Are the Mount Sinabung eruptions in 2019 ..affecting our weather?

Discussion in 'General & World' started by crikey, Jul 13, 2019.

  1. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    There have been eruptions this year
    7th May, 11th May, 25th May . 9th June 2019 a BIG ONE


    The eruption in June caught the attention of climate researchers

    Andrew Dessler
    Climate scientist at Texas A&M; author of Introduction to Modern Climate Change (http://www.andrewdessler.com )posted on twitter

    If this gets into the stratosphere and we get a big radiative perturbation to the planet's energy balance, it will be a great chance to test our understanding of the climate system.

    https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1137807610202210306 …

    #Sinabung volcano in North Sumatra, #Indonesia ..9th of June.
    .....................



    https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

    https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=261080&vtab=Weekly
    ..................
    So l thought it would be a good opportunity to discuss this.
    Any current research underway?.and perhaps.past research.

    I am particularly interested in learning about the dynamical impacts of volcanoes on our southern hemisphere weather.
    So look forward to your comments and input and related www links
     
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  2. Richard

    Richard Maintenance Dept Administrator

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    Great thread starter Crikey.

    I’m sure @Sandy @trappers and others will likely chime in. I won’t because I only know 80’s music and Internet stuff and nothing about volcanoes.
     
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  3. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The eruption reached about 12000m... is that enough to get into the stratosphere that close to the equator?
     
  4. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends on the aerosols ejected, proximity to the equator is helpful
     
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  5. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Early Days

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    I would say not.... the tropopause is much higher than that...around 18000 metres at the equator. Eruptions at locations further from the equator have the better chance.
     
  7. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats ok. Neither do l know anything about volcanoes.The learning curve begins today:nerd::emoji_eyeglasses::emoji_gear::emoji_bulb::emoji_tools::emoji_chart_with_upwards_trend::emoji_arrows_clockwise::blb:
     
  8. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That was my understanding too
     
  9. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ulawan had a decent, if short lived, go recently too, Sinabung has been churning slowly for some time now, amongst others.
     
  10. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    quote from a monitoring site
    'The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin is warning of a thick ash plume rising to a lofty 55,000 feet (16.7 km)

    particulates ejected to altitudes above 32,800 feet (10 km), and into the stratosphere, have a direct cooling effect on the planet.'

    However a caveat here. This site is dedicated to monitoring global cooling. So need some confirmation crom a number of other sources
    source
    https://electroverse.net/sinabung-s...feet-16-7-km-solar-connection-cooling-effect/
     
  12. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just moving some pertinent posts from there to here

    quote 'sandy'
    It's well known that the June 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo(Philippines) had a global impact on climate.(cooling)

    It hoisted around 5 cubic km of ash into the atmosphere, up to 40km high, and more importantly, about 15 million tonnes of SO2 (sulfur dioxide), which caused most of the cooling. The initial cooling effects were within three weeks, and lasted more than a year.
    It was the biggest volcanic cooling event since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. The 1815 eruption was Tambora, also in Indonesia

    #14 Sandy, Apr 26, 2015
    and
    Doesn't Sulphur content in the ash have something to do with degree of affect on weather?
    Sulfur dioxide (gas) produced along with ash reflects sunlight high up in the atmosphere..
     
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  13. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    So what's the optimum volcano to set off and timing for our skiing benefit?
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe September, >5cubic km of ash and > 10M tonnes of SO2.
    - Pinatubo 10cubic km of ash and 17M tonnes of SO2
     
  15. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have only just started my inquiry @piolet
    but thanks for the question , it gets the cogs turning.

    I went back to the records for Pinatuba 1991......Noting it was a NH eruption
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century

    and
    l overlayed some spencer creek snow depth heights
    https://www.sbs.com.au/interactive/2015/kosciuszko-snow-depth/

    The result is interesting enough that l am encouraged to pursue this correlation further

    1990 , 1991 and 1992 were epic years
    . Over 2.5 m

    I suspect it could be an accumulation from multiple volcanoes over a short time period rather than just one 'boom'
    but also it could be from some other climate cor forcing,or even a 'combo'
     
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  16. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are better served by a southern indo volcano vs a Philippino one? Or that Chilean one?
     
  17. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought that NH and SH atmospheric circulations were mostly independent.
    So you would expect NH volcanoes to affect NH and SH volcanoes to affect the SH.
    However ..
    If the volcanic heat , gas and particulates get into the stratosphere.. l don't know if there are equatorial boundaries in the stratosphere like for instance the Inter tropical convergence zone at the surface troposphere layer.
    So .wind streams loaded with volcanic output .crossing from NH to SH may not be a problem.
    There are Hadley cells on either side of the equator at troposphere layer

    I will check ACCESS G tomorrow and investigate that. Thanks
    I am out of puff..today
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
     
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  18. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    A line of inquiry

    volcanic feedback loop
     
  20. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Early Days

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    Mentions the distribution of ash via the jets so I presume he's not claiming there has been significant volcanic discharge into the stratosphere though it's hard to say from the scanty outline given. I'd say the effect he's observed and the cause he attributes it to, both need corroboration - until then....
     
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  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A number of points:
    Pinatubo was a NH volcano, but the ash and SO2 covered the whole globe:
    This false colour shows the “Aerosol optical depth”, which is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere, the result of the June 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. You can see the effects became global after just 2 months, and persisted for at least 3 years. It decreased the global temperature by 0.6 degrees
    [​IMG]

    1990 Aussie snow season was NOT affected by Pintubo, for obvious reasons.
     
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  22. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [mod note - keep it civil]

    Avoid.
     
  23. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Early Days

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  24. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    But... there have been ongoing tropical eruptions for some time now. So maybe the culmination of the eruptions as affected the upper temp? by a small amount. It would only take a small amount to alter temp.
     
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  25. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    They have mostly been low-level - sub 10,000'
    Ulawan is the only high (ish) level recently I think
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The number of small eruptions is mostly quite constant, no different to any other year(s)

    Cumulative eruptions don't have the same effect as one very large one. The main reason is that large eruptions have more energy, and that energy hoists ash and SO2 much higher into the atmosphere... if substantial amounts of SO2 hits the stratosphere, it cools the whole planet.

    For example, when you drive in summer time, you probably accumulate maybe one kg of bugs on your windshield over a couple of months..... but if you hit a 1kg bird at 100kph, it will break your windscreen!! ;)
     
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  27. #28 User has resigned, Jul 15, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 15, 2019
  28. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes..,Electoverse and iceagenow are both global cooling investigators. So a strong bias there.
    Might be a good idea to get a list of recent big volcanic eruptions for the last couple of years.
    He suggests accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up ..
    Any links regarding recent volcanic eruptions and consequences if any to the climate ...
    dialogue from reputable' sources
    I would like to hear from who..?????
     
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please stay on topic. This is about volcanic eruptions affecting weather / climate.

    These posts would be better in this thread:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-heaviest-snow-australia-has-ever-seen.78760/#post-3349506
     
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  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not sure "accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up" makes sense in the longer term geological sense.
    Continents drift... rifts happen, and plates subduct, causing earthquakes and volcanos. In other words, something is always happening.

    For example, the 2011 M9.0 earthquake moved Japan 4m closer to North America, because the pressure built up by the Pacific plate subducting under Japan was released, and Japan rode over the top.
    But what it also does is release pressure in a subduction zone that holds magma well below the surface. Since then, Japan has experienced an increase in volcanic activity:
    [​IMG]

    The same happened with the M9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile 1960. also a subduction zone and lots of volcanic eruptions afterwards.
     
  31. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gee. That is a fabulous resource you have posted there @Sandy.
    I am just trying to understand the colour scheme presented there on those OPTICAL DEPTH diagrams and what happened before and after the Pinatuba eruption.
    It would be a very handy resource to look at the current state of affairs regarding recent volcanic eruptions and 'optical depth' in 2019
    Could you provide a link to your source. ..,
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From NASA:
    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo
     
  33. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No need to delete. Just pointing you (and others) to a better place to post it.
     
  35. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for your comments 'guys'.,There is heaps there to comment on or research. I will nibble away at each post in time.
    I haven't thrown the towel in.
    I am busy with the polar vortex thread atm:emoji_bell::emoji_back:
     
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  36. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Not so , I read 35000ft plus for 3 of them and all in the tropics as they need to be to assist our snow

    I have an article somewhere of a study around 2012-14 of Oz snow affected by volcanoes , it went through the actual years and explained it in detail , will keep looking

    Crikey this May be the article rebirthed

    http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/

    I have seen photos of buried chairs and tbar uplinks with snow 10 ft high on each side , they kept digging them out ..

    I cannot find thebpics now , I am sure they are in a property in Perisher
     
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  37. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which/when?
     
  38. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    oh good.,I am not alone here thinking that volcanic eruptions can engage with climate drivers
    Thanks for your support.
     
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  39. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is no doubt that some types of volcanism have temporary global climatic effects.
    Agung
    El Chichon
    And
    Pinatubo
    All demonstrably had a cooling influence.
    Tambora anecdotally did.
    By contrast St Helens didn"t. Different bang and composition.
    Novarupta in 1912 almost certainly severely and temporarily disrupted the climate as well, but being high latitude the effect was limited to the NH, and was a very different set of climate mechanics to the near equatorial eruptions.
     
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  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In my view, the main problem is that the Aussie snowfall is so variable and relatively low, and any single normal volcanic effect so small, that it's almost impossible to attribute normal volcanic effects as a causal link, particularly in the noise of so many other drivers.
     
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  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The key for Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Pinatubo (1991) was SO2: quantity and height (>15-25km)
    - El Chichon around 7M tons of SO2
    - Pinatubo around 17M tons of SO2
    - Agung 1963/64... I couldn't find a figure, as there was no accurate measurement then, I'd say.

    The height is driven by the energy of the eruption.
     
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  42. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    So AGUNG was 1964..
    and
    quote
    ' 1964 was one of the best snow years this country has seen. ... The biggest 7-day gain in snow depth on record is 132.8cm and occurred from ...
    source
    http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-n...t-the-biggest-snowfalls-australias-ever-seen/

    The simple snap correlations look enticing don't they.
    Just makes you want to..'dig deeper'
     
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  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They look enticing, but it would be difficult to prove a causal link.
     
  44. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you have cooling, you get increased possibility of your precipitation being snow. I don't think anyone questions that.
    If your volcano is near the equator then the distribution of SO2 is likely to favour our latitudes.
    If the volcanism coincides with a strong el nino like with el chichon, no amount of cooling compensates for lack of precipitation potential.
    What may be worth hunting is any SH eruption especially high latitude and then if anyone has done some work on anecdotal SH climate eccentricities.
     
  45. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    my brain doesn't work that way.. Follow the trails, research and then predict.
    Massive job
    You may not get firm conclusions but may get some good indicators.
     
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  46. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Generalizations.... can be half truths
    [​IMG]
    http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/trendmap/rain/0112/aus/1970/latest.gif
    source link
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ=map=rain&area=aus&season=0112&period=1970
     
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can have causal links, correlations, and also spurious correlations:
    ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure what point you are making there. That trend is pretty consistent with expectations. If you have strong anomalies to that trend coinciding with eruptions , like Pinatubo, and not to anything else, perhaps then you are having some certainty.
     
  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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