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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Snow Blowey, Apr 20, 2008.
Looking nice on the 7day forecast:
However I should note the forum doesn't seem to like image URL's with a query string in them, ie the ?t=... bit after the filename, this should work with that trimmed:
Wow...a metre of snow on the western arthurs and 30cm at Baw Baw in that forecast.....
Watching keenly...see a bit of a low in the Tasman for it to meet up with. Been watching that chart a while and also the Indian Ocean to see the strength of the highs...thought there was a bit of a break coming. Even the BOM 4 day forecast sees a 975 hpa low a few days before, which can't be a bad sign. Wait and see..
1 metre of snow........I'd like to see that!
Holy crap.. .just as well we got the winter delivery of firewood last weekend!
omg this is gonna be amazing... such a pity I'm not near the mountains yet... but I wanna see plenty of pics guys =D
yep i'll bet the resort managers and snow towns will be rubbing there hands with glee .A great marketing opportunity and good on em after the fires and 06 season i hope its a great season .the cam watchers will be happy for days looking at white if it comes off too.
At last a glimmer of hope for se oz farmers too I could not believe how dry taz was when i was there at easter .Hobart was like armegeddon day early that week with 38 degrees and howling winds ,scary
Long way to go yet ...
Agreed, a bit early to get excited.
nah....the way things have gone in the last few years we may as well have hope....
bloody oath it is. sheesh you'd think it was already happening.
if its like that at +72 then it may happen.
Settle petels that chart will change a lot in the next week . Still its postive compared to big highs everywhere..
Gwad... I hope it snows! I am taking a team of 4wd'rs up around Walhalla, Mt Skene area...
Not being a weather guru... what's the latest guys?
Well I for one would like some nice weather on the long weekend , since I will be camped out on the Main Range
That you'll need to come back in spring to dig them out? Not looking that good currently, but good chance something will come down around then, mostly a question of how much.
I've seen it snow 2 feet on Anzac Day - in Colorado!
I'm with Kaz! I'd love snow, but only from Sunday onwards please!!
We had that here yesterday, unfortunantly a week early.
looks good for sunday
...if you're a duck in Mount Gambier...
Monday's (28th) GFS looks even better on this afternoons run.
Waiting for the inevitable downgrade.
If this keeps up it's going to be something! Sunday night and into Monday will be the business end of the deal. Last model I looked at had between 15-30mm precip over most of vic and southern NSW. Interesting to see 528 thickness over Adelaide.
looks like baw baw mite cop a flogging?
Doesn't look like a Baw Baw type of system. Most of the weather looks to be coming from the NW/W.
Perhaps later on Monday or Tuesday when it swings to the south.
I think you might have to rethink those plans. It won't be a nice weekend to be up there
I'm excited by the latest GFS run. Ski's may be coming out alot earlier than expected!
4 day chart is looking the goods...high retracting west. I wonder how much that little low last week off WA has helped set this up?
It's a way out, but if this comes off.....
that is also a pretty picture
Shame we have to wait till Monday...
Has certainly intensified... but still 6 days out
It's the kind of system which will impact northern resorts mostly, particularly Hotham. Hotham's best recorded snowfalls head from a NNW aspect.
Contrary to popular sentiments on this thread, we will not get a season-opening fall from this. It's bloody APRIL...
This looks very good for some very decent rain for Vic, and for the Alps Saturday into Sunday. Looks like there will be some snow on the tail of it, but at the moment it looks like a majority of this moisture initially to be of the 'a few degrees too warm for snow' sort for all but perhaps the very highest parts of the alps.
That said it could still be a 10-20cm fall from later Sunday into Monday going on recent GFS data, but we are really looking a looooooong way out for this (It's what we do this time of year I suppose).
Only just shown up on the experimental seven day forecast :
Sat 26/04/2008 22mm rain Min 2, Max 3 2150m Strong to Gale, NW
Sun 27/04/2008 22mm rain, 7cm Snow Min -5, Max 2 1050m Storm to Light to Strong, NW/SW/W
Dude take a chill pill. No one thinks the season is going to start this weekend, were just happy
And on to more pressing matters - agree yes Hotham / Falls will benefit more from this current model.
agreed custard on both fronts (har har)...lets see...if we only get a few of these a year i too would prefer it a month later, but thats out of my control so i am happy just to sit here and watch the action
Unisys is more interested today than yesterday.
Though GFS has backed off on the latest.
Ebbs and flows hey.
Looks kind of similar to a system we had in early June last year-Bought bucket loads of snow to Jindabyne and Berridale caused mayhem on the roads. I think the blokes at Perisher are Sh#*%$$G themselves cause from what I have heard the new snowmaking is still not ready and really needs to be done before it gets snowy.
Snow is good at any time regardless if it quantifies lift openings or not. I'll be skiing in May....and taking my son on a snow chase maybe sunday.
Well they had better get a lot of work done this week!
Not that I think this snow will stay on the ground, but it will definitely put them back a few days.
GFS may have backed off in terms of amount of precipitation over the whole period, but it has got a whole lot colder for the same time period. Now is predicting it will be cold enough for the most part, with not much lead up rain, and 10-20cm over Sunday and Monday.
Of course this is still a long way out. At the end of the day if we get a few cm on the ground around the resorts, and some cool weather, it will be very nice to see, but perhaps not much more than that except for a few lucky punters that may be able to head out on their rock hoppers.
still looks great on this mornings run for Sunday
There seems to be a decent amount of pre frontal in it before things get down to business though.
Snow late Sunday & through to Monday by the looks of things.
It'll look pretty, but it won't stick.
BOM latest 4 day run looking awesome.....
Latest GFS update is drool inspiring
Still 144 out though so we can only hope this comes off. Either way I think it's going to be a pretty significant weather event for the south east
beat me to it PD!
looks nice doesn't it!
Reckon some will stick up on the main range....seems hardly any instance of hot weather to follow. Any decline in regional temps at any stage is good and increases chances of staying down given that some of this snow will be on ground going into May and we are yet to see what next month holds. Some say they do not care for snow now....me, anytime, and this is leading into the season so anything is good. Does Whistler not care utnil a week before opening hoping their bare ground will become white in time?
Up there mid to late May last season and what was above 1900m stuck around and kept things cold....that is what I want to see here.
If the current forecast scenario eventuates there will be skiable snow in plenty of places, especially out on the main range. And it should stick stick through till winter in plenty of places. Unfortunately i'd say the charlotte pass road will close unless they plough it.
Yeah follow up mid next week and again 9th-13th ish of may.
So it should stick around.
At least it will cool the ground. (Runs away.....).
ah....but does it cool the ground? Last week during my walk to Kosci I pondered this as I viewd the many grasses and shrubs that abound upon the alps....particularly in ski resorts.
Up top....there is short grass so this cool the ground may apply
In the Basin, there is some longer growth
But down lower, there is shrubbery (for those Monty Python fans)
Considering the Pygmy Possum often lives beneath the snow...I am thinking, there also often is room for it beneath the snow....amongst the shrubbery.
Sure there are grassy runs in that pic above....but for so many, this is not the case...go to PB in summer and it is difficult to see them.
So, by how much is our ground cooled anyway. I am thinking this had very little effect until we are in to mid season wher by there, sufficient cold is generated to hold snow.