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Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Summer Weather Hotplate

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 30, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    March 9th-12th shows some potential towards proper troughing in the long term for SE of Australia.


    RRWT also shows signs of increased polar influence in the region during this period.
     
  2. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thought I’d go for a walk out from Charlottes early this morning...... main range was copping strong winds and low cloud. Vis not good up high and not a lot better at village level. Around 12 degrees but wind chill made it cooler.





    Ended up redeploying to Thredbo. Was fine by the time I got there but still very windy.
     
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  3. nezumi

    nezumi One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    *looks at the date*

    Are we about due for someone to start the 2020 ground cooling thread? (especially given that I am sitting in my house in Melbourne with the sniffles while wearing my mid-layer merino hiking top and a pair of trackpants)
     
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  4. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I agree, and with this being a cooler summer compared to more recent ones i think we can start it a tad early, its already turning cold up in the bm's
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ground cooling thread starts 1st of March. Because it's absolutely absurd to suggest an Autumn WX pattern would establish itself until the calendar says so...
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Humm most of april is forecast to be running 2c above average.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Autumn; a testing ground for model skill.

    March says hello to a strengthened Westerly flow (lower-lats) and virtually nil MJO influence. March is about to throw down the gauntlet for the models.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the GEFS is being a bit ambitious with that -AAO dip. Not exactly with the trend.
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Rather dull .
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There’s a few on the kool-aid, not just GEFS.
    #autumn
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s not bad at all for us.
    You can see a tropical pass roughly in the first two weeks of March through our region.

     
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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That 200mb. K posted see's a big mjo signal in the indo that moves over the maritime. That's clear cut if the model verifys. Pretty much what has been pointed out in the cyclone thread a week ago.
     
    #212 stormkite2000, Feb 28, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The locusts in East Africa are going to go nuts (more than they already have) if those higher temps for the next few months comes true.
     
  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Here's GFS plot that thinks there will be a system below Indonesia. Convention across indo is well displayed.





    200MB Velocities "lift"




    850 mb displaying projected mjo kkw passage march.
     
  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Those are cool charts. But unless animated don't give proper picture. Says ryan.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    They are Ryan's charts, right.
    They certainly have served me better than the RMMs this season.
     
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Of course its ryans plot. Lol short memory. I pointed you to his models a few seasons ago when he was at weatherbell . And supplied you links to other cools vortex tools from cranky's hamster site you i sometimes see you post.;).

    Agree sometimes RMMs is lost.
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I know, just making sure we are on the same page :)
     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC/CMC decent madden julian oscillation forecast for march. Kma giving it the push.
    GFS PLOT2 see's the same progression.









     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC sides with it too, it just looks messy given the LR inclusion.
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    SMSkier and POW_hungry like this.
  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers Summer...... was good but time to move on!



    Can someone kick off the Autumn thread ;)......
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Approaching a week out now.
    This one is sticking on EC like a cheap saucepan.
    [​IMG]
     
  24. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    More of that please

     
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  25. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Summer thread @POW_hungry?

    Meantime, after a day of stiff breezes and a few drops of wind driven rain it’s finally cooled down.

    Currently, it’s reasonably still albeit the BOM has renewed the severe weather warning for above 1200 ASL.

    A few pics from home an hour back - generally looking to the SW. Any wet weather has missed us and mostly passed by for now......

     
  26. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Lovely to still see that stream so full.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Welcome to Summer gang.
    There's schnee on the horizon:
    [​IMG]
     
  28. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This evening.... a coolish breeze outdoors post a warm day.

     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @OlCol starting to look sketchy for weather on the Main Range, for 7th/8th but clearing after that.
    Whilst I am not seeing huge accumulations, 5cm (maybe 10cm) of snow up high is possible at the moment.
    Gale force winds likely on the 7th.
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The winds have been solid down here post Winter so it feels like BAU...:rolleyes:

    This day last year. Was still skiing Guthrie’s into December.....

     
  31. skyscooping

    skyscooping Hard Yards

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    Indeed cold enough for some outta season flakes in a neutral sam.
     
  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Baw Baw is expecting snow!
    Probably not enough to drop everything and wax up the op shop rock hoppers though.
    This is from BOM.
    Monday 7 December
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 7
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 1400 metres, decreasing to above 1200 metres late in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 20.

    Tuesday 8 December
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 5
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The start of the next 48 hours or so of wetter weather has kicked in. I was up Thredbo this afternoon as it came through. Resorts have received 10 or so mm rain since. Radar looks ok for a few more drops going by that broad band. Leeward paddocks receiving a little moisture as well now. Interested to see how the cooler air comes through tomorrow....

     
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  35. Myazma

    Myazma One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My front windows are flexing. +100kms at Thredbo top station
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow possible to 1100m in Vic's Alpine region on Monday night IMO.
     
  37. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like some high level snow has kicked off.......

     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should continue right through til tomorrow arvo too.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That +1.1°C snow at Baw Baw is the highly supportive DGZ at work. Should come and go into tonight for the upper alpine.
    Tas has the best of the DGZ so I won’t be surprised to see some extraordinary (SISP) reports tonight and into tomorrow.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    PM Bulletin: BoM Vic dropping the snow level from 1200m to 1100m tomorrow, in-line with what was suggested above.

    NSW going for 1200m early Tuesday.
    I personally wouldn't rule out the odd flurry in places like Moonbah, Jindabyne etc. for late-Monday night IMO.

    Here's 850mb 2300hrs tomorrow (Mon), via AXS-C
    1400m sitting on circa +1ºC, with -26ºC @500mb. Drying out but still moisture progged.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winds at Maatsuyker Island off SE Tas, at 6:56am today reached 128km/h, gusting to 145km/h.
     
  43. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just noted the BOM upgrade on totals......of whatever falls!



    And looking from the verandah......building towards the SW and it’s coolish with the breeze.


     
  44. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Baw Baw possibly in for a few cents imo
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing at Buller per IG.
     
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  46. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Intermittent grauple showers at Charlottes Pass. 2 degrees. Plenty of runoff in the creeks post the rain over the last few days.



     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Tas dropping snot to 800m tonight. I'd back that.
     
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  49. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    persistent rainfall in west gippsland and the heaters are on..
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo TS 8mm since 6pm in neg territory.
    Peri blanketed by Summer snow this evening: