There have been eruptions this year 7th May, 11th May, 25th May . 9th June 2019 a BIG ONE The eruption in June caught the attention of climate researchers Andrew Dessler Climate scientist at Texas A&M; author of Introduction to Modern Climate Change (http://www.andrewdessler.com )posted on twitter If this gets into the stratosphere and we get a big radiative perturbation to the planet's energy balance, it will be a great chance to test our understanding of the climate system. https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1137807610202210306 … #Sinabung volcano in North Sumatra, #Indonesia ..9th of June. ..................... https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/ https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=261080&vtab=Weekly .................. So l thought it would be a good opportunity to discuss this. Any current research underway?.and perhaps.past research. I am particularly interested in learning about the dynamical impacts of volcanoes on our southern hemisphere weather. So look forward to your comments and input and related www links
Great thread starter Crikey. I’m sure @Sandy @trappers and others will likely chime in. I won’t because I only know 80’s music and Internet stuff and nothing about volcanoes.
The eruption reached about 12000m... is that enough to get into the stratosphere that close to the equator?
Some previous discussion of volcanism https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/volcano-activity-and-its-effect-on-snowfalls.70508/
I would say not.... the tropopause is much higher than that...around 18000 metres at the equator. Eruptions at locations further from the equator have the better chance.
Ulawan had a decent, if short lived, go recently too, Sinabung has been churning slowly for some time now, amongst others.
Here is an older thread with some pertinent info https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/p...r-the-southern-hem-winter.46611/#post-1341524
quote from a monitoring site 'The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin is warning of a thick ash plume rising to a lofty 55,000 feet (16.7 km) — particulates ejected to altitudes above 32,800 feet (10 km), and into the stratosphere, have a direct cooling effect on the planet.' However a caveat here. This site is dedicated to monitoring global cooling. So need some confirmation crom a number of other sources source https://electroverse.net/sinabung-s...feet-16-7-km-solar-connection-cooling-effect/
Just moving some pertinent posts from there to here quote 'sandy' It's well known that the June 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo(Philippines) had a global impact on climate.(cooling) It hoisted around 5 cubic km of ash into the atmosphere, up to 40km high, and more importantly, about 15 million tonnes of SO2 (sulfur dioxide), which caused most of the cooling. The initial cooling effects were within three weeks, and lasted more than a year. It was the biggest volcanic cooling event since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. The 1815 eruption was Tambora, also in Indonesia #14 Sandy, Apr 26, 2015 and Doesn't Sulphur content in the ash have something to do with degree of affect on weather? Sulfur dioxide (gas) produced along with ash reflects sunlight high up in the atmosphere..
Maybe September, >5cubic km of ash and > 10M tonnes of SO2. - Pinatubo 10cubic km of ash and 17M tonnes of SO2
I have only just started my inquiry @piolet but thanks for the question , it gets the cogs turning. I went back to the records for Pinatuba 1991......Noting it was a NH eruption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century and l overlayed some spencer creek snow depth heights https://www.sbs.com.au/interactive/2015/kosciuszko-snow-depth/ The result is interesting enough that l am encouraged to pursue this correlation further 1990 , 1991 and 1992 were epic years . Over 2.5 m I suspect it could be an accumulation from multiple volcanoes over a short time period rather than just one 'boom' but also it could be from some other climate cor forcing,or even a 'combo'
I thought that NH and SH atmospheric circulations were mostly independent. So you would expect NH volcanoes to affect NH and SH volcanoes to affect the SH. However .. If the volcanic heat , gas and particulates get into the stratosphere.. l don't know if there are equatorial boundaries in the stratosphere like for instance the Inter tropical convergence zone at the surface troposphere layer. So .wind streams loaded with volcanic output .crossing from NH to SH may not be a problem. There are Hadley cells on either side of the equator at troposphere layer I will check ACCESS G tomorrow and investigate that. Thanks I am out of puff..today http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
and I will just post this research link here before l lose it.. The annual volcanic gas input into the atmosphere, in particular into the stratosphere: a global data set for the past 100 years Author links open overlay panelM.M.Halmera H.-U.SchminckeaH.-F.Grafb source https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0377027301003183
Mentions the distribution of ash via the jets so I presume he's not claiming there has been significant volcanic discharge into the stratosphere though it's hard to say from the scanty outline given. I'd say the effect he's observed and the cause he attributes it to, both need corroboration - until then....
A number of points: Pinatubo was a NH volcano, but the ash and SO2 covered the whole globe: This false colour shows the “Aerosol optical depth”, which is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere, the result of the June 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. You can see the effects became global after just 2 months, and persisted for at least 3 years. It decreased the global temperature by 0.6 degrees 1990 Aussie snow season was NOT affected by Pintubo, for obvious reasons.
This wiki has some suggestions on eruptions and effect by vei https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index to put into some perspective recent eruptions listed https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2019
But... there have been ongoing tropical eruptions for some time now. So maybe the culmination of the eruptions as affected the upper temp? by a small amount. It would only take a small amount to alter temp.
The number of small eruptions is mostly quite constant, no different to any other year(s) Cumulative eruptions don't have the same effect as one very large one. The main reason is that large eruptions have more energy, and that energy hoists ash and SO2 much higher into the atmosphere... if substantial amounts of SO2 hits the stratosphere, it cools the whole planet. For example, when you drive in summer time, you probably accumulate maybe one kg of bugs on your windshield over a couple of months..... but if you hit a 1kg bird at 100kph, it will break your windscreen!!
Crikey knows how o open a can of worms. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080315 Affects are not mesured by snowfall in oz or JP.
'One year after a tropical eruption, a significant El Niño‐like response is simulated except when the eruption occurs during a La Niña ' https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080315 Humm cool like twitter reply to myself.
Yes..,Electoverse and iceagenow are both global cooling investigators. So a strong bias there. Might be a good idea to get a list of recent big volcanic eruptions for the last couple of years. He suggests accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up .. Any links regarding recent volcanic eruptions and consequences if any to the climate ... dialogue from reputable' sources I would like to hear from who..?????
Please stay on topic. This is about volcanic eruptions affecting weather / climate. These posts would be better in this thread: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-heaviest-snow-australia-has-ever-seen.78760/#post-3349506
I'm not sure "accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up" makes sense in the longer term geological sense. Continents drift... rifts happen, and plates subduct, causing earthquakes and volcanos. In other words, something is always happening. For example, the 2011 M9.0 earthquake moved Japan 4m closer to North America, because the pressure built up by the Pacific plate subducting under Japan was released, and Japan rode over the top. But what it also does is release pressure in a subduction zone that holds magma well below the surface. Since then, Japan has experienced an increase in volcanic activity: The same happened with the M9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile 1960. also a subduction zone and lots of volcanic eruptions afterwards.
Gee. That is a fabulous resource you have posted there @Sandy. I am just trying to understand the colour scheme presented there on those OPTICAL DEPTH diagrams and what happened before and after the Pinatuba eruption. It would be a very handy resource to look at the current state of affairs regarding recent volcanic eruptions and 'optical depth' in 2019 Could you provide a link to your source. ..,
Thanks for your comments 'guys'.,There is heaps there to comment on or research. I will nibble away at each post in time. I haven't thrown the towel in. I am busy with the polar vortex thread atm
Not so , I read 35000ft plus for 3 of them and all in the tropics as they need to be to assist our snow I have an article somewhere of a study around 2012-14 of Oz snow affected by volcanoes , it went through the actual years and explained it in detail , will keep looking Crikey this May be the article rebirthed http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/ I have seen photos of buried chairs and tbar uplinks with snow 10 ft high on each side , they kept digging them out .. I cannot find thebpics now , I am sure they are in a property in Perisher
oh good.,I am not alone here thinking that volcanic eruptions can engage with climate drivers Thanks for your support.
There is no doubt that some types of volcanism have temporary global climatic effects. Agung El Chichon And Pinatubo All demonstrably had a cooling influence. Tambora anecdotally did. By contrast St Helens didn"t. Different bang and composition. Novarupta in 1912 almost certainly severely and temporarily disrupted the climate as well, but being high latitude the effect was limited to the NH, and was a very different set of climate mechanics to the near equatorial eruptions.
In my view, the main problem is that the Aussie snowfall is so variable and relatively low, and any single normal volcanic effect so small, that it's almost impossible to attribute normal volcanic effects as a causal link, particularly in the noise of so many other drivers.
The key for Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Pinatubo (1991) was SO2: quantity and height (>15-25km) - El Chichon around 7M tons of SO2 - Pinatubo around 17M tons of SO2 - Agung 1963/64... I couldn't find a figure, as there was no accurate measurement then, I'd say. The height is driven by the energy of the eruption.
So AGUNG was 1964.. and quote ' 1964 was one of the best snow years this country has seen. ... The biggest 7-day gain in snow depth on record is 132.8cm and occurred from ... source http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-n...t-the-biggest-snowfalls-australias-ever-seen/ The simple snap correlations look enticing don't they. Just makes you want to..'dig deeper'
If you have cooling, you get increased possibility of your precipitation being snow. I don't think anyone questions that. If your volcano is near the equator then the distribution of SO2 is likely to favour our latitudes. If the volcanism coincides with a strong el nino like with el chichon, no amount of cooling compensates for lack of precipitation potential. What may be worth hunting is any SH eruption especially high latitude and then if anyone has done some work on anecdotal SH climate eccentricities.
my brain doesn't work that way.. Follow the trails, research and then predict. Massive job You may not get firm conclusions but may get some good indicators.
Generalizations.... can be half truths http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/trendmap/rain/0112/aus/1970/latest.gif source link http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ=map=rain&area=aus&season=0112&period=1970
Not sure what point you are making there. That trend is pretty consistent with expectations. If you have strong anomalies to that trend coinciding with eruptions , like Pinatubo, and not to anything else, perhaps then you are having some certainty.
I have done a bit more thread mining and found a gerg treatment of the issue http://gergs.net/2015/02/volcanoes-and-snow/
