QLD Another upper low and surface trough Qld - NSW 8 to 15 May 2022

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,866
19,841
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
More wetness to come when we have had a Niña summer so far.
Forecasts for notable rain amounts across a swathe of eastern Australia (QLD down into NSW)
Streams are already flowing
Below pics
(1) 8 May 00z GFS Moisture feed (integrated vapour transport) at forecast lead time 72 hours.
(2) 7 May 12z EC extreme forecast index for 5 day IVT (1.5 -6.5 days)

508A42C5-43E8-47BC-B807-CD41502C8614.png
E09099FC-00C6-43DB-B4CC-F6F7F477C92F.jpeg
 

Nature's Fury II

One of Us
Dec 25, 2021
448
3,311
213
West Brisbane
EC 00Z deterministic. Almost identical to 12z just a bit further south and east.

Presuming this comes off, it'll be very interesting to see how the catchments handle this. These falls are going to be mostly spread out over 5 days. If we only focus on the upper/mid river catchment areas a lot of SEQ could get up to 200 mm. Let's just say 40 mm/day. Yet 25-50 mm has been enough to trigger decent river rises so far. That would then be coming into lower catchments that are flash flooded with the much higher falls.

Worth noting the EC ensembles are now becoming quite different from the deterministic overall with far lesser amounts on average.

8.5.22 EC 00z.png
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,866
19,841
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Also worth remembering that even if decent rainfall amounts are spread out across multiple days in a row, the rain during the early part of that period would make the catchments increasingly wet by the time any rainfall during the later days occurs.
Yeah catchment wetness is a key factor for this event.
Below is BoM's water outlook, absolute root zone soil moisture level estimated with ARWRA-L.
I have deliberately shown absolute rather than relative because we already know current conditions and wetter than the climatological median with the summer-autumn we have just had.

1651993635393.png
 

Rays74

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 8, 2020
638
7,032
263
A nice day out this afternoon exploring in my 4wd until I got well and truely stuck.

Walked 2km, got help and got dragged out with a tractor and chain. Very lucky indeed!

This was between Ravensbourne and Murphy's Creek.

The soil is crusty on top but an inch down it's just extremely slippery clay and you just sink.
The local said there was an inch of rain yesterday.

You can see the heavily rutted sections.

IMG20220508160131.jpg
IMG20220508153010.jpg
IMG20220508143427.jpg
IMG20220508141741.jpg
IMG20220508140330.jpg
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Michael Hauber

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
850
5,056
263
”purple bubble” , ”rain bomb” LOL
and any other superlatives?

Before social media , things like this were just called a rain event wasn't it?

Pure click bait to drive up advertising revenue.

Screenshot_2022-05-09-07-53-40-03_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

A few decades ago extreme rain events were rarely or never forecast in advance and the common weather hype was 'cyclone bearing down on coast' whenever a cyclone showed any hint of movement towards the coast with an obligatory shot of a palm tree as they can look kind of wind blown even in relatively mild winds.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,122
47,718
563
Brisbane
1652048724013.png


1652048732525.png


1652048744873.png


A few graphics above. Note that with the MSLP probabilities one, it uses the control run of the ensembles and it can sometimes fail to properly capture any potential smaller lows due to their coarser resolution.

Some places on the Sunshine Coast have now received over 100mm so far since 9am yesterday. Top score so far is 154mm at Coolum West (edit: 171mm now as at 8am).
 

Nature's Fury II

One of Us
Dec 25, 2021
448
3,311
213
West Brisbane
SWW out.

Severe Weather Warning​

for HEAVY RAINFALL​

For people in Central West and parts of Gulf Country, Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, North West and Channel Country Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:46 am Monday, 9 May 2022.

Heavy rainfall developing about central Queensland from Tuesday morning.

1652058039852.png

Weather Situation: An unseasonably moist, northeasterly flow across northern Queensland will combine with a strengthening upper trough over central Australia, producing an extensive cloud band. As a result, widespread heavy rainfall is expected to develop across central and northwestern parts of the state from Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall is expected to shift east on Wednesday, increasing along the east coast.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the Central West and parts of the North West, Gulf Country, Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders and Channel Country districts from Tuesday morning. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 60 - 100mm are likely.

Locally INTENSE RAINFALL with embedded thunderstorms which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is also possible for the Central West and parts of the North West districts, with six-hourly rainfall totals up to 150mm possible.

A separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued if very dangerous thunderstorms with intense rainfall are detected.

See http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/ for the latest Flood Warnings and Flood Watches for Queensland.

Locations which may be affected include Longreach, Winton, Cloncurry, Isisford, Barcaldine, Hughenden, Richmond, Julia Creek and Blackall.
 

AnnerleyX1

Addicted
Jun 11, 2020
54
332
133
Good god the commercial media is really ticking me off even more than usual in this event. They are fully playing into the fact that people are a bit anxious about rain and floods after earlier in the year to drive clicks and viewers. Shouting 10 MONTHS RAIN from the rooftops without mentioning that that’s based off a town in the Central West that usually gets 20mm in May getting 200mm over the next week, rather than Brisbane getting 800mm or something.
 

Nic Bri

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
640
4,945
263
Mount Gravatt East
Good god the commercial media is really ticking me off even more than usual in this event. They are fully playing into the fact that people are a bit anxious about rain and floods after earlier in the year to drive clicks and viewers. Shouting 10 MONTHS RAIN from the rooftops without mentioning that that’s based off a town in the Central West that usually gets 20mm in May getting 200mm over the next week, rather than Brisbane getting 800mm or something.
Yeah I just heard an election ad by Campbell Newman on the radio carrying on about 8000 QLDers properties that are at risk of flooding. I couldn't help but think yep Campbo your Gov probably signed off on some of the development approvals for those flood prone properties when you were in power last time!
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,256
9,944
363
Yeppoon Queensland
18.8mm in Yeppoon and 23mm in Rocky

24.6 deg here feels like 26.5 deg 23 deg dp 90 pc humidity. The dew point usually at this time of year is 15.7 deg now 23 deg.

I had a look at Cairns and Townsville and they aren't much below average for rain or close to average.

Mackay is severely below average

Best thing would be if it rained from Townsville to Mackay to Yeppoon to Gladstone for days but it will be some short term relief with rain. Not enough maybe to make up 6 month deficits.

Arrgh sick of waiting lol better be worth it.. might just be a short dump in 48hrs of intense rain then gone. (Which is normal here i guess ) . I am sure it rained big amounts over more than a few days back in 2013-14.
 

Proudyno1

Hard Yards
Dec 29, 2021
47
448
83
Parkinson, QLD

First flood watch has been issued.

Initial Flood Watch for Western and Central Queensland, and the Central and North Tropical Queensland Coast​

Issued at 11:57 am EST on Monday 9 May 2022

Flood Watch Number: 1

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS LIKELY

An unseasonably moist, northeasterly flow across northern Queensland will combine with a strengthening upper trough over central Australia, producing an extensive cloud band. As a result, widespread heavy rainfall is expected to develop across central and northwestern parts of the state from Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall is expected to shift to the tropical east coast during Wednesday, moving southward along the east coast over the following couple of days. The locations of heaviest falls each day will be dependent on the development and movement of a surface trough and low pressure system near the coast.

Catchments across the Flood Watch are wet from rainfall over the past few weeks and in some cases flooding is ongoing.

Widespread rainfall is expected across the Flood Watch area. Areas of isolated heavy and intense rainfall are also possible.

Minor flooding is expected from Tuesday evening, with widespread moderate flooding likely from Tuesday night. Isolated Major flooding is likely with areas of heavy or intense rainfall.



Dangerous and life threatening flash flooding is possible across the flood watch area. This rainfall is also expected to lead to transport disruption.

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Settlement Creek
Nicholson River
Leichhardt River
Upper Flinders River
Lower Flinders River
Cloncurry River
Norman River
Gilbert River
Mitchell River
Staaten River
Mulgrave and Russell Rivers
Johnstone River
Tully River
Murray River
Herbert River
Black River
Ross and Bohle Rivers
Haughton River
Belyando and Suttor Rivers to Burdekin Falls Dam
Cape River to Burdekin Falls Dam
Burdekin River to Burdekin Falls Dam
Burdekin River downstream of Burdekin Falls Dam
Wallam and Mungallala Creeks
Warrego River (QLD)
Paroo River (QLD)
Bulloo River (QLD)
Barcoo River
Thomson River
Cooper Creek
Diamantina River
Georgina River and Eyre Creek


See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood and cyclone products for Queensland.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,122
47,718
563
Brisbane
1652072205661.png


A set of slightly more zoomed in daily breakdowns from EC (12z run).

Coolum West has come in with 212mm over the last 24hrs up to now.

Winds in SEQ may also become gusty from time to time this week, more-so near the coast and in exposed areas, or if there’s any breaks in steadier rain and thick cloud cover
Uncertainty about wind strengths grows towards the end of the week depending on how any surface features behave.

A rather cool 17.6C at midday in Brisbane today with dark overcast skies continuing and some on-and-off rain around. It was still 17.3C at 3pm. Meanwhile, it was 13.6C at midday in Toowoomba.
 

Slovenski

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 7, 2019
1,390
8,765
363
I dunno about you but i love me a tropical torpedo with a side of rain bomb.

Why are we weaponizing the weather? :oops: I guess we are at war fighting climate change?
Seems to be a destructive mindset in the medija happening atm with all the stuff thats going on.
Cold, cloudy day with some frequent dripping, bring on that tropical torpedo dropping some rainbombs as we head for our bunkers filled with beer, wine & fine food LOL
 

Nature's Fury II

One of Us
Dec 25, 2021
448
3,311
213
West Brisbane
Can anyone confirm the details of the dam releases? I understand releases from Somerset into Wivenhoe started yesterday and now apparently some releases from Wivenhoe itself today? Not surprised considering forecasts are still holding for significant falls over SEQ.

All models showing further rainfall (100-150+ mm) for SEQ. Interestingly SEQ might even get the highest falls out of all of Qld for this event.

EC deterministic is toward the upper end of the ensemble average. Many of the EC ensembles keep falls further north or have much lower amounts around SEQ. However, it could be that the lower resolution of the ensembles is not factoring in orographic lift and small-scale features/activity as well as the higher-res deterministic so it shouldn't be dismissed at this point.

9.5.22 EC 00z.png
9.5.22 GFS 00z.png
9.5.22 ACC 00z.png
9.5.22 ICON 00z.png
9.5.22 UK 00z.png
9.5.22 GEM 00z.png
 

Nature's Fury II

One of Us
Dec 25, 2021
448
3,311
213
West Brisbane
Interesting quote from Anthony Cornelius:

The Sunshine Coast has already seen falls of nearly 200mm in the last 24 hours, and this is going to be one of the wetter areas for this week. Unfortunately even for SE QLD, I think it's not if it will flood but what extent the flooding will be. I'm hoping that most of the heaviest rain will be further north, but even 100-200mm over the period of 4-5 days in the state the catchments are in, is likely to bring fairly extensive minor to moderate flooding. As to whether it's worse than this, we'll have to wait and see what happens with the main concern Thu/Fri for a potential trough/low tracking down the coastline - as this would be a worse scenario. If it doesn't then this should be more a "nuisance" event with more localised issues for SE QLD (Sunshine Coast may experience greater impacts though).
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,866
19,841
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Can anyone confirm the details of the dam releases? I understand releases from Somerset into Wivenhoe started yesterday and now apparently some releases from Wivenhoe itself today? Not surprised considering forecasts are still holding for significant falls over SEQ.
@Nature's Fury II minor releases have been occurring from Somerset and Wivenhoe since Friday. They are just to hold levels. Wivenhoe tailwater level gauge below. Note this gauge is not reliable when substantial flows occur in Lockyer or when high flows occur out of Wivenhoe.
1652086459819.png
 

Slovenski

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 7, 2019
1,390
8,765
363
@Nature's Fury II minor releases have been occurring from Somerset and Wivenhoe since Friday. They are just to hold levels. Wivenhoe tailwater level gauge below. Note this gauge is not reliable when substantial flows occur in Lockyer or when high flows occur out of Wivenhoe.
1652086459819.png
Not at all comfortable with this.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,866
19,841
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Interesting quote from Anthony Cornelius:

The Sunshine Coast has already seen falls of nearly 200mm in the last 24 hours, and this is going to be one of the wetter areas for this week. Unfortunately even for SE QLD, I think it's not if it will flood but what extent the flooding will be. I'm hoping that most of the heaviest rain will be further north, but even 100-200mm over the period of 4-5 days in the state the catchments are in, is likely to bring fairly extensive minor to moderate flooding. As to whether it's worse than this, we'll have to wait and see what happens with the main concern Thu/Fri for a potential trough/low tracking down the coastline - as this would be a worse scenario. If it doesn't then this should be more a "nuisance" event with more localised issues for SE QLD (Sunshine Coast may experience greater impacts though).
I partially agree with that but it still depends on intensities.
Say if 200mm occurs 4 days then average intensity is 2mm/hour. Catchments can absorb that even if they are saturated. It depends on number of hours with more than say 10 mm/hr and how much higher than 10mm/hr the peak intensity is.
 

Slovenski

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 7, 2019
1,390
8,765
363
I partially agree with that but it still depends on intensities.
Say if 200mm occurs 4 days then average intensity is 2mm/hour. Catchments can absorb that even if they are saturated. It depends on number of hours with more than say 10 mm/hr and how much higher than 10mm/hr the peak intensity is.
Yes but systems are likely to move poleward, South.
The uncertainty will definitely cause some grief.
A friend's daughter has already made the wise decision to move away from the frequently flooded part of Lockyer. Good on her. Feel so sorry about that family and many others in that situation.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,866
19,841
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
A friend's daughter has already made the wise decision to move away from the frequently flooded part of Lockyer. Good on her. Feel so sorry about that family and many others in that situation.
sensible
Yes but systems are likely to move poleward, South.
I’d say systems are likely to move in a direction dictated by the synoptics.
Still quite a bit uncertainty for beyond Thursday. Need the models to settle more on what the upper low feature may do.

2351D5A3-518D-40E8-8186-CE5B136E0745.gif
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass