Technical Are the Mount Sinabung eruptions in 2019 ..affecting our weather?

[crikey]

There have been eruptions this year
7th May, 11th May, 25th May . 9th June 2019 a BIG ONE

The eruption in June caught the attention of climate researchers

Andrew Dessler
Climate scientist at Texas A&M; author of Introduction to Modern Climate Change (http://www.andrewdessler.com )posted on twitter

If this gets into the stratosphere and we get a big radiative perturbation to the planet's energy balance, it will be a great chance to test our understanding of the climate system.

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1137807610202210306 …

#Sinabung volcano in North Sumatra, #Indonesia ..9th of June.
.....................


https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=261080&vtab=Weekly
..................
So l thought it would be a good opportunity to discuss this.
Any current research underway?.and perhaps.past research.

I am particularly interested in learning about the dynamical impacts of volcanoes on our southern hemisphere weather.
So look forward to your comments and input and related www links

 

[Richard]

Great thread starter Crikey.

I’m sure @Sandy @trappers and others will likely chime in. I won’t because I only know 80’s music and Internet stuff and nothing about volcanoes.

 

[jonathanc]

There have been eruptions this year
7th May, 11th May, 25th May . 9th June 2019 a BIG ONE

The eruption in June caught the attention of climate researchers

Andrew Dessler
Climate scientist at Texas A&M; author of Introduction to Modern Climate Change (http://www.andrewdessler.com )posted on twitter

If this gets into the stratosphere and we get a big radiative perturbation to the planet's energy balance, it will be a great chance to test our understanding of the climate system.

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1137807610202210306 …

#Sinabung volcano in North Sumatra, #Indonesia ..9th of June.
.....................


https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=261080&vtab=Weekly
..................
So l thought it would be a good opportunity to discuss this.
Any current research underway?.and perhaps.past research.

I am particularly interested in learning about the dynamical impacts of volcanoes on our southern hemisphere weather.
So look forward to your comments and input and related www links

The eruption reached about 12000m... is that enough to get into the stratosphere that close to the equator?

 

[Majikthise]

Depends on the aerosols ejected, proximity to the equator is helpful

 

[Majikthise]

Some previous discussion of volcanism
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/volcano-activity-and-its-effect-on-snowfalls.70508/

 

[snowbarbie]

The eruption reached about 12000m... is that enough to get into the stratosphere that close to the equator?

I would say not.... the tropopause is much higher than that...around 18000 metres at the equator. Eruptions at locations further from the equator have the better chance.

 

[crikey]

Thats ok. Neither do l know anything about volcanoes.The learning curve begins today

Great thread starter Crikey.

I’m sure @Sandy @trappers and others will likely chime in. I won’t because I only know 80’s music and Internet stuff and nothing about volcanoes.

 

[jonathanc]

I would say not.... the tropopause is much higher than that...around 18000 metres at the equator. Eruptions at locations further from the equator have the better chance.

That was my understanding too

 

[piolet]

Ulawan had a decent, if short lived, go recently too, Sinabung has been churning slowly for some time now, amongst others.

 

[Majikthise]

Here is an older thread with some pertinent info
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/p...r-the-southern-hem-winter.46611/#post-1341524

 

[crikey]

Depends on the aerosols ejected, proximity to the equator is helpful

quote from a monitoring site
'The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin is warning of a thick ash plume rising to a lofty 55,000 feet (16.7 km) —

particulates ejected to altitudes above 32,800 feet (10 km), and into the stratosphere, have a direct cooling effect on the planet.'

However a caveat here. This site is dedicated to monitoring global cooling. So need some confirmation crom a number of other sources
source
https://electroverse.net/sinabung-s...feet-16-7-km-solar-connection-cooling-effect/

 

[crikey]

Some previous discussion of volcanism
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/volcano-activity-and-its-effect-on-snowfalls.70508/

Just moving some pertinent posts from there to here

quote 'sandy'
It's well known that the June 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo(Philippines) had a global impact on climate.(cooling)

It hoisted around 5 cubic km of ash into the atmosphere, up to 40km high, and more importantly, about 15 million tonnes of SO2 (sulfur dioxide), which caused most of the cooling. The initial cooling effects were within three weeks, and lasted more than a year.
It was the biggest volcanic cooling event since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. The 1815 eruption was Tambora, also in Indonesia

#14 Sandy, Apr 26, 2015
and
Doesn't Sulphur content in the ash have something to do with degree of affect on weather?
Sulfur dioxide (gas) produced along with ash reflects sunlight high up in the atmosphere..

 

[piolet]

So what's the optimum volcano to set off and timing for our skiing benefit?

 

[Sandy]

So what's the optimum volcano to set off and timing for our skiing benefit?

Maybe September, >5cubic km of ash and > 10M tonnes of SO2.
- Pinatubo 10cubic km of ash and 17M tonnes of SO2

 

[crikey]

So what's the optimum volcano to set off and timing for our skiing benefit?

I have only just started my inquiry @piolet
but thanks for the question , it gets the cogs turning.

I went back to the records for Pinatuba 1991......Noting it was a NH eruption
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century

and
l overlayed some spencer creek snow depth heights
https://www.sbs.com.au/interactive/2015/kosciuszko-snow-depth/

The result is interesting enough that l am encouraged to pursue this correlation further

1990 , 1991 and 1992 were epic years
. Over 2.5 m

I suspect it could be an accumulation from multiple volcanoes over a short time period rather than just one 'boom'
but also it could be from some other climate cor forcing,or even a 'combo'

 

[piolet]

Are better served by a southern indo volcano vs a Philippino one? Or that Chilean one?

 

[crikey]

Are better served by a southern indo volcano vs a Philippino one? Or that Chilean one?

I thought that NH and SH atmospheric circulations were mostly independent.
So you would expect NH volcanoes to affect NH and SH volcanoes to affect the SH.
However ..
If the volcanic heat , gas and particulates get into the stratosphere.. l don't know if there are equatorial boundaries in the stratosphere like for instance the Inter tropical convergence zone at the surface troposphere layer.
So .wind streams loaded with volcanic output .crossing from NH to SH may not be a problem.
There are Hadley cells on either side of the equator at troposphere layer

I will check ACCESS G tomorrow and investigate that. Thanks
I am out of puff..today
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

 

[crikey]

and
I will just post this research link here before l lose it..
The annual volcanic gas input into the atmosphere, in particular into the stratosphere: a global data set for the past 100 years
Author links open overlay panelM.M.Halmera
H.-U.SchminckeaH.-F.Grafb
source
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0377027301003183

 

[Reetro]

YES
http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/

 

[crikey]

A line of inquiry

volcanic feedback loop

 

[snowbarbie]

A line of inquiry

volcanic feedback loop

Mentions the distribution of ash via the jets so I presume he's not claiming there has been significant volcanic discharge into the stratosphere though it's hard to say from the scanty outline given. I'd say the effect he's observed and the cause he attributes it to, both need corroboration - until then....

 

[Sandy]

I have only just started my inquiry @piolet
but thanks for the question , it gets the cogs turning.

I went back to the records for Pinatuba 1991......Noting it was a NH eruption
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century

and
l overlayed some spencer creek snow depth heights
https://www.sbs.com.au/interactive/2015/kosciuszko-snow-depth/

The result is interesting enough that l am encouraged to pursue this correlation further

1990 , 1991 and 1992 were epic years
. Over 2.5 m

I suspect it could be an accumulation from multiple volcanoes over a short time period rather than just one 'boom'
but also it could be from some other climate cor forcing,or even a 'combo'

I thought that NH and SH atmospheric circulations were mostly independent.
So you would expect NH volcanoes to affect NH and SH volcanoes to affect the SH.
However ..
If the volcanic heat , gas and particulates get into the stratosphere.. l don't know if there are equatorial boundaries in the stratosphere like for instance the Inter tropical convergence zone at the surface troposphere layer.
So .wind streams loaded with volcanic output .crossing from NH to SH may not be a problem.
There are Hadley cells on either side of the equator at troposphere layer

I will check ACCESS G tomorrow and investigate that. Thanks
I am out of puff..today
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

A number of points:
Pinatubo was a NH volcano, but the ash and SO2 covered the whole globe:
This false colour shows the “Aerosol optical depth”, which is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere, the result of the June 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. You can see the effects became global after just 2 months, and persisted for at least 3 years. It decreased the global temperature by 0.6 degrees

1990 Aussie snow season was NOT affected by Pintubo, for obvious reasons.

 

[DiscoStuAU]

A line of inquiry

volcanic feedback loop

[mod note - keep it civil]

Avoid.

 

[snowbarbie]

This wiki has some suggestions on eruptions and effect by vei
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index
to put into some perspective recent eruptions listed
https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2019

 

[Reetro]

Mentions the distribution of ash via the jets so I presume he's not claiming there has been significant volcanic discharge into the stratosphere though it's hard to say from the scanty outline given. I'd say the effect he's observed and the cause he attributes it to, both need corroboration - until then....

But... there have been ongoing tropical eruptions for some time now. So maybe the culmination of the eruptions as affected the upper temp? by a small amount. It would only take a small amount to alter temp.

 

[piolet]

But... there have been ongoing tropical eruptions for some time now. So maybe the culmination of the eruptions as affected the upper temp? by a small amount. It would only take a small amount to alter temp.

They have mostly been low-level - sub 10,000'
Ulawan is the only high (ish) level recently I think

 

[Sandy]

But... there have been ongoing tropical eruptions for some time now. So maybe the culmination of the eruptions as affected the upper temp? by a small amount. It would only take a small amount to alter temp.

The number of small eruptions is mostly quite constant, no different to any other year(s)

Cumulative eruptions don't have the same effect as one very large one. The main reason is that large eruptions have more energy, and that energy hoists ash and SO2 much higher into the atmosphere... if substantial amounts of SO2 hits the stratosphere, it cools the whole planet.

For example, when you drive in summer time, you probably accumulate maybe one kg of bugs on your windshield over a couple of months..... but if you hit a 1kg bird at 100kph, it will break your windscreen!!

 

[User has resigned]

Crikey knows how o open a can of worms.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080315

Affects are not mesured by snowfall in oz or JP.

 

[User has resigned]

'One year after a tropical eruption, a significant El Niño‐like response is simulated except when the eruption occurs during a La Niña '
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080315
Humm cool like twitter reply to myself.

 

[crikey]

Mentions the distribution of ash via the jets so I presume he's not claiming there has been significant volcanic discharge into the stratosphere though it's hard to say from the scanty outline given. I'd say the effect he's observed and the cause he attributes it to, both need corroboration - until then....

Yes..,Electoverse and iceagenow are both global cooling investigators. So a strong bias there.
Might be a good idea to get a list of recent big volcanic eruptions for the last couple of years.
He suggests accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up ..
Any links regarding recent volcanic eruptions and consequences if any to the climate ...
dialogue from reputable' sources
I would like to hear from who..?????

 

[Sandy]

YES
http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/

@Ret-ro
I Have only just read that article you posted from 'mountainwatch'.,I must say l really enjoyed it. I just love his documentation of the 5 best ski seasons in Australia.So thanks again.

Please stay on topic. This is about volcanic eruptions affecting weather / climate.

These posts would be better in this thread:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-heaviest-snow-australia-has-ever-seen.78760/#post-3349506

 

[Sandy]

Yes..,Electoverse and iceagenow are both global cooling investigators. So a strong bias there.
Might be a good idea to get a list of recent big volcanic eruptions for the last couple of years.
He suggests accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up ..
Any links regarding recent volcanic eruptions and consequences if any to the climate ...
dialogue from reputable' sources
I would like to hear from who..?????

I'm not sure "accumulations of volcanic matter have been building up" makes sense in the longer term geological sense.
Continents drift... rifts happen, and plates subduct, causing earthquakes and volcanos. In other words, something is always happening.

For example, the 2011 M9.0 earthquake moved Japan 4m closer to North America, because the pressure built up by the Pacific plate subducting under Japan was released, and Japan rode over the top.
But what it also does is release pressure in a subduction zone that holds magma well below the surface. Since then, Japan has experienced an increase in volcanic activity:

The same happened with the M9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile 1960. also a subduction zone and lots of volcanic eruptions afterwards.

 

[crikey]

A number of points:
Pinatubo was a NH volcano, but the ash and SO2 covered the whole globe:
This false colour shows the “Aerosol optical depth”, which is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere, the result of the June 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. You can see the effects became global after just 2 months, and persisted for at least 3 years. It decreased the global temperature by 0.6 degrees

1990 Aussie snow season was NOT affected by Pintubo, for obvious reasons.

Gee. That is a fabulous resource you have posted there @Sandy.
I am just trying to understand the colour scheme presented there on those OPTICAL DEPTH diagrams and what happened before and after the Pinatuba eruption.
It would be a very handy resource to look at the current state of affairs regarding recent volcanic eruptions and 'optical depth' in 2019
Could you provide a link to your source. ..,

 

[Sandy]

Gee. That is a fabulous resource you have posted there @Sandy.
I am just trying to understand the colour scheme presented there on those OPTICAL DEPTH diagrams and what happened before and after the Pinatuba eruption.
It would be a very handy resource to look at the current state of affairs regarding recent volcanic eruptions and 'optical depth' in 2019
Could you provide a link to your source. ..,

From NASA:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo

 

[crikey]

Please stay on topic. This is about volcanic eruptions affecting weather / climate.

These posts would be better in this thread:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-heaviest-snow-australia-has-ever-seen.78760/#post-3349506

I have deleted that post..

 

[Sandy]

I have deleted that post..

No need to delete. Just pointing you (and others) to a better place to post it.

 

[crikey]

Thanks for your comments 'guys'.,There is heaps there to comment on or research. I will nibble away at each post in time.
I haven't thrown the towel in.
I am busy with the polar vortex thread atm

 

[Reetro]

They have mostly been low-level - sub 10,000'
Ulawan is the only high (ish) level recently I think

Not so , I read 35000ft plus for 3 of them and all in the tropics as they need to be to assist our snow

I have an article somewhere of a study around 2012-14 of Oz snow affected by volcanoes , it went through the actual years and explained it in detail , will keep looking

Crikey this May be the article rebirthed

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/

I have seen photos of buried chairs and tbar uplinks with snow 10 ft high on each side , they kept digging them out ..

I cannot find thebpics now , I am sure they are in a property in Perisher

 

[piolet]

Not so , I read 35000ft plus for 3 of them and all in the tropics as they need to be to assist our snow

I have an article somewhere of a study around 2012-14 of Oz snow affected by volcanoes , it went through the actual years and explained it in detail , will keep looking

Which/when?

 

[crikey]

Not so , I read 35000ft plus for 3 of them and all in the tropics as they need to be to assist our snow

I have an article somewhere of a study around 2012-14 of Oz snow affected by volcanoes , it went through the actual years and explained it in detail , will keep looking

Crikey this May be the article rebirthed

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/

I have seen photos of buried chairs and tbar uplinks with snow 10 ft high on each side , they kept digging them out ..

I cannot find thebpics now , I am sure they are in a property in Perisher

oh good.,I am not alone here thinking that volcanic eruptions can engage with climate drivers
Thanks for your support.

 

[Majikthise]

There is no doubt that some types of volcanism have temporary global climatic effects.
Agung
El Chichon
And
Pinatubo
All demonstrably had a cooling influence.
Tambora anecdotally did.
By contrast St Helens didn"t. Different bang and composition.
Novarupta in 1912 almost certainly severely and temporarily disrupted the climate as well, but being high latitude the effect was limited to the NH, and was a very different set of climate mechanics to the near equatorial eruptions.

 

[Sandy]

Not so , I read 35000ft plus for 3 of them and all in the tropics as they need to be to assist our snow

I have an article somewhere of a study around 2012-14 of Oz snow affected by volcanoes , it went through the actual years and explained it in detail , will keep looking

Crikey this May be the article rebirthed

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/historic-snowfalls-the-top-5-best-australian-snow-years/

I have seen photos of buried chairs and tbar uplinks with snow 10 ft high on each side , they kept digging them out ..

I cannot find thebpics now , I am sure they are in a property in Perisher

In my view, the main problem is that the Aussie snowfall is so variable and relatively low, and any single normal volcanic effect so small, that it's almost impossible to attribute normal volcanic effects as a causal link, particularly in the noise of so many other drivers.

 

[Sandy]

There is no doubt that some types of volcanism have temporary global climatic effects.
Agung
El Chichon
And
Pinatubo
All demonstrably had a cooling influence.
Tambora anecdotally did.
By contrast St Helens didn"t. Different bang and composition.
Novarupta in 1912 almost certainly severely and temporarily disrupted the climate as well, but being high latitude the effect was limited to the NH, and was a very different set of climate mechanics to the near equatorial eruptions.

The key for Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Pinatubo (1991) was SO2: quantity and height (>15-25km)
- El Chichon around 7M tons of SO2
- Pinatubo around 17M tons of SO2
- Agung 1963/64... I couldn't find a figure, as there was no accurate measurement then, I'd say.

The height is driven by the energy of the eruption.

 

[crikey]

The key for Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Pinatubo (1991) was SO2: quantity and height (>15-25km)
- El Chichon around 7M tons of SO2
- Pinatubo around 17M tons of SO2
- Agung 1963/64... I couldn't find a figure, as there was no accurate measurement then, I'd say.

The height is driven by the energy of the eruption.

So AGUNG was 1964..
and
quote
' 1964 was one of the best snow years this country has seen. ... The biggest 7-day gain in snow depth on record is 132.8cm and occurred from ...
source
http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-n...t-the-biggest-snowfalls-australias-ever-seen/

The simple snap correlations look enticing don't they.
Just makes you want to..'dig deeper'

 

[Sandy]

So AGUNG was 1964..
and
quote
' 1964 was one of the best snow years this country has seen. ... The biggest 7-day gain in snow depth on record is 132.8cm and occurred from ...
source
http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-n...t-the-biggest-snowfalls-australias-ever-seen/

The simple snap correlations look enticing don't they.
Just makes you want to..'dig deeper'

They look enticing, but it would be difficult to prove a causal link.

 

[Majikthise]

If you have cooling, you get increased possibility of your precipitation being snow. I don't think anyone questions that.
If your volcano is near the equator then the distribution of SO2 is likely to favour our latitudes.
If the volcanism coincides with a strong el nino like with el chichon, no amount of cooling compensates for lack of precipitation potential.
What may be worth hunting is any SH eruption especially high latitude and then if anyone has done some work on anecdotal SH climate eccentricities.

 

[crikey]

They look enticing, but it would be difficult to prove a causal link.

my brain doesn't work that way.. Follow the trails, research and then predict.
Massive job
You may not get firm conclusions but may get some good indicators.

 

[crikey]

If you have cooling, you get increased possibility of your precipitation being snow. I don't think anyone questions that.
If your volcano is near the equator then the distribution of SO2 is likely to favour our latitudes.
If the volcanism coincides with a strong el nino like with el chichon, no amount of cooling compensates for lack of precipitation potential.
What may be worth hunting is any SH eruption especially high latitude and then if anyone has done some work on anecdotal SH climate eccentricities.

Generalizations.... can be half truths

http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/trendmap/rain/0112/aus/1970/latest.gif
source link
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ=map=rain&area=aus&season=0112&period=1970

 

[Sandy]

my brain doesn't work that way.. Follow the trails, research and then predict.
Massive job
You may not get firm conclusions but may get some good indicators.

You can have causal links, correlations, and also spurious correlations:

 

[Majikthise]

Generalizations.... can be half truths

http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/trendmap/rain/0112/aus/1970/latest.gif
source link
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ=map=rain&area=aus&season=0112&period=1970

Not sure what point you are making there. That trend is pretty consistent with expectations. If you have strong anomalies to that trend coinciding with eruptions , like Pinatubo, and not to anything else, perhaps then you are having some certainty.

 

[Majikthise]

I have done a bit more thread mining and found a gerg treatment of the issue

http://gergs.net/2015/02/volcanoes-and-snow/