Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Summer Weather Hotplate

March 9th-12th shows some potential towards proper troughing in the long term for SE of Australia.


RRWT also shows signs of increased polar influence in the region during this period.

 

Thought I’d go for a walk out from Charlottes early this morning...... main range was copping strong winds and low cloud. Vis not good up high and not a lot better at village level. Around 12 degrees but wind chill made it cooler.





Ended up redeploying to Thredbo. Was fine by the time I got there but still very windy.

 

*looks at the date*

Are we about due for someone to start the 2020 ground cooling thread? (especially given that I am sitting in my house in Melbourne with the sniffles while wearing my mid-layer merino hiking top and a pair of trackpants)

 

I agree, and with this being a cooler summer compared to more recent ones i think we can start it a tad early, its already turning cold up in the bm's

 

Ground cooling thread starts 1st of March. Because it's absolutely absurd to suggest an Autumn WX pattern would establish itself until the calendar says so...

 

Humm most of april is forecast to be running 2c above average.

 

Autumn; a testing ground for model skill.

March says hello to a strengthened Westerly flow (lower-lats) and virtually nil MJO influence. March is about to throw down the gauntlet for the models.

 

I reckon the GEFS is being a bit ambitious with that -AAO dip. Not exactly with the trend.

 

Rather dull .

 

There’s a few on the kool-aid, not just GEFS.
#autumn

 

That’s not bad at all for us.
You can see a tropical pass roughly in the first two weeks of March through our region.

 

That 200mb. K posted see's a big mjo signal in the indo that moves over the maritime. That's clear cut if the model verifys. Pretty much what has been pointed out in the cyclone thread a week ago.

 

The locusts in East Africa are going to go nuts (more than they already have) if those higher temps for the next few months comes true.

 

Here's GFS plot that thinks there will be a system below Indonesia. Convention across indo is well displayed.





200MB Velocities "lift"




850 mb displaying projected mjo kkw passage march.

 

Those are cool charts. But unless animated don't give proper picture. Says ryan.

 

They are Ryan's charts, right.
They certainly have served me better than the RMMs this season.

 

Of course its ryans plot. Lol short memory. I pointed you to his models a few seasons ago when he was at weatherbell . And supplied you links to other cools vortex tools from cranky's hamster site you i sometimes see you post..

Agree sometimes RMMs is lost.

 

Yeah I know, just making sure we are on the same page

 

EC/CMC decent madden julian oscillation forecast for march. Kma giving it the push.
GFS PLOT2 see's the same progression.

 

EC sides with it too, it just looks messy given the LR inclusion.

 

Yeah i cant get animation on the site. You see what appears to be start of it with the convective burst @25-26. Then just right key.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=india&variable=irro_wind









Leave it here. look back in on the snow threads mid july.

 

Cheers Summer...... was good but time to move on!



Can someone kick off the Autumn thread ......