received anything from the scattered storms last Thursday. What is the go with the cold front in the southern ocean seems a big one with embedded fronts.
 

Jellybeans

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Could be a box full of sharp objects for Tasmania, but looks OK for Southern Vic.

Lucky it 'aint winter, this would be a 30-50cm system, mid-August.
Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 9.18.37 pm.png


Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 9.17.03 pm.png
Certainly different flavour to the rainfall we have seen over the past week, but nonetheless appreciated.

EC has a dusting for the Cradle Mountain area on the charts.

Certainly has a decent cold pool associated with it, for summer.
EE4BBDE6-8FF7-4D45-82F4-DED7039B60A4.png
 

robbo mcs

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I’ve been riding my bike in the Monaro recently. In winter, there are certain places on roads where snow always accumulates and hangs around for a while. Usually where there is a fence perpendicular to the prevailing wind and a gully or ditch beside the road. The fence acts as a snow fence, and the snow drops into the gully. What I’ve noticed this week in a lot of those places is exactly the same phenomenon, but drifts of dust accumulating instead of snow:eek: Looks exactly the same, but different. Sad sign of how dry everything is:( Here is an example

40119D76-1BD9-4291-9E26-CB87AAFD3DBB.jpeg
 

7wombathead

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Not to keen on the next node Friday/Saturday.

Last Thursday was really bad here on the NSW South Coast. This chart looks to be a big threat.

gem_z500_mslp_global_27.png
 
I’ve been riding my bike in the Monaro recently. In winter, there are certain places on roads where snow always accumulates and hangs around for a while. Usually where there is a fence perpendicular to the prevailing wind and a gully or ditch beside the road. The fence acts as a snow fence, and the snow drops into the gully. What I’ve noticed this week in a lot of those places is exactly the same phenomenon, but drifts of dust accumulating instead of snow:eek: Looks exactly the same, but different. Sad sign of how dry everything is:( Here is an example

40119D76-1BD9-4291-9E26-CB87AAFD3DBB.jpeg
Is that between Cootralantra and Buckenderra/Braemar Bay? Those hills look very familiar. Quite the snow country down that way in winter, with excellent SW exposure and plentiful non-NP land of 1,300+ m.

Back in October 2019...ten-fold greener! Berridale was still very parched then, as usual.

4YUu508.jpg
 
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robbo mcs

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Is that between Cootralantra and Buckenderra/Braemar Bay? Those hills look very familiar. Quite the snow country down that way in winter, with excellent SW exposure and plentiful non-NP land of 1,300+ m.

Back in October 2019...ten-fold greener! Berridale was still very parched then, as usual.

4YUu508.jpg

close. My pic was on middlingbank road
 

BlueHue

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Any views on fire weather next weekend? Not hearing much talk but looks like something to keep an eye on to me.

Very warm days inland, westerly/north westerly winds by day for much of the week with strongest winds and hottest temps next Friday through Saturday sometime. Having a guernsey at Sentinel Hotspots and RFS burn areas Adaminaby complex has potential to make a run towards Cooma from Yaouk area and the east of Bombala fire is lined up a bit to well across unburnt country towards Eden. Hopefully winds stay down and any fires don't move to hard and fast.
 

Snow Blowey

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I’ve been riding my bike in the Monaro recently. In winter, there are certain places on roads where snow always accumulates and hangs around for a while. Usually where there is a fence perpendicular to the prevailing wind and a gully or ditch beside the road. The fence acts as a snow fence, and the snow drops into the gully. What I’ve noticed this week in a lot of those places is exactly the same phenomenon, but drifts of dust accumulating instead of snow:eek: Looks exactly the same, but different. Sad sign of how dry everything is:( Here is an example

40119D76-1BD9-4291-9E26-CB87AAFD3DBB.jpeg


PLenty of that going on in the central west of NSW also. Good to know its happening down there also - even though theres no irrigated cotton and rice. I was blaming them until i saw your pic.
 

BlueHue

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Keeping an eye on alpine temps tomorrow. The 30C forecast for Perisher would be an all time record I believe.
Yeh hot the next two days in snowy and surrounds. Current record high for Cooma is 39.5C from memory. Next two days forecast 39C so could give it a nudge too.
 

POW Hungry

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Lots of the BOM climate stats entries are out of date. my My guess is they just don't have the funding to do the work properly anymore, and focus on what's critical in the short term.
It’s 2020.
If the BoM doesn’t have a data management process for an AWS then it’s ‘mismanagement’, not ‘funding’.
Data verification is the only ‘reasonable’ variable inhibiting the update IMO.
 
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BlueHue

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Many stations around the Monaro and Snowies appear to have set new high minimums and Canberra. Cooma airport min 26.5C and went to 39.1C yesterday beating previous record of 38.2C from last summer. Cooma Visitors centre at 150m lower than airport site has current max record of 39.5C so assuming the visitors centre is a bit warmer, maybe 1C as you'd expect and it's a chance of topping 40C. Be interesting to see what verifies. Definitely a unique weekend for the Monaro combining persistent high temps over many hours and prospect of severe fires coming out onto northern Monaro today.
 

Ultrasteez

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Many stations around the Monaro and Snowies appear to have set new high minimums and Canberra. Cooma airport min 26.5C and went to 39.1C yesterday beating previous record of 38.2C from last summer. Cooma Visitors centre at 150m lower than airport site has current max record of 39.5C so assuming the visitors centre is a bit warmer, maybe 1C as you'd expect and it's a chance of topping 40C. Be interesting to see what verifies. Definitely a unique weekend for the Monaro combining persistent high temps over many hours and prospect of severe fires coming out onto northern Monaro today.

Not sure we got under 30 last night if so it would be a record here. So humid. Evap coolers don’t work in these conditions we had it going full bore all night and it was still 30 degs in the house this morning.
 

rocketboy

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It’s 2020.
If the BoM doesn’t have a data management process for an AWS then it’s ‘mismanagement’, not ‘funding’.
Data verification is the only ‘reasonable’ variable inhibiting the update IMO.

Lot of weather stations. A lot of data that needs to be checked - but I rarely if ever see a change in max/min record stats in recent years. I think it comes down to fundable priorities. I might even send them an email for a news article and see what they say.
 
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POW Hungry

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Lot of weather stations. A lot of data that needs to be checked - but I rarely if ever see a change in max/min record stats in recent years. I think it comes down to fundable priorities. I might even send them an email for a news article and see what they say.
Yeah, hard to work out why it wouldn’t get updated and a lot of contradiction in those historical summaries.
Should at least be * if it’s not valid or not yet updated/verified etc!
 

CR500

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Yes, it looks like pretty much the entire eastern part of the country will be getting significant rain, on top of the northern monsoon and cyclone rainfall in Western Australia
 

Ret-ro

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5 degrees with mist and passing low clouds.

Bliss :thumbs:...

F60EFF05-BCC5-4F04-8D01-03D4AACA1030.jpeg


913D9588-AD14-4F49-ACE4-DADF7CE5B154.jpeg
Is that up near Charlottes? We are back after 6 weeks in Canada and 10 days in Hawaii. Sun Peaks was great, I want more of Big White and need to go to Silverstar.. Next Jan
 
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Vermillion

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So the significant (read: 2nd largest recorded) positive IOD along with an 'unfavourable' MJO and last years stratospheric warming effect, the SAM and who knows what else we dont understand well enough yet to attribute, pushed us into some pretty extreme hot temperatures in late 2019. The IOD fell down, the MJO moved into a favourable position for us and everything changed in Jan 2020, quite dramatically too. This pattern looks set to continue now that the monsoon is a proper monsoon this year (as opposed to the limp effort last year) into autumn and possibly winter. Lots of areas have received excellent rainfall figures (yes I know there is some still not getting the water they need, but it's better than it was). What an absolute contrast. Look out of our region and the IOD also affects East Africa and when the IOD was kicking our ass with a hairdryer they were getting buckets of rain, which has resulted in the locusts, of all things, going ballistic over there. The IOD may have shifted from favourable for them to get significant rainfall now, but they are still predicted to have excellent falls for the next few months, further increasing the locust problem.

tl;dr - We learn something new every time. We're not experts. We barely know anything about all this. Chalk this one into the books as a new experience, new interactions, not only fitting in pieces of the climatology puzzle but we've bought some new pieces that werent there before to the puzzle too. I love it.
 

Jellybeans

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So the significant (read: 2nd largest recorded) positive IOD along with an 'unfavourable' MJO and last years stratospheric warming effect, the SAM and who knows what else we dont understand well enough yet to attribute, pushed us into some pretty extreme hot temperatures in late 2019. The IOD fell down, the MJO moved into a favourable position for us and everything changed in Jan 2020, quite dramatically too. This pattern looks set to continue now that the monsoon is a proper monsoon this year (as opposed to the limp effort last year) into autumn and possibly winter. Lots of areas have received excellent rainfall figures (yes I know there is some still not getting the water they need, but it's better than it was). What an absolute contrast. Look out of our region and the IOD also affects East Africa and when the IOD was kicking our ass with a hairdryer they were getting buckets of rain, which has resulted in the locusts, of all things, going ballistic over there. The IOD may have shifted from favourable for them to get significant rainfall now, but they are still predicted to have excellent falls for the next few months, further increasing the locust problem.

tl;dr - We learn something new every time. We're not experts. We barely know anything about all this. Chalk this one into the books as a new experience, new interactions, not only fitting in pieces of the climatology puzzle but we've bought some new pieces that werent there before to the puzzle too. I love it.
Beyond Australia, it's brought a pretty bad snow season for Japan, Europe and Eastern America.
As usual it's all connected, we are benefitting a lot more from the shift in tropical momentum.

The extratropical processes are a lot stronger for the NH, and they aren't in the right placement.
Strong tropical zonal winds, and a slight meridional tone down south works to perfection for this type of pattern.
gltotaam.sig.90day.gif
 

Vermillion

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Beyond Australia, it's brought a pretty bad snow season for Japan, Europe and Eastern America.
As usual it's all connected, we are benefitting a lot more from the shift in tropical momentum.

The extratropical processes are a lot stronger for the NH, and they aren't in the right placement.
Strong tropical zonal winds, and a slight meridional tone down south works to perfection for this type of pattern.
gltotaam.sig.90day.gif

What has? The IOD? The MJO? The monsoon/ITCZ? SAM? Yes they are all connected, but I wouldnt be saying x has caused y because it's never that simple. That's called climatology. Suggesting anything else is in the category of 'climate change caused the 2019-20 bushfires in AUS' shitpot.
 

Jellybeans

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What has? The IOD? The MJO? The monsoon/ITCZ? SAM? Yes they are all connected, but I wouldnt be saying x has caused y because it's never that simple. That's called climatology. Suggesting anything else is in the category of 'climate change caused the 2019-20 bushfires in AUS' shitpot.
The underlying +IOD base state, which is connected with the SSW last year. The failure of tropical momentum to really have a lasting effect to change the pattern in January, because of the underlying base state. The reality is that the atmosphere has been dominated by Indian Ocean forcing until quite recently.

The reality is that yes it's a theory. But it is one that has explained the changes in patterns quite well. No we don't understand it well, that's why people have tried to come up with ways to try and understand the global climate.
 
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