Mega Thread Alpine and Southern Summer Weather Hotplate

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Mister Tee on XC Skis, Nov 30, 2019.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    March 9th-12th shows some potential towards proper troughing in the long term for SE of Australia.


    RRWT also shows signs of increased polar influence in the region during this period.
     
  2. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thought I’d go for a walk out from Charlottes early this morning...... main range was copping strong winds and low cloud. Vis not good up high and not a lot better at village level. Around 12 degrees but wind chill made it cooler.





    Ended up redeploying to Thredbo. Was fine by the time I got there but still very windy.
     
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  3. nezumi

    nezumi One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    *looks at the date*

    Are we about due for someone to start the 2020 ground cooling thread? (especially given that I am sitting in my house in Melbourne with the sniffles while wearing my mid-layer merino hiking top and a pair of trackpants)
     
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  4. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I agree, and with this being a cooler summer compared to more recent ones i think we can start it a tad early, its already turning cold up in the bm's
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ground cooling thread starts 1st of March. Because it's absolutely absurd to suggest an Autumn WX pattern would establish itself until the calendar says so...
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Humm most of april is forecast to be running 2c above average.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Autumn; a testing ground for model skill.

    March says hello to a strengthened Westerly flow (lower-lats) and virtually nil MJO influence. March is about to throw down the gauntlet for the models.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the GEFS is being a bit ambitious with that -AAO dip. Not exactly with the trend.
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Rather dull .
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There’s a few on the kool-aid, not just GEFS.
    #autumn
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s not bad at all for us.
    You can see a tropical pass roughly in the first two weeks of March through our region.

     
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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That 200mb. K posted see's a big mjo signal in the indo that moves over the maritime. That's clear cut if the model verifys. Pretty much what has been pointed out in the cyclone thread a week ago.
     
    #212 stormkite2000, Feb 28, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The locusts in East Africa are going to go nuts (more than they already have) if those higher temps for the next few months comes true.
     
  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Here's GFS plot that thinks there will be a system below Indonesia. Convention across indo is well displayed.





    200MB Velocities "lift"




    850 mb displaying projected mjo kkw passage march.
     
  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Those are cool charts. But unless animated don't give proper picture. Says ryan.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    They are Ryan's charts, right.
    They certainly have served me better than the RMMs this season.
     
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Of course its ryans plot. Lol short memory. I pointed you to his models a few seasons ago when he was at weatherbell . And supplied you links to other cools vortex tools from cranky's hamster site you i sometimes see you post.;).

    Agree sometimes RMMs is lost.
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I know, just making sure we are on the same page :)
     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC/CMC decent madden julian oscillation forecast for march. Kma giving it the push.
    GFS PLOT2 see's the same progression.









     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC sides with it too, it just looks messy given the LR inclusion.
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers Summer...... was good but time to move on!



    Can someone kick off the Autumn thread ;)......
     
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