March 9th-12th shows some potential towards proper troughing in the long term for SE of Australia. RRWT also shows signs of increased polar influence in the region during this period.
Thought I’d go for a walk out from Charlottes early this morning...... main range was copping strong winds and low cloud. Vis not good up high and not a lot better at village level. Around 12 degrees but wind chill made it cooler. Ended up redeploying to Thredbo. Was fine by the time I got there but still very windy.
*looks at the date* Are we about due for someone to start the 2020 ground cooling thread? (especially given that I am sitting in my house in Melbourne with the sniffles while wearing my mid-layer merino hiking top and a pair of trackpants)
I agree, and with this being a cooler summer compared to more recent ones i think we can start it a tad early, its already turning cold up in the bm's
Ground cooling thread starts 1st of March. Because it's absolutely absurd to suggest an Autumn WX pattern would establish itself until the calendar says so...
Autumn; a testing ground for model skill. March says hello to a strengthened Westerly flow (lower-lats) and virtually nil MJO influence. March is about to throw down the gauntlet for the models.
That’s not bad at all for us. You can see a tropical pass roughly in the first two weeks of March through our region.
That 200mb. K posted see's a big mjo signal in the indo that moves over the maritime. That's clear cut if the model verifys. Pretty much what has been pointed out in the cyclone thread a week ago.
The locusts in East Africa are going to go nuts (more than they already have) if those higher temps for the next few months comes true.
Here's GFS plot that thinks there will be a system below Indonesia. Convention across indo is well displayed. 200MB Velocities "lift" 850 mb displaying projected mjo kkw passage march.
Of course its ryans plot. Lol short memory. I pointed you to his models a few seasons ago when he was at weatherbell . And supplied you links to other cools vortex tools from cranky's hamster site you i sometimes see you post.. Agree sometimes RMMs is lost.
EC/CMC decent madden julian oscillation forecast for march. Kma giving it the push. GFS PLOT2 see's the same progression.
Yeah i cant get animation on the site. You see what appears to be start of it with the convective burst @25-26. Then just right key. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=india&variable=irro_wind Leave it here. look back in on the snow threads mid july.
Summer thread @POW_hungry? Meantime, after a day of stiff breezes and a few drops of wind driven rain it’s finally cooled down. Currently, it’s reasonably still albeit the BOM has renewed the severe weather warning for above 1200 ASL. A few pics from home an hour back - generally looking to the SW. Any wet weather has missed us and mostly passed by for now......
@OlCol starting to look sketchy for weather on the Main Range, for 7th/8th but clearing after that. Whilst I am not seeing huge accumulations, 5cm (maybe 10cm) of snow up high is possible at the moment. Gale force winds likely on the 7th.
The winds have been solid down here post Winter so it feels like BAU... This day last year. Was still skiing Guthrie’s into December.....
Baw Baw is expecting snow! Probably not enough to drop everything and wax up the op shop rock hoppers though. This is from BOM. Monday 7 December Summary Min 2 Max 7 Snow showers. Very windy. Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 80% West and South Gippsland area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 1400 metres, decreasing to above 1200 metres late in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 20. Tuesday 8 December Summary Min 0 Max 5 Snow shower or two. Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm Chance of any rain: 70%
The start of the next 48 hours or so of wetter weather has kicked in. I was up Thredbo this afternoon as it came through. Resorts have received 10 or so mm rain since. Radar looks ok for a few more drops going by that broad band. Leeward paddocks receiving a little moisture as well now. Interested to see how the cooler air comes through tomorrow....
That +1.1°C snow at Baw Baw is the highly supportive DGZ at work. Should come and go into tonight for the upper alpine. Tas has the best of the DGZ so I won’t be surprised to see some extraordinary (SISP) reports tonight and into tomorrow.
PM Bulletin: BoM Vic dropping the snow level from 1200m to 1100m tomorrow, in-line with what was suggested above. NSW going for 1200m early Tuesday. I personally wouldn't rule out the odd flurry in places like Moonbah, Jindabyne etc. for late-Monday night IMO. Here's 850mb 2300hrs tomorrow (Mon), via AXS-C 1400m sitting on circa +1ºC, with -26ºC @500mb. Drying out but still moisture progged.
Just noted the BOM upgrade on totals......of whatever falls! And looking from the verandah......building towards the SW and it’s coolish with the breeze.
Intermittent grauple showers at Charlottes Pass. 2 degrees. Plenty of runoff in the creeks post the rain over the last few days.
