Predictions April 25-26 duster

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Apr 23, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I guess we should put something up for this.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Looks like rain over Victoria for most of the week; lightish for most days, Tuesday early AM will be quite damp in Melbourne

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Not a huge amount of moisture in this system
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    IMO, I think there will be a trough with some good precipitation over Monday into early Tuesday morning in Victoria. Models agree on that.

    From Late Tuesday Morning, a proper cold front should push through the state with snow included. GFS and EC show snow beginning from some point Tuesday Evening. I'd say 5-10cm based off current charts. Baw Baw and Lake Mountain should get favourable conditions due to a S-SW flow.

    I would say the Alps would get freezing levels of about 1100-1200m. Tasmania should get freezing levels of about 900m. The core of this system over Bass Strait/Southern Vic should get 500mb temps of -30 degrees with the Alps getting 500mb temps of -26/-28. So overall a pretty cold system for Late April. Precipitation isn't amazing, but should be enough for a nice layer of snow on the ground at the resorts.

    It should stay cool until Thursday, but the precipitation will be long gone by then.
    [​IMG]
    00z GFS freezing levels

    [​IMG]
    00z EC 850mb Temps

    [​IMG]
    EC Snow Accumulation for next 5 days.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS has the 534 line right up to Baw Baw on Wednesday.
    I could be one of those early systems that dumps 20cm+ at the little mountain. For those that want an early slide there, it might be worth watching.
    Tasmania, of course, will get a good dose.
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Apr 23, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah definitely looks like a Baw Baw and Lake Mountain kind of system (I'm sure @teckel and the BB crew would be happy)
     
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  7. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Why does it always want to snow on the day I have to visit my mother? :(
     
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  8. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    Nice to see the 540 line pushing up so early in 'the season'.
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It has already done it twice this season.
     
    #9 Jellybeans1000, Apr 23, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
  10. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    A rather significant event for April IMO. Really cold 700HPa temps (-12c) on Wednesday gets my attention.
     
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  11. piolet

    piolet Old And Crusty
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    Something brewing up by darwhine?
     
  12. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas Addicted Member
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    BOM Thredbo forecast is saying snow to 1000m, up to 30mm of precip

    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

    Seems like ACCESS, EC and GFS have fallen somewhat into line on this one. Position of the 540 line differs slightly, as do the moisture levels.

    GFS snow forecast is.... excited.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    1000-1100m is looking good for the Alps.
    5-15cm for the big resorts, perhaps 20cm for Baw Baw if we get that southernly flow.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    For BB it'll depend on when the front crosses and lines up the SW flow to get the shower line pumping at them. If they get a sustained line of showers coming off King Island they could well get 20cents. I think less for other resorts though. It will be nice and cool though, but we're still 6 weeks too early for anything meaningful for the snow season, so personally I would rather a FL of 2000m and 50mm of rain vs. FL 1100m and 10-20cm snow.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO GFS is a bit over the top.
    As it usually is.
     
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  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    You mean with FLs or Snowfall?
    [​IMG]
    10cm at BB and 5cm for the rest of the Alps. Reflects what EC is saying. Tassie has 25cm which is similar to EC.
    [​IMG]
    GFS FLs are in line with EC, a bit higher than the BOM forecast actually.
    At this 3 day range, the models aren't going to be unclear. But I agree GFS can be over the top beyond 5 days.
     
    #16 Jellybeans1000, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017
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  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    * ;) fixt.

    * [​IMG]
     
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  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah sorry I included the snow from May 1-3.
     
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Life's like that sometimes.
    At least mine is !!!
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    [​IMG]

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in parts of the
    North Central and
    North East Forecast Districts.
    Issued at 11:02 am Monday, 24 April 2017.
    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A band of rain with possible thunderstorms is forecast to move across the State later today and during Tuesday morning, with the heaviest falls expected for the State's northeast. Rain is expected to ease to showers later on Tuesday morning as the cloud band contracts eastward and clears.
    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the North East district and adjacent parts of the North Central district, particularly about elevated areas.
    Rain is forecast in the North Central district from late Monday night, extending to the North East early on Tuesday morning. Rain should start to ease from the west later on Tuesday morning, clearing the State in the afternoon. 24-hour totals of 20-40mm are forecast with peak totals of 60mm, especially about the ranges and near thunderstorms.
    Locations which may be affected include Corryong, Bright, Mansfield, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Mt Buller.
    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Don't walk, ride or drive through flood water;
    * Keep clear of creeks and storm drains;
    * Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks;
    * Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads;
     
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  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Time for an observations thread? As the trough is entering Western Victoria.
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Clear separation between precip and subsidence here IMO. Sub 5-10cm for the resorts up high, I think. A fizzer is imminent. Although rain totals for tomorrow look good.
     
  24. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    The satellite image looks good for good few cm IMO
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Classic ana-front IMO. Cold dry air is too little, too late.
    Snow-bearing cold pool doesn't arrive until 7-8am tomorrow according to GFS 00Z.
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    This is the GFS Precip forecast for the time under the cold pool of air. Baw Baw should get 10cm and the rest of the Alps 5cm IMO.

    As for the low itself, it should move over Wednesday and Thursday further east in the Tasman and join back into the Antarctic circulation. Models also show rapid intensification of the low overnight, as it gets closer to NZ. This is the UKMO model track.
    [​IMG]
     
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  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    The NAVGEM track in the Tasman is further north, not that it is much compared to the UKMO's model.
     
  30. Astro666

    Astro666 Active Member
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    There be some speckle in there.

     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    And as progged & verified by current GFS (7pm tonight) she's as dry as in the Bight...
    [​IMG]
     
    #32 POW_hungry, Apr 25, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Source: BOM
    fizz.
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    TBH I think it was always going to be 5-10cm, Baw Baw was the only possibility to go beyond that.
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    For sure.
    Tasmania might be better too.
    It's not looking quite as cold as before, Baw Baw temps will be touch and go when the bulk of the moisture hits.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    IMO 5-10cm is really pushing it. Tassie shadow, low moisture, cooler air due mid-morning. dusting to a coupla cents at best, I think.
     
    #36 POW_hungry, Apr 25, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017